nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2014‒11‒07
47 papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. The causes of urban sprawl in Spanish urban areas: a spatial approach By Miguel Gómez-Antonio; Miriam Hortas-Rico; Linna Li
  2. Agglomeration Theory with Heterogeneous Agents By Kristian Behrens; Frédéric Robert-Nicoud
  3. Rural-Urban Migration, Structural Transformation, and Housing Markets in China By Garriga, Carlos; Tang, Yang; Wang, Ping
  4. Urban infrastructure investment and rent-capture potentials By Viguie, V.; Hallegatte, S.
  5. Traffic accidents and the London congestion charge By Colin Green; John Heywood; Maria Navarro Paniagua
  6. Long-Term Vacancy in the United States By Molloy, Raven S.
  7. In School and Out of Trouble? Investigating the Effects of Furloughing Public School Teachers on Juvenile Crime in Hawaii By Randall Q. Akee; Timothy J. Halliday; Sally Kwak
  8. Spatial centrality: an approach with sectoral linkages By Nuno Crespo; M. Paula Fontoura; Nádia Simões
  9. The Role of R&D Collaboration Networks on Regional Innovation Performance By Cilem Selin Hazir; James Lesage; Corinne Autant-Bernard
  10. Subsidies to Electricity Consumption and Housing Demand in Bogotá By Camila Casas
  11. Case Study: Finance and Housing Provision in Britain By Mary Robertson
  12. Freight flows and urban hierarchy By David GUERRERO; Laurent Proulhac
  13. Familiarity Does Not Breed Contempt: Diversity, Discrimination and Generosity in Delhi Schools By Gautam Rao
  14. Housing market developments and household consumption By Clancy, Daragh; Cussen, Mary; Lydon, Reamonn
  15. Teenagers in the Contemporary City: Hypermodern Times, Spaces and Practices // Temps, espaces et pratiques des adolescents Les pistes de l'hypermodernité By Luc Gwiazdzinski
  16. Games on Networks: Direct Complements and Indirect Substitutes By Sergio Currarini; Elena Fumagalli,; Fabrizio Panebianco
  17. RHOMOLO: A Dynamic Spatial General Equilibrium Model for Assessing the Impact of Cohesion Policy By Andries Brandsma; d'Artis Kancs; Philippe Monfort; Alexandra Rillaers
  18. Housing Collateral, Credit Constraints and Entrepreneurship - Evidence from a Mortgage Reform By Thais Laerkholm Jensen; Søren Leth-Petersen; Ramana Nanda
  19. Persistence, Mean Reversion and Non-Linearities in US Housing Prices Over 1830-2013 By Luis A. Gil-Alana; Rangan Gupta; Ferando Perez de Gracia
  20. Determinants of house price dynamics. What can we learn from search engine data? By Bennöhr, Lars; Oestmann, Marco
  22. Co-evolutionary Patterns in Regional Knowledge Bases and Economic Structure: Evidence from European Regions By Francesco Quatraro
  23. Reconsidering the nature and effects of habits in urban transportation behavior By Olivier Brette; Thomas Buhler; Nathalie Lazaric; Kevin Maréchal
  24. The Impact of Regional and Sectoral Productivity Changes on the U.S. Economy By Caliendo, Lorenzo; Parro, Fernando; Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban; Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G.
  25. Determinants of the Spanish housing market over three decades and three booms: Long run supply and demand elasticities By Arrazola, María; de Hevia, José; Romero, Desiderio; Sanz-Sanz, José Félix
  26. “Don’t throw the baby out with the bath water”. Network failures and policy challenges for cluster long run dynamics By Jérôme Vicente
  27. Large Sample properties of the matrix exponential spatial specification with an application to FDI By Nicolas DEBARSY; Fei JIN; Lung-fei LEE
  28. Residential Property Loans and Bank Performance during Property Price Booms: Evidence from Europe By António Miguel Martins; Ana Paula Serra; Francisco Vitorino Martins; Simon Stevenson
  29. Evolution of Metropolitan Airports in Japan: Air Development in Tokyo and Osaka By Katsuhiro Yamaguchi
  30. The roles of different intermediaries in innovation networks: A network-based approach By Annalisa Caloffi; Federica Rossi; Margherita Russo
  31. Capital Cities, Conflict, and Misgovernance: Theory and Evidence By Filipe R. Campante; Quoc-Anh Do; Bernardo Guimaraes
  32. The institutional pre-conditions for regional labour market policy making in the EU: Case Studies and Policy Conclusions By Peter Huber
  33. 'Infrastructure and Industrial Development with Endogenous Skill Acquisition' By Pierre-Richard Agénor; Baris Alpaslan
  34. Social capital and economic growth in Europe: nonlinear trends and heterogeneous regional effects By Jesús Peiró-Palomino
  35. A Journey Home: What Drives How Long People Are Homeless? By Deborah A. Cobb-Clark; Nicolas Herault; Rosanna Scutella; Yi-Ping Tseng
  36. The development push of refugees By Jean-Francois Maystadt; Gilles Duranton
  37. Detecting Collusion in Spatially Differentiated Markets By Matthias Firgo; Agnes Kügler
  38. A Theory of Partisan Sorting and Geographic Polarization: Evidence from a Natural Experiment By L. Jason Anastasopoulos
  39. Targeting the Wrong Teachers: Estimating Teacher Quality for Use in Accountability Regimes By Nirav Mehta
  40. Hotelling meets Holmes : the importance of returns to product differentiation and distribution economies for the firm's optimal location choice By Anett Erdmann
  41. Birthplace diversity and productivity spill-overs in firms By René Böheim; Thomas Horvath; Karin Mayr
  42. JOB-TO-JOB (J2J) FLOWS: NEW LABOR MARKET STATISTICS FROM LINKED EMPLOYER-EMPLOYEE DATA By Henry Hyatt; Erika McEntarfer; Kevin McKinney; Stephen Tibbets; Doug Walton
  43. Treating the Tenant as a Customer: can good service improve real estate performance? By Danielle C. Sanderson;
  44. What Tenants Want: UK occupiers’ requirements when renting commercial property and strategic implications for landlords By Danielle C. Sanderson; Victoria M. Edwards
  45. A Comparative Analysis of the Accuracy and Uncertainty in Real Estate and Macroeconomic Forecasts By Dimitrios Papastamos; George Matysiak; Simon Stevenson
  46. Have Americans Hit Peak Travel?: A Discussion of the Changes in US Driving Habits By Robert Puentes
  47. Are Hotel Property Taxes Fully Passed on to Hotel Guests? By James Mak

  1. By: Miguel Gómez-Antonio; Miriam Hortas-Rico; Linna Li
    Abstract: WThis paper explores the role of interjurisdictional competition among local governments in fostering urban sprawl. The structure of local public finance along with housing and land-use policies make land a valuable commodity the supply of which is monopolised by local governments. This situation creates economic incentives for local governments (in terms of higher income and tax revenues) to influence development patterns and even engage in strategic interaction with neighbouring jurisdictions to compete for the creation of new residential areas. We empirically assess the presence of local spatial interaction in urban sprawl in Spanish urban areas. Thanks to the recent availability of a novel data set based on remotely sensed data from aerial photography and satellite imaging, we have been able to study urban development patterns across the country with unprecedented detail. We make use of GIS techniques to calculate a sprawl measure as the dependent variable and compile a database of independent variables on land use and topographic features, complemented with additional information on weather conditions, social, demographic, political and economic variables, which are then used in a spatial regression model. The results confirm our main hypothesis: there exists spatial interaction in the levels of sprawl between neighbouring municipalities, suggesting that local governments do indeed compete for the creation of new suburban settlement developments, hence promoting excessive urban sprawl.
    Keywords: urban sprawl, spatial econometrics, strategic interaction, local governments.
    JEL: C21 H7 R14
    Date: 2014–10
  2. By: Kristian Behrens; Frédéric Robert-Nicoud
    Abstract: This chapter surveys recent developments in agglomeration theory within a unifying framework. We highlight how locational fundamentals, agglomeration economies, the spatial sorting of heterogeneous agents, and selection effects affect the size, productivity, composition, and inequality of cities, as well as their size distribution in the urban system.
    Keywords: agglomeration; heterogeneous agents; selection; sorting; inequality; city-size distribution
    Date: 2014–09
  3. By: Garriga, Carlos (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis); Tang, Yang (Nanyang Technological University); Wang, Ping (Washington University)
    Abstract: This paper explores the role played by structural transformation and the resulting relocation of workers from rural to urban areas in the recent housing boom in China. This development process has fostered an ongoing increase in urban housing demand, which, combined with a relatively inelastic supply due to land and entry restrictions, has raised housing and land prices. We examine the issue using a multi-sector dynamic general-equilibrium model with endogenous rural-urban migration and endogenous housing demand and supply. Our quantitative results suggest that the development process accounts for two-thirds of housing and land price movements across all urban areas. This mechanism is amplified in an extension calibrated to the two largest cities indicating that market fundamentals remain a key driver of housing and land prices.
    Keywords: Migration; structural transformation; housing boom
    JEL: D90 E20 O41 R23 R31
    Date: 2014–10–01
  4. By: Viguie, V.; Hallegatte, S.
    Abstract: In a context of rapid urbanization and energy transition, massive investments will be required to develop efficient public transport networks. Capturing the increase in land value caused by transport infrastructure (for example, through a betterment tax) appears a promising way to finance public transport. However, it is no trivial task, as it is difficult to anticipate the rent creation. This paper uses a simple city model based on urban economic theory to compute the rent created by improvements in public transport infrastructure in Paris, France. To apply in places where models or data are not available, a reduced form of the model is shown to provide acceptable approximations of the rent creation. Simulations confirm that land value capture can finance a significant part of transport investments. The simulations also show that value capture potentials are influenced by what happens in the entire agglomeration. Simultaneous infrastructure investments in different parts of the city play a significant role, as they change overall accessibility patterns. Evolutions taking place in other cities also have a comparable influence. Non-local effects can change the total potential for land value capture and multiply this potential by as much as a factor of two.
    Keywords: Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Roads&Highways,Economic Theory&Research,Public Sector Economics,Municipal Housing and Land
    Date: 2014–10–01
  5. By: Colin Green; John Heywood; Maria Navarro Paniagua
    Abstract: In a rare effort to internalize congestion costs, London recently instituted charges for traveling by car to the central city during peak hours. Although the theoretical influence on the number and severity of traffic accidents is ambiguous, we show that the policy generated a substantial reduction in both accidents and fatalities in the charged area and hours. At the same time, the spatial, temporal and vehicle specific nature of the charge may cause unintended substitutions as traffic and accidents shift to other proximate areas, times and to uncharged vehicles. We demonstrate that, to the contrary, the congestion charge reduced accidents and fatalities in adjacent areas, times and for uncharged vehicles. These results are consistent with the government's objective to use the congestion charge to more broadly promote public transport and change driving habits.
    Keywords: Traffic Congestion, Pricing, Vehicle Accidents
    JEL: I18 R48 H27
    Date: 2014
  6. By: Molloy, Raven S. (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.))
    Abstract: Because housing is durable, the housing supply is slow to adapt to declines in demand. This paper uses long-term vacancy--defined as nonseasonal housing units that have been vacant for an unusually long period of time--to quantify the extent of excess supply in the housing market. I find that long-term vacancy is less than 2 percent of all nonseasonal housing units and accounts for only one quarter of the aggregate increase in nonseasonal vacancy from 2001 to 2011. Thus, at the national level, excess supply is considerably less extensive than indicated by traditional measures of vacancy. However, the stock of long-term vacant housing is concentrated in a small number of neighborhoods that do have appreciably high long-term vacancy rates. Some of these neighborhoods have characteristics suggesting that excess supply is related to overbuilding during the housing boom, while others have characteristics that are symptomatic of persistently weak housing demand.
    Keywords: Vacancy; excess housing supply
    Date: 2014–09–03
  7. By: Randall Q. Akee (UCLA, Luskin School of Public Affairs); Timothy J. Halliday (UHERO, University of Hawaii at Manoa); Sally Kwak (U.S. Congress, Joint Committee on Taxation)
    Abstract: Due to the large social costs of juvenile crime, policymakers have long been concerned about its causes. In the 2009-10 school year, the State of Hawaii responded to fiscal strains by furloughing all school teachers employed by the Department of Education and canceling class for seventeen instructional days. We examine the effects of this unusually short school year to draw conclusions about the relationship between time in school and juvenile arrests on Oahu. We calculate marginal effects from a negative binomial model and find that time off from school is associated with significantly fewer juvenile assault and drug-related arrests, although there are no changes in other types of crimes, such as burglaries. During the shortened school year, we calculate that there were twenty fewer assault arrests and fourteen fewer drug-related arrests of juveniles on Oahu. The declines in arrests for assaults were the most pronounced in poorer regions of the island whereas the declines in drug-related arrests were higher in relatively more prosperous regions.
    Keywords: Education, Crime, Inequality
    JEL: J08 I24
    Date: 2011–04
  8. By: Nuno Crespo; M. Paula Fontoura; Nádia Simões
    Abstract: This paper proposes a measure with six components to evaluate the degree of centrality (advantage) of a sector located in a region considering internal and external components and economic and geographical aspects. The main novelty of this indicator is that the definition of “mass” takes into consideration intra and inter-sectoral effects. In fact, the new economic geography has shown that a sector takes advantage of being in a particular location through two main channels: the proximity to other firms in the sector (intrasectoral effects) and spillover effects arising from the proximity to upstream and downstream sectors (inter-sectoral effects). The two effects will be considered in both the region of location of the sector under analysis and in the other regions related to it. The hypothesis is that the spatial centrality of a sector varies positively with geographic proximity to firms in the same economic sector and in other sectors connected by vertical linkages and negatively with inter-regional distance. The index allows a double reading: it is possible to identify the sectors in which the region has a higher degree of centrality and the regions with a greater degree of centrality in this sector. To illustrate the method, we include an example for the Portuguese economy at the county level (275 regional units).
    Date: 2014–09
  9. By: Cilem Selin Hazir (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - École Normale Supérieure (ENS) - Lyon - PRES Université de Lyon - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - Université Claude Bernard - Lyon I (UCBL)); James Lesage (Texas State University - Texas State University); Corinne Autant-Bernard (GATE Lyon Saint-Étienne - Groupe d'analyse et de théorie économique - CNRS : UMR5824 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - École Normale Supérieure (ENS) - Lyon - PRES Université de Lyon - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - Université Claude Bernard - Lyon I (UCBL))
    Abstract: In this study, we consider R&D collaboration networks as a mechanism that modifies knowledge flows in space, and hence as another source of interaction among regional innovation processes. Our objective is to understand the relative role of spatial neighbors and network neighbors on patenting performance of regions. We make use of data on R&D collaborations supported by the European Union's Framework Programs (FP) and empirically investigate the patent activity of 213 European regions in the field of ICT during 2003-2009. Concerning the short length of the time frame we adopt a static modeling strategy and specify a spatial Durbin Model. As spatial neighbors intersect with network neighbors we decompose neighbor regions into three sets: spatially proximate regions that are not collaboration partners, spatially proximate regions that are collaboration partners, and distant collaboration partners. We express the weight matrix as a convex combination of these three sets and by means of gridding we compare how model fit changes as we move from a purely space based view to a purely network based view to express the dependence structure. The weight matrix that performs the best accords 60% weight to distant collaboration partners, 30% weight to proximate collaboration partners and 10% weight to proximate regions with whom there is no FP collaboration. This result reveals that the interaction (proximate and distant) among European regions within FP networks in the field of ICT is key for understanding dependence among their patenting performances.
    Keywords: R&D collaboration networks; innovation performance; spatial econometrics; ICT
    Date: 2014
  10. By: Camila Casas
    Abstract: In this paper, I estimate the demand for housing in Bogotá, modeling electricity consumption explicitly to take into account the crossed subsidies included in Colombian utility rates. I use household level data on housing prices, observable dwelling attributes, and demographic variables to recover the willingness to pay for housing characteristics following the three-step estimation procedure suggested by Bajari and Kahn (2005). First, I regress the price of housing against different observable dwelling characteristics to recover the implicit price of each feature. Next, I infer household-specific preference parameters from the utility maximizing first-order conditions, where a household’s utility depends on these observable characteristics. Finally, I analyze the relationship between demographic variables and the taste parameters estimated in the previous step. In order to study the impact of subsidies on households’ housing decisions, I focus on the impact of changes in the price of electricity on the choice of dwelling size. I find that subsidized households choose bigger dwellings than they would in the absence of subsidies, while those who are taxed choose smaller ones. Classification JEL: H2, H4, I3, R21.
    Date: 2014–10
  11. By: Mary Robertson (School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London)
    Abstract: The paper uses the systems of provision (sop) approach to analyse the transformed presence of finance in the UK housing sop since the 1980s. ‘Sop’ analyses look at the integrated chain of agents involved in providing a good and the structures and processes through which they relate to each other. Such a study of UK housing is carried out from the vantage point of finance, asking how the transformation of mortgage finance since the 1980s has reshaped housing provision. It is argued that the reregulation of mortgage markets, along with increased international capital flows and a sustained period of low interest rates, led to influx of mortgage credit. On the production side, this expansion of mortgage lending has tended to feed prices rather than supply, in part reflecting both the availability of development finance and the use to which it was put. The activities of speculative housebuilders have been increasingly organised around the appropriation of land uplift, over which housebuilders compete with landowners and planners. Labour has suffered from casualisation as a result of housebuilders’ focusing their in-house activities on land acquisition and subcontracting construction. Such processes have also had implications for the availability of skills and other inputs, technological progress, and industry structure. On the consumption side, the transformation of mortgage markets coincided with, and helped to create, increased demand for owner-occupation. The latter was itself the consequence of the legacy of forms of provision throughout the 20th century interacting with a concerted effort on the part of the state to instigate both welfare reform and a cultural shift in preferences over housing. More generally, the state’s influence over the housing sop is pervasive, with the state involved more or less directly throughout the chain of provision
    Keywords: financialisation, housing, systems of provision, mortgages
    JEL: B50 P16 R31 R38
    Date: 2014–07–01
  12. By: David GUERRERO (IFSTTAR/AME/SPLOTT - Systèmes Productifs, Logistique, Organisation des Transports et Travail - IFSTTAR - PRES Université Paris-Est); Laurent Proulhac (LVMT - Laboratoire Ville, Mobilité, Transport - Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée (UPEMLV) - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - IFSTTAR UMR-T9403 - IFSTTAR-AME - PRES Université Paris-Est)
    Abstract: This research analyses the structure of material flows between urban centres. It is based on the results of a French survey that describes shipments sent by firms accross the country. Its aim is to shed light on the organization of urban systems. While most of works on urban systems are focused on the most visible and obviously dominant cities, little attention has been devoted to the basis of urban hierarchies. The purpose of this paper is to help fill this void, by integrating higher and lower levels of urban hierarchy. In order to do this, freight flows are analyzed to understand what they highlight on the economic interactions between the urban centres. This research shows that the pattern of freight flows between urban areas in France is hierarchical, but varies depending upon whether the flows are generated by wholesale trade activities or by manufacturing. The differences are explained by the specific organizational characteristics of each of these two activities. Wholesale trade broadly reflects the traditional spatial organization of service activities, with interlocking areas of influence. The spatial organization of manufacturing flows is more complex, which can be attributed to the regional specialization of activities. it should be highlighted that many of the outputs of manufacturing are inputs for wholesale trade. The majority of manufacturing flows involve parts and semi-finished goods that are not distributed to the market but to other manufacturing units, or to large purchasers who then coordinate the distribution of these goods. The exception could be certain fresh food products (i.e. Dairy), which, in their final form (ready for consumption), have a market-based distribution structure, similar to wholesale trade.
    Date: 2014–01–01
  13. By: Gautam Rao
    Abstract: I exploit a natural experiment in India to identify how mixing rich and poor students in schools affects social preferences and behaviors. A policy change in 2007 forced many private schools in Delhi to meet a quota of poor children in admissions. This led to a sharp increase in the presence of poor children in new cohorts in those schools, but not in older cohorts or in other schools. Exploiting this variation, and using a combination of field and lab experiments, administrative data and test scores, I study impacts on three classes of outcomes: (i) prosocial behavior, (ii) social interactions and discrimination, and (iii) academic outcomes. First, I find that having poor classmates makes wealthy students more prosocial and generous. They become more likely to volunteer for a charity at school, more generous towards both rich and poor students in dictator games, and choose more equitable distributions of payoffs in the lab. Second, having poor classmates makes wealthy students discriminate less against poor children, measured by their teammate choice in an incentivized sports contest. Consistent with this, they become more willing to socialize with poor children outside school. Third, I find marginally significant negative effects on test scores in English, but no effect on Hindi or Math. Overall, I conclude that mixing in schools had substantial positive effects on the social behaviors of wealthy students, at the cost of negative but arguably modest impacts on academic achievement. To shed light on mechanisms, I exploit idiosyncratic assignment of students to study groups and find that the effects on social behaviors are largely driven by personal interactions between wealthy and poor students, rather than by changes in teacher behavior or curriculum.
    Date: 2014–07
  14. By: Clancy, Daragh (Central Bank of Ireland); Cussen, Mary (Central Bank of Ireland); Lydon, Reamonn (Central Bank of Ireland)
    Abstract: Changes in household consumption, which accounts for more than half of gross domestic demand expenditure, can have a significant impact on output and employment growth. This Economic Letter looks at the main drivers of household consumption, paying particular attention to the impact of the housing market. It highlights three inter- related ways in which housing affects consumption: (i) housing wealth effects; (ii) changes in credit usage and credit conditions; and (iii) activity effects. All three played a role in driving up durables consumption in particular during the housing boom of the early 2000s.
    Date: 2014–09
  15. By: Luc Gwiazdzinski (PACTE - Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires - Institut d'Études Politiques [IEP] - Grenoble - CNRS : UMR5194 - Université Pierre-Mendès-France - Grenoble II - Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble I)
    Abstract: This chapter aims to examine teenagers' practices in public space, the modes of appropriation that stigmatise certain types of places and worry parents and adults, particularly in the evening and at night. It is based for the most part on a study conducted for the French Union of Holiday Centres (UFCV) on 'teenagers' times and spaces of sociability' and on a more detailed survey conducted in the outskirt area of Besanc ̧on, in Eastern France. Our study highlights the importance of a spatial and temporal approach to youth, at the level of living areas, so as to allow for the co-construction, locally and with the youth, their parents and residents, of projects and policies adapted to their needs. The chapter emphasises the necessity of transcending preconceived ideas about teenagers, to acknowledge and respect their temporalities, in order to be able to conceive a city and public spaces that are more accessible and welcoming, places where they can express themselves and places where they can hide: ordered times and places but also places and times for freedom and adventure. More generally, these populations, whose behaviour is increasingly mobile, fragmented and unstable - caricatures of a hypermodern society - call into question the urban fabric, the duality and diversity of urban times and spaces. Between the 'poly-temporal city' and the 'a' la carte city', the boundaries are increasingly blurred.
    Keywords: Youth ; Everyday life practices ; Public space ; Mobility patterns ; design ; Space-time use ; Chrono-urbanism
    Date: 2013
  16. By: Sergio Currarini; Elena Fumagalli,; Fabrizio Panebianco
    Abstract: We study linear quadratic games played on a network where strategies are complements between neighbors and substitutes between agents at distance-two. We provide micro-founded problems where this pattern of interaction is due to a local congestion effect. Equilibrium behavior systematically differs from a model of peer effects only. First, the ranking of equilibrium actions may not follow that of network centralities, with large behavior prevailing at the periphery of the network. Second, network density affects aggregate behavior in a non-monotonic way. Third, segregating agents according to their preferences has a non-monotonic effect on the polarization of behavior. We relate these patterns to evidence from smoking networks, industrial districts and ethnically fragmented societies. We conclude by discussing the implications for the identification of peer effects.
    Keywords: Games on Networks, Peer Effects, Key-player, Centrality, Congestion.
    JEL: C7 D85 I1 H23
    Date: 2014–10
  17. By: Andries Brandsma; d'Artis Kancs; Philippe Monfort; Alexandra Rillaers
    Abstract: The paper presents the newly developed dynamic spatial general equilibrium model of European Commission, RHOMOLO. The model incorporates several elements from economic geography in a novel and theoretically consistent way. It describes the location choice of different types of agents and captures the interplay between agglomeration and dispersion forces in determining the spatial equilibrium. The model is also dynamic as it allows for the accumulation of factors of production, human capital and technology. This makes RHOMOLO well suited for simulating policy scenario related to the EU cohesion policy and for the analysis of its impact on the regions and the Member States of the union.
    Date: 2014–10
  18. By: Thais Laerkholm Jensen (University of Copenhagen); Søren Leth-Petersen (University of Copenhagen); Ramana Nanda (Harvard Business School, Entrepreneurial Management Unit)
    Abstract: We study how a mortgage reform that exogenously increased access to credit had an impact on entrepreneurship, using individual-level micro data from Denmark. The reform allows us to disentangle the role of credit access from wealth effects that typically confound analyses of the collateral channel. We find that a $30,000 increase in credit availability led to a 12 basis point increase in entrepreneurship, equivalent to a 4% increase in the number of entrepreneurs. New entrants were more likely to start businesses in sectors where they had no prior experience, and were more likely to fail than those who did not benefit from the reform. Our results provide evidence that credit constraints do affect entrepreneurship, but that the overall magnitudes are small. Moreover, the marginal individuals selecting into entrepreneurship when constraints are relaxed may well be starting businesses that are of lower quality than the average existing businesses, leading to an increase in churning entry that does not translate into a sustained increase in the overall level of entrepreneurship.
    Date: 2014–10
  19. By: Luis A. Gil-Alana (University of Navarra, Pamplona, Spain); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria); Ferando Perez de Gracia (University of Navarra, Pamplona, Spain)
    Abstract: This study examines the time series behaviour of nominal and real house prices within a long memory approach with non-linear trends using long span of data for the US economy, over the annual period of 1830-2013. In general, the results show a high degree of persistence in the series along with a component of non-linear behaviour. In general, if we assume uncorrelated errors, non-linearities are observed in both nominal and real prices but this hypothesis is rejected in favour of linear models for the logtransformation of the data. However, if autocorrelated errors are permitted, nonlinearities are observed in all cases, and mean reversion is found in the case of the logged prices, though given the wide confidence intervals, the unit root null hypothesis cannot be rejected in these cases.
    Keywords: US house prices, long span annual data, long memory, non-linear trends
    JEL: C22 R21 R31
    Date: 2014–10
  20. By: Bennöhr, Lars (Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg); Oestmann, Marco (Helmut Schmidt University, Hamburg)
    Abstract: There is a broad literature about fundamental determinants of house prices, which received increasing attention in the aftermath of the subprime crisis. However, there might be several other partly unobservable socio-demographic, psychological or individual factors influencing real estate price dynamics. Using quarterly data, we try to capture such effects by including relevant Google search engine query information into a set of standard fundamental variables. We perform fixed-effects regressions for a panel of 14 EU-countries comprising the years 2005-2013. As dependent variable the house price index (HPI) from Eurostat is employed. We find that Google data as a single aggregate measure of unobserved variables plays a substantial role in explaining house price developments.
    Keywords: Google Trends; House Price Index; Real Estate; Google Econometrics
    JEL: C23 C82 R21 R31
    Date: 2014–10–16
  21. By: Christopher Goetz
    Abstract: This study uses a sample of unemployed workers constructed from the American Community Survey and the LEHD database, to compare the unemployment durations of those who find subsequent employment by relocating to a metropolitan area outside of their originally observed residence, versus those who find employment in their original location. Results from a hazard analysis confirm the importance of many of the determinants of migration posited in the literature, such as age, education, and local labor market conditions. While simple averages and OLS estimates indicate that migrating for a new job reduces the probability of re-employment within a given time frame and lengthens the spell of unemployment in the aggregate, after controlling for selection into migration using an IV approach based on local house price changes, the results suggest that out-migrating for employment actually has a large and significant beneficial effect of shortening the time to re-employment. This implies that those who migrate for jobs in the data may be particularly disadvantaged in their ability to find employment, and thus have a strong short-term incentive to relocate.
    Date: 2014–10
  22. By: Francesco Quatraro (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - CNRS : UMR7321 - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (UNS))
    Abstract: This paper analyses the co-evolutionary patterns of structural change in knowledge and economics. The former is made operational through an analysis of co-occurrences of technological classes in patent documents in order to derive indicators of coherence, variety and cognitive distance. The latter is made operational in a synthetic way by implementing shift-share analysis which decomposes labour productivity growth into effects caused by changes in the allocation of employment, those ascribed to intra-sector productivity growth, and those caused by interaction of these two components. The results of the analysis conducted on a sample of 227 European regions show that increasing variety is associated with the reallocation of the workforce across sectors whereas within-sector productivity is associated with high levels of both coherence and cognitive distance of the regional knowledge base.
    Keywords: Recombinant knowledge, Coherence, Variety, Regional structural change, Shift-share analysis,
    Date: 2014–07–15
  23. By: Olivier Brette (EVS - Environnement Ville Société - CNRS : UMR5600 - Université Jean Moulin - Lyon III - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Etienne - École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État [ENTPE] - Institut National des Sciences Appliquées [INSA] : - LYON - École Normale Supérieure (ENS) - Lyon - École Nationale Supérieure des Mines - Saint-Étienne); Thomas Buhler (Chercheur Indépendant - Aucune); Nathalie Lazaric (GREDEG - Groupe de Recherche en Droit, Economie et Gestion - CNRS : UMR7321 - Université Nice Sophia Antipolis (UNS)); Kevin Maréchal (ULB - Université Libre de Bruxelles [Bruxelles] - Université Libre de Bruxelles)
    Abstract: This article adds to the growing empirical evidence on the importance of habits in governing human behavior, and sheds new light on individual inertia in relation to transportation behavior. An enriched perspective rooted in Veblenian evolutionary economics (VEE) is used to construct a theoretical framework in order to analyze the processes at play in the formation and reinforcement of habits. The empirical study explores more specifically the synchronic processes strengthening the car-using habit. In addition to underlining the shortcomings of a 'decision theory' perspective to address urban transportation behaviors, we find that synchronic habits can have a significant effect on behavioral inertia. Our results suggest the existence of positive feedback between the development of synchronic habits, qualitative perceptions of driving times, and reinforcement of the car-using habit. The paper points out also that the diachronic dimension of habits would constitute another promising domain for further research on behavioral inertia in transportation
    Keywords: Habits, Transportation Issues, Choice
    Date: 2014
  24. By: Caliendo, Lorenzo (Yale University); Parro, Fernando (Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.)); Rossi-Hansberg, Esteban (Princeton University); Sarte, Pierre-Daniel G. (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)
    Abstract: We study the impact of regional and sectoral productivity changes on the U.S. economy. To that end, we consider an environment that captures the effects of interregional and intersectoral trade in propagating disaggregated productivity changes at the level of a sector in a given U.S. state to the rest of the economy. The quantitative model we develop features pairwise interregional trade across all 50 U.S. states, 26 traded and non-traded industries, labor as a mobile factor, and structures and land as an immobile factor. We allow for sectoral linkages in the form of an intermediate input structure that matches the U.S. input-output matrix. Using data on trade flows by industry between states, as well as other regional and industry data, we obtain the aggregate, regional and sectoral elasticities of measured TFP, GDP, and employment to regional and sectoral productivity changes. We fi nd that such elasticities can vary signi cantly depending on the sectors and regions affected and are importantly determined by the spatial structure of the US economy. We highlight the role of these elasticities by tracing out the effects of productivity gains in California in the Computers and Electronics industry between 2002 and 2007 on all other U.S. sectors and regions.
    Keywords: Interregional trade; intersectoral linkages; total factor productivity; gross domestic product; factor mobility
    JEL: F10 F11 O40 O47 R12 R13
    Date: 2014–08–06
  25. By: Arrazola, María; de Hevia, José; Romero, Desiderio; Sanz-Sanz, José Félix
    Abstract: This paper offers a quantitative analysis of housing supply and demand in Spain. To this end, it formulates a model in line with the traditional models of the literature. Using Spanish data for the period 1975 to 2009, reduced form and structural models are estimated. The results obtained show that faced with situations of disequilibrium prices adjust more rapidly than stock. Similarly, they demonstrate that demand shows low sensitivity to variations in prices and real interest rates. By contrast, it is highly sensitive to demographic changes and the evolution of the labor market. The evidence confirms that permanent income has greater weight than prices as a determinant of demand. Moreover, supply is very sensitive to variations in prices and interest rates.
    Keywords: Housing booms, Demand, Supply, Elasticities, Spain,
    Date: 2014
  26. By: Jérôme Vicente
    Abstract: Cluster policies have been recently called into question in the aftermath of several empirical evidences. Disentangling how market and network failures arguments play together in cluster policy design, we look for more robust micro foundations of network structuring in clusters. Our aim is to show that, in spite of this growing skepticism, new opportunities for cluster policy exist. They require moving their focus from the “connecting people” one best way that gets through the whole of cluster policy guidelines, to more surgical incentives for R&D collaborations, which favor suited structural properties of local knowledge networks along the life cycle of clusters.
    Keywords: cluster policy, knowledge spillover, network failures
    JEL: B52 D85 O33 R12
    Date: 2014–10
  27. By: Nicolas DEBARSY; Fei JIN; Lung-fei LEE
    Keywords: Spatial autocorrelation, MESS, QML, GMM, Heteroskedasticity, Delta method, FDI
    Date: 2014
  28. By: António Miguel Martins (CIICESI, Escola Superior de Tecnologia e Gestão de Felgueiras, Instituto Politécnico do Porto); Ana Paula Serra (CEF.UP and Universidade do Porto); Francisco Vitorino Martins (FEP, Universidade do Porto); Simon Stevenson (School of Real Estate & Planning, Henley Business School, University of Reading)
    Abstract: Understanding the performance of banks is of the utmost importance due to the impact the sector may have on economic growth and financial stability. Residential mortgage loans constitute a large proportion of the portfolio of many banks and are one of the key assets in the determination of their performance. Using a dynamic panel model, we analyse the impact of residential mortgage loans on bank profitability and risk, based on a sample of 555 banks in the European Union (EU-15), over the period from 1995 to 2008. We find that an increase in residential mortgage loans seems to improve bank’s performance in terms of both profitability and credit risk in good market, pre-financial crisis, conditions. These findings may aid in explaining why banks rush to lend to property during booms because of the positive effect it has on performance. The results also show that credit risk and profitability are lower during the upturn in the residential property cycle.
    Keywords: Residential Property Prices; Mortgage Loans; Bank Performance; Dynamic Panel Estimation
  29. By: Katsuhiro Yamaguchi
    Abstract: If one is asked to give an appraisal of airport development in metropolitan areas in Japan, an unsparing critic may not esteem it highly for three reasons. One, because planning for the secondary airport at Tokyo and Osaka was initiated too late to match growth in demand. Two, due to untimely planning, the original airport was exasperated with the noise issue by the time the search for the location of the secondary airport had begun. As a consequence, the location of the secondary airport had to be situated far from the city centre. Three, because improvements to access transport, to overcome the airport’s distant location, were not planned thoroughly enough and have taken too much time to be completed, both the out-of-pocket costs and access time are still unsatisfactory.
    Date: 2013–02–01
  30. By: Annalisa Caloffi; Federica Rossi; Margherita Russo
    Abstract: Greater understanding of what factors promote the formation of innovation networks and their successful performance would help policymakers improve the design of policy interventions aimed at funding R&D projects to be carried out by networks of innovators. In this paper, we focus on the organizations that can play the role of intermediaries in the networks, facilitating the involvement of other participants and promoting communication and knowledge flows within the network. Based on an original empirical dataset, capturing the relationships between organizations involved in a set of publicly-funded programmes in support of innovation networks, we have tried to identify what are the main features of different types of intermediaries based on an analysis of their positions within networks of relationships. We have observed that agents that occupy broker positions – linking agents that are not connected to each other – are more likely to be found in technologically turbulent environments, while the agents that occupy intercohesive positions – bridging cohesive communities of network agents – operate in more stable contexts. Intermediaries in general are more likely to be local governments. However, besides this, it is not possible to clearly identify organizations that, by nature, are more likely to be either brokers or intercohesive agents: different innovation networks may require different organizations to mediate relationships between the other participants.
    Keywords: Innovation policy, innovation networks, social network analysis, intermediaries, brokers, intercohesion
    JEL: D85 O31 O32 O38
    Date: 2014–02
  31. By: Filipe R. Campante (Harvard University); Quoc-Anh Do (Département d'économie); Bernardo Guimaraes (Sao Paulo School of Economics)
    Abstract: We investigate the links between capital cities, conict, and the quality of governance, starting from the assumption that incumbent elites are constrained by the threat of insurrection, and that this threat is rendered less e_ective by distance from the seat of political power. We develop a model that delivers two key predictions: (i) conict is more likely to emerge (and to dislodge incumbents) closer to the capital, and (ii) isolated capital cities are associated with misgovernance. We show evidence that both patterns hold true robustly in the data, as do other ancillary predictions from the model.
    Keywords: Capital Cities; Governance; Institutions; Conflict; Civil War; Revolutions; Insurgencies; Population Concentration; Democracy; Power Sharing; Inefficient Institutions
    JEL: D02 D74 O18 R12
    Date: 2014–10
  32. By: Peter Huber
    Abstract: Based on questionnaires conducted among PES organizations as well as Pacts and LEIs (Pacts/LEIs) in 40 cities of 12 EU member states and 2 non-EU member states – we take stock of the preconditions for conducting local labour market policies in an urban context in Europe and analyse the development of both regional PES organisations as well as Pacts/LEIs in the time since the economic crisis of 2008. Our findings suggest that the most effective measures to foster partnership based regional labour market approaches in the EU would consist of: a.) Increasing budgetary autonomy of the regional level of labour market policy institutions and aligning their competencies in other fields of labour market policy to the results that are expected from them, b) Investing in the development of partnership based policy institutions such as territorial employment pacts of local employment initiatives both in terms of the number of actors and their structure, d) Increasing the problem solution capabilities of regional actors by providing additional information in terms of evaluation and monitoring results with respect to policy measures and the regional labour market situation. In addition, the European Commission should on the one hand aim to raise awareness among national and regional policy makers on the benefits of decentralisation and devolution for regional labour market policy and to provide know-how and potentially also tools, sufficiently flexible to accommodate for the potentially widely varying needs of different local initiatives, for data generation, monitoring and evaluation. National governments, by contrast, should on the one hand aim to improve the vertical co-ordination of regional labour market policies by using best practice management tools of new public management in PES organisations and take an active role as a partner in Pacts/LEIs. They should also align the vertical distribution of formal competencies for labour market policy making in their respective countries with the tasks of (and the results expected from) regional policy organisations. From the perspective of the regional organisations, in particular this last point seems to be of major importance, since it is also considered to be the most important impediment to effective regional labour market policy making by them.
    Keywords: Academic research, challenges for welfare system, European governance, full employment growth path, good governance, high road strategy, institutional reforms, labour market policy, labour markets, local employment initiatives, multi-level governance, policy options, public employment services, socio-ecological transition, welfare state
    JEL: J68 R23
    Date: 2014–10
  33. By: Pierre-Richard Agénor; Baris Alpaslan
    Abstract: The link between infrastructure and industrial development is studied in an OLG model with endogenous skill acquisition. Industrial development is defined as a shift from an imitation-based, low-skill economy to an innovation-based, high-skill economy, where ideas are produced domestically. Imitation generates knowledge spillovers, which enhance productivity in innovation. Changes in industrial structure are measured by the ratio of the variety of imitation- to innovation-based intermediate goods. The model also distinguishes between basic infrastructure, which helps to promote learning by doing and productivity in imitation activities, and advanced infrastructure, which promotes knowledge networks and innovation. Numerical experiments, based on a calibrated version for a low-income country, show that changes in the level and composition of public investment in infrastructure may have significant effects on the structure of the labor force and the speed of industrial development.
    Date: 2014
  34. By: Jesús Peiró-Palomino (Department of Economics, University Jaume I, Castellón, Spain)
    Abstract: After two decades of academic debate on the social capital-growth nexus, discussion still remains open. Most of the literature so far, however, has followed the one-size-its-all approach, neglecting that the great disparities across geographical units might have implications in this relationship. This article analyzes the role of two social capital indicators on the growth of 237 European regions in the period 1995–2007 by implementing a set of both parametric and non- parametric regressions. Whereas the former impose a linear functional form for the parameters, the latter relax this assumption providing a flexible frame in which the functional form is given by the data. The technique also permits introducing parameter heterogeneity in the analysis by estimating individual regional effects. The results from the parametric analysis show that the sign and the magnitude of the effects hinge upon the indicator considered. In contrast, results from the nonparametric regressions suggest that, while both indicators are significant growth predictors, the effect departs from linearity. Moreover, not all regions benefit from social capital with the same intensity. The most notable difference lies in regions from Central and Eastern Europe countries, where social capital is mostly negative. Other regional conditions such as initial income levels, investment rates or the stock of human capital show a more limited influence.
    Keywords: Economic growth, European regions, nonparametric regression, social capital
    JEL: C14 R11 Z13
    Date: 2014
  35. By: Deborah A. Cobb-Clark (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne; Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA); and ARC Centre of Excellence for Children and Families over the Life Course); Nicolas Herault (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne); Rosanna Scutella (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne); Yi-Ping Tseng (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne)
    Abstract: This paper uses survival analysis to model exits over time from two alternative notions of homelessness. We are unique in being able to account for time-invariant, unobserved heterogeneity. We find that duration dependence has an inverted U-shape with exit rates initially increasing (indicating positive duration dependence) and then falling. Like previous researchers, we find results consistent with negative duration dependence in models which ignore unobserved heterogeneity. Exit rates out of homelessness fall with age and with the education level of mothers. Women are more likely than men to exit homelessness when it is broadly conceived, but appear to be less likely to exit when it is narrowly defined. Finally, higher paternal education and exemptions from welfare-related activity requirements due to either mental or physical health conditions are all associated with higher exit rates.
    Keywords: Homelessness, housing insecurity, survival analysis, duration dependence
    JEL: I3 R2 C4
    Date: 2014–09
  36. By: Jean-Francois Maystadt; Gilles Duranton
    Abstract: We exploit a 1991–2010 Tanzanian household panel to assess the effects of the temporary refugee inflows originating from Burundi (1993) and Rwanda (1994). We find that the refugee presence has had a persistent and positive impact on the welfare of the local population. We investigate the possible channels of transmission, underscoring the importance of a decrease in transport costs as a key driver of this persistent change in welfare. We interpret these findings as the ability of a temporary shock to induce a persistent shift in the equilibrium through subsequent investments rather than a switch to a new equilibrium in a multiple-equilibrium setting.
    Keywords: Refugees, Tanzania, Multiple equilibrium, Roads
    JEL: I32 O18 Q54
    Date: 2014
  37. By: Matthias Firgo (WIFO); Agnes Kügler
    Abstract: The empirical literature on mergers, market power and collusion in differentiated markets has mainly focused on methods relying on output and/or panel data. In contrast to this literature we suggest a novel approach that allows for the detection of collusive behaviour among a group of firms making use of information on the spatial structure of horizontally differentiated products. By estimating best response functions using a spatial econometrics approach, we focus on differences in the strategic interaction in pricing between different groups of firms as well as on differences in price levels. We apply our method to the market for ski lift tickets using a unique data set on ticket prices and detailed resort-specific characteristics covering all ski resorts in Austria. We show that prices of ski resorts forming alliances are higher and increase with the size and towards the spatial center of an alliance. Strategic interaction in pricing is higher within than outside alliances. All results are in line with the findings of theoretical models on collusion in horizontally differentiated markets.
    Keywords: tacit collusion, strategic alliances, spatial differentiation, ski lift ticket prices
    Date: 2014–10–17
  38. By: L. Jason Anastasopoulos
    Abstract: Do partisans sort? If so, why? I address both questions in this paper by developing the Migration-Assimilation-Polarization (MAP) theory of partisan sorting which is tested using Hurricane Katrina migration to Houston, Texas as a natural experiment. According to the MAP Theory, conservative flight induced by changes in diversity provides a mechanism for partisan sorting which can at least partially account for trends in geographic polarization. Using a variety of empirical tools including synthetic controls, I demonstrate that Hurricane Katrina migration led to increases in conservative white flight and geographic polarization between Houston and surrounding counties.
    Date: 2014–04
  39. By: Nirav Mehta (University of Western Ontario)
    Abstract: This paper compares the performance of popular estimators of teacher quality, which serve as inputs into teacher incentive schemes. I model an administrator tasked with categorizing teachers with respect to an exogenous cutoff showing that the preferred estimator depends on the relationship between teacher quality and class size. I then use data from Los Angeles to show that the simpler fixed effects estimator would outperform the more popular empirical Bayes estimator, meaning that the administrator would prefer to use it to either reward high-performing teachers or sanction low-performing ones. The preferred estimator would create 200 fewer classification errors.
    Keywords: None.
    Date: 2014
  40. By: Anett Erdmann
    Abstract: Inspired by the empirical work of Holmes (2011), which suggests the economic importance of distribution costs in the firm's optimal location decision, this paper introduces endogenous distribution costs in the model of Hotelling (1929). The proposed model shows an interesting trade-off between demand and cost considerations when a firm plays a hybrid location strategy. Given the location of local distribution centers and agents' displacement cost parameters, it is shown that, under certain conditions, the optimal location of the firms are in the interior of the Hotelling line rather than at the edges of the line. The supply cost effect which drives this result diminishes with the distance of the distribution center from the market so that the scale of the distribution area becomes also determinant for an optimal location strategy. The theoretical results are complemented with an empirical analysis for distribution intensive grocery retailers using location data for the two main conventional supermarket chains in the U.S. The data suggest that the firms consider distribution costs when differentiating from the competitor.
    Keywords: Firm strategy , product differentiation , distribution costs , price competition , location choice , retail competition
    JEL: L13 L22 L81 D43 R10 R30
    Date: 2014–10
  41. By: René Böheim; Thomas Horvath; Karin Mayr
    Abstract: We determine workforce composition and wages in firms in the presence of productivity spill-overs between co-workers. In equilibrium, workers' wages depend on the production struc- ture of firms, own group size, and aggregate workforce composition in the firm. We estimate the wage effects of workforce diversity and own group size by birthplace and the implied pro- duction structure in Austrian firms using a comprehensive matched employer-employee data set. In our data, we identify a positive effect of workforce diversity and a negative effect of own group size on wages, which suggest that workers of different birthplaces are complements in production on average.
    Keywords: workforce composition, productivity spill-overs, worker group size
    JEL: D21 D22 F22 J31
    Date: 2014–08
  42. By: Henry Hyatt; Erika McEntarfer; Kevin McKinney; Stephen Tibbets; Doug Walton
    Abstract: Flows of workers across jobs are a principal mechanism by which labor markets allocate workers to optimize productivity. While these job flows are both large and economically important, they represent a significant gap in available economic statistics. A soon to be released data product from the U.S. Census Bureau will fill this gap. The Job-to-Job (J2J) flow statistics provide estimates of worker flows across jobs, across different geographic labor markets, by worker and firm characteristics, including direct job-to-job flows as well as job changes with intervening nonemployment. In this paper, we describe the creation of the public-use data product on job-to-job flows. The data underlying the statistics are the matched employer-employee data from the U.S. Census Bureau’s Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics program. We describe definitional issues and the identification strategy for tracing worker movements between employers in administrative data. We then compare our data with related series and discuss similarities and differences. Lastly, we describe disclosure avoidance techniques for the public use file, and our methodology for estimating national statistics when there is partially missing geography.
    Date: 2014–09
  43. By: Danielle C. Sanderson (School of Real Estate & Planning, Henley Business School, University of Reading); (School of Real Estate & Planning, Henley Business School, University of Reading)
    Abstract: Customer Relationship Management (CRM) theory suggests that good customer service results in satisfied customers, who in turn are more likely to remain loyal and recommend the service provider to others. Applied to real estate, this theory implies that landlords should see a return on any investment in the service they give to tenants, in the form of increased lease renewal rates and fewer void periods, achieved without compromising rents. This paper examines determinants of occupier satisfaction, and investigates the relationship between occupier satisfaction and property performance, using measures such as capital growth, income return, lease renewal rates and total return. The analysis is based upon a pilot study using occupier satisfaction responses from around 2500 interviewees based in multi-tenanted offices, shopping centres and retail warehouses on out-of-town retail parks in the UK. The analysis is being extended to cover a larger sample for the author’s PhD. Part 1 of the analysis examines occupier satisfaction, whilst Part 2 considers its impact on property performance.
    Date: 2014–04
  44. By: Danielle C. Sanderson (School of Real Estate & Planning, Henley Business School, University of Reading); Victoria M. Edwards (School of Real Estate & Planning, Henley Business School, University of Reading)
    Abstract: Businesses need property in order to generate turnover and profits. If real estate owners are to be able to provide properties and related services that are desirable, it is crucial that they understand tenants’ requirements and preferences. Changes in the way businesses operate might well lead to an overall reduction in space requirements in all sectors. Faced with reductions in demand, landlords will find themselves in an increasingly competitive marketplace for tenants. Of the array of strategies available to landlords, what strategies should they employ for maximum effect? This paper examines what United Kingdom tenants want from commercial property (retail, industrial and office). The first part provides an analysis of data from several hundred interviews with occupiers of commercial properties owned by some of the largest UK real estate investment companies. Results are presented for each of the asset classes separately. The second part compares the findings with previous research and discusses the strategic implications for landlords.
    Date: 2014–03
  45. By: Dimitrios Papastamos (Eurobank EFG Property Services S.A); George Matysiak (Master Management Group and Krakow University of Economics); Simon Stevenson (School of Real Estate & Planning, Henley Business School, University of Reading)
    Abstract: We compare and contrast the accuracy and uncertainty in forecasts of rents with those for a variety of macroeconomic series. The results show that in general forecasters tend to be marginally more accurate in the case of macro-economic series than with rents. In common across all of the series, forecasts tend to be smoothed with forecasters under-estimating performance during economic booms, and vice-versa in recessions We find that property forecasts are affected by economic uncertainty, as measured by disagreement across the macro-forecasters. Increased uncertainty leads to increased dispersion in the rental forecasts and a reduction in forecast accuracy.
    Date: 2014–05
  46. By: Robert Puentes
    Abstract: American driving habits are changing. After decades of steady increases in the amount of driving, the number of vehicles, and the extent of licensed drivers, there now appears to be a shift. The growth is clearly leveling off, and dropping on a per capita basis, even at a time when a vast array of public policies continue to support and encourage driving. Perhaps even more amazing are total aggregate declines in some recent years coupled with drops in licensing, trips, and vehicle purchases. However, this phenomenon is still not well known. When they are recognized, these individual trends are either largely dismissed as economic factors caused by the global recession and stubbornly high unemployment rate. While there is little doubt that the sputtering US economy has major impact, emerging research suggests the changes in US driving habits are also the result of a long-term structural change reflective of a host of shifts in demographics, culture, technology, as well as settlement patterns in US metropolitan areas. A set of public policies also plays a key role. This paper explores those macro forces through an analysis driving trends, a review of existing literature, and discussion what is likely behind these trends as well as implications for public policy.
    Date: 2012–12–31
  47. By: James Mak (UHERO, University of Hawaii at Manoa)
    Abstract: Recent research on the excise tax effects of the property tax in small, multi-sector open economies suggests that the property tax may not be fully forward shifted to consumers as previously believed. I adapt this analysis to examine whether local hotel property taxes in Hawaii are fully passed on to hotel guests as lawmakers had intended. We conclude that full forward shifting is unlikely. I argue that an excise/sales tax on hotel occupancy is preferable to the property tax as a tourist tax.
    Keywords: Property tax, excise tax effects, hotel occupancy tax, hotel property tax
    Date: 2013–12

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