nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2014‒03‒30
34 papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. The Vulnerability of Minority Homeowners in the Housing Boom and Bust By Patrick Bayer; Fernando Ferreira; Stephen L. Ross
  2. Growing through cities in developing countries By Duranton, Gilles
  3. Long-Term Effects of School Size on Students' Outcomes By Humlum, Maria Knoth; Smith, Nina
  4. Sports and Regional Growth in Sweden - Is a successful professional sports team good for regional economic growth? By Värja, Emelie
  5. Friendship Network in the Classroom: Parents Bias and Peer Effects By Fabio Landini; Natalia Montinari; Paolo Pin; Marco Piovesan
  6. Housing Adequacy Gap for Minorities and Immigrants in the U.S.: Evidence from the 2009 American Housing Survey By Mundra, Kusum; Sharma, Amarendra
  7. Housing Markets, Regulations and Monetary Policy By Xiaojin Sun; Kwok Ping Tsang
  8. The effect of the Spanish Reconquest on Iberian cities By David Cuberes; Rafael González-Val
  9. Do land use policies follow road construction? By Miquel-Àngel Garcia-López; Albert Solé-Ollé; Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal
  10. Foreclosure delay and consumer credit performance By Calem, Paul S.; Jagtiani, Julapa; Lang, William W.
  11. Computational Economic Modeling of Migration By Anna Klabunde
  12. The role of urban green space for human well-being By Christine Bertram; Katrin Rehdanz
  13. Do High School Peers Have Persistent Effects on College Attainment and Other Life Outcomes? By Robert Bifulco; Jason Fletcher; Sun Jung Oh; Stephen L. Ross
  14. Spatial and scenario analyses of long distance coach transport in Italy. By Beria, Paolo; Grimaldi, Raffaele; Debernardi, Andrea; Ferrara, Emanuele; Laurino, Antonio
  15. Immigration and Location Choices of Native-Born Workers in Canada By Aydede, Yigit
  16. Parametric and Nonparametric Analysis of Tax Changes By James Bugden; Iain Fraser; Jeffrey S. Racine; Robert Waschik
  17. Estimating the effect of teacher pay on pupil attainment using boundary discontinuities By Ellen Greaves; Luke Sibieta
  18. Counterfactual Spatial Distributions By Paul E. Carrillo; Jonathan Rothbaum
  19. Urban ecosystem services: literature review and operationalization for the case of Brussels By Stephan Kampelmann
  20. Impact of Playworks on Play, Physical Activity, and Recess: Findings from a Randomized Controlled Trial. By Susanne James-Burdumy
  21. Ethnic Disparities in the Transition to Home Ownership By Zorlu, Aslan; Mulder, Clara H.; van Gaalen, Ruben
  22. When police patrols matter. The effect of police proximity on citizens’ crime risk perception By Daniel Montolio; Simón Planells-Struse
  23. Anticipated vs. Unanticipated House Price Movements and Transaction Volume By Arslan, Yavuz; Kanik, Birol; Köksal, Bülent
  24. Education, Health and Wages By James J. Heckman; John Eric Humphries; Gregory Veramendi; Sergio Urzúa
  25. Constructing value for culture: The evolution of local cultural industriesÕ policies and governance in North-East Italy By Lorenzo Mizzau
  26. The structure of ethnic networks and exports: Evidence from Germany By Behncke, Nadine
  27. Internal and External Effects of R&D Subsidies and Fiscal Incentives: Empirical Evidence Using Spatial Dynamic Panel Models By Benjamin Montmartin; Marcos Herrera
  28. Climate Amenities and Adaptation to Climate Change: A Hedonic-Travel Cost Approach for Europe By Salvador Barrios; J. Nicolás Ibañez Rivas
  29. Impact of Internal Migration on Political Participation in Turkey By Akarca, Ali T.; Tansel, Aysit
  30. Educational Diversity and Knowledge Transfers via Inter-Firm Labor Mobility By Marino, Marianna; Parrotta, Pierpaolo; Pozzoli, Dario
  31. Sustainable renovation strategy in the Swedish Million Homes Programme: A case study By Lind, Hans; Annadotter, Kerstin; Björk, Folke; Högberg, Lovisa; af Klintberg, Tord
  32. The Evolution of the (Likely to be) Future Poor:Primary School Non-Completion in Indonesia, 1991–2012 By Andy Sumner
  33. How Placing Limitations on the Size of Personal Networks Changes the Structural Properties of Complex Networks By Somayeh Koohborfardhaghighi; Jorn Altmann
  34. Does Urbanization Help Poverty Reduction in Rural Areas? Evidence from a Developing Country By Nguyen Viet Cuong

  1. By: Patrick Bayer (Duke University); Fernando Ferreira; Stephen L. Ross (University of Connecticut)
    Abstract: This paper examines mortgage outcomes for a large, representative sample of individual home purchases and refinances linked to credit scores in seven major US markets in the recent housing boom and bust. We find that among those with similar credit scores, black and Hispanic homeowners had much higher rates of delinquency and default in the downturn. These differences are not explained by the likelihood of receiving a subprime loan or by differential exposure to local shocks in the housing and labor market and are especially pronounced for loans originated near the peak of the boom. There is also heterogeneity within minorities: black and Hispanics that live in areas with lower employment rates and that have high debt to income ratios are the driving force of the observed racial differences in foreclosures and delinquencies. Our findings suggest that those black and Hispanic homeowners drawn into the market near the peak were especially vulnerable to adverse economic shocks and raise serious concerns about homeownership as a mechanism for reducing racial disparities in wealth.
    Keywords: Mortgage, Foreclosure, Delinquency, homeownership, minority, wealth disparities
    JEL: I38 J15 J71 R21
    Date: 2014–03
  2. By: Duranton, Gilles
    Abstract: This paper examines the effects of urbanization on development and growth. It begins with a labor market perspective and emphasizes the importance of agglomeration economies, both static and dynamic. It then argues that more productive jobs in cities do not exist in a void and underscores the importance of job and firm dynamics. In turn, these dynamics are shaped by the broader characteristics of urban systems. A number of conclusions are drawn. First, agglomeration effects are quantitatively important and pervasive. Second, the productive advantage of large cities is constantly eroded and must be sustained by new job creation and innovation. Third, this process of creative destruction in cities, which is fundamental for aggregate growth, is determined in part by the characteristics of urban systems and broader institutional features. The paper highlights important differences between developing countries and more advanced economies. A major challenge for developing countries is to reinforce the role of their urban systems as drivers of economic growth.
    Keywords: City Development Strategies,Transport Economics Policy&Planning,Labor Policies,National Urban Development Policies&Strategies,Urban Housing and Land Settlements
    Date: 2014–03–01
  3. By: Humlum, Maria Knoth (Aarhus University); Smith, Nina (Aarhus University)
    Abstract: We estimate the effect of school size on students' long-term outcomes such as high school completion, being out of the labor market, and earnings at the age of 30. We use rich register data on the entire population of Danish children attending grade 9 in the period 1986-2004. This allows us to compare the results of different fixed effect and instrumental variables estimators. We use the natural population variation in the residential catchment areas and school openings and closures to instrument for actual school size. We find a robust positive but numerically fairly small relationship between school size and alternative measures of long-term success in the educational system and the labor market. The positive impact of school size seems mainly to be driven by boys, students from families with a low educational level and students attending schools in urban areas.
    Keywords: school size, high school graduation, student outcomes
    JEL: I21 I28 J24
    Date: 2014–03
  4. By: Värja, Emelie (Örebro University School of Business)
    Abstract: This study investigates whether net inbound migration and per capita income growth of a municipality is affected when a local sports team enters or exits the premium national leagues in ice hockey or soccer in Sweden. Local governments frequently support a local professional team through direct subsidies; beneficial funding of arenas, etc., which often is motivated by alleged, positive externalities through effects on the attractiveness of the municipality as a leisure-travel destination, or place for living or doing business, which ultimately is supposed to enhance the tax base and the tax revenues of the local government. Previous literature on such effects is based on simple models estimated on a selected sample of cities and without consideration of spatial interdependencies between local areas. We carry out a simultaneous estimation of spatial paneldata models of income per capita growth and net migration rates using annual data from all Swedish municipalities from 1995-2011 (except for four municipalit that have changed borders). With this richer modeling framework we still find no evidence of a positive relationship from performance of a local team on any of these two variables.
    Keywords: sports; growth; spatial econometrics; regional growth
    JEL: H71 J61 L83
    Date: 2014–03–21
  5. By: Fabio Landini (Department of Economics, University of Siena); Natalia Montinari (University of Lund); Paolo Pin (University of Siena); Marco Piovesan (Department of Economics, Copenhagen University)
    Abstract: We interview both parents and their children enrolled in six primary schools in the district of Treviso (Italy). We study the structural differences between the children network of friends reported by children and the one elicited asking their parents. We find that the parents’ network has a bias: parents expect peer effects on school achievement to be stronger than what they really are. Thus, parents of low-performing students report their children to be friends of high-performing students. Our numerical simulations indicate that when this bias is combined with a bias on how some children target friends, then there is a multiplier effect on the expected school achievement.
    Keywords: Social networks, primary school, friendships, parents' bias, homophily, peer effects, bonacich centrality
    JEL: D85 I21 Z13
    Date: 2014–01
  6. By: Mundra, Kusum (Rutgers University); Sharma, Amarendra (Elmira College)
    Abstract: Home adequacy for different groups in the U.S. has not been adequately studied. Using the data from the national level American Housing Survey for the year 2009and logit model, this paper finds that there is a significant adequacy difference for Blacks and Hispanics when compared to whites in the U.S. However, that is not the case for immigrants relative to the natives. We also find that then naturalization improves housing adequacy among immigrant homeowners, whereas, the female headed households have a significantly higher home adequacy than that of the male headed households. Similar to the homeownership findings, this paper highlights that the public policies should aim to narrow the home adequacy gap between whites and minorities and encourage naturalization to improve adequacy among immigrant homeowners.
    Keywords: housing adequacy gap structural adequacy, U.S. residential real estate, immigrants, minorities, American Housing Survey, naturalized
    JEL: R2 J15
    Date: 2014–03
  7. By: Xiaojin Sun; Kwok Ping Tsang
    Abstract: We apply the linearized present value model, which allows the log rent-price ratio to be decomposed into the expected present value of all future real interests rates, real housing premia, and real rent growth, to the housing market in 23 U.S. metropolitan areas from 1978 to 2011. Based on the indirect inference bias-corrected VAR estimates, we show that variation in the pricing error accounts for half of volatility of log rent-price ratio, and the remaining volatility is mainly contributed by the expected future real interest rates. In addition, a change in the real interest rate has an immediate impact on the fundamental house price, and the impact is significantly larger for more regulated housing markets.
    Keywords: The Present Value Model, Rent-Price Ratio, House Price, Housing Supply Regulations
    Date: 2013
  8. By: David Cuberes (University of Sheffield); Rafael González-Val (Universidad de Zaragoza & IEB)
    Abstract: This paper studies the effect of the Spanish Reconquest, a military campaign that aimed to expel the Muslims from the Iberian Peninsula, on the population of its most important cities. The almost four centuries of Reconquest offer a “quasi-natural” experiment to study the persistence of population shocks at the city level. Analyzing city growth before and after the onset of the Reconquest, we find that it had a significant negative effect on the population of the main Iberian cities. However, when we control for time effects, we conclude that in most cities this effect was transitory. In order to quantify the duration of the shock driven by the Reconquest we then estimate its average effect on the urban share of these cities considering the time dimension of the entire panel of cities simultaneously and adding city-specific time trends. Our estimates suggest that these cities regained their pre-Reconquest shares on average in less than 100 years. These results are robust to controlling for a large set of country and city-specific socioeconomic indicators and spatial effects. Our findings suggest that the locational fundamentals that determined the relative size of Iberian cities before the Reconquest were more important determinants of the fate of these cities than the direct negative impact that the Reconquest had on their population.
    Keywords: Urban primacy, locational fundamentals, city growth, lock-in effects
    JEL: R12 N9
    Date: 2014
  9. By: Miquel-Àngel Garcia-López (Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona & IEB); Albert Solé-Ollé (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB); Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB)
    Abstract: We study whether local land use policies are modified in response to enhanced demand for building generated by a new highway. We also examine the extent to which this effect affects building activity. We focus on the case of Spain during the last housing boom (1995-2007). We assembled a new database with information about new highway segments and the modification of the land zoning status in nearby municipalities. The empirical strategy compares the variation in the amount of developable land before-after the construction of the highway in treated municipalities and in control municipalities with similar pre-treatment traits. Our results show that, following the construction of a highway, municipalities converted a huge amount of land from rural to urban uses. We also show that new highways have an impact on building activity.
    Keywords: Land use regulation, Highways
    JEL: R4 R52 O2
    Date: 2014
  10. By: Calem, Paul S. (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Jagtiani, Julapa (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Lang, William W. (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia)
    Abstract: The deep housing market recession from 2008 through 2010 was characterized by a steep increase in the number of foreclosures. Foreclosure timelines — the length of time between initial mortgage delinquency and completion of foreclosure — also expanded significantly, averaging up to three years in some states. Most individuals undergoing foreclosure are experiencing serious financial stress. However, extended foreclosure timelines enable mortgage defaulters to live in their homes without making housing payments until the completion of the foreclosure process, thus providing a liquidity benefit. This paper tests whether the resulting liquidity was used to help cure nonmortgage credit delinquency. The authors find a significant relationship between longer foreclosure timelines and household performance on nonmortgage consumer credit during and after the foreclosure process. Their results indicate that a longer period of nonpayment of housing-related expenses results in higher cure rates on delinquent nonmortgage debts and improved household balance sheets. Foreclosure delay may have mitigated the impact of the economic downturn on credit card default. However, credit card performance may deteriorate in the future as the current foreclosure backlog is cleared and the affected households once again incur housing expenses.
    Keywords: Mortgage Default; Foreclosure; Foreclosure Delay; Credit Card Default;
    JEL: G02 G21 G28
    Date: 2014–03–09
  11. By: Anna Klabunde
    Abstract: In this paper an agent-based model of endogenously evolving migrant networks is developed to identify the determinants of migration and return decisions. Individuals are connected by links, the strength of which declines over time and distance. Methodologically, this paper combines parameterization using data from the Mexican Migration Project with calibration. It is shown that expected earnings, an idiosyncratic home bias, network ties to other migrants, strength of links to the home country and age have a significant impact on circular migration patterns. The model can reproduce spatial patterns of migration as well as the distribution of number of trips of migrants. It is shown how it can also be used for computational experiments and policy analysis.
    Keywords: Circular migration; social networks; agent-based computational economics
    JEL: C63 F22 J61
    Date: 2014–02
  12. By: Christine Bertram; Katrin Rehdanz
    Abstract: Most people in Europe live in urban environments. For these people, urban green space is an important element of well-being, but it is often in short supply. We use self-reported information on life satisfaction and different individual green space measures to explore how urban green space affects the well-being of the residents of Berlin, the capital city of Germany. We combine spatially explicit survey data with spatially highly disaggregated GIS data on urban green spaces. We observe a significant, inverted U-shaped effect of the amount of and distance to urban green space on life satisfaction. According to our results, the optimal amount of green space in a 1 km buffer is 36 ha, or 11.5% of the buffer area, and 75% of the respondents have less green space available. Our results are robust to a number of robustness checks
    Keywords: life satisfaction, urban ecosystem services, urban green space, well-being
    JEL: I31 Q51 Q57 R00
    Date: 2014–03
  13. By: Robert Bifulco (Syracuse University); Jason Fletcher; Sun Jung Oh; Stephen L. Ross (University of Connecticut)
    Abstract: Using data from the National Longitudinal Study of Adolescent Health, this study examines the impact of high school cohort composition on the educational and labor market outcomes of individuals during their early 20s and again during their late 20s and early 30s. We find that the positive effects of having more high school classmates with a college educated mother on college attendance in the years immediately following high school decline as students reach their later 20s and early 30s, and are not followed by comparable effects on college completion and labor market outcomes. The results suggest that factors that increase college attendance are not always sufficient to improve college graduation rates and longer term outcomes.
    Keywords: Education, Peer Effects, Cohort Study
    JEL: I21 I24 J15
    Date: 2014–03
  14. By: Beria, Paolo; Grimaldi, Raffaele; Debernardi, Andrea; Ferrara, Emanuele; Laurino, Antonio
    Abstract: In Italy long distance coach services have long played a significant role in connecting the most dispersed part of the country to major destinations, giving an important contribution to social and geographical inclusion, but remaining limited in absolute numbers and receiving marginal attention by the general public and even policy makers. After years of stability, the industry is going to face radical changes in the next years since its liberalisation process, gradually started in 2007, was completed at the end of 2013, changing from exclusive concessions to non-exclusive authorisations. In this paper we perform some spatial and scenario analyses, with particular reference to competing transport modes and new potential markets. The industry supplied more than 88 million bus-km in 2012, serving about 2.6 billion passenger-km. The existing network, providing a particularly extensive service in the South and in the Centre of the country, directly serves 2/3 of Italian population. New opportunities are arising as a consequence of liberalisation, changes in competing modes (in particular long distance railway services) and changes in characteristics of part of the country also as a consequence of more recent internal migration phenomena. Coach services in 2013 are serving only 27,000 origin-destination, including indirect connection, out of about 115,000 formally allowed. Many relations, including some very important in terms of total mobility, are still unexplored and left to competing transport modes (rail and air). Our analyses suggest that the most promising relations for possible new services appear to be those among the Centre and the North-East of the country, with a polarisation on urban areas having limited rail services.
    Keywords: coach, bus, intercity, long distance, express, highway, public transport, transport planning, Italy
    JEL: R4 R40
    Date: 2014
  15. By: Aydede, Yigit
    Abstract: There are two competing views on how immigration would affect local labor markets. When immigrants offer skills similar to those of native-born workers, they may compete directly with them, and this competition may lead to lower economic returns for native-born workers. This view can be called the “substitution†hypothesis. The alternative view is that immigrants may provide “complementary†skills, which can raise the productivity of other workers. If the substitution argument is effective, immigration might lead to out-migration of the nonimmigrant population from a community in the short run. Models in location-choice studies usually examine the migration decision in two separate processes: whether-to and where-to decisions about moving. The present study investigates how location choices of native-born workers can be influenced by the conditions in both the potential destinations and the departure regions. To validate either the substitution or complementary view, we apply choice-specific, clustered fixed-effect response models, which use industry- and occupation-specific regional attributes that allow us to control for unobserved regional heterogeneity as well as to identify regional factors that affect location choices. This study uses the 20 percent sample of the 2006 Census that covers the entire country with 282 census divisions. The results show that location-choice models are sensitive to how regional attributes are defined. When industry-specific immigration density differentials across regions are measured only at destinations, they have strong and negative effects on the location choices of the native born. However, when the models control choice-specific attributes relative to the origin, immigration variables become insignificant on the desirability of destinations.
    Keywords: Immigration, Migration, Crowding Out, Displacement, Mobility
    JEL: J61 J15 R23
    Date: 2014–03–26
  16. By: James Bugden; Iain Fraser; Jeffrey S. Racine; Robert Waschik
    Abstract: In this paper we examine the net effect of several major tax changes in Australia on residential property prices. Specifically, we consider the announcement and introduction effects that resulted from several policy changes including the introduction of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) and the accompanying First Home Owner Grant (FHOG). Using a large data set of residential property sales in Melbourne, Australia, between 1992 and 2002 we estimate various models using parametric and nonparametric methods. While our parametric models suggest that the tax policy changes appear to have a statistically significant impact on house prices, no economically significant impact is detected by our nonparametric models, nor (upon closer inspection) by the parametric models themselves. Given the enormity of the sample size, this provides a telling example of the fundamental difference between statistical and economic significance and its implications for detecting government policy effectiveness.
    Keywords: tax changes, housing, nonparametric methods, hedonic model
    JEL: C14 R21
    Date: 2014–03
  17. By: Ellen Greaves (Institute for Fiscal Studies); Luke Sibieta (Institute for Fiscal Studies)
    Abstract: This paper provides causal estimates of the effect of teacher pay on pupil attainment using a sharp geographical discontinuity in teacher salaries. We compare schools in close proximity to a pay zone boundary to estimate the effect of teacher salary differentials on pupil attainment. We find that these differences in salary scales do translate into differences into actual teacher pay levels. However, we find little evidence that higher teacher salary scales increases pupil attainment in national assessments at age 11, and are able to rule out quantitatively small effects of 0.07 and 0.02 standard deviations in English and maths, respectively. These results imply that variations in teacher pay of the magnitude we observe (around 5%) are unlikely to be effective for attracting and retaining higher quality teachers.
    Date: 2014–03
  18. By: Paul E. Carrillo (Department of Economics/Institute for International Economic Policy, George Washington University); Jonathan Rothbaum (Development Research Group, The World Bank)
    Abstract: The influential contributions of DiNardo, Fortin, and Lemieux (1996), Firpo, Fortin, and Lemieux (2009), Machado and Mata (2005), and Donald, Green, and Paarsch (2000) provide researchers with a useful toolbox to estimate counterfactual distributions of scalar random variables. These techniques have been widely applied in the literature. Typically, the dependent variable of interest has been a scalar and little consideration has been given to spatial factors. In this paper we propose a simple method to construct the counterfactual distribution of the location of a variable across space. We apply the spatial counterfactual technique to assess 1) how much changes in individual characteristics of Hispanics in the Washington, DC, area account for changes in the distribution of their residential location choices, and 2) how changes in the average characteristics of shareholders account for changes in the spatial distribution of new firms in Quito, Ecuador.
    Keywords: Decomposition; Non-parametric Estimation
    JEL: C14 R23 R30
    Date: 2014–03
  19. By: Stephan Kampelmann
    Abstract: We summarise the literature on urban ecosystem (ranging from individual trees to extensive green spaces) and examine how urban ecosystems can be linked to the four main types of ecosystem goods and services. We then propose an empirical strategy for measuring urban ecosystem services in Brussels. We argue that a feasable approach consists in focusing on changes to urban ecosystems induced by neighbourhood revitalisation programmes. We conclude that there is sufficient empirical material allowing to assess, at least in a first approximation, the impact of neighbourhood revitalisation programmes on the provision of ecosystem services within the city of Brussels.
    Date: 2014–03–18
  20. By: Susanne James-Burdumy
    Keywords: Playworks, Physical Activity, Recess, RCT, Randomized Controlled Trial
    JEL: I
    Date: 2014–03–11
  21. By: Zorlu, Aslan (University of Amsterdam); Mulder, Clara H. (University of Groningen); van Gaalen, Ruben (Statistics Netherlands)
    Abstract: This paper examines ethnic disparities in the transition to home ownership using longitudinal register data from the Netherlands. The study performs a discrete duration model to account for individual and parental background and neighbourhood conditions. Subsequently, the size of explained variance in the home ownership gap between Dutch and ethnic minority groups is estimated using the Oaxaca-Fairlie non-linear decomposition method. The analysis indicates that the home ownership gap is the highest for Moroccans (0.07) of which only 0.042 is explained by the observed characteristics. For Turkish residents, 0.043 of the total 0.046 gap is explained by their background characteristics. The estimated transition rate to home ownership for Surinamese migrants would have been slightly higher than for Dutch residents if they had the same characteristics as Dutch residents. Western migrants have the smallest gap (0.024), of which 0.021 is explained by their observed characteristics.
    Keywords: immigrants, housing tenure, discrete time duration, non-linear decomposition
    JEL: R21
    Date: 2014–03
  22. By: Daniel Montolio (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB); Simón Planells-Struse (Universitat de Barcelona & IEB)
    Abstract: Crime risk perception is known to be an important determinant of individual well-being. It is therefore crucial that we understand the factors affecting this perception so that governments can identify the (public) policies that might reduce it. Among such policies, public resources devoted to policing emerge as a key instrument not only for tackling criminal activity but also for impacting on citizens’ crime risk perception. In this framework, the aim of this study is to analyze both the individual and neighbourhood determinants of citizens’ crime risk perception in the City of Barcelona (Spain) focusing on the effect of police proximity and taking into account the spatial aspects of neighbourhood characteristics. After controlling for the possible problems of the endogeneity of police forces and crime risk perception and the potential sorting of individuals across neighbourhoods, the results indicate that crime risk perception is reduced when non-victims exogenously interact with police forces. Moreover, neighbourhood variables, such as proxies of social capital and the level of incivilities, together with individual characteristics have an impact on citizens’ crime risk perception.
    Keywords: Crime risk perception, police forces, multilevel ordered logit model
    JEL: C21 H50 K42
    Date: 2014
  23. By: Arslan, Yavuz; Kanik, Birol; Köksal, Bülent
    Abstract: Using data from England and Wales, we analyze the relationship between house prices and transaction volume (number of houses sold) and find that there is a negative relationship. When we decompose price changes into anticipated and unanticipated components we find that while anticipated house price changes positively affect transaction volume, unanticipated price changes have a negative effect. These findings give insights for the theories which try to explain the relationship between house prices and transaction volume. Our findings are inconsistent with the down-payment effect approach developed by Stein (1995) and with the loss aversion behavior approach discussed by Genesove and Mayer (2001). However, our results support the evidence of asymmetric decisions on the buyer and seller side documented in Case and Shiller (1988).
    Keywords: house prices; expectations; transaction volume
    JEL: D8 G1 R3
    Date: 2014–03
  24. By: James J. Heckman; John Eric Humphries; Gregory Veramendi; Sergio Urzúa
    Abstract: This paper develops and estimates a model with multiple schooling choices that identifies the causal effect of different levels of schooling on health, health-related behaviors, and labor market outcomes. We develop an approach that is a halfway house between a reduced form treatment effect model and a fully formulated dynamic discrete choice model. It is computationally tractable and identifies the causal effects of educational choices at different margins. We estimate distributions of responses to education and find evidence for substantial heterogeneity in unobserved variables on which agents make choices. The estimated treatment effects of education are decomposed into the direct benefits of attaining a given level of schooling and indirect benefits from the option to continue on to further schooling. Continuation values are an important component of our estimated treatment effects. While the estimated causal effects of education are substantial for most outcomes, we also estimate a quantitatively important effect of unobservables on outcomes. Both cognitive and socioemotional factors contribute to shaping educational choices and labor market and health outcomes. We improve on LATE by identifying the groups affected by variations in the instruments. We find benefits of cognition on most outcomes apart from its effect on schooling attainment. The benefits of socioemotional skills on outcomes beyond their effects on schooling attainment are less precisely estimated.
    JEL: C32 C38 I12 I14 I21
    Date: 2014–03
  25. By: Lorenzo Mizzau (Dept. of Management, Università Ca' Foscari Venice)
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to delve into the processes whereby cultural industries are interpreted by cultural, political and administrative actors, generating diverse and often unpredictable cultural, economic and social effects. By drawing evidence from a field project on the movie and audiovisual sector in North-East Italy, I explore the actual practices and micro-dynamics of local audiovisual policies formation, examining how they emerge from a continuous and complex interaction between (purposive) cultural actors and (interactive) policymakers and institutions through time. The results from a comparative case study analysis show how different patterns of interaction lead to different outcomes in terms of the effective functioning of the local cultural industry sector, and how this relationship Ð albeit a complex, multifaceted one Ð is mediated by the internal networking capability and proactivity of cultural actors. In the two patterns found, in fact, local actors were differently capable to influence institutions and by consequence to act upon the local audiovisual and movie sectors.
    Keywords: cultural industries, cultural policy formation, film and audiovisual industry, governance
    JEL: L82 M13 R38 Z10
    Date: 2014–03
  26. By: Behncke, Nadine
    Abstract: This paper provides evidence of the effect of immigration-based networks on German trade. Germany presents a particular interesting case study to examine the effect of ethnic networks on exports due to its high export dependence and its reserved migration policy. According to our results, we find no trade creating effect from migrant networks on exports but on imports, highlighting the importance of the demand effect for Germany. Allowing for heterogeneous network effects shows that at least some migrant networks positively affect exports. However, the most efficient migrant networks do not originate from EU countries but from African or middle-eastern countries that do not have a large migrant network in Germany. --
    Keywords: migrants,networks,gravity
    JEL: F12 F1
    Date: 2014
  27. By: Benjamin Montmartin (GREDEG CNRS; University of Nice Sophia Antipolis, France); Marcos Herrera (CONICET - IELDE; National University of Salta, Argentina)
    Abstract: Most studies evaluating the macroeconomic effects of financial support policies on business-funded R&D use econometric methods that do not consider the existence of spatial effects, and generate biased estimates. In this paper, we discus and address this problem using spatial dynamic panel data methods. This allow us to provide new insights on the internal (in-country) and external (out-of-country) effects of both Research and Development (R&D) subsidies and fiscal incentives. We use a database of 25 OECD countries for the period 1990-2009. In relation to internal effects, for both instruments, we find a non-linear relationship between their effect on private R&D and their level (suggesting the possibility of leveraging and crowding-out effects). We also find a substitution effect between the R&D subsidies and fiscal incentives implemented within a country. Concerning the spatial component, we find evidence of positive spatial spillovers among private R&D investments. However, our results suggest the existence of competition/substitution effects between national R&D policies.
    Keywords: Direct and Indirect support, Business-funded R&D, Complementarity, Dynamic spatial panel data
    JEL: H25 O31 O38
    Date: 2014–03
  28. By: Salvador Barrios (Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Joint Research Centre, European Commission); J. Nicolás Ibañez Rivas (Institute for Prospective Technological Studies, Joint Research Centre, European Commission)
    Abstract: We investigate the impact of climatic change on welfare in European regions using a hedonic travel-cost framework and focusing on tourism demand. Our hedonic price estimations combine detailed hotel price information with tourism-specific travel cost estimations for each pair of EU region. This approach allows us to estimate different valuations of climate amenities depending on time duration of holidays. In our analysis of adaptation to climate change we therefore consider holiday duration as variable of adaptation. Our findings suggest that the rise in temperature in preferred destination choices during the summer season (i.e. southern EU) is likely to yield significant welfare losses. As a result European tourists are more likely to spend shorter (and more frequent) holidays and to diversify their destination choices in order to mitigate these losses.
    Keywords: Climate Change, Hedonic Prices, Travel Cost, Tourism, Europe
    JEL: L8 Q5
    Date: 2014–02
  29. By: Akarca, Ali T. (University of Illinois at Chicago); Tansel, Aysit (Middle East Technical University)
    Abstract: During last sixty years, Turkish population moved from one province to another at the rate of about 7-8 percent per five-year interval. As a consequence of this massive internal migration, population residing in a province other than the one they were born in increased from 12 percent in 1950 to 39 percent in 2011. Impact of this population instability on provincial turnout rates in 2011 parliamentary election is studied, controlling for the effects of other socio-economic, demographic, political and institutional factors. Consequences of migration both at destinations and origins are considered. According to robust regressions estimated, the relationship between turnout and education is inverse U-shaped, and between turnout and age, U-shaped. The latter reflects generational differences as well. Large population, large number parliament members to be elected from a constituency, participation by large number of parties, and existence of a dominant party depress the turnout rate. A percentage increase in the proportion of emigrants among the people born in a province reduces turnout rate in that province by 0.13 percentage points, while a percentage increase in the ratio of immigrants in the population of a province reduces it by 0.06 percentage points. However, at destinations where large numbers of immigrants from different regions are concentrated, the opportunity afforded to immigrants to elect one of their own, reduces the latter adverse impact significantly and in some cases turns it to positive.
    Keywords: election turnout, internal migration, political participation, Turkey, voter behavior
    JEL: D72 J61
    Date: 2014–03
  30. By: Marino, Marianna (EPFL, Lausanne); Parrotta, Pierpaolo (Maastricht University); Pozzoli, Dario (KORA - Danish Institute for Local and Regional Government Research)
    Abstract: This article contributes to the literature on knowledge transfer via labor mobility by providing new evidence regarding the role of educational diversity in knowledge transfer. In tracing worker flows between firms in Denmark over the period 1995-2005, we find that knowledge carried by workers who have been previously exposed to educationally diverse workforces significantly increases the productivity of hiring firms. Several extensions of our baseline specification support this finding and show that insignificant effects are associated with the prior exposure of newly hired employees to either demographic or culturally diverse workplaces.
    Keywords: educational diversity, knowledge transfer, inter-firm labor mobility, firm productivity
    JEL: J24 J60 L20
    Date: 2014–03
  31. By: Lind, Hans (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology); Annadotter, Kerstin (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology); Björk, Folke (Division of Building Technology); Högberg, Lovisa (Department of Real Estate and Construction Management, Royal Institute of Technology); af Klintberg, Tord (Division of Building Technology)
    Abstract: The first part of the study concerns the concept ”sustainable renovation”. Four parts are identified and then used in the case study: environmental sustainability (including energy efficiency and choice of materials); social sustainability (interpreted as that the current tenants should be able to stay in the area), economic sustainability (the the project does not have to be subsidized and that there is no increase in cost for the social authorities) and finally a new interpretation that is called technical sustainability, which means that solutions with long term reliability is chosen even if this is not necessarily best from an economic and environmental perspective. The second part of the study applies this framework to analyze the renovation strategy of a municipal housing company in the suburbs of Stockholm. This case was chosen because they had clear social ambitions and offered the tenants three alternative renovation options called mini, midi and maxi. Most tenants chose the minialternative and this meant that they could afford to stay and that there was not any increase in the cost for the social authorities. An investment analysis showed that the minialternative had a positive net present value, but that the midi/maxi alternative where more profitable. The company had no specific environmental focus and energy use was only reduced with 8%. Technological sustainability was more important for the company. As a conclusion the study shows that a sustainable renovation is possible but that there are a number of conflicts between the different dimensions of sustainability. Giving more weight to environmental sustainability would increase cost and rents which create problems from a social perspective. From an economic perspective the midi/maxi alternatives were more profitable but then some households would have to move out because too high rents.
    Keywords: housing renovation; sustainable renovation; million-homes programme; Sweden
    JEL: Q58 R30 R38
    Date: 2014–03–21
  32. By: Andy Sumner (King's International Development Institute, King's College London)
    Abstract: The non-completion of primary school and educational attainment in general in Indonesia has been associated with an increased likelihood of being or remaining poor. In light of this, this paper considers the evolution of primary school non-completion using six rounds of the Indonesia Demographic and Health Surveycovering the period 1991–2012. The paper presents new, consistent estimates of the evolution of the incidence of, disparities in, and total composition of, primary education non-completion in Indonesia over two decades by the characteristics of household heads. The paper argues that although such deprivations remain concentrated among households in rural areas and in households with heads not in work or employed in agriculture, counter-intuitively, as deprivations decline,there are growing and sizable proportions in urban and non-agriculture headed households meaning a policy focus largely on the ‘traditional’ characteristics of deprived households might risk missing substantial proportions of the remaining and likely future poor in Indonesia.
    Keywords: Indonesia; deprivation; education; inequality; economic development
    JEL: I32 D63
    Date: 2014–03
  33. By: Somayeh Koohborfardhaghighi (College of Engineering, Seoul National University); Jorn Altmann (College of Engineering, Seoul National University)
    Abstract: People-to-people interactions in the real world and in virtual environments (e.g., Facebook) can be represented through complex networks. Changes of the structural properties of these complex networks are caused through a variety of dynamic processes. While accepting the fact that variability in individual patterns of behavior (i.e., establishment of random or FOAF-type potential links) in social environments might lead to an increase or decrease in the structural properties of a complex network, in this paper, we focus on another factor that may contribute to such changes, namely the size of personal networks. Any personal network comes with the cost of maintaining individual connections. Despite the fact that technology has shrunk our world, there is also a limit to how many close friends one can keep and count on. It is a relatively small number. In this paper, we develop a multi-agent based model to capture, compare, and explain the structural changes within a growing social network (e.g., expanding the social relations beyond one's social circles). We aim to show that, in addition to various dynamic processes of human interactions, limitations on the size of personal networks can also lead to changes in the structural properties of networks (i.e., the average shortest-path length). Our simulation result shows that the famous small world theory of interconnectivity holds true or even can be shrunk, if people manage to utilize all their existing connections to reach other parties. In addition to this, it can clearly be observed that the network¡¯s average path length has a significantly smaller value, if the size of personal networks is set to larger values in our network growth model. Therefore, limitations on the size of personal networks in network growth models lead to an increase in the network¡¯s average path length.
    Keywords: Small-World Network, Complex Networks, Average Shortest Path Length, Size of Personal Networks, Network Growth Model.
    JEL: C02 C6 C15 D85
    Date: 2014–01
  34. By: Nguyen Viet Cuong
    Abstract: Urbanization and poverty have a two-way relationship. Using fixed-effects regression and panel data from household surveys, we estimate the effect of urbanization on income and consumption expenditure of rural households in Vietnam. Then we propose a simple estimate method to estimate the effect of urbanization on rural poverty. It is found that a one percent increase in urbanization leads to a 0.54 percent increase in per capita income and a 0.39 percent increase in per capita expenditure of rural households. In addition, a one percentage point increase in urbanization helps rural households decrease the poverty rate by 0.17 percentage point. However, we find an effect of urbanization on consumption of unhealthy goods: urbanization increases household expenditures on tobacco and wine.
    Keywords: urbanization, household welfare, poverty, impact evaluation, household surveys, Vietnam, Asia.
    JEL: O18 I30 R11
    Date: 2014–02–25

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