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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Jeffrey Cohen; Yannis M. Ioannides; Win (Wirathip) Thanapisitikul |
| Abstract: | This paper examines spatial effects in house price dynamics. Using panel data from 363 US Metropolitan Statistical Areas for 1996 to 2013, we find that there are spatial diffusion patterns in the growth rates of urban house prices. Lagged price changes of neighboring areas show greater effects after the 2007-2008 housing crash than over the sample period of 1996-2013. In general, the findings are robust to controlling for potential endogeneity, and for various spatial weights specifications (including contiguity weights and migration flows.) These results underscore the importance of considering spatial spillovers in MSA-level studies of housing price growth. |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tuf:tuftec:0809&r=ure |
| By: | Huang, Daisy J.; Leung, Charles K.; Qu, Baozhi |
| Abstract: | Using Chinese city-level data from 1999 to 2012 and considering geological, environmental, and social diversity, this study suggests that credit plays a significant role in driving up house prices after the Great Recession, whereas property prices only influence bank lending before 2008. Besides, local amenities such as higher education, green infrastructure, healthcare, and climate also positively affect house prices. Moreover, the impacts of bank loans and amenities on housing prices are interacted rather than isolated. |
| Keywords: | endogenous income and endogenous amenities; bank loans and monetary policy; multicollinearity; clustered standard errors |
| JEL: | G21 O18 R11 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62853&r=ure |
| By: | Gottschalch, Sören |
| Abstract: | China's central government has rightfully recognized that successful urbanization will be decisive for the nation's future development. However, most city regions in China are not yet enjoying the net benefits that agglomerations in metropolitan regions can initiate. In this regard, following the latest discussions around the necessity of inclusive urban growth in China, the paper calls for a housing strategy that accommodates the surging waves of rural to urban migration, one of the main drivers of urbanization, and that provides migrants with greater urban socio-economic opportunities, improves migrants' urban prospects in order to facilitate a growing urban middle class as well as directing urban growth. Therefore, migrants' characteristics and their exposure to the immediate urban socio-economic environment are elaborated upon in order to understand migrants' housing priorities along their rural to urban transition. These housing priorities are the result of coping strategies in the face of distinctive urban opportunities and threats. In the context of migration, they form the underlying forces of housing demand development along the rural to urban transition. Eventually, when identified, these forces can be triggered in a way that enables urban growth to contribute to agglomeration benefits. This paper adds to the previous IPE working paper: "Urbanization in China and how urban housing demand can be met", by specifying the underlying forces of evolving migrant housing demands. |
| Keywords: | Urbanization,Migration,Migrant Groups,Transition,Urban Housing Demand |
| JEL: | D03 D14 D63 J61 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ipewps:472015&r=ure |
| By: | Mayer, Thierry; Trevien, Corentin |
| Abstract: | Evaluating the impact of transport infrastructure meets a major challenge since rail lines are not randomly located. We use the natural experiment offered by the opening and progressive extension of the Regional Express Rail (RER) between 1970 and 2000 in the Paris metropolitan region, and in particular the deviation from original plans due to budgetary constraints and technical reasons, in order to identify the causal impact of urban rail transport on firm location, employment and population growth. We use a difference-in-differences approach on a specific subsample, selected to avoid endogeneity bias which occurs when evaluating transportation effects. We find that the increase in employment is 12.8\% higher in municipalities connected to the new network compared to the existing suburban rail network between 1975 and 1990. Places located within 20 km from Paris are the only affected. While we find no effect on overall population growth, our results suggest that the commissioning of the RER may have increased the competition for land high-skilled households are more likely to locate in the vicinity of a RER station. |
| Keywords: | impact evaluation; location choice; transport infrastructure; urban structure |
| JEL: | D04 H43 R42 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:10494&r=ure |
| By: | Remco Mocking; Bastiaan Overvest |
| Abstract: | We study the price effects of forced sales on the Dutch housing market. A forced sale may result in a lower transaction price because of e.g. suboptimal incentives for revenue maximization. The lower transaction price may also spill over to regular (unforced) nearby transactions. We aim to measure both the forced sale discount and the spillover effect. We employ an unusual rich dataset for house transactions in the Netherlands between 2007 and 2013. To identify the effects of forced sales we control for very local neighborhood trends and detailed house characteristics. We find that a forced sale results in a price discount of about five percent. Each nearby forced sale reduces the transaction price by about 0.4 percent. |
| JEL: | G21 R20 R31 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpb:discus:304&r=ure |
| By: | Hao Meng (ECUST); Wen-Jie Xie (ECUST); Wei-Xing Zhou (ECUST) |
| Abstract: | The latest global financial tsunami and its follow-up global economic recession has uncovered the crucial impact of housing markets on financial and economic systems. The Chinese stock market experienced a markedly fall during the global financial tsunami and China's economy has also slowed down by about 2\%-3\% when measured in GDP. Nevertheless, the housing markets in diverse Chinese cities seemed to continue the almost nonstop mania for more than ten years. However, the structure and dynamics of the Chinese housing market are less studied. Here we perform an extensive study of the Chinese housing market by analyzing ten representative key cities based on both linear and nonlinear econophysical and econometric methods. We identify a common collective driving force which accounts for 96.5\% of the house price growth, indicating very high systemic risk in the Chinese housing market. The ten key cities can be categorized into clubs and the house prices of the cities in the same club exhibit an evident convergence. These findings from different methods are basically consistent with each other. The identified city clubs are also consistent with the conventional classification of city tiers. The house prices of the first-tier cities grow the fastest, and those of the third- and fourth-tier cities rise the slowest, which illustrates the possible presence of a ripple effect in the diffusion of house prices in different cities. |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1503.05550&r=ure |
| By: | Hartley, Daniel (Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland); Kaza, Nikhil (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill); Lester, T. William (University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill) |
| Abstract: | In the years since Michael Porter’s paper about the potential competitiveness of inner cities there has been growing evidence of a residential resurgence in urban neighborhoods. Yet, there is less evidence on the competitiveness of inner cities for employment. We document the trends in net employment growth and find that inner cities gained over 1.8 million jobs between 2002 and 2011 at a rate comparable to suburban areas. We also find a significant number of inner cities are competitive over this period—increasing their share of metropolitan employment in 120 out of 281 MSAs. We also describe the pattern of job growth within the inner city, finding that tracts that grew faster tended to be closer to downtown, with access to transit, and adjacent to areas with higher population growth. However, tracts with higher poverty rates experienced less job growth, indicating that barriers still exist in the inner city. |
| Keywords: | Urban Labor Markets; City and Suburban Employment |
| JEL: | O18 R12 |
| Date: | 2015–03–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedcwp:1503&r=ure |
| By: | Nicolas Grau; Daniel Hojman; Alejandra Mizala |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analyze the effect of school entry and exit in the Chilean market- oriented educational system. During the period 1994-2012, nearly 2,150 schools closed (more than 2,800 if pre-K and kindergarten centers are included), around one-fifth of the current stock of schools. At the same time 3,770 new schools entered the school system, mostly private-voucher schools. Given this significant school turnover we estimate the potential â€productivity gains†associated to market’s creative destruction dynamics by studying its impact on students’ standardized achievement tests. We find that, at the municipality level, school turnover predicts changes in school performance -after control- ling for students’ socioeconomic status- only for low population municipalities, while it has no effect for high population municipalities. Moreover, we find a negative impact on school performance if turnover is associated with a significant school replacement. Finally, we estimate the potential educational costs of this dynamics, trying to identify the causal effect of school closure on grade repetition and high-school dropout rates. Using a large panel of individual student data that contains academic achievement and socio-demographic characteristics, we identify a causal effect of school closures on grade retention and school dropouts. School exit is associated with a 60 per cent increase in the probability of grade repetition in 5th grade and a 79 per cent increase in the probability of school dropout in tenth grade. |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udc:wpaper:wp396&r=ure |
| By: | Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Stephen M. Miller (Department of Economics, University of Nevada, Las Vegas); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Goodness C. Aye (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | This paper applies a time-varying parameter vector autoregressive (TVP-VAR) approach to estimate the relative effects of housing and stock prices on US consumption over time. We use annual data from 1890 to 2012 and find that over different horizons and over time, generally the housing price positively affects consumption while the stock price negatively affects consumption. These opposite responses to changes in housing and stock prices suggest different mechanisms through which wealth affects consumption. Further, the housing price effect proves larger in absolute value than the stock price effect after 1980. Between 1980 and 2007, housing wealth generally exerted a larger effect on consumption. This sub-period includes the 1997/2002 asset price boom/bust where house prices continued to rise moderately as stock prices fell. Finally, the co-occurrence of the decline in both housing and stock prices during the 2007-2009 episode produced bigger effects of the housing price for the first five years of the impulse responses while the higher magnitude of the stock price effect appears in the 6-year horizon. These findings suggest that the magnitude of the relative price effects differs with both time and horizons and also depends on whether prices increase or decrease. |
| Keywords: | Asset Prices, Consumption, TVP-VAR |
| JEL: | C32 E21 G10 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nlv:wpaper:1404&r=ure |
| By: | Christian Hilber; Charles Palmer |
| Abstract: | Study examines air pollution concentration in 75 urban areas between 2005 and 2011. Focuses specifically on the impacts of changes in the urban environment and transportation mode on pollution. A surprising finding of the research is that increasing car and population densities significantly reduce air pollution concentration in city centers where air pollution induced health risks are greatest. These effects are largely confined to cities in non-OECD countries. Two possible mechanisms for the negative effect of car density are explored: (i) increasing car density permits a decentralization of residential and economic activity; and (ii) car usage substitutes for motorbike usage. We find limited evidence in favour of (i) and no evidence in favour of (ii). We also observe a complex relationship between income and pollution concentration as well as a general downward-trend in pollution concentration over time. Overall, our findings are indicative that densely populated polycentric cities may be ‘greener’ and ‘healthier’ than comparable monocentric ones. |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lsg:lsgwps:wp175&r=ure |
| By: | Zwiers, Merle (Delft University of Technology); Kleinhans, Reinout (Delft University of Technology); van Ham, Maarten (Delft University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | There is increasing evidence that our societies are polarizing. Most studies focus on labour market and educational outcomes and show a socioeconomic polarization of the bottom and top ends of the population distribution. Processes of social polarization have a spatial dimension which should be visible in the changing mosaic of neighbourhoods in cities. Many studies treat neighbourhoods as more or less static entities, but urban researchers are now increasingly interested in neighbourhood trajectories, moving away from point-in-time measures and enabling a close examination of processes of change. Sequence analysis allows for a visualization of complete trajectories, and is therefore gaining popularity in the social sciences. However, sequence analysis is mainly a descriptive method and statisticians have argued for the use of a tree-structured discrepancy analysis to examine to what extent outcome variability can be explained by a set of predictors. This paper offers a first empirical application of sequence analysis combined with a tree-structured discrepancy analysis. This paper contributes to the debate on urban renewal programs by offering a unique viewpoint on longitudinal neighbourhood change. Our findings show a clear pattern of socio-spatial polarization in Dutch cities, raising questions about the effects of area-based policies and the importance of path-dependency. |
| Keywords: | neighbourhood change, socio-spatial polarization, urban renewal, sequence analysis, tree-structured discrepancy analysis |
| JEL: | O18 P25 R23 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8882&r=ure |
| By: | Benjamin Dachis |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth and Innovation, Urban Issues Series, Congestion, Traffic |
| JEL: | R41 R42 H54 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdh:ebrief:206&r=ure |
| By: | OECD |
| Abstract: | <ul> <li> Teachers report participating in more non-school than school embedded professional development (i.e. professional development that is grounded in teachers daily professional practices). </li> <li> Participation in non-school and school embedded professional development varies greatly between countries. </li> <li> Teachers report more positive impacts on their classroom teaching from school than non-school embedded professional development. </li></ul> |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:eduaah:10-en&r=ure |
| By: | Gustafsson, Peter (National Institute of Economic Research); Stockhammar, Pär (National Institute of Economic Research); Österholm, Pär (National Institute of Economic Research) |
| Abstract: | Real housing prices in Sweden have roughly doubled the last 15 years. The rise in housing prices has coincided with a rise in household debt, sparking debate about both the presence of financial imbalances in the Swedish economy and the macroeconomic effects that a correction of these imbalances would have. In this paper, we conduct a quantitative assessment of the macroeconomic effects of a considerable decline in housing prices using a Bayesian VAR model. Results show that a 20 per cent drop in housing prices would lead to a recession-like impact on household consumption and unemployment. The impact would be even greater if falling housing prices coincided with a global economic downturn. |
| Keywords: | Bayesian VAR; Housing prices; Household consumption; Unemployment; Small open economy |
| JEL: | C32 F43 |
| Date: | 2015–03–17 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nierwp:0138&r=ure |
| By: | Laurent R. Bergé; Frank van Oort |
| Abstract: | This paper deals with the questions of how network proximity influences the structure of inter-regional collaborations and how it interacts with geography. I first introduce a new, theoretically grounded measure of inter-regional network proximity. Then, I use data on European scientific co-publications in the field of chemistry between 2001 and 2005 to assess those questions. The main findings reveal that inter-regional network proximity is important in determining future collaborations but its effect is mediated by geography. Most importantly, a clear substitution pattern is revealed showing that network proximity benefits mostly international collaborations. |
| Keywords: | network proximity, gravity model, research collaboration, network formation, co-publication |
| JEL: | D85 O31 R12 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:1507&r=ure |
| By: | Fosgerau, Mogens |
| Abstract: | This paper presents a model of urban traffic congestion that allows for hypercongestion. Hypercongestion has fundamental importance for the costs of congestion and the effect of policies such as road pricing, transit provision and traffic management, treated in the paper. In the simplest version of the model, the unregulated Nash equilibrium is also the social optimum among a wide range of potential outcomes and any reasonable road pricing scheme will be welfare decreasing. Large welfare gains can be achieved through road pricing when there is hypercongestion and travelers are heterogeneous. |
| Keywords: | dynamic; congestion; urban; traffic; bottleneck; bathtub |
| JEL: | D0 H0 R4 |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:63029&r=ure |
| By: | Markus M. Grabka; Grabka; Gerlinde Verbist |
| Abstract: | Most of the available comparative empirical evidence on levels and trends in income inequalities and poverty in OECD countries relies on the concept of household disposable cash income, thus ignoring the services governments provide to households. Including those services matters a lot, however, for policy interpretation. While cash housing benefits are generally included in household disposable income, the effect of social housing is not accounted for. This may provide a misleading picture of the impact of overall housing policies on inequality and poverty, as some countries use different policies to help households meet their housing expenses. In this paper we study the value of the in-kind benefit households receive by living in social housing accommodation. For this purpose we calculate estimates of imputed rent, which until now has mainly been used to estimate the benefit derived from homeownership. We then analyse how these benefits are distributed over the population and how they help to combat poverty. Finally, in a case study for Germany, we compare cash and in-kind social benefits for housing. |
| Keywords: | Social housing, non-cash income, imputed rent, income distribution |
| JEL: | D31 H4 I31 I32 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hdl:improv:1507&r=ure |
| By: | Waleerat Suphannachart Author-Email : fecowrs@ku.ac.th (Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics,Faculty of Economics,Kasetsart University,Thailand) |
| Abstract: | This article aims at introducing a spatial aspect of analyzing the relationship between economic growth and poverty, in which the geographical disparity plays an important role. A case study of growth poverty elasticity of Sumatra, Indonesia, using district-level data, is provided as an example of how spatial issues can be incorporated in the analysis. An application of spatial regression is introduced as a suitable method. The case study of Sumatra indicates that spatial influence exists in the poverty determinant model and this spatial relationship shall not be ignored in estimating GEP. Poverty incidence in Sumatra tends to be concentrated in particular locations which is influenced by spatial factors such as types of land, soil condition, transportation, and infrastructure. This suggests a poverty alleviation program should be developed targeting larger regional bases, rather than concentrating on various small areas. This method can be applied in a number of topics in agricultural economics as well as other fields relating to location factors and neighborhood influence. |
| Keywords: | Economic Growth, Poverty, Spatial Regression |
| JEL: | O49 R11 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kau:wpaper:201503&r=ure |
| By: | Sin, Isabelle (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research Trust); Stillman, Steven (University of Otago) |
| Abstract: | Between 1984 and 2003, New Zealand undertook comprehensive market-oriented economic reforms. In this paper, we use Census data to examine how the internal mobility of Māori compares to that of Europeans in New Zealand in the period after these reforms. It is often suggested that Māori are less mobile than other ethnic groups because of attachment to particular geographical locations. If this were the case, Māori may have been disadvantaged in the post-reform period because they were more likely to be living in adversely affected areas and less likely to move to pursue better employment opportunities. In contrast to the anecdotal evidence, we find that Māori are more mobile on average than similar Europeans. However, Māori who live in areas with strong networks of their iwi are slightly less mobile than Europeans. The difference between Māori who live locally to their iwi and those who do not is even more pronounced when we consider responsiveness to local labour market shocks. Non-local Māori are considerably more responsive to changes in economic opportunities than are Europeans, whereas local Māori are almost entirely unresponsive. |
| Keywords: | mobility, migration, New Zealand, Māori, labour market areas |
| JEL: | J61 J15 R23 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8883&r=ure |
| By: | Aida, Takeshi |
| Abstract: | Although substantial research has been conducted on informal consumption smoothing mechanisms within villages, or within social clusters such as family and friends, few studies have compared the effects of these spatial and social networks. Employing spatial panel econometric models, this study extends the conventional empirical test of the full risk-sharing hypothesis to incorporate spatial and social network effects, and quantifies the diffusion of income shocks in each network. Estimation results based on household survey data in Southern Sri Lanka show that consumption smoothing performs better in spatial networks than in social ones, because income shocks defuse more effectively among neighboring households. This study also shows the limitations of the conventional test when it is considered a special case of a spatial econometric model. |
| Keywords: | risk sharing , network , kinship , spillover effect |
| Date: | 2015–03–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:jic:wpaper:89&r=ure |
| By: | Díez-Amigo, Sandro |
| Abstract: | First year students at the Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile, one of the leading Chilean universities, are randomly assigned to their first semester college class groups. This paper takes advantage of this natural experiment in order to robustly estimate the impact of peer characteristics on undergraduate academic performance. The research hypothesis is that being assigned as a freshman to a group with more or less students from a same school, or from a given socioeconomic background, may result in very different patterns of adaptation, potentially impacting academic performance. This paper finds evidence which suggests that, contrary to the results found in most of the existing literature, the average college admission score of first semester classmates not only has no positive impact on the academic performance of undergraduate students, but may actually be negatively affecting their grades. Also, although there are some differences across degrees and secondary school types, in general undergraduate students are more likely to be dismissed, and have lower grades, when they share their first semester college class with a secondary schoolmate. Moreover, students assigned to first semester college classrooms with a higher concentration of classmates who attended the same secondary school(s) generally have significantly lower grades, and are less likely to graduate. Finally, students sharing their first semester college classroom with students from public or subsidized secondary schools are more likely to be dismissed due to poor academic performance. The fact that these peer effects are persistent in time points to the existence of a path dependence pattern, suggesting that this initial period in college is key for student adaptation. These findings have important implications for the design of policies intended to improve the adaptation of freshman college students and the access to higher education, suggesting that students would benefit from targeted first semester college class group assignment policies, as well as from additional transitional aid tailored to their profiles. |
| Keywords: | Peer Effects; Higher Education; Education Policy; Economic Development |
| JEL: | I2 J15 O15 |
| Date: | 2014–05–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62913&r=ure |
| By: | Stefania Marcassa (Université de Cergy-Pontoise); Alessandra Fogli (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis) |
| Abstract: | We investigate how and when social change arises. We use data on the spatial diffusion of the fertility transition across US counties to identify the contribution of coordination and learning in the emergence of a new family model. We provide several measures of local and global spatial correlation to establish the existence of a significant geographic pattern in the data. We propose a mechanism in which cultural assimilation is the engine of the fertility transition. Using Census data starting from 1850, we estimate the speed of fertility assimilation for the different ethnic groups to show that their process of convergence is a crucial channel to explain the aggregate decline of fertility rate over time and across space. |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed014:1388&r=ure |
| By: | Jaap Dronkers; Dronkers; Roxanne-Amanda Korthals |
| Abstract: | The aim of this paper is to investigate the relation between tracking and migrant students’ performance (and parental background), taking into account school selection policies, and to compare the results across natives, first and second generation migrants. We combine two insights: the need to take into account school level variables when estimating the relation between education system and student performance and the need for including region of origin to correctly estimate models for migrant students. We use PISA 2009, selecting 31 countries with school features, of which 15 countries with information on the region of origin of the migrant students. We run separate analyses for native and first and second generation migrants, without and with origin dummies. We find that migrant students in education systems with many tracks which are themselves in schools in which the principal always considers prior performance in accepting students to the school have equal or higher scores than students in systems with only one track. However, in the full sample the influence of education systems for first generation students is absent: their performance is nearly only based on individual and school characteristics, while the performance of second generation migrant students is also influenced by tracks or prior performance. Still, the influence of the combination of tracks and entrance selection is weaker than that for native students. |
| Keywords: | Cross-national comparison, migrant students, native students, education system, schools with and without entrance-selection based on prior achievement, PISA data, origin countriesCreation-Date: 2015-03 |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hdl:improv:1508&r=ure |
| By: | Ahlers, Anna L.; Heberer, Thomas; Schubert, Gunter |
| Abstract: | The authors argue that China's "authoritarian resilience" cannot be fully grasped without adopting a local state perspective to examine the way that policy-making plays out at county level and below. Although local cadre bureaucracies have to obey upper levels, they still have substantial maneuvering space to shape the implementation of policies. Arguably, effective policy implementation is a manifestation and a result of systemic adaptiveness, effectiveness refering to the way that policies are adjusted according to local development blueprints, managed in terms of policy coordination across local government bureaus, experimentation and innovation, regular evaluation, and mobilization of public support. This article is structured as follows: first, it highlights important policy changes and institutional reforms launched by the central government in the early 2000s, which impacted strongly on local state governance and laid the groundwork for effective policy implementation. The authors then focus on the "Construction of a New Socialist Countryside" "macro-policy" as a frame of reference to show how local governments at county and township levels ensure effective policy implementation. It is argued that local cadres act as developmental agents who are able to manoeuver successfully between central state requirements and local needs to ensure that things are getting done "on the ground". Subsequently, we show how local governments interact with and "guide" private entrepreneurs as important stakeholders in implementing local development blueprints and strengthening public goods provision. In the conclusion, the main findings and arguments are summarized. |
| Keywords: | effective policy implementation,local state governance,constructing a new socialist countryside,interaction local cadres - private entrepreneurs |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:udedao:992015&r=ure |
| By: | Schmid, Timo; Tzavidis, Nikos; Münnich, Ralf; Chambers, Ray |
| Abstract: | Modern systems of official statistics require the estimation and publication of business statistics for disaggregated domains, for example, industry domains and geographical regions. Outlier robust methods have proven to be useful for small area estimation. Recently proposed outlier robust modelbased small area methods assume, however, uncorrelated random effects. Spatial dependencies, resulting from similar industry domains or geographic regions, often occur. In this paper we propose outlier robust small area methodology that allows for the presence of spatial correlation in the data. In particular, we present a robust predictive methodology that incorporates the potential spatial impact from other areas (domains) on the small area (domain) of interest. We further propose two parametric bootstrap methods for estimating the mean-squared error. Simulations indicate that the proposed methodology may lead to efficiency gains. The paper concludes with an illustrative application by using business data for estimating average labour costs in Italian provinces. |
| Keywords: | bias correction,projective and predictive estimators,spatial correlation,business surveys |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fubsbe:20158&r=ure |
| By: | Ruhose, Jens (Ifo Institute for Economic Research); Schwerdt, Guido (University of Konstanz) |
| Abstract: | We study whether early tracking of students based on ability increases migrant-native achievement gaps. To eliminate confounding impacts of unobserved country traits, we employ a differences-in-differences strategy that exploits international variation in the age of tracking as well as student achievement before and after potential tracking. Based on pooled data from 12 large-scale international student assessments, we show that cross-sectional estimates are likely to be downward-biased. Our differences-in-differences estimates suggest that early tracking does not significantly affect overall migrant-native achievement gaps, but we find evidence for a detrimental impact for less integrated migrants. |
| Keywords: | immigration, educational inequalities, educational tracking, differences-in-differences |
| JEL: | I21 J15 I28 |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8903&r=ure |
| By: | Beatrice D. Simo-Kengne (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Stephen M. Miller (Department of Economics, University of Nevada, Las Vegas); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether changes in the monetary transmission mechanism as captured by the interest rate respond to variations in asset returns. We distinguish between low-volatility (bull) and high-volatility (bear) markets and employ a TVP-VAR approach with stochastic volatility to assess the evolution of the interest rate in relation to housing and stock returns. We measure the relative importance of housing and stock returns in the movements of the interest rate and their possible feedback effects over both time and horizon and across regimes. Empirical results from annual data on the US spanning the period from 1890 to 2012 indicate that the interest rate responds more strongly to asset returns during low-volatility (bull) regimes. While the bigger interest-rate effect of stock-return shocks occurs prior to the 1970s, the interest rate appears to respond more strongly to housing-return than stock return shocks after the 1970s. Similarly, a higher interest rate exerts a larger effect on both asset categories during low-volatility (bull) markets. Particularly, larger negative responses of housing return to interest-rate shocks occur after the 1980s, corresponding to the low-volatility (bull) regime in the housing market. Conversely, the stock-return effect of interest-rate shocks dominates before the 1980s, where stock-market booms achieved more importance. |
| Keywords: | Asset Prices, Monetary policy, housing return, stock return, TVP-VAR |
| JEL: | C32 E52 G10 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nlv:wpaper:1405&r=ure |
| By: | Cirer-Costa, Joan Carles |
| Abstract: | Mediterranean tourism is usually defined as “3S tourism” – the three S’s standing for sea, sand, and sun. The term highlights the central importance of these three physical factors in the attraction exerted by the shores of Mare Nostrum. In this paper we set out to quantify the impact of the first two of the S’s – sea and sand. In our analysis, sandy beaches emerge as the basic production factor sustaining the tourism business, followed by the coast and the view of the sea. So great is the importance of the sea and the sand as specialized production factors that they actually dictate the spatial morphology of the tourist destinations. The coastline has become an indispensable prerequisite for attracting tourists, and proximity to it determines the quality and price of the various kinds of tourist accommodation. We also show that Mediterranean tourism is essentially an urban phenomenon. Most tourists expect a wide diversity of complementary amenities close to their accommodation; this means that the resorts must be large, dense urbanized areas. |
| Keywords: | Tourism and urban development. Resort morphology. Tourism cluster. Sea, sand & sun tourism. Balearic Islands |
| JEL: | L83 R12 R14 |
| Date: | 2015–03–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62843&r=ure |
| By: | Hahn, Youjin (Monash University); Islam, Asadul (Monash University); Patacchini, Eleonora (Cornell University); Zenou, Yves (Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | We study the causal impact of network centrality on educational outcomes using field experiments in primary schools in Bangladesh. After obtaining information on friendship networks, we randomly allocate students into groups and give them individual and group assignments. We find that groups that perform best are those whose members have high Katz-Bonacich and key-player centralities. Leaders are mostly responsible for this effect, while bad apples have little influence. Own Katz-Bonacich centrality is associated with better individual performance only if it is above the average centrality of the group. Further experiments reveal that leadership, as measured by network centrality, mainly captures non-cognitive skills, especially patience and competitiveness. |
| Keywords: | social networks, centrality measures, leaders, soft skills |
| JEL: | A14 C93 D01 I20 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8872&r=ure |
| By: | Berge, Philipp vom; Schmillen, Achim |
| Abstract: | "Using a novel data set that contains precise geo-referenced information on the universe of German establishments, we analyse both the direct effects of mass layoffs and any indirect impacts on workers who are employed in the vicinity of an establishment being closed down. In line with the literature, we document economically significant impacts of mass layoffs on the employment and earnings prospects of directly displaced workers. In contrast, neither an individual-level difference-indifference approach nor an alternative establishment-level approach inspired by the spatial economics literature find evidence of additional adverse economic effects for workers or establishments indirectly exposed to mass layoffs." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Massenentlassungen, Beschäftigungseffekte, regionaler Arbeitsmarkt, Bayern, Bundesrepublik Deutschland |
| JEL: | J64 J65 R12 |
| Date: | 2015–03–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201511&r=ure |
| By: | Maria D. Fitzpatrick (Cornell University) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, I document evidence that intergovernmental incentives inherent in public sector defined benefit pension systems distort the amount and timing of income for public school teachers. This intergovernmental incentive stems from the fact that, in many states, local school districts are responsible for setting the compensation that determines the size of pensions, but are not required to make contributions to cover the resulting pension fund liabilities. I use the introduction of a policy that required experience-rating on compensation increases above a certain limit in a differences-in-differences framework to identify whether districts are willing to pay the full costs of their compensation promises. In response to the policy, the size and distribution of compensation changed significantly. On average, public school employees received lower wages largely through the removal of retirement bonuses. However, the design of the policy led some districts to increase compensation, rendering the policy less effective that it might have otherwise been. |
| Keywords: | Intergovernmental Incentives, Teacher Compensation, Teacher Retirement |
| JEL: | H75 H72 H77 J26 I21 I28 |
| Date: | 2014–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upj:weupjo:15-220&r=ure |
| By: | Coenen , Lars (CIRCLE, Lund University); Hansen , Teis (Department of Human Geography and CIRCLE, Lund University); Rekers , Josephine V. (Department of Human Geography and CIRCLE, Lund University) |
| Abstract: | Grand challenges such as climate change, ageing societies and food security feature prominently on the agenda of policymakers at all scales, from the EU down to local and regional authorities. These are challenges that require the input and collaboration of a diverse set of societal stakeholders to combe different sources of knowledge in new and useful ways – a process that has occupied the minds of economic geographers looking at innovation in recent decades. Work in economic geography has informed innovation policies that tackle infrastructural, capabilities, network and institutional failures that may be found in different types of regions. How can these insights improve researchers’ and policymakers’ understanding of the potential for innovation policies to address grand challenges? In this paper we review these insights and then identify areas that push economic geographers to go beyond their previous focus and interests, notably by considering innovation policy in light of transformational rather than mere structural failures. |
| Keywords: | Innovation policy; grand challenges; economic geography; innovation systems failures; transformational systems failure |
| JEL: | O38 Q01 |
| Date: | 2015–03–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2015_013&r=ure |
| By: | Morkoetter, Stefan; Stebler, Roman; Westerfeld, Simone |
| Abstract: | We empirically investigate why issuers solicit and pay for multiple ratings not only at issuance but also during the monitoring phase of a debt instrument. Using a unique record of monthly credit rating migration data from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, and Fitch on all U.S. residential mortgage-backed securities from 1985 to 2012 ever rated (154'600 individual tranches), our results provide empirical evidence that rating agencies put more effort in rating and outlook revisions when tranches have assigned multiple ratings. Further, we demonstrate that in the case of multiple ratings, agencies do a better job in discriminating tranches with respect to default risk. Our results contribute to the literature on information production of credit ratings and extend the perspective to the monitoring period after issuance. We also show that in case of multiple ratings, Moody’s on average provides the most conservative credit assessment and that this relative pattern remains consistent over a tranche’s lifetime. |
| Keywords: | Multiple Ratings, Information Production, Structured Finance, Rating Agencies, Residential Mortgage-backed Securities, Rating Shopping |
| JEL: | G14 G21 G24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usg:sfwpfi:2015:05&r=ure |
| By: | Andres Castaño (Departamento de Economía, Universidad Católica del Norte); Dusan Paredes (Departamento de Economía, Universidad Católica del Norte) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we investigate the effect of the spatial density of firms on gender wage gap. We formalize this relationship using a monopsonistic approach in which women face higher travel costs due to domestic responsibilities. This creates not only bargaining power at the firm level but wage discrimination as well. This bargaining power is reduced in dense areas as they typically present a greater number of job opportunities. Utilizing data at municipality level for Chile and a Propensity Score Matching estimator, we find that a higher number of firms in Chilean municipalities is associated with a reduction in the gender wage gap. Depending on the estimator used, the effect of a 10% increase in the number of firms in a municipality is associated with a decrease in the gender wage gap between 0.6 pp. and 0.9 pp. |
| Keywords: | Regional Labor Markets, Gender Pay Gap, Density of firms |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cat:dtecon:dt201501&r=ure |
| By: | Dusan Paredes (Departamento de Economía, Universidad Católica del Norte); Juan Soto (Departamento de Economía, Universidad Católica del Norte) |
| Abstract: | This paper suggests that long distance commuters in Chile obtain a wage compen- sation of 8.7% on average when they commute among functional areas using data for 2009, while previous work identies an average compensation of 19% using counties. Also, we estimated a higher compensation per hour. This estimated wage-gradient is 6.1% per commuted hour and it is robust in several econometric specications, a signicantly higher number than the 0.06% previously reported in Jamett and Paredes (2013). Long distance commuters receive dierent wage compensation along the education distribution. Workers with a high education earn a higher wage compensation. This research suggests that the labor market alone does not seem to present evidence, which foreshadows a reduction in LDC ows. Moreover, this paper displays how the labor market oers workers higher incentives in order to maintain the ow of long distance commuting. |
| Keywords: | Long Distance Commuting, Wage Compensation, Functional Areas |
| JEL: | J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cat:dtecon:dt201502&r=ure |
| By: | Boucher, Vincent (Université Laval); Fortin, Bernard (Université Laval) |
| Abstract: | We study some recent developments and challenges in the empirics of the effects of social networks. We focus in particular on researchers' ability to make policy recommendations based on a standard linear econometric model. We examine the potential compatibility between this type of econometric model and a microeconomic theoretical approach based on fundamentals, such as preferences, technology and decision processes. We discuss sources of identification for the social multiplier as well as for the identity of the key player. We study the possibility of testing endogeneity in network formation. We analyse the use of proxy variables and their impact for the causal interpretation of the peer effect coefficients. Our analysis suggests that greater care should be taken in grounding econometric network models to sound and credible theoretical underpinnings. |
| Keywords: | social networks, social multiplier, network formation, identification, proxy variables, policy analysis |
| JEL: | A14 C33 C36 D85 Z13 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8896&r=ure |
| By: | Herz, Benedikt (Universitat Pompeu Fabra); van Rens, Thijs (University of Warwick) |
| Abstract: | We investigate unemployment due to mismatch in the US over the past three decades. We propose an accounting framework that allows us to estimate the overall amount of mismatch unemployment as well as the contribution of the frictions that caused the mismatch. Mismatch is quantitatively important for unemployment and the cyclical behavior of mismatch unemployment is very similar to that of the overall unemployment rate. Geographic mismatch is driven primarily by wage frictions. Mismatch across industries is driven by wage frictions as well as barriers to job mobility. We find virtually no role for worker mobility frictions. |
| Keywords: | mismatch, structural unemployment, worker mobility, job mobility |
| JEL: | E24 J61 J62 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8884&r=ure |
| By: | Lee Stapleton (Centre on Innovation and Energy Demand and Sussex Energy Group, Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton, BN1 9QE.); Steve Sorrell (Centre on Innovation and Energy Demand and Sussex Energy Group, Science Policy Research Unit, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton, BN1 9QE.); Tim Schwanen (Centre on Innovation and Energy Demand, Transport Studies Unit (TSU), School of Geography and the Environment, Oxford University, South Parks Road, oxford, OX1 3QY, United Kingdom) |
| Abstract: | Direct rebound effects result from increased consumption of cheaper energy services. For example, more fuel-efficient cars encourage more car travel. This study is the first to quantify this effect for personal automotive travel in Great Britain. We use aggregate time-series data on transport activity, fuel consumption and other relevant variables over the period 1970-2011 and estimate the direct rebound effect from the elasticity of vehicle kilometres with respect to: a) vehicle fuel efficiency (km/MJ); b) the fuel cost of driving (£/km); and c) road fuel prices (£/MJ). We estimate a total of 54 models, paying careful attention to methodological issues and model diagnostics. Taking changes in fuel efficiency as the explanatory variable, we find no evidence of a long-run direct rebound effect in Great Britain over this period. However, taking changes in either the fuel cost of driving or fuel prices as the explanatory variable we estimate a direct rebound effect in the range 10% to 27% with a mean of 18%. This estimate is consistent with the results of US studies and suggests that one fifth of the potential fuel savings from improved car fuel efficiency may have been eroded through increased driving. We also show how the normalisation of distance travelled (per capita, per adult or per driver) affects the results obtained |
| Keywords: | rebound effect; fuel efficiency; robustness; peak car |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sru:ssewps:2015-08&r=ure |
| By: | Dupor, William D. (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Mehkari, M. Saif (University of Richmond) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the impact of the education funding component of the 2009 American Recovery and Reinvestment Act (the Recovery Act) on public school districts. We use cross- Sectional differences in district-level Recovery Act funding to investigate the program's impact on staffing, expenditures and debt accumulation. To achieve identification, we use exogenous variation across districts in the allocations of Recovery Act funds for special needs students. We estimate that $1 million of grants to a district had the following effects: expenditures increased by $570 thousand, district employment saw little or no change, and an additional $370 thousand in debt was accumulated. Moreover, 70% of the increase in expenditures came in the form of capital outlays. Next, we build a dynamic, decision theoretic model of a school district's budgeting problem, which we calibrate to district level expenditure and staffing data. The model can qualitatively match the employment and capital expenditure responses from our regressions. We also use the model to conduct policy experiments. |
| Date: | 2015–03–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2015-004&r=ure |
| By: | Charles Rahal |
| Abstract: | We take a computational approach to forecasting real and nominal house prices, comparing a large number of models varying by the choice of factors, 'observable endogenous variables' and the number of lags, in addition to classical and modern econometric models. We utilize various optimal model selection and model averaging techniques, comparing them against classical benchmarks. Using six original datasets with large cross-sectional dimensions, we include recent developments in the factor literature as part of our model set. Within a 'pseudo real-time' out of sample forecasting context, results show that model averaging across a large set of candidate factor models is able to consistently generatye forecasts with favorable properties, but unable to consistently generate the singularly lowest forecast error. Other results include forecast error increasing in horizon, error magnitude varying by country (the variance of the underlying series) and that errors are lower for nominal, as opposed to real indexes. |
| Keywords: | House Prices, Forecasting, Factor Error Correction Models, FAVARs |
| JEL: | C53 R30 |
| Date: | 2015–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bir:birmec:15-05&r=ure |
| By: | Alcalde, José; Romero-Medina, Antonio |
| Abstract: | This paper provides an `escape route' from the efficiency-equity trade-off in the School Choice problem. We achieve our objective by presenting a weak notion of fairness, called τ-fairness, which is always satisfied by some allocation. Then, we propose the adoption of the Student Optimal Compensating Exchange mechanism, a procedure that assigns a τ-fair allocation to each problem. We further identify a condition on students' preferences guaranteeing incentive compatibility of this mechanism. |
| Keywords: | School Choice Problem, Fair Matching, Top Dominance Condition, Strategy-Proofness |
| JEL: | C78 D63 I28 |
| Date: | 2015–03–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:62831&r=ure |
| By: | Ashley Dunstan; Hayden Skilling (Reserve Bank of New Zealand) |
| Abstract: | Using data from the Household Economic Survey we examine the vulnerability of several cohorts of owner-occupiers who had recently taken out mortgages. We focus particularly on the period leading up to the introduction of the "speed limit" on high LVR mortgage lending. |
| Date: | 2015–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nzb:nzbans:2015/02&r=ure |
| By: | Simon Burgess |
| Abstract: | This paper contributes to understanding the ‘London Effect’, focussing on the role of the ethnic composition. The aim is to understand the statistical contribution to the London premium of ethnic composition. I also analyse data on the performance of recent immigrants. The results confirm that pupil progress on standard measures is significantly higher than the rest of England, 9.8% of a standard deviation. This is entirely accounted for by ethnic composition. The last decade of results shows the same result. I show that for other measures of attainment, the London premium is halved but remains significant. |
| JEL: | I20 I24 |
| Date: | 2014–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:cmpowp:13/333&r=ure |
| By: | Tsangyao Chang (Department of Finance, Feng Chia University); Xiao-lin Li (Department of Finance, Wuhan University); Stephen M. Miller (Department of Economics, University of Nevada, Las Vegas); Mehmet Balcilar (Department of Economics, Eastern Mediterranean University); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | This study applies wavelet analysis to examine the relationship between the U.S. real estate and stock markets over the period 1890-2012. Wavelet analysis allows the simultaneous examination of co-movement and causality between the two markets in both the time and frequency domains. Our findings provide robust evidence that co-movement and causality vary across frequencies and evolve with time. Examining market co-movement in the time domain, the two markets exhibit positive co-movement over recent past decades, exception for 1998-2002 when a high negative co-movement emerged. In the frequency domain, the two markets correlate with each other mainly at low frequencies (longer term), except in the second half of the 1900s as well as in 1998-2002, when the two markets correlate at high frequencies (shorter term). In addition, we find that the causal effects between the markets in the frequency domain occur generally at low frequencies (longer term). In the time-domain, the time-varying nature of long-run causalities implies structural changes in the two markets. These findings provide a more complete picture of the relationship between the U.S. real estate and stock markets over time and frequency, offering important implications for policymakers and practitioners. |
| Keywords: | stock market; real estate market; wavelet analysis; frequency domain; time domain |
| JEL: | C49 E44 G11 |
| Date: | 2014–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nlv:wpaper:1402&r=ure |
| By: | Hasan Engin Duran (TIzmir Institute of Technology,Department of City and Regional Planning, Urla-Izmir, Turkey) |
| Abstract: | Regional employment volatility is an undesirable phenomenon which describes a strongly fluctuating pattern of employment, thus, "instability" of a local economy. In the literature on this field, much of the attention has been paid to two main issues. First, a group studies has investigated the evolution of national economic volatility and searched for a tendency towards the moderation or amplification of economic cycles. Second, strand of scholars has analyzed the socio-economic and geographical determinants behind the cross-regional variation of volatility. However, far little attention has been devoted to understanding the causes and consequences of this phenomenon in developing countries So, aim of the present study is actually two fold. First, we analyze the cross-regional determinants of employment volatility in Turkey and decompose relative importance of the sources of employment growth shocks. Second, we examine the relationship between regional instability and economic convergence. In terms of methodology, we use a range of panel data, time series models and nonparametric tools such Random Effects Model; PANEL VAR model and Conditional Kernel Density Estimations. We adopt employment data and many other explanatory variables for NUTS-II level regions and over a period 2004-2013. Our analyses indicate three main results: First ,there are huge differences across regions in employment volatility. Second, volatility of regions is mostly related to demographic and market size characteristics of the regions. So, regions which have high rate of labor market participation (with active labor force) and moderated growth rates; the ones which constitute greater market area tend to experience relatively more smoothed employment pattern and, thus, enjoy a stable economy. Moreover, we have shown that regional economic shocks are mostly driven by region specific disturbances rather than purely nationwide or sectoral shocks. Third, regional instability is found as an important barrier against the fulfillment of economic convergence. |
| Date: | 2015 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tek:wpaper:2015/06&r=ure |
| By: | Mahy, Benoît (University of Mons); Rycx, Francois (Free University of Brussels); Vermeylen, Guillaume (University of Mons) |
| Abstract: | The authors provide first evidence on whether the direct relationship between educational mismatch and firm productivity varies across working environments. Using detailed Belgian linked employer-employee panel data for 1999-2010, they find the existence of a significant, positive (negative) impact of over- (under-)education on firm productivity. Moreover, their results show that the effect of over-education on productivity is stronger among firms: (i) with a higher share of high-skilled jobs, (ii) belonging to high-tech/knowledge-intensive industries, and (iii) evolving in a more uncertain economic environment. Interaction effects between under-education and working environments are less clear-cut. However, economic uncertainty is systematically found to accentuate the detrimental effect of under-education on productivity. |
| Keywords: | educational mismatch, productivity, linked employer-employee panel data, working environments |
| JEL: | J21 J24 |
| Date: | 2015–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp8885&r=ure |