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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Paolo Veneri |
| Abstract: | This paper presents an analysis of urban spatial structure and its trends in the OECD between 2001 and 2011. It does so by using a standardised definition of urban areas in 29 OECD countries as composed of high density cores and their respective commuting zones. While urban population is growing everywhere, the way in which populations locate throughout the urban space differs across OECD cities and countries. The prevalent trend is an increasing dispersion of the population, with growth taking place outside existing centres. However, in specific countries, there are cities experiencing a higher growth in their central cores, while others are strengthening their polycentric structures. Overall, the population has grown more in relatively low-density locations close to the main centre, but outside it. Closeness to sub-centres also proves to be a strong advantage for growth and suggests the emergence of new centralities shaping urban spatial structures. |
| Keywords: | polycentricity, Urban spatial structure, suburbanization, sprawl |
| JEL: | R10 R12 R14 |
| Date: | 2015–04–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:govaab:2015/13-en&r=ure |
| By: | Hanming Fang; Quanlin Gu; Wei Xiong; Li-An Zhou |
| Abstract: | We construct housing price indices for 120 major cities in China in 2003-2013 based on sequential sales of new homes within the same housing developments. By using these indices and detailed information on mortgage borrowers across these cities, we find enormous housing price appreciation during the decade, which was accompanied by equally impressive growth in household income, except in a few first-tier cities. While bottom-income mortgage borrowers endured severe financial burdens by using price-to-income ratios over eight to buy homes, their participation in the housing market remained steady and their mortgage loans were protected by down payments commonly in excess of 35 percent. As such, the housing market is unlikely to trigger an imminent financial crisis in China, even though it may crash with a sudden stop in the Chinese economy and act as an amplifier of the initial shock. |
| JEL: | R3 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21112&r=ure |
| By: | Andersson , Tommy (Department of Economics, Lund University); Ehlers, Lars (Département de sciences économiques, Université de Montréal); Svensson , Lars-Gunnar (Department of Economics, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores a housing market with an existing tenant in each house and where the existing tenants initially rent their houses. The idea is to identify equilibrium prices for the housing market given the prerequisite that a tenant can buy any house on the housing market, including the one that he currently is possessing, or continue renting the house he currently is occupying. The main contribution is the identification of an individually rational, equilibrium selecting, and group non-manipulable price mechanism in a restricted preference domain that contains almost all preference profiles. In this restricted domain, the identified mechanism is the equilibrium selecting mechanism that transfers the maximum number of ownerships to the existing tenants. We also argue that the theoretical model represents an extension and an improvement of the U.K. Housing Act 1980 whose main objective is to transfer the ownership of the houses to the existing tenants. |
| Keywords: | Existing tenants; equilibrium; minimum equilibrium prices; maximum trade; group non-manipulability; dynamic price process |
| JEL: | C71 C78 D71 D78 |
| Date: | 2015–04–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lunewp:2015_012&r=ure |
| By: | Youjin Hahn; Liang Choon Wang; Hee-Seung Yang |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of school autonomy using a randomized natural experiment in Seoul. Private and public schools subject to the equalization policy in Seoul admit students assigned randomly to them, receive equal government funding, charge identical fees, and use similar curricula, while private schools have greater flexibility in personnel decisions, and their principals and teachers face stronger incentives to perform. We find that private high schools have on average fewer violent incidents per student, a higher four-year college entrance rate, and better test scores. The effects appear to channel through the within-school dispersions of teacher salary and types. |
| Keywords: | Private schools, public schools, randomization, school autonomy, wage dispersion, workforce heterogeneity |
| JEL: | I21 I22 J24 |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mos:moswps:2014-48&r=ure |
| By: | Ylenia Brilli (European University Institute); Marco Tonello (Bank of Italy) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the contemporaneous effect of education on adolescent crime by exploiting the variation in crime rates between different cohorts and at different ages that followed a reform that raised the school-leaving age in Italy. A 1 percentage-point increase of the enrollment rate reduces adolescent crime by 1.3 per cent in the North of Italy but increases it by 3.9 per cent in the South. The crime-reducing effect depends mainly on incapacitation (i.e. adolescents stay in school instead of on the street); the crime-increasing effect is consistent with a channel of criminal capital accumulation, operating through social interactions and organized-crime networks. |
| Keywords: | adolescent crime, school enrollment, incapacitation, human capital |
| JEL: | I20 I28 J13 K42 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:wptemi:td_1008_15&r=ure |
| By: | Michal Bernard Pietrzak (Nicolaus Copernicus University) |
| Abstract: | According to Tobler’s first law of geography, one of the key issues in doing the regional research is considering spatial location. Therefore, the article presents a proposal for modifying the TOPSIS method, which allows the spatial dependence to be considered in the research. The composite index calculated by means of the modified TOPSIS method allows to determine the trend in the level of the development of the phenomenon under study, assuming the impact of the spatial mechanisms. The TOPSIS method defined in that way has been applied in the spatial analysis of the situation on the labour market in Poland. |
| Keywords: | regional research, spatial econometrics, spatial dependence, TOPSIS method |
| JEL: | C21 E24 J01 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pes:wpaper:2015:no111&r=ure |
| By: | Böhme, René; Warsewa, Günter |
| Abstract: | Die explorative Studie analysiert die Einführung von "Urban Improvement Districts" (Sammelbegriff für Innovationsquartiere, Housing Improvement Districts, Neighbourhood Improvement Districts, Eigentümer-Standort-Gemeinschaften, lokale Bürgeretats etc.) in drei deutschen Großstädten und bilanziert erste Er-fahrungen mit diesem in Deutschland neuen Instrument partizipativer Stadtgestaltung. Angelehnt an das Konzept der "Business Improvement Districts" geht es dabei darum, in kleinräumig eingegrenzten Stadtgebieten eine regulierte Möglichkeit zu schaffen, Bürger, Wohnungseigentümer und weitere Akteure politisch und finanziell an der Entwicklung ihres Quartiers zu beteiligen; mit anderen Worten: Bürger verstärkt an der Finanzierung von Stadtgestaltung zu beteiligen und ihnen im Gegenzug dafür mehr Verantwortung und Entscheidungskompetenzen einzuräumen. Insofern geht dieses Instrument deutlich über die herkömmlichen Beteiligungsangebote in der kommunalpolitischen Praxis hinaus. In drei Fallstudien wurden realisierte bzw. in der Einführung befindliche Beispiele und die dabei gemachten Erfahrungen vergleichend untersucht. Insbesondere wurde danach gefragt, welche Auswirkungen auf die Strukturen lokaler Governance zu beobachten sind. Die Ergebnisse geben Auskunft über die Handlungsfähigkeit der beteiligten Akteure, die Wechselwirkungen zwischen organisatorischer und inhaltlicher Effizienz sowie die Bearbeitung von demokratischen Legitimations- und Partizipationsproblemen in derartigen Prozessen. Die Studie kommt im Vergleich der Fallstudien zu dem Ergebnis, dass "Urban Improvement Districts" als Instrumente einer kleinteiligen und beteiligungsorientierten städtischen Governance vor allem dann neue Handlungskapazitäten erschließen können, wenn sie eng mit den Strukturen und Verfahren der formellen Kommunalpolitik verzahnt werden. |
| Abstract: | The exploratory study examines the implementation of Urban Improvement Districts (umbrella term for Innovationsquartiere, Housing Improvement Districts, Neighbourhood Improvement Districts, Eigentümer-Standort-Gemeinschaften, lokale Bürgeretats etc.) in three German cities and makes up a balance of ef-fects identified in practical experiences with this new instrument of participative urban design. According to the concept of Business Improvement Districts, citizens, real estate owners and further actors should participate politically and financially to the costs of neighbourhood developments; or, in other words: more responsibilities and competencies for the citizens go together with an increasing involvement in financing sustainable urban modernization and development. This instrument exceeds the usual opportunities for participation offered in the management of local government and municipalities. Within the research pro-ject three case studies representing different constellations of conditions were carried out and compared to unveil how this new instrument of local policy affects spatial, social and political structures in cities. At the heart of the study are the effects on the structure of local governance. The results provide information about public and private sector capabilities and the interrelation between organizational and content-related efficiency. Finally, the report points out, how the various involved actors deal with emerging prob-lems of legitimation and participation in such processes. According to our results Urban Improvement Districts can be useful instruments of a small scale, partici-patory approach of city governance. They seem to be an appropriate arrangement to unlock additional capacities to act at the local level of politics, particularly if they are closely connected to the formal struc-tures of local politics. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iawsch:182014&r=ure |
| By: | Elena Vakulenko (-) |
| Abstract: | We analyze the impact of migration on wage, income and the unemployment rate. Using the official Russian statistical database from 1995 to 2010, we calculate a dynamic panel data model with spatial effects. There is a positive spatial effect for wage, income and unemployment rate. There is no significant impact of migration on the unemployment rate. We find a negative relationship between net internal migration and both wages and income, which is explained by the positive effect of emigration and negative effect of immigration for income. However, the migration benefits are not big enough to make a difference on the Gini index across regions. We conclude that migration does not affect the regional -convergence of economic indicators. |
| Keywords: | convergence, migration, wage, income, unemployment rate, spatial dynamic panel data models |
| JEL: | R23 C23 |
| Date: | 2015–03–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crj:dpaper:6_2015&r=ure |
| By: | Abdulkadiroğlu, Atila (Duke University); Angrist, Joshua (MIT); Hull, Peter D. (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Pathak, Parag A. (MIT) |
| Abstract: | Lottery estimates suggest oversubscribed urban charter schools boost student achievement markedly. But these estimates needn't capture treatment effects for students who haven't applied to charter schools or for students attending charters for which demand is weak. This paper reports estimates of the effects of charter school attendance on middle-schoolers in charter takeovers in New Orleans and Boston. Takeovers are traditional public schools that close and then re-open as charter schools. Students enrolled in schools designated for closure are eligible for "grandfathering" into the new schools; that is, they are guaranteed seats. We use this fact to construct instrumental variables estimates of the effects of passive charter attendance: the grandfathering instrument compares students at schools designated for takeover with students who appear similar at baseline and who were attending similar schools not yet closed, while adjusting for possible violations of the exclusion restriction in such comparisons. Estimates for a large sample of takeover schools in the New Orleans Recovery School District show substantial gains from takeover enrollment. In Boston, where we can compare grandfathering and lottery estimates for a middle school, grandfathered students see achievement gains at least as large as the gains for students assigned seats in lotteries. A non-charter Boston turnaround intervention that had much in common with the charter treatment generates gains as large as those seen for takeovers, but other more modest turnaround interventions produce much smaller effects. |
| Keywords: | education production, education reform, instrumental variables, compliers |
| JEL: | I21 I28 J24 C26 C36 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8985&r=ure |
| By: | Christian Hilber |
| Abstract: | Housing affordability is a key concern of an ever-larger fraction of UK voters who are crammed into artificially limited space. At the same time, a lot of wealth lies in housing assets and there are many vested interests in keeping things this way, such as current homeowners and private landlords. Substantive reforms could solve the housing crisis, but politicians of all stripes back away from such reforms out of fear of being demonised by the vested interests. Instead, proposed policies tend to tackle the symptoms - rather than the causes - of the UK's housing affordability crisis. |
| Keywords: | housing, planning, policies, #ElectionEconomics |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepeap:033&r=ure |
| By: | Sanne Zwart |
| Abstract: | Housing conditions in Belgium are among the best in OECD countries according to the Better Life Index, as dwellings are of high quality and large, and housing costs are average. However, the steep increase in house prices since 2003 has put market access for first-time buyers under pressure. Housing affordability is also deteriorating for the poor, as demand for social housing has not been met while the private rental market has become expensive. As a result, access to housing is at risk of becoming less equitable if the young and poorer people are priced out. Affordability for poorer people could be improved by expanding the regional rental allowance schemes. In parallel, scaling down the disproportional support for homeownership would free up public resources and reduce the bias towards homeownership. Other challenges to the efficiency of the housing market are posed by the high level of greenhouse gas emissions due to the old age of the housing stock and the low residential mobility, which harms the labour market and contributes to congestion and air pollution. To maintain an efficient housing market, policies should aim at increasing building densities in residential areas. Tilting taxation from transaction to recurrent taxes would lower barriers for residential mobility and contribute to labour market flexibility. This Working Paper relates to the 2015 OECD Economic Survey of Belgium (www.oecd.org/eco/surveys/economic-survey-belgium.htm)<P>Préserver l'efficacité et l'équité sur le marché du logement en Belgique<BR>Selon l’Indicateur du vivre mieux, les conditions de logement en Belgique sont parmi les meilleures de la zone OCDE : les habitations sont grandes et de bonne qualité et les coûts de logement se situent dans la moyenne. Cependant, la forte hausse des prix de l’immobilier enregistrée depuis 2003 rend l’achat de plus en plus difficile pour les primo-accédants. La capacité financière d’accès au logement se dégrade également pour les pauvres, dans la mesure où l’offre de logements sociaux est insuffisante pour répondre à la demande et le marché locatif privé est devenu cher. Par conséquent l’accès au marché du logement pourrait devenir moins équitable si les jeunes et les pauvres en sont exclus à cause des prix. Il est possible d’améliorer l’accès des personnes pauvres au logement en développant les systèmes d’allocations de logement régionaux pour locataires. Parallèlement, la réduction du soutien à l’accession à la propriété, actuellement disproportionné, libérerait des ressources publiques et atténuerait le biais en faveur de la propriété de la résidence principale. L’efficacité du marché du logement est confrontée à d’autres défis : le niveau élevé des émissions de gaz à effet de serre, dû à l’ancienneté de l’habitat, et la faible mobilité résidentielle, qui pénalise le marché du travail et contribue à l’encombrement routier et à la pollution atmosphérique. Pour préserver l’efficacité du marché du logement, il faudrait accroître les densités de construction dans les zones résidentielles. Une réorientation de la fiscalité des taxes sur les transactions immobilières vers les impôts récurrents contribuerait à abaisser les obstacles à la mobilité résidentielle et à améliorer la flexibilité du marché du travail. Ce Document de travail se rapporte à l’Étude économique de l’OCDE de la Belgique, 2015 (www.oecd.org/fr/eco/etudes/etude-econom ique-belgique.htm) |
| Keywords: | Belgium, mortgage markets, housing market, rental market, housing prices, residential energy efficiency, housing subsidies, property taxation, rental allowances, land use, housing policies, fiscalité immobilière, allocation logement, efficacité énergétique résidentielle, marché du logement, politiques du logement, aide au logement, aménagement du territoire, marché immobilier, marchés hypothécaires, prix des logements, Belgique |
| JEL: | G21 H24 H71 O18 Q53 R21 R31 R52 |
| Date: | 2015–04–23 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1208-en&r=ure |
| By: | Daniel da Mata; Uwe Deichmann; J. Vernon Henderson; Somik V. Lall; Hyoung G. Wang |
| Abstract: | TIn this paper, we examine the determinants of Brazilian city growth between 1970 and 2000. We consider a model of a city, which combines aspects of standard urban economics and the new economic geography literatures. For the empirical analysis, we constructed a dataset of 123 Brazilian agglomerations, and estimate aspects of the demand and supply side as well as a reduced form specification that describes city sizes and their growth. Our main findings are that increases in rural population supply, improvements in inter-regional transport connectivity and education attainment of the labor force have strong impacts on city growth. We also find that local crime and violence, measured by homicide rates impinge on growth. In contrast, a higher share of private sector industrial capital in the local economy stimulates growth. Using the residuals from the growth estimation, we also find that cities who better administer local land use and zoning laws have higher growth. Finally, our policy simulations show that diverting transport investments from large cities towards secondary cities do not provide significant gains in terms of national urban performance. O presente trabalho examina os determinantes do crescimento das cidades brasileiras entre 1970 e 2000. Nós consideramos um modelo de cidades que combina tanto aspectos da tradicional economia urbana quanto da literatura da nova geografia econômica. Para a análise empírica, nós construímos um banco de dados para 123 aglomerações urbanas no Brasil, e estimamos especificações de demanda e oferta, assim como uma forma reduzida que descreve o tamanho das cidades e seu crescimento. Os principais resultados do estudo são que acréscimos na oferta da população rural, melhorias na conexão de transporte inter-regional e aumento na educação da força de trabalho têm impactos positivos no crescimento das cidades. Averiguou-se também que crime e violência, mensurados pela taxa de mortalidade, são negativos ao crescimento das cidades. Por outro lado, uma maior parcela do setor privado no capital industrial na economia local estimula tal crescimento. Utilizando os resíduos das estimativas das equações de crescimento, nós verificamos que cidades melhores administradas em termos de regulação fundiária e leis de zoneamento apresentam um crescimento mais acentuado. Por fim, nossas estimativas de políticas públicas mostram que investimentos em transporte de cidades grandes em direção a cidades médias não fornecem ganhos significativos para a performance urbana nacional. |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:0155&r=ure |
| By: | Hiroshi Goto (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan); Keiya Minamimura (Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University) |
| Abstract: | To explain the links between population distribution and economic integration, we construct a spatial economics model with endogenous fertility. A higher population concentration increases real wages and child-raising costs, thus lowering the fertility rate. However, people migrate to more populated regions to obtain higher real wages. We show that mobility across regions results in more people flowing into highly populated regions, but lowers fertility rates there. The population growth path resembles a logistic curve in the early phase, but population decreases in the last phase. Additionally, economic integration leads to population concentration and decreases population size in the whole economy. |
| Keywords: | Population change, Migration, Agglomeration, Trade freeness |
| JEL: | F15 J13 R12 R23 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2015-17&r=ure |
| By: | Maria da Piedade Morais; Bruno de Oliveira Cruz |
| Abstract: | This paper seeks to estimate the demand for housing and urban services in the major Brazilian metropolitan areas (MAs), as a contribution for the formulation of public policies of urban development. The theoretical approach used is the hedonic prices model (Rosen, 1974), which relates price with the property characteristics. The data was obtained from the 1997 National Household Survey (Pnad), published by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE), encompassing 10 MAs. We have verified that the provision of proper housing and urban infrastructure services can significantly increase property prices in metropolitan areas, implying that such policies may have strong redistributive impacts and can be used to fight urban poverty in Brazil. Among the MAs studied, São Paulo presented the highest average rent, independently of the characteristics of the properties. The importance of the present study resides in trying to evaluate the impact of the governmental urban policies through regression analysis, what would allow policy makers to obtain more detailed information on the nature of housing demand – regarding the consumers’ preferences for the different attributes of the house and levels of provision of urban services - as well as on the capacity of cost-recovery, and the social impacts of the different housing, sanitation and urban development programs. O objetivo do presente artigo é fornecer uma estimativa da demanda por habitação e serviços urbanos nas principais regiões metropolitanas (RMs) brasileiras, como subsídio para a elaboração de políticas públicas na área de desenvolvimento urbano. A abordagem teórica utilizada é o modelo de preços hedônicos (Rosen, 1974), o qual relaciona o preço com as diferentes características do imóvel. Os dados utilizados derivam da Pesquisa Nacional de Amostras por Domicílio (Pnad) do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) para o ano de 1997, englobando dez RMs. Verificou-se que a provisão de serviços urbanos como água, esgoto e coleta de lixo pode aumentar significativamente o preço dos imóveis nas cidades brasileiras, o que implica que tais políticas podem ter forte impacto redistributivo. Entre as RMs estudadas, São Paulo apresentou os aluguéis mais elevados, independentemente das características dos imóveis. A importância do presente estudo reside em tentar avaliar o impacto das políticas urbanas por meio da análise de regressão, o que permitiria aos formuladores de política obter informações mais detalhadas sobre a natureza da demanda por habitação – com respeito às preferências dos consumidores pelos diferentes atributos e níveis de provisão dos serviços urbanos da moradia -, bem como sobre a capacidade de recuperação de custos e os impactos dos diferentes programas do governo na área de habitação, saneamento e desenvolvimento urbano. |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:0120&r=ure |
| By: | Maria da Piedade Morais; Bruno de Oliveira Cruz; Carlos Wagner de Albuquerque Oliveira |
| Abstract: | This paper seeks to analyze the set of characteristics that can explain the existence of slums (favelas) in Brazilian cities, based upon microdata from the 1999 edition of the National Household Survey (Pnad), published by the Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics (IBGE). The paper is divided in 2 main parts. In the first part, we make a brief description of the urbanization trends, the process of slum formation and the poverty profile in Brazil and present a survey of the empirical literature on social exclusion and spatial segregation. The second part of the article describes a logit regression designed to test the hypothesis if local, regional and personal attributes such as immigration, income level, household size, schooling, tenure conditions, gender, race, age, labor market insertion, sector of activity, city size and other locational variables are important to explain the existence of slums and residential segregation in the housing markets of the major Brazilian cities. Other concern of the paper is the nature of the relationship established between labor and housing markets, and the way in which discrimination and segmentation in both markets reinforce each other. By shedding some light on the causes and the nature of social discrimination and spatial segregation faced by slum-dwellers in Brazil (favelados), this study can aid policy makers to design more efficient urban and regional development policies in order to fight urban poverty in Brazil and in other developing countries. Este artigo pretende analisar o conjunto de características que podem explicar o surgimento de favelas nas cidades brasileiras, a partir dos microdados da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostras de Domicílio (Pnad) do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) para o ano de 1999. O artigo está dividido em 2 partes principais. Na primeira parte, faz-se uma breve descrição das tendências da urbanização, do processo de formação de favelas e do perfil da pobreza no Brasil e apresenta-se uma resenha da literatura empírica sobre exclusão social e segregação espacial. Na segunda parte, estima-se uma função logit para testar hipóteses se atributos locais, regionais e pessoais como migração, nível de renda, tamanho da família, escolaridade, regime de propriedade, gênero, raça, idade, posição no mercado de trabalho, setor de atividade, tamanho de cidade e outros fatores locacionais são importantes para explicar o surgimento de favelas e a existência de segregação espacial e exclusão social no mercado habitacional das principais cidades brasileiras. Outra preocupação do artigo é esclarecer a natureza das relações existentes entre os mercados de trabalho e de habitação e o modo pelo qual a discriminação e a segmentação em ambos os mercados se reforçam mutuamente. Ao tentar elucidar as causas e a natureza da discriminação social e da segregação espacial enfrentadas pelos moradores das favelas brasileiras (“favelados”), este estudo pode ser útil no desenho de políticas de Desenvolvimento Regional e Urbano mais eficazes no combate à pobreza urbana, tanto no Brasil quanto em outros países em desenvolvimento. |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:0122&r=ure |
| By: | Badi H. Baltagi (Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244); Long Liu (Department of Economics, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio) |
| Abstract: | This paper suggests random and fixed effects spatial two-stage least squares estimators for the generalized mixed regressive spatial autoregressive panel data model. This extends the generalized spatial panel model of Baltagi, Egger and Pfaffermayr (2013) by the inclusion of a spatial lag dependent variable. The estimation method utilizes the Generalized Moments method suggested by Kapoor, Kelejian, and Prucha (2007) for a spatial autoregressive panel data model. We derive the asymptotic distributions of these estimators and suggest a Hausman test a la Mutl and Pfaffermayr (2011) based on the difference between these estimators. Monte Carlo experiments are performed to investigate the performance of these estimators as well as the corresponding Hausman test. |
| Keywords: | Panel Data; Fixed Effects; Random Effects; Spatial Model; Hausman Test |
| JEL: | C12 C13 C23 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:max:cprwps:174&r=ure |
| By: | Rickman, Dan S. (Oklahoma State University); Wang, Hongbo (Oklahoma State University); Winters, John V. (Oklahoma State University) |
| Abstract: | Using the 3-year sample of the American Community Survey (ACS) for 2009 to 2011, we compute public school teacher salaries for comparison across U.S. states. Teacher salaries are adjusted for state differences in teacher characteristics, cost of living, household amenity attractiveness and federal tax rates. Salaries of non-teaching college graduates, defined as those with occupations outside of education, are used to adjust for state household amenity attractiveness. We then find that state differences in federal tax-adjusted teacher salaries relative those of other college graduates significantly affects the share of education majors that are employed as teachers at the time of the survey. |
| Keywords: | teachers, teacher salaries, teaching profession, teacher retention |
| JEL: | H75 I20 I28 J24 J31 R23 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8984&r=ure |
| By: | Alexandra Schwarz (Wuppertal Research Institute for the Economics of Education, University of Wuppertal); Stefan Brauckmann (Department of Instructional and School Development, Alpen-Adria-University Klagenfurt) |
| Abstract: | Concepts of new school governance did considerably change the role and responsibilities of school principals. Due to the shift in their role from administrator to manager, recent research tends to focus on management activity, but little is still known about the interrelation between changing contexts and management activities. In the present paper we propose to expand the school context to embrace the school-related environment, and we examine this broader context with respect to its impact on leadership activities. We illustrate our approach by combining German survey and administrative data to analyze the social composition of schools and their environment. Our results suggest that using administrative data to identify objective challenges to leadership improves the measurement of contextual conditions at school. |
| Keywords: | school leadership, school quality, disadvantaged areas |
| JEL: | I20 I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwu:schdps:sdp15003&r=ure |
| By: | Albert Park (Department of Economics, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology; Institute for Emerging Market Studies, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology); Xinzheng Shi (School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University); Xuehui An (National Center for Education Development Research, China Ministry of Education) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of high school quality on students’ educational attainment using a regression discontinuity research design based on entrance examination score thresholds that strictly determine admission to the best high schools. Using data from rural counties in Western China, we find that attending a magnet school significantly increases students’ college entrance examination scores and the probability of being admitted to college. |
| Keywords: | magnet high school, regression discontinuity design, academic performance |
| JEL: | I21 I28 O53 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hku:wpaper:201507&r=ure |
| By: | Braunerhjelm, Pontus (CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies, Royal Institute of Technology); Ding, Ding (CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies, Royal Institute of Technology); Thulin, Per (CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies, Royal Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | By utilising a Swedish unique, matched employer-employee dataset that has been pooled with firm-level patent application data, we provide new evidence that knowledge workers’ mobility has a positive and strongly significant impact on firm innovation output, as measured by firm patent applications. The effect is particularly strong for knowledge workers that have previously worked in a patenting firm (the learning-by-hiring effect), but firms losing a knowledge worker are also shown to benefit (the diaspora effect), albeit more weakly. Finally, the effect is more pronounced when the joining worker originates in another region. |
| Keywords: | Labour mobility; knowledge diffusion; innovation; social networks |
| JEL: | J24 O31 R23 |
| Date: | 2015–04–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cesisp:0403&r=ure |
| By: | Eiji Yamamura |
| Abstract: | An increasing number of works have addressed the socio-economic determinants of suicide. Social capital is a key factor in preventing suicide. However, little is known about the experience of suicide consideration using subjective values. From the viewpoint of suicide prevention, it is worth examining how people think of suicide. This paper attempts to examine the effect of social capital on suicide consideration based on individual-level data from Japan. Furthermore, the paper compares the effect of social capital between urban and non-urban areas. After controlling for various socio-economic factors, the major findings are that both individual-level social capital and social capital accumulated in onefs place of residence reduce the probability that one will consider suicide. After dividing the sample into urban and non-urban residents, the effect of social capital in onefs place of residence for urban residents is remarkably larger than for non-urban residents. In contrast, the effect of individual-level social capital disappears for urban residents, while the effect persists for non-urban residents. Overall, community-level social capital plays a more important role in deterring suicide for urban residents. |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:0933&r=ure |
| By: | Gihoon Hong; John McLaren |
| Abstract: | Most research on the effects of immigration focuses on the effects of immigrants as adding to the supply of labor. By contrast, this paper studies the effects of immigrants on local labor demand, due to the increase in consumer demand for local services created by immigrants. This effect can attenuate downward pressure from immigrants on non-immigrants' wages, and also benefit non-immigrants by increasing the variety of local services available. For this reason, immigrants can raise native workers' real wages, and each immigrant could create more than one job. Using US Census data from 1980 to 2000, we find considerable evidence for these effects: Each immigrant creates 1.2 local jobs for local workers, most of them going to native workers, and 62% of these jobs are in non-traded services. Immigrants appear to raise local non-tradables sector wages and to attract native-born workers from elsewhere in the country. Overall, it appears that local workers benefit from the arrival of more immigrants. |
| JEL: | F22 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21123&r=ure |
| By: | Elcyon Caiado Rocha Lima; Paulo Brígido Rocha Macedo |
| Abstract: | Spatial dependence results from the existence of spillover effects such as the impact of the price of one housing unit on the price of its adjacent neighbors. One way to account for spatial dependence is to specify spatial lag models in which a spatially lagged variable is assumed to play a role in explaining the variation of the original dependent variable. Most studies use a priori non-sample information in the construction of the spatial weights matrix which serves as a spatial lag operator. In contrast, this study assumes no a priori value for the spatial weights matrix in the estimation of spillover effects. We adopt a classical maximum likelihood approach and also a Bayesian Sampling-Importance-Resampling (SIR) procedure to estimate the weights matrix and the significance of spatial dependence. We apply the two estimation procedures to data on housing prices in the city of Belo Horizonte, Brazil, and compare the results obtained with these two techniques with the one derived by a priori fixing the weights. The analysis shows that the likelihood function of the weights matrix parameters has a well-defined peak, and the estimated distance-decay parameter is quite different from the standard a priori assumptions such as the “all-or-nothing” decay within the cut-off distance or the “inverse distance” adopted in the empirical literature. A existência de efeitos de “transbordamento”, como o impacto do preço de uma unidade residencial no preço de seus vizinhos adjacentes, caracteriza a chamada “dependência espacial”. Uma forma de se levar em conta a dependência espacial é especificar modelos de defasagem espacial nos quais se supõe que uma variável espacialmente defasada explica, pelo menos parcialmente, a variação da variável dependente original. A maioria dos estudos fixa a priori os parâmetros utilizados na construção da matriz de pesos espaciais que serve de operador da defasagem espacial. Em contraste, este trabalho não pressupõe qualquer valor a priori para os parâmetros da matriz de pesos espaciais na estimação de efeitos de transbordamento. Nós adotamos uma abordagem de máxima verossimilhança clássica e um procedimento bayesiano, Sampling–Importance–Resampling (SIR), para estimar os pesos da matriz e a significância da dependência espacial. Utilizamos dados de unidades residenciais da cidade de Belo Horizonte, e comparamos os resultados obtidos com o procedimento desenvolvido com aqueles derivados a partir da fixação a priori dos pesos espaciais. A análise mostra que a função de verossimilhança tem um pico bem definido, e o parâmetro de decaimento estimado é bastante diverso dos valores prefixados usualmente adotados na literatura empírica, como o decaimento “tudo-ou-nada” dentro da distância crítica ou o uso do “inverso da distância”. |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:0087&r=ure |
| By: | Camille Terrier |
| Abstract: | This paper tests if gender-discrimination in grading affects pupils' achievements and course choices. I use a unique dataset containing grades given by teachers, scores obtained anonymously by pupils at different ages, and their course choice during high school. Based on double-differences, the identification of the gender bias in grades suggests that girls benefit from a substantive positive discrimination in math but not in French. This bias is not explained by girls' better behavior and only marginally by their lower initial achievement. I then use the heterogeneity in teachers' discriminatory behavior to show that classes in which teachers present a high degree of discrimination in favor of girls are also classes in which girls tend to progress significantly more than boys, during the school year but also during the next four years. Teachers' biases also increase the relative probability that girls attend a general high school and chose science courses. |
| Keywords: | Gender; grading; discrimination; progress |
| JEL: | I21 J16 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:61696&r=ure |
| By: | Miquel Pellicer (GIGA Institute of Middle East Studies and SALDRU, School of Economics, University of Cape Town); Patrizio Piraino (School of Economics, University of Cape Town) |
| Abstract: | Little credible evidence exists on the effect of material resources on school quality in developing countries. This paper studies the impact of non-personnel funding on educational outcomes exploiting the peculiar way in which these resources are allocated in South Africa. Government funding follows quintiles constructed on the basis of school poverty scores. This creates discrete jumps in the allocation of funding and we use a regression discontinuity approach to analyze its effects on school outcomes at the end of high school. Our results show a small but positive effect of resources on student throughput during the last years of high school, and on the number of students writing the matriculation exam. However, additional resources do not translate into a higher number of successful exams, leading to an overall negative effect on pass rates. We suggest that thesefindings may have to do with schools reacting to the per-pupil nature of funding. |
| Keywords: | Non-personnel resources, education, South Africa |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ldr:wpaper:144&r=ure |
| By: | Daniel Avdic (CINCH – Health Economics Research Center) |
| Abstract: | The article analyzes to which extent residential proximity from an emergency hospital affects the probability of surviving an acute myocardial infarction (AMI). The critical time aspect in AMI treatment provides an ideal application for evaluating this proximity outcome hypothesis. Previous studies have encountered empirical difficulties relating to potential endogenous health-based spatial sorting of involved agents and data limitations on out-of-hospital mortality. Using policyinduced variation in hospital distance arising from plausibly exogenous emergency hospital closures in the highly regulated Swedish health care sector, and data on all AMI deaths in Sweden over two decades, estimation results show a clear, robust and gradually declining probability of surviving an AMI of about two percentage points (three percent) per additional ten kilometers distance from a hospital. Results further show that spatial sorting and sample selection from outof-hospital mortality are likely to significantly attenuate the distance effect unless accounted for. |
| Keywords: | myocardial infarction, geographical access, hospital closures, health policy, spatial sorting, self-selection, out-of-hospital mortality, causal effect |
| JEL: | C23 I14 I18 R41 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:duh:wpaper:1501&r=ure |
| By: | Fernando Rezende |
| Abstract: | Brazilian big cities have high needs but dispose of low means. This situation leads to a paradox: a higher dependence on the state and federal governments as compared with middle size and smaller cities with respect to the provision of urban and social services. Higher dependence means more submission to political alliances and less room for an effective social control on public spending. This paper explores some aspects of this particular situation, its main causes, and possible solutions. |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:0080&r=ure |
| By: | Badi H. Baltagi (Center for Policy Research, Maxwell School, Syracuse University, 426 Eggers Hall, Syracuse, NY 13244); Peter H. Egger (ETH Zurich); Michaela Kesina (ETH Zurich) |
| Abstract: | This paper assesses the role of intra-sectoral spillovers in total factor productivity across Chinese producers in the chemical industry. We use a rich panel data-set of 12,552 firms observed over the period 2004-2006 and model output by the firm as a function of skilled and unskilled labor, capital, materials, and total factor productivity, which is broadly defined. The latter is a composite of observable factors such as export market participation, foreign as well as public ownership, the extent of accumulated intangible assets, and unobservable total factor productivity. Despite the richness of our data-set, it suffers from the lack of time variation in the number of skilled workers as well as in the variable indicating public ownership. We introduce spatial spillovers in total factor productivity through contextual effects of observable variables as well as spatial dependence of the disturbances. We extend the Hausman and Taylor (1981) estimator to account for spatial correlation in the error term. This approach permits estimating the effect of time-invariant variables which are wiped out by the fixed effects estimator. While the original Hausman and Taylor (1981) estimator assumes homoskedastic error components, we provide spatial variants that allow for both homoskedasticity and heteroskedasticity. Monte Carlo results show, that our estimation procedure performs well in small samples. We find evidence of positive spillovers across chemical manufacturers and a large and significant detrimental effect of public ownership on total factor productivity. |
| Keywords: | Technology Spillovers, Spatial econometrics, Panel data econometrics, Firm-level productivity, Chinese firms |
| JEL: | C23 C31 D24 L65 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:max:cprwps:175&r=ure |
| By: | Maria da Piedade Morais |
| Abstract: | The objective of this article is to characterize the housing conditions in Brazilian urban areas during the 1990s, based upon housing and urban indicators derived from the 1992-1999 IBGE National Household Surveys (PNAD) microdata. The paper intends to be useful as a first attempt to systematize and analyze the available information on housing in Brazil, as a cornerstone to discuss the major trends and problems of the Brazilian housing sector, in order to subsidize the formulation of public policies and programs of housing and urban development. Section 2 discusses the main characteristics of housing that justify governmental intervention in housing markets. Section 3 depicts the housing conditions in Brazilian urban areas, emphasizing the housing situation of the poor and other vulnerable groups. Section 4 analyzes the main housing problems in Brazil, such as slums formation, tenure insecurity and housing and urban infrastructure deficits. Finally, section 5 presents the conclusions and suggestions for a future research agenda on housing in Brazil, urging for better targeting and integration between the housing policy and the macroeconomic and other sectorial and social policies of the government, at the federal, state and local levels. O objetivo deste trabalho é caracterizar as condições de moradia nas áreas urbanas brasileiras durante a década de 1990, com base em indicadores habitacionais e de desenvolvimento urbano construídos a partir dos microdados da Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domicílios (Pnad) do Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatística (IBGE) para o período 1992-1999. Este texto pretende ser útil como um primeiro esforço de sistematização da informação existente no que diz respeito à habitação no Brasil, como ponto de partida para discutir as tendências e os principais problemas do setor habitacional, com vistas a fornecer subsídios para a formulação de políticas e programas nas áreas de habitação e de desenvolvimento urbano. A seção 2 discute as principais características do bem habitação que justificam a intervenção do governo nos mercados habitacionais. A seção 3 mostra as condições de habitação nas áreas urbanas brasileiras, destacando as condições de moradia dos pobres e de outros grupos vulneráveis. A seção 4 analisa os principais problemas habitacionais brasileiros, tais como formação de favelas, informalidade da habitação, falta de segurança na posse e déficits de habitação e de serviços urbanos, entre outros. Finalmente, a seção 5 apresenta as principais conclusões e sugestões para uma futura agenda de pesquisa em Habitação no Brasil, mostrando a necessidade de uma melhor focalização e integração entre as políticas habitacionais, macroeconômicas e outras políticas setoriais e sociais do governo no nível federal, no estadual e no municipal. |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:0146&r=ure |
| By: | Tomasz Komornicki (Institute of Geography and Spatial Organization, Polish Academy of Sciences, Warsaw, Poland); Jacek Zaucha (Institute for Development, Sopot, Poland) |
| Abstract: | In the paper, the results of research on integration of various aspects of development in Polish voivodships are shown with a particular reference to territorial capital. An answer is sought to the question, “to what extent and how the Polish regions managed to successfully follow/implement the paradigm of territorial cohesion. For this purpose the findings of a questionnaire survey study, conducted with the offices responsible for a broadly understood development of voivodships were made use of. The research reveals that representatives of regional authorities are relatively well acquainted with issues relating to territorial cohesion, but their understanding of this concept is generally narrower than that found in theoretical studies. Territorial cohesion is rightly associated with conducting spatial policy, as well as with utilization of endogenous development factors. At the level of definition the majority of voivodships underline the role of endogenous factors for growth, but as regards the shape of their intraregional policy more traditional approach is widely prevalent. Regions see their internal spatial policy as nothing but delimitation of areas. This takes place based on negative criteria (referring to “problem areas” that were formerly identified). A lack of integrative approach is also typical. Territory fails to be treated as a subject of integrative policy, and, as well, as an opportunity that can be used to overcome the sectoral divisions. It is rather treated as a tool for achieving other goals. Simultaneously, however, an evolution in approach (forced by the EU regulations) is clearly visible, which forms the basis for more territorial-based policy on the regional level. |
| Keywords: | territorial capital, regional development |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R13 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iro:wpaper:1502&r=ure |
| By: | Monika Chobotová (Department of Business and Management, School of Business Administration, Silesian University); Zuzana Palová (Departament of Economics and Public Administration, School of Business Administration, Silesian University) |
| Abstract: | One of the main objectives of the European Union is decreasing of the differences (disparities) between European Union’s regions. The unemployment, employment, GDP, etc. belong to constantly monitored disparities. This paper is devoted to sometimes a little neglect disparities namely those in the social sphere. The aim of the paper is to measure regional disparities in the social sphere by two integrated indicators (health condition and social facilities) and point methods. The results of measuring of the regional disparities will be related to sector specialization. The measuring will be done in four regions of the Czech Republic– the Hradec Králové Region, the Pardubice Region, Ústí Region and the Moravian-Silesian Region in 2011. |
| Keywords: | regional disparities, health condition, social facilities, point method, localization quotient |
| JEL: | O18 P25 P48 R11 |
| Date: | 2015–04–21 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:opa:wpaper:0006&r=ure |
| By: | Nikolaos Antonakakis (Vienna University of Economics and Business, Department of Economics, Vienna, Austria); Christophe Andre (Economics Department, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | In this study we examine dynamic macroeconomic spillovers in the United States, with a particular focus on the stock market, housing and economic policy uncertainty (EPU). Based on monthly data over the period 1987M1 to 2014M11, our findings reveal the following features. First, the transmission of various types of shocks contributes significantly to economic uctuations in the United States. Second, spillovers show large variations over time. Third, in the wake of the global financial crisis, spillovers have been exceptionally high in historical perspective. In particular, we find large spillovers from EPU, as well as stock market and housing returns to other variables, in particular in ation, industrial production and the federal funds rate. These results illustrate the contagion from the housing and financial crisis to the real economy and the strong policy reaction to stabilise the economy. |
| Keywords: | Housing market, Spillover, Stock market, Variance decomposition, Vector autoregression, Economic policy uncertainty, US recession |
| JEL: | C32 E40 E50 G10 G20 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201521&r=ure |
| By: | Constantino Cronemberger Mendes; Maria da Conceição Sampaio de Sousa |
| Abstract: | In this paper we estimated the demand for local public spending for the Brazilian municipalities within a median voter’s framework. The median voter theorem provides a method of aggregating individual voter's demands to obtain community demand. The rationale for applying that framework came from the fact that in federal systems voter’s preferences are more likely to be reflected at the local level as the consumers of public services have a better knowledge of the benefits and costs of the local public expenditures. Results obtained are consistent with the theoretical background thus suggesting that this hypothesis might be useful to describe the demand for local public goods in Brazil. In particular, the use of quantile regression permitted to investigate the impacts of the conditioning variables on local public expenses across different expenditures classes thus allowing for heterogeneity across municipalities. Our results also suggest that the impact of the city size on the quality of club goods shows crowding effects as g is between zero and one. However, in the estimated models, marginal congestion slightly decreases with expenditure. This is a rather surprising result as one is tempted to conclude that the congestion effect should be higher on big cities. Yet, a more careful look shows the drawbacks of such interpretation. The indivisibilities preclude the provision of certain services in small towns, concentrating their provision on larger cities. Hence, the higher expenditures of those big cities reflect not only a crowding cost but also the fact that these towns offer a wide range of services when compared to the small ones. So, in Brazil, contrary to the traditional results, the reduced congestion effect along the spending classes reflect the predominance of the scale elements measured by the population elasticities over the price effects. Neste estudo, estimou-se a demanda para a despesa pública local nas municipalidades brasileiras dentro de uma abordagem do eleitor mediano. O teorema do eleitor mediano provê um método de agregação de demandas individuais para obter a demanda comunitária. A razão para o uso dessa abordagem advém do fato de que em sistemas federativos as preferências dos eleitores são mais bem representadas em nível local por meio dos consumidores desses serviços, que têm melhor conhecimento dos custos e benefícios das despesas públicas locais. Os resultados sugerem que o impacto do tamanho da cidade na qualidade de bens mostra efeitos de aglomeração entre zero e um. Contudo, o congestionamento marginal diminui com a despesa, resultado este surpreendente, uma vez que sugere que o efeito congestionamento deve ser mais elevado em cidades grandes. As indivisibilidades que impossibilitam a provisão de determinados serviços em cidades pequenas influenciam a concentração de suas provisões em cidades maiores. As despesas mais elevadas daquelas cidades grandes refletem não somente um custo de aglomeração, mas também o fato de que essas cidades oferecem uma escala maior de serviços. Assim, no Brasil, contrariamente aos resultados tradicionais, o efeito reduzido do congestionamento ao longo das classes da despesa reflete a predominância dos elementos da escala medidos pelas elasticidades da população sobre os efeitos do preço. |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:0134&r=ure |
| By: | Andrea Bellucci (Institute for Applied Economic Research (IAW), University of Tubingen, Germany); Alexander Borisov (University of Cincinnati, USA); Germana Giombini (Universit… di Urbino); Alberto Zazzaro (Universit… Politecnica delle Marche, MoFiR - Ancona, Italy, CSEF, Naples, Italy) |
| Abstract: | In this paper we empirically test the recent lender-based theory for the use of collateral in bank lending. Based on a proprietary dataset of loan contracts written by a local bank in competitive credit markets, we use the physical proximity between borrowers and the lending branch of the bank to capture its information advantage and the magnitude of collateral-related transaction costs. Overall, our results seem more consistent with several classic borrower-based explanations rather than with the lender-based view. We show that, conditional on obtaining credit from the local bank, more distant borrowers experience higher collateral requirements and lower interest rates. Moreover, competitive pressure from transaction lenders does not magnify the importance of lender-to-borrower distance. Our findings are also obtained with estimation techniques that allow for endogenous loan contract terms and joint determination of collateral and interest rates. |
| Keywords: | Bank lending, Collateral, Distance, Interest Rate |
| JEL: | G21 G32 L11 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:anc:wmofir:106&r=ure |
| By: | Brian Bell |
| Abstract: | The coalition government's austerity programme has resulted in some sizeable reductions in the police workforce, yet crime has continued to fall. A key question for the next Parliament is whether further real-terms reductions in police budgets can occur without more deleterious effects on crime. This paper explores the evidence on the trends in crime and the police workforce, and factors that may have led to the continued fall in reported crime. |
| Keywords: | crime, police, #ElectionEconomics |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepeap:031&r=ure |
| By: | Henzel, Steffen; Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus |
| Abstract: | We tackle the nowcasting problem at the regional level using a large set of indicators (regional, national and international) for the years 1998 to 2013. We explicitly use the ragged-edge data structure and consider the different information sets faced by a regional forecaster within each quarter. It appears that regional survey results in particular improve forecasting accuracy. Among the 10% best performing models for the short forecasting horizon, one fourth contain regional indicators. Hard indicators from the German manufacturing sector and the Composite Leading Indicator for Europe also deliver useful information for the prediction of regional GDP in Saxony. Unlike national GDP forecasts, the performance of regional GDP is similar across different information sets within a quarter. |
| Keywords: | nowcasting, regional gross domestic product, bridge equations, regional economic forecasting, mixed frequency |
| JEL: | C22 C52 C53 E37 R11 |
| Date: | 2015–04–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:63714&r=ure |
| By: | Alexandre Carvalho; Daniel da Mata; Kenneth M. Chomitz |
| Abstract: | We describe econometric techniques to treat spatial autocorrelation in multiequation cross-section models. The cross-section approaches discussed here are heavily based on the spatial GMM procedure, proposed by Conley (1999). An extension for fullinformation instrumental variable models is presented. Monte Carlo simulations are employed in order to verify some asymptotic properties of the Spatial GMM approach. The simulations suggest that, even in the presence of spatial nonstationarity, the spatial GMM still delivers valid standard errors. Besides, usual t-statistics appear to have a standard normal distribution. An application for estimating labor and wage equations to study regional growth and development of the Brazilian municipalities, between 1991 and 2000, is presented. Neste artigo, nós descrevemos técnicas econométricas para tratar autocorrelação espacial em modelos multiequacionais, com dados em cross-section. Os procedimentos abordados aqui se baseiam no método de momentos generalizados espacial (GMM espacial) proposto em Conley (1999). Uma extensão para estimação com variáveis instrumentais com informação plena é apresentada. Nós empregamos simulações de Monte Carlo para verificar as propriedades assintóticas dos estimadores descritos. As simulações sugerem que, mesmo na presença de heterogeneidade espacial, o GMM espacial apresenta erros padrões apropriados. Além disso, estatísticas t usuais parecem seguir a distribuição normal padronizada. Finalmente, nós apresentamos uma aplicação, em que são estimadas equações de salário para estudar crescimento e desenvolvimento regional nos municípios brasileiros, entre 1991 e 2000. |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:0154&r=ure |
| By: | Alexandre de Ávila Gomide |
| Abstract: | The transport economics literature has indicated that introduction of competition for the market in urban bus services (i.e. by means of competitive bidding) could promote cost-efficiency with low fares and better quality services. Therefore, this paper analyse the main outcomes and the latest consequences of the bidding process occurred during 1997-1998 in Belo Horizonte with the use of operational data. Did economic efficiency improve? Did fares decrease? This case study concludes that contracting-out bus services through a bidding process is not enough to ensure company cost-efficiency if public authorities do not implement a well-devised competitive tendering process and do not design an effective regulatory framework. We hope that this study can help policy makers to improve future bidding processes in Brazilian cities and to design an effective regulatory model for the urban bus sector, especially in these days where the media have made known the critical situation endured by the urban poor, which have no conditions to afford the costly fare levels of the public transport services. |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:0131&r=ure |
| By: | Enrico Moretti; Daniel Wilson |
| Abstract: | Using data on the universe of U.S. patents filed between 1976 and 2010, we quantify how sensitive is migration by star scientist to changes in personal and business tax differentials across states. We uncover large, stable, and precisely estimated effects of personal and corporate taxes on star scientists’ migration patterns. The long run elasticity of mobility relative to taxes is 1.6 for personal income taxes, 2.3 for state corporate income tax and -2.6 for the investment tax credit. The effect on mobility is small in the short run, and tends to grow over time. We find no evidence of pre-trends: Changes in mobility follow changes in taxes and do not to precede them. Consistent with their high income, star scientists migratory flows are sensitive to changes in the 99th percentile marginal tax rate, but are insensitive to changes in taxes for the median income. As expected, the effect of corporate income taxes is concentrated among private sector inventors: no effect is found on academic and government researchers. Moreover, corporate taxes only matter in states where the wage bill enters the state’s formula for apportioning multi-state income. No effect is found in states that apportion income based only on sales (in which case labor’s location has little or no effect on the tax bill). We also find no evidence that changes in state taxes are correlated with changes in the fortunes of local firms in the innovation sector in the years leading up to the tax change. Overall, we conclude that state taxes have significant effect of the geographical location of star scientists and possibly other highly skilled workers. While there are many other factors that drive when innovative individual and innovative companies decide to locate, there are enough firms and workers on the margin that relative taxes matter. |
| JEL: | H71 J01 J08 J18 J23 R0 |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:21120&r=ure |
| By: | INOUE Hiroyasu; NAKAJIMA Kentaro; SAITO Yukiko |
| Abstract: | This study empirically investigates the determinants of the productivity of knowledge creation by collaboration. By using the Japanese patent database, we extracted establishment-level patent co-invention information and found the following results. First, we find an inverse U-shaped pattern in the relationship between the similarity of knowledge stocks and the quality of patents. That is, moderate diversity in knowledge stocks between establishments rather than extreme similarity or extreme diversity is important for knowledge creation. Second, focusing on the differences in technology class, we find an inverse U-shaped pattern except in the lowest technologies, and the peak of the inverse U-shape is larger in the higher technologies. This implies that the common knowledge between establishments is important in the higher technologies. Third, we find that the physical distance between collaborating establishments has a negative effect on the quality of patents. |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:eti:dpaper:15049&r=ure |
| By: | Steve Gibbons |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:sercpp:013&r=ure |
| By: | Bergantino, Angela Stefania; De Carlo, Angela; Morone, Andrea |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to analyse the trade-off between parking space availability and cost, in terms of time saving. This information is pivotal when designing parking policies in terms of fares, investments and regulation. A relevant body of literature has focused on parking behaviour (e.g. travellers’ choice of parking type and location). However, little attention has been devoted to understand how risk and uncertainty influence drivers’ behaviours in parking decision. This paper address the parking choice problem by means of a laboratory experiments, which aims to collect disaggregate data on travellers’ responses to changes in parking attributes and related information. Different components of the parking activity (e.g., general in-vehicle time, parking search time, egress time) are controlled for, in relation to the characteristics of the respondent. In order to avoid heterogeneity in relation to journey purposes we focus on individuals’ mobility. The collected data is used to build simple model of consumer’s choice related to parking decision, taking explicitly into consideration both risk and uncertainty. |
| Keywords: | parking; risk; uncertainty; choice behaviour; laboratory |
| JEL: | C9 C91 R4 R41 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:63815&r=ure |
| By: | José Aguilar-Retureta (Facultat d'Economia i Empresa; Universitat de Barcelona (UB)) |
| Abstract: | In the last years, Economic History literature has paid close attention to the long-term changes undertaken by regional income inequality in different countries after the integration of their domestic markets. Nevertheless, this literature has mainly focused on developed economies (US and Europe). New evidence is required from peripheral economies, where economic growth has had different features, and income inequality may have been dominated by other forces and followed different trends. The aim of this paper is to analyse several dimensions of the long-term evolution of Mexican regional income inequality, from the early stages of domestic markets integration to the present (1895–2010). This analysis may be taken as basis for further explanatory analysis and may contribute to the emergence of new hypothesis to explain the long-term changes in regional inequality in peripheral economies. |
| Keywords: | Economic History, Regional Inequality, Economic Growth. |
| JEL: | N16 N96 R11 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ewp:wpaper:323web&r=ure |
| By: | Daniel da Mata; Uwe Deichmann; J. Vernon Henderson; Somik V. Lall; Hyoung G. Wang |
| Abstract: | The share of urban population in Brazil has increased from 58 to 80 percent between 1970 and 2000 and all net population growth over the next thirty years is predicted to be in cities. This paper explores population growth and its implications for economic dynamics and income generation among 123 urban agglomerations. Incomes are higher in larger agglomerations and in the South, but there is some indication of regional convergence with higher rates of income growth in poorer areas. In particular, agglomerations in the North and Central-West are growing faster than the more established urban centers in the South. Economic dynamics point to a process of increased diversification among larger cities, and greater specialization among medium sized agglomerations. In bigger centers there is a trend towards deconcentration towards the periphery. We close by providing a simple analysis of correlates of labor supply, as measured by population growth, and economic productivity, which is proxied by changes in per capita income. O parcela urbana da população do Brasil cresceu de 58% em 1970 para 80% em 2000 e o crescimento populacional dos próximos trinta anos é previsto para somente ocorrer nas grandes cidades. O presente trabalho analisa o crescimento populacional e suas implicações para a dinâmica da economia e de geração de renda de 123 aglomeração urbanas do Brasil. O nível de renda é mais elevado em aglomerações urbana maiores e nas regiões Sudeste e Sul, mas um indicativo de convergência regional, com maiores taxas de crescimento em áreas pobres, é verificado. Particularmente, aglomerações urbanas das regiões Norte e Centro-Oeste estão crescendo mais do que os centros urbanos já estabelecidos do eixo Sudeste-Sul. A dinâmica dessas economias apresenta um processo de diversificação crescente entre grandes cidades e de maior especialização econômica em cidades de porte médio. Os grandes centros urbanos mostram uma tendência a uma desconcentração da atividade econômica em direção às periferias. O trabalho, da mesma forma, realiza uma análise das variáveis correlacionas com o crescimento da oferta de trabalho, mensurado pela crescimento da população, e da produtividade econômica, aproximada por mudanças na renda per capita. |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipe:ipetds:0156&r=ure |
| By: | Kuang-Liang Chang; Nan-Kuang Chen; Charles Ka Yui Leung |
| Abstract: | This paper revisits the relationships among macroeconomic variables and asset returns. Based on recent developments in econometrics, we categorize competing models of asset returns into different "Equivalence Predictive Power Classes" (EPPC). During the pre-crisis period (1975-2005), some models that emphasize imperfect capital markets outperform an AR(1) for the forecast of housing returns. After 2006, a model that includes both an external finance premium (EFP) and the TED spread "learns and adjusts" faster than competing models. Models that encompass GDP experience a significant decay in predictive power. We also demonstrate that a simulation-based approach is complementary to the EPPC methodology. |
| Date: | 2015–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dpr:wpaper:0932&r=ure |