nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2014‒08‒16
23 papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Deconstructing Canada's Housing Markets: Finance, Affordability and Urban Sprawl By Calista Cheung
  2. Lao PDR Urban Development Sector Assessment, Strategy, and Road Map By Asian Development Bank (ADB); ; ;
  3. Mortgage Foreclosures and the Shifting Context of Crime in Micro-Neighborhoods By Johanna Lacoe; Ingrid Gould Ellen
  4. Spatial Aspects of Innovation Activity in the US By Drivas, Kyriakos; Economidou, Claire; Karkalakos, Sotiris
  5. Access to Piped Water and Human Capital Formation - Evidence from Brazilian Primary Schools By Julia A. Barde; Juliana Walkiewicz
  6. Gender Peer Effects in School, a Birth Cohort Approach By Ciccone, Antonio; Garcia-Fontes, Walter
  7. What do we know about primary teachers’ mathematical content knowledge in South Africa? An analysis of SACMEQ 2007 By Hamsa Vekatakrishnan; Nicholas Spaull
  8. People are not ‘rational’: An empirical study of the deviation between actual and shortest travel time paths By Wenyun Tang; David Levinson
  9. Does Growing Up in a High Crime Neighborhood Affect Youth Criminal Behavior? By Anna Piil Damm; Christian Dustmann
  10. Accessibility and the choice of network investments in the London Underground By David Levinson; David Giacomin; Antony Badsey-Ellis
  11. Labor Pooling as a Determinant of Industrial Agglomeration By Najam uz Zehra Gardezi
  12. Immigration, Naturalization, and the Future of Public Education By Tanaka, Ryuichi; Farré, Lídia; Ortega, Francesc
  13. Localisation of industrial activity across England’s LEPs: 2008 & 2012 By Michael Anyadike-Danes; Karen Bonner; Cord-Christian Drews; Mark Hart
  14. Does private tutoring increase students’ academic performance? Evidence from Turkey By Berberoglu, Giray; Tansel, Aysit
  15. A J-Test for Panel Models with Fixed Effects, Spatial and Time By Harry H. Kelejian; Gianfranco Piras
  16. Shelter from the Storm: Upgrading Housing Infrastructure in Latin American Slums By Sebastián Galiani; Paul Gertler; Ryan Cooper; Sebastián Martínez; Adam Ross; Raimundo Undurraga
  17. Regional economies - shape, performance and drivers By Eaqub, Shamubeel; Stephenson, John
  18. Differences Between Walking and Bicycling Over Time: Implications for Performance Measurement By Jessica E. Schoner; Greg Lindsey; David Levinson
  19. Does service reliability influence transit patronage? Evidence from Los Angeles, and implications for transit policy By Sandip Chakrabarti; Genevieve Giuliano
  20. An Experimental Study of Network Formation with Limited Observation By Michael Caldara; Michael McBride
  21. A Framework for Sustainable Real Estate Decision-Making and Assessment By Christensen, Pernille
  22. On the Predictive Content of Leading Indicators: The Case of US Real Estate Markets By Sotiris Tsolacos; Chris Brooks; Ogonna Nneji
  23. Transitions in a West African Labour Market: The Role of Family Networks By Nordman, Christophe Jalil; Pasquier-Doumer, Laure

  1. By: Calista Cheung
    Abstract: House prices have increased significantly in Canada over the past decade, driving household debt and residential construction activity to historical highs. Although macro-prudential tightening has slowed the pace of household borrowing in the last few years, house prices have continued to trend higher, and affordability remains a major challenge in urban centres. First-time home buyers must therefore spend more of their incomes to purchase a house and are vulnerable to future interest rate hikes. Overbuilding in the condominium sectors of some cities appears to be a source of risk, especially if a major price correction in these segments spills over into other markets. The country benefits from a sound and effective housing finance system, which performed well throughout the global financial crisis thanks to strong regulatory oversight and explicit government backing of the mortgage market. Nonetheless, the dominance of the crown corporation CMHC in the mortgage insurance market concentrates a significant amount of risk in public finances. Improving competitive conditions in the mortgage insurance market could help diversify these risks and reduce taxpayer contingent liabilities, while introducing coverage limits on loan losses would better align private and social interests. There may be a shortage of rental housing in several cities, especially in the range that low-income households can afford. Urban planning policies have resulted in low-density residential development which contributes to relatively high transport-related carbon emissions. Addressing these externalities requires stronger pricing signals for land development, road use, congestion and parking, combined with better integration of public transit planning. To prevent the marginalisation of low-income households, planning policies should support social mix and increase incentives for private-sector development of affordable housing. This Working Paper relates to the 2014 OECD Economic Review of Canada (
    Keywords: housing, financial regulation, household debt, macroprudential regulation, land use, affordability, compact growth, development charge, densification, social housing, housing finance, house prices, financial system risk, mortgage securitisation, mortgage markets, property tax, urban planning, urban sprawl, subprime, rental markets
    JEL: E02 E44 E61 G21 G22 G23 G28 H21 H42 H71 R14 R21 R31 R38 R48 R52 R58
    Date: 2014–07–21
  2. By: Asian Development Bank (ADB); (Southeast Asia Department, ADB); ;
    Abstract: This urban development sector assessment, strategy, and road map documents the strategic investment priorities of the Government of the Lao People’s Democratic Republic and the Asian Development Bank (ADB). It identifies the three priority areas: (i) strengthening of urban, regional, and environmental planning and management; (ii) planning and development of corridor towns; and (iii) infrastructure investments in other priority urban areas.
    Keywords: adb, asian development bank, asdb, asia, pacific, poverty asia, lao pdr, lao, laos, transport, urban, urban development, urban infrastructure, urban planning, planning, land management, housing policy, city, village, municipality, migration, population, utilities, water supply, electricity supply, town, thesaban
    Date: 2012–08
  3. By: Johanna Lacoe; Ingrid Gould Ellen
    Abstract: In the wake of the housing crisis there is growing concern that increased mortgage foreclosures may lead to physical deterioration of buildings and increased vacancy rates in neighborhoods, undermining neighborhood social controls, and causing increases in local crime. While some recent research suggests that increased mortgage foreclosures in micro-neighborhoods cause modest increases in crime (Ellen, Lacoe, and Sharygin, 2013; Cui, 2010), this paper considers whether foreclosures lead to increased crime on a block, as well as the mechanisms through which foreclosures affect neighborhood crime. To shed light on mechanisms, we investigate whether and how foreclosures shift the location and type of criminal activity by changing the relative attractiveness to potential offenders of one location versus another. For instance, the presence of a vacant, foreclosed building may make it more likely that a drug dealer will sell drugs in a building rather than on the street. As a result, crime occurring inside residences (and in vacant buildings in particular) and on the street may increase by different magnitudes. In addition, we consider whether foreclosures affect resident reports of disorder. Using richly detailed foreclosure, 311, and crime data geo-coded to the blockface (a street segment in-between the two closest cross-streets), we estimate the impact of foreclosures on the location of crime within blockfaces.This research focuses on Chicago, Illinois. Like many areas of the country, housing prices in Chicago reached a peak in 2006, and declined through 2011. In September 2011, 8.7 percent of the mortgages in the Chicago metropolitan area were in foreclosure, giving Chicago the 11th highest foreclosure rate among the 100 largest metropolitan areas in the country. Recent media reports claim that foreclosed and abandoned buildings in Chicago attract criminal activity including gang activity, drug use, and burglaries, in addition to graffiti, and theft of copper pipes and radiators (Knight and O’Shea, 2011). This study takes an empirical look at how foreclosures have changed patterns of crime in Chicago.
    Keywords: foreclosures, crime
    Date: 2014
  4. By: Drivas, Kyriakos; Economidou, Claire; Karkalakos, Sotiris
    Abstract: This paper studies the effects of spatial concentration of innovation activity on local production of patents in the US. In doing so, we augment the standard knowledge production function with a structure that allows for spatial effects, accounting along with bilateral also for multilateral influences across states. Our findings corroborate with past evidence on the important role of state’s own R&D stock and human capital in producing new inventions. In addition, external knowledge, via spatial interactions, is also a purveyor of local innovation production. The effect is stronger when we consider spatial influences from all states, in particular from the most innovative ones, and to a lesser extent from close neighboring states. Finally, spillovers are more likely to occur between states with similar technological specialization, which share common technological knowledge and pour similar technological effort.
    Keywords: patents, innovation, knowledge production, spatial
    JEL: C21 O31 R12
    Date: 2014–08–10
  5. By: Julia A. Barde; Juliana Walkiewicz (Department of International Economic Policy, University of Freiburg)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the impact of access to piped water on human capital formation as measured by test scores from standardized school exams in Brazilian primary schools. We find that children in urban areas with access to tap water at home perform signicantly better at school: They achieve test scores that are 14 percent of the standard deviation higher than the average test score without access. The effect is conditional on the education of the mother and turns out to be insignicant in rural areas. Our results capture the long term effect of the reduced incidence of water-related diseases for children with access to tap water. We exploit school-specic variation across years as well as a comprehensive vector of socioeconomic background variables to identify this effect.
    Keywords: Health, piped water, cognitive development, human capital formation
    JEL: I15 I25 H41
    Date: 2014–07
  6. By: Ciccone, Antonio; Garcia-Fontes, Walter
    Abstract: We propose estimating gender peer effects in school by exploiting within-school variation in gender composition across birth cohorts. Our approach differs from the existing literature, which exploits variation in gender composition at a given grade level in different years. We argue that the birth cohort approach is a useful alternative as the grade level approach generally yields spurious gender peer effects when there is grade retention. The birth cohort approach applied to primary schools in Spain indicates statistically significant positive gender peer effects of girls on boys’ academic achievement and statistically insignificant effects of girls on girls’ achievement.
    Date: 2014
  7. By: Hamsa Vekatakrishnan (Wits School of Education); Nicholas Spaull (Department of Economics, University of Stellenbosch)
    Abstract: Primary school mathematics teachers should, at the most basic level, have mastery of the content knowledge that they are required to teach. In this paper we test empirically whether this is the case by analyzing the South African SACMEQ 2007 mathematics teacher test data which tested 401 grade 6 mathematics teachers from a nationally representative sample of primary schools. Findings indicate that 79% of grade 6 mathematics teachers showed content knowledge levels below the grade 6/7 band, and that the few remaining teachers with higher-level content knowledge are highly inequitably distributed.
    Keywords: mathematics teacher knowledge, SACMEQ, South Africa, mathematics
    JEL: I20 I21 I28
    Date: 2014
  8. By: Wenyun Tang; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)
    Abstract: Few empirical studies of revealed route characteristics have been reported in the literature. This study challenges the widely applied shortest path assumption by evaluating routes followed by residents of the Minneapolis - St. Paul metropolitan area, as measured by the GPS Component of the 2011 Twin Cities Travel Behavior Inventory. It finds that most travelers used paths longer than the shortest path. Some reasons for this are conjectured.
    Keywords: Rationality, Route Choice, User Equilibrium, GPS Study, Travel Behavior, Networks
    JEL: R40
    Date: 2014
  9. By: Anna Piil Damm (Department of Economics and Business, Aarhus University); Christian Dustmann (Department of Economics, University College London)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effect of early exposure to neighborhood crime on subsequent criminal behavior of youth exploiting a unique natural experiment between 1986 and 1998 when refugee immigrants to Denmark were assigned to neighborhoods quasi-randomly. We find strong evidence that the share of young people convicted for crimes, in particular violent crimes, in the neighborhood increases convictions of male assignees later in life. No such effects are found for other measures of neighborhood crime including the rate of committed crimes. Our findings suggest social interaction as a key channel through which neighborhood crime is linked to individual criminal behavior.
    Keywords: Neighborhood effects, criminal convictions, social interactions, random allocation
    JEL: J0 H43
    Date: 2014–06
  10. By: David Levinson; David Giacomin; Antony Badsey-Ellis (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)
    Abstract: In 1863, the Metropolitan Railway of what came to be known as the London Underground successfully opened as the world’s first subway. Its high ridership spawned interest in additional links. Entrepreneurs secured funding and then proposed new lines to Parliament for approval, though only a portion were actually approved. While putative rail barons may have conducted some economic analysis, the final decision lay with Parliament, which did not have available modern transportation economic or geographic analysis tools. How good were the decisions that Parliament made in approving Underground Lines? This paper explores the role accessibility played on the decision to approve or reject proposed early London Tube Schemes. It finds that maximizing accessibility to population (highly correlated with revenue and ridership) largely explains Parliamentary approvals and rejections.
    Keywords: Accessibility, Network Growth, Subways, Public Transport, Travel Behavior, Networks
    JEL: R40
    Date: 2014
  11. By: Najam uz Zehra Gardezi (Lahore School of Economics, Lahore, Pakistan.)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the agglomeration behavior exhibited by manufacturing firms in Punjab. Employing a unique dataset, it constructs a distance-based measure of agglomeration to verify the existence of localization economies. The M function—the industry-level measure of concentration—is regressed on a number of industry characteristics that measure the presence of positive externalities. In particular, a measure of each industry’s potential for labor pooling is used to determine whether firms that experience greater fluctuations in employment are likely to be more concentrated. The results provide evidence of the importance of labor pooling in explaining the high level of concentration within industries.
    Date: 2013
  12. By: Tanaka, Ryuichi (National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies Japan); Farré, Lídia (IAE Barcelona (CSIC)); Ortega, Francesc (Queens College, CUNY)
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the effects of immigration on the education system of the receiving country from a political economy perspective. Specifically, we extend the school-choice model by Epple and Romano (1996b) and Coen-Pirani (2011) by incorporating a subsidy to private schools, a distinguishing feature of Spain's education system. We calibrate the model to match key moments of Spain's economy and education system in year 2008, the end of a large episode of immigration. By means of simulations we evaluate the effects of immigration on the size and quality of Spain's public education. Our main findings are as follows. First, immigration will lead to a small increase in the size of public education in terms of enrollment. However, this increase in size masks an important composition effect. There is a large native flight away from public schools that is offset by the large inflow of immigrant children into public schools. Secondly, we predict a large reduction in the quality of public education, an 11 percent reduction in public spending per student. Our analysis suggests that these effects will unfold unevenly over time. While the changes in the size (and student composition) of public schools will take place promptly upon arrival of the immigrants, the reduction in funding will be more gradual and only fully take place once the immigrant population has been enfranchised. We also provide estimates separately for Spain's regions, which enjoy some autonomy in their education policies and experienced widely different levels of immigration.
    Keywords: education, public school, immigration, naturalization
    JEL: D7 F22 H52 H75 J61 I22 I24
    Date: 2014–07
  13. By: Michael Anyadike-Danes (Aston Business School); Karen Bonner (Aston Business School); Cord-Christian Drews (Aston Business School); Mark Hart (Aston Business School)
    Abstract: BIS commissioned the Enterprise Research Centre (ERC) to use the new Local Enterprise Partnerships (LEPs) as the sub-national spatial frame in England to provide data on industrial clusters. The analysis is designed as an information source for the LEPS as they prepare their new strategic economic plans. We use a very simple Location Quotient (LQ) measure which is designed to show the extent to which a particular activity is over- or under-represented in each LEP relative to the GB national average. We do this for 2008 and 2012 using the local unit or workplace version of the Office of National Statistics Business Structure Database. For the detailed 5-digit standard industrial classification (SIC) we present for each LEP two tables for each year. First, a table of the top 20 sectors by LQ score with details of the number of workplaces and total employment in the sector and the overall GB share of employment in the LEP. Second, a table of the top 20 sectors by jobs. Viewed together they provide an overall summary of the nature and scale of the clusters in each LEP and an indication of their importance in terms of jobs. The calculation of LQs is of course just a first step in the process of cluster identification since there are many other dimensions of a cluster it does not capture (for example the fact that strategically important supply chains extend beyond individual 5-digit SIC boundaries). A large LQ is not sufficient to indicate a policy-relevant cluster since many contribute only very small job numbers in a LEP. A commentary is provided for each of the 39 English LEPs, and although most activities are broadly distributed, there are some industries where particular LEPs have particular concentrations in terms of employment. The identification of these local concentrations of industrial activity is, of course, just a starting point for a much more detailed discussion in order to understand how the analysis can be interpreted and connected to local economic strategies. In particular, there is no simple 'read-through' from a ‘cluster’ identified by a high LQ to a strategic focus.
    Keywords: location quotients, industrial clusters, localisation of industry
    JEL: R11 R12 R58
    Date: 2013–12–01
  14. By: Berberoglu, Giray; Tansel, Aysit
    Abstract: This paper investigates the effectiveness of private tutoring in Turkey. The authors introduce their study by providing some background information on the two major national examinations and three different kinds of tutoring. They then describe how they aimed to analyse whether attending private tutoring centres (PTCs) enhances Turkish students’ academic performance. By way of multiple linear regression analysis, their study sought to evaluate whether the impact of private tutoring varies in different subject areas, taking into account several student-related characteristics such as family and academic backgrounds as well as interest in and perception of academic success. In terms of subject areas, the results indicate that while private tutoring does have a positive impact on academic performance in mathematics and Turkish language, this is not the case in natural sciences. However, as evidenced by the effect sizes, these impacts are rather small compared to the impacts of other variables such as interest in and perception of academic success, high school graduation fields of study, high school cumulative grade point average (CGPA), parental education and students’ sociocultural background. While the authors point out that more research on the impact of further important variables needs to be done, their view is that school seems to be an important factor for determining students’ academic performance.
    Keywords: Private tutoring, Academic Performance, Regression analysis, Turkey
    JEL: I21 I23
    Date: 2014–07–15
  15. By: Harry H. Kelejian (Department of Economics, University of Maryland); Gianfranco Piras (Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University)
    Abstract: In this paper we suggest a J-test in a spatial panel framework of a null model against one or more alternatives. The null model we consider has fixed effects, along with spatial and time dependence. The alternatives can have either fixed or random effects. We implement our procedure to test the specifications of a demand for cigarette model. We find that the most appropriate specification is one that contains the average price of cigarettes in neighboring states, as well as the spatial lag of the dependent variable. Along with formal large sample results, we also give small sample Monte Carlo results. Our large samples results are based on the assumption N ? 8 and T is fixed. Our Monte Carlo results suggest that our proposed J-test has good power, and proper size even for small to moderately sized samples.
    Keywords: spatial panel models, fixed effects, time and spatial lags, non-nested j-test
    JEL: C01 C12
    Date: 2013–03
  16. By: Sebastián Galiani; Paul Gertler; Ryan Cooper; Sebastián Martínez; Adam Ross; Raimundo Undurraga
    Abstract: This paper provides empirical evidence on the causal effects that upgrading slum dwellings has on the living conditions of the extremely poor. In particular, we study the impact of providing better houses in situ to slum dwellers in El Salvador, Mexico and Uruguay. We experimentally evaluate the impact of a housing project run by the NGO TECHO which provides basic pre-fabricated houses to members of extremely poor population groups in Latin America. The main objective of the program is to improve household well-being. Our findings show that better houses have a positive effect on overall housing conditions and general well-being: treated households are happier with their quality of life. In two countries, we also document improvements in children's health; in El Salvador, slum dwellers also feel that they are safer. We do not find this result, however, in the other two experimental samples. There are no other noticeable robust effects on the possession of durable goods or in terms of labor outcomes. Our results are robust in terms of both internal and external validity because they are derived from similar experiments in three different Latin American countries.
    Keywords: Health, Housing, Housing infrastructure, Slum dwellers, NGO Techo, Slums
    Date: 2014–07
  17. By: Eaqub, Shamubeel (New Zealand Institute of Economic Research); Stephenson, John (New Zealand Institute of Economic Research)
    Abstract: Economic performance is uneven across New Zealand’s regions. This paper highlights the similarities and differences in regional economies, the drivers of past performance, and how that performance is shared in the community (GDP versus household income, for example).
    Keywords: New Zealand; regional eocnomies
    JEL: H70
    Date: 2014–08–05
  18. By: Jessica E. Schoner; Greg Lindsey; David Levinson (Nexus (Networks, Economics, and Urban Systems) Research Group, Department of Civil Engineering, University of Minnesota)
    Abstract: Transportation policies and plans encourage non-motorized transportation and the establishment of performance measures to assess progress towards multi-modal system goals. Challenges in fostering walking and bicycling include the lack of data for measuring rates of walking and bicycling over time and differences in pedestrians and bicyclists and the trips they make. This paper analyzes travel behavior inventories conducted by the Metropolitan Council in the Minneapolis-St. Paul Metropolitan Area in 2001 and 2010 to illuminate differences walking and bicycling over time and illustrate the implications for performance measurement. We focus on the who, what, where, when, and why of non-motorized transportation: who pedestrians and bicyclists are, where they go and why, when they travel, and what factors are associated with the trips they make. Measured by summer mode share, walking and bicycling both increased during the decade, but the differences between the modes overshadow their similarities. Using descriptive statistics, hypothesis testing, and multinomial logistic models, we show that walkers are different than bicyclists, that walking trips are shorter and made for different purposes, that walking and bicycling trips differ seasonally, and that different factors are associated with the likelihoods of walking or bicycling. While the increase in mode share was greater for walking than bicycling, the percentage increase relative to 2001 share was greater for bicycling than walking. Both walking and bicycling remain mainly urban transportation options. Older age reduces the likelihood of biking trips more than walking trips, and biking remains gendered while walking is not. These differences call into question the common practice of treating nonmotorized transportation as a single mode. Managers can use these results to develop performance measures for tracking progress towards system goals in a way that addresses the unique and different needs of pedestrians and bicyclists.
    Keywords: Bicycling, Travel Behavior, Networks
    JEL: R40
    Date: 2014
  19. By: Sandip Chakrabarti; Genevieve Giuliano
    Abstract: This paper explores whether service reliability determines transit patronage. Using a unique historical archive of service supply, performance, and patronage data from the Los Angeles Metro bus and rail system, we analyze whether service reliability explains in part the variation in patronage across transit lines during weekday peak and off-peak periods. By estimating a simple single-stage model of transit line patronage, and a simultaneous equations model to address the recognized endogeneity between transit service supply and consumption, we provide conclusive evidence that service reliability is indeed a significant determinant of peak-period patronage. This means that, all else equal, more reliable transit lines can attract more patrons across their service corridors as they are chosen over alternate lines and competing modes. Our paper presents first empirical evidence on the demand for transit service reliability. Results suggest that transit agencies can expect some system-wide patronage gains from reliability improvements. From a policy perspective, reliability investments may be cost-effective means for increasing productivity of transit lines and systems.
    Keywords: Public transportation, Transit service reliability, Public transit policy
    Date: 2014
  20. By: Michael Caldara (Economic Science Institute, Chapman University); Michael McBride (Department of Economics, University of California-Irvine)
    Abstract: Many social and economic networks emerge among actors that only partially observe the network when forming network ties. We ask: what types of network architectures form when actors have limited observation, and does limited observation lead to less efficient structures? We report numerous results from a laboratory experiment that varies both network observation and the cost of forming links. Overall, we find that limited network observation does not inevitably lead to highly inefficient networks but instead might actually inhibit inefficient positional jockeying among actors.
    Keywords: Networks; Limited observation; Coordination
    JEL: C92 D83 D85
    Date: 2014–07
  21. By: Christensen, Pernille
    Abstract: Since the 1970s, we have seen a significant change in the attitudes of the society, governments and the business community toward sustainability measures and regulations. Most recently, the real estate industry has struggled through the mortgage crisis and the global financial crisis resulting in the emergence of a new period in which the real estate industry is addressing sustainability issues using a more holistic, systems approach. Companies are no longer adopting sustainability concerns solely for reasons related to social good; instead, they are focusing on how to prove to their stakeholders that they are focused on sustainable property performance and management - and that sustainability-related initiatives are positively impacting their bottom-line.Current market conditions have forced companies to address market uncertainties, and industry leaders are using sustainability initiatives as a means of managing risks and meeting the requirements of a market in transition. Companies are increasingly judged not only by the corporate social responsibility values, as reflected in their CSR statements, but also by the actions through which those values are actualized and how these actions impact their financial stability. This also extends to how companies make decisions about sustainability initiatives for their real estate assets. These market changes have resulted in new strategies for decision-making and assessment of both specific sustainability initiatives and sustainable real estate. Simons, Slob, Holswilder and Tukker noted that more complex and more integrated strategies will be needed to deal with the new societal challenges now associated with sustainability.
    Date: 2013
  22. By: Sotiris Tsolacos (Centre for Spatial and Real Estate Economics (CSpREE)University of Reading); Chris Brooks (ICMA Centre, Henley Business School, University of Reading); Ogonna Nneji (ICMA Centre, Henley Business School, University of Reading)
    Abstract: This paper employs a probit model and a Markov switching model using information from the Conference Board Leading Indicator series to detect the turning points in four key US commercial rents series. We find that both the approaches based on the leading indicator have considerable power to predict changes in the direction of commercial rents up to two years ahead, exhibiting strong improvements over a naïve model, especially for the warehouse and apartment sectors. The empirical support for the adequacy of these prediction methodologies, from both in-sample and real time forecasting assessments, makes them a valuable tool to real estate professionals forecasting the US real estate markets. We find that while the Markov switching model nominally appears to be more successful in predicting periods of negative growth, it lags behind actual turnarounds in market outcomes whereas the probit is able to detect turning points several quarters ahead.
    Keywords: Leading indicator, US rents, turning point forecasting, direction prediction
    JEL: C53 C34 R39
    Date: 2013–03
  23. By: Nordman, Christophe Jalil (IRD, DIAL, Paris); Pasquier-Doumer, Laure (IRD, DIAL, Paris)
    Abstract: This paper sheds light on the role of family networks in the dynamics of a West African labour market, i.e. in the transitions from unemployment to employment, from wage employment to self-employment, and from self-employment to wage employment. It investigates the effects of three dimensions of the family network on these transitions: its structure, the strength of ties and the resources embedded in the network. For this purpose, we use a first-hand survey conducted in Ouagadougou on a representative sample of 2000 households. Using event history data and very detailed information on family network, we estimate proportional hazard models for discrete-time data. We find that family networks have a significant effect on the dynamics of workers in the labour market and that this effect differs depending on the type of transition and the considered dimension of the family network. The network size appears to not matter much in the labour market dynamics. Strong ties however play a stabilizing role by limiting large transitions. Their negative effect on transitions is reinforced with high level of resources embedded in the network.
    Keywords: family network, labour market dynamics, event history data, survival analysis, Burkina Faso
    JEL: D13 J24 L14
    Date: 2014–07

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