nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2013‒11‒02
38 papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Housing Choices and Labor Income Risk By Jansson, Thomas
  2. Educational Achievement and the Allocation of School Resources By Deborah A. Cobb-Clark; Nikhil Jha
  3. UK house prices: convergence clubs and spillovers By Alberto Montagnoli; Jun Nagayasu
  4. Small High Schools and Student Achievement: Lottery-Based Evidence from New York City By Atila Abdulkadiroğlu; Weiwei Hu; Parag A. Pathak
  5. Spatial Spillovers of Foreign Direct Investment: The Case of Vietnam By Toan Thang TRAN; Thi Song Hanh PHAM
  6. The Medium-Term Impacts of High-Achieving Charter Schools on Non-Test Score Outcomes By Will Dobbie; Roland G. Fryer, Jr
  7. Peer Effects in Disadvantaged Primary Schools: Evidence from a Randomized Experiment By Antecol, Heather; Eren, Ozkan; Ozbeklik, Serkan
  8. “Mobility, networks and innovation: The role of regions’ absorptive capacity” By Ernest Miguélez; Rosina Moreno
  9. Market Thickness and the Impact of Unemployment on Housing Market Outcomes By Li Gan; Qinghua Zhang
  10. Indoor Air Quality and Academic Performance By Tess Stafford
  11. Networks and youth labor market entry By Hensvik, Lena; Nordström Skans, Oskar
  12. Business Cycle Implications of Mortgage Spreads By Walentin, Karl
  13. Connecting mobility servicesand spatial territory typology: an application to a former coal mining area in France By Aurélie MAHIEUX; Odile HEDDEBAUT
  14. Media clusters and metropolitan knowledge economy By Karlsson, Charlie; Rouchy, Philippe
  15. Measures on Increasing the Effectiveness of Using Land Resources and Real Estate of Community Property By О. Andrіeіeva
  16. Does the Precision and Stability of Value-Added Estimates of Teacher Performance Depend on the Types of Students They Serve? By Stacy, Brian; Guarino, Cassandra; Reckase, Mark D.; Wooldridge, Jeffrey M.
  17. Childhood Sporting Activities and Adult Labour-Market Outcomes By Charlotte Cabane; Andrew E. Clark
  18. Early Bird Catches the Worm: The Causal Impact of Pre-school Participation and Teacher Qualifications on Year 3 National NAPLAN Cognitive Tests By Diana Warren; John P. Haisken-DeNew
  19. Irish Mortgage Default Optionality By Gregory Connor; Thomas Flavin
  20. “A gravity model of migration between ENC and EU” By Raul Ramos; Jordi Suriñach
  21. Competitors, Complementors, Parents and Places: Explaining Regional Agglomeration in the U.S. Auto Industry By Luis Cabral; Zhu Wang; Daniel Yi Xu
  22. No Escape? The Co-ordination Problem in Heritage Preservation By Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt; Nancy Holman
  23. The effects of local fiscal policy on firm profitability in the Flemish hospitality industry By S. DE SCHOENMAKER; P. VAN CAUWENBERGE; H. VANDER BAUWHEDE
  24. Military Conflict and the Economic Rise of Urban Europe By Mark Dincecco; Massimiliano Gaetano Onorato
  25. The influence of agglomerations on firm profitability By S. DE SCHOENMAKER; P. VAN CAUWENBERGE; H. VANDER BAUWHEDE
  26. An Overview of Urban Vulnerability to Natural Disasters and Climate Change in Central America & the Caribbean Region By Ebru A. Gencer
  27. Shopping Externalities and Self-Fulfilling Unemployment Fluctuations By Greg Kaplan; Guido Menzio
  28. A Quantitative Theory of Credit Scoring By Xuan Tam; Eric Young; Kartik Athreya
  29. Local government allocation of cultural services By Lars Håkonsen; Knut Løyland
  30. "In consideration of the children", really? Adoption of the school-rhythm reform by French municipalities By Cassette, Aurélie; Farvaque, Etienne
  31. Self-assessed health of elderly people in Brussels: does the built environment matter? By DUJARDIN, Claire; lorant, VINCENT; THOMAS, Isabelle
  32. Soft budget constraint but no moral hazard? The Dutch local government bailout puzzle By Merkus, Erik; Allers, Maarten
  33. You Are Who Your Friends Are: An Experiment on Trust and Homophily in Friendship Networks By Fabian Winter; Mitesh Kataria
  34. Pigskin, Tailgating and Pollution: Estimating the Environmental Impacts of Sporting Events By Rhodes, M. Taylor
  35. What Explains House Price Booms?: History and Empirical Evidence. By Michael D. Bordo; John Landon-Lane
  36. Trust and manipulation in social networks By FORSTER, Manuel; MAULEON, Ana; VANNETELBOSCH, Vincent
  37. Understanding the Consumption Behaviors on Electric Vehicles in China - A Stated Preference Analysis By Libo Wu; Changhe Li; Haoqi Qian; ZhongXiang Zhang
  38. Skill Mismatches in the EU: Immigrants vs. Natives By Nieto, Sandra; Matano, Alessia; Ramos, Raul

  1. By: Jansson, Thomas (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)
    Abstract: I show that individuals whose unemployment risk tends to increase more when local home prices fall optimally invest less in owner-occupied housing. Using a unique, Swedish register based database, I find that a one standard deviation increase in the covariance between individually estimated unemployment risks and local home prices implies an average increase in the value of households investments in owner-occupied housing of USD 13,300. Further, I find, in line with the predictions of my theoretical model, that same-industry couples rent more often, but, conditional on ownership, invest USD 9,200 more on average in single-family homes than different-industry couples.
    Keywords: homeownership; housing demand; unemployment; house price risk
    JEL: D12 D14 R21
    Date: 2013–08–01
  2. By: Deborah A. Cobb-Clark (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne; and Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA)); Nikhil Jha (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne)
    Abstract: The school resources – educational outcomes debate has focused almost exclusively on spending levels. We extend this by analysing the relationship between student achievement and schools’ budget allocation decisions using panel data. Per-pupil expenditure has only a modest relationship with improvement in students’ standardised test scores. However, budget allocation across spending categories matters for student achievement, particularly in grade 7. Ancillary teaching staff seems especially important in primary- and middle-school years. Spending on school leadership – primarily principals – is also linked to faster growth in literacy levels in these grades. On the hole, schools’ spending patterns are broadly efficient.
    Keywords: Educational achievement, test scores, school resource allocation
    JEL: I21 I22 I28
    Date: 2013–08
  3. By: Alberto Montagnoli (Division of Economics, University of Stirling); Jun Nagayasu (Graduate School of Systems and Information Engineering,)
    Abstract: This paper uses the log t test to analyse the convergence of house prices across UK regions and the presence of spillovers effects. We find that UK house prices can be grouped into four clusters. Moreover we document the dynamics of the house price spillovers across regions.
    Keywords: Regional house prices, heterogeneity, convergence, spillovers
    JEL: E31 E52
    Date: 2013–10
  4. By: Atila Abdulkadiroğlu; Weiwei Hu; Parag A. Pathak
    Abstract: One of the most wide-ranging reforms in public education in the last decade has been the reorganization of large comprehensive high schools into small schools with roughly 100 students per grade. We use assignment lotteries embedded in New York City's high school match to estimate the effects of attendance at a new small high school on student achievement. More than 150 unselective small high schools created between 2002 and 2008 have enhanced autonomy, but operate within-district with traditional public school teachers, principals, and collectively-bargained work rules. Lottery estimates show positive score gains in Mathematics, English, Science, and History, more credit accumulation, and higher graduation rates. Small school attendance causes a substantial increase in college enrollment, with a marked shift to CUNY institutions. Students are also less likely to require remediation in reading and writing when at college. Detailed school surveys indicate that students at small schools are more engaged and closely monitored, despite fewer course offerings and activities. Teachers report greater feedback, increased safety, and improved collaboration. The results show that school size is an important factor in education production and highlight the potential for within-district reform strategies to substantially improve student achievement.
    JEL: H52 I21 I28 J24
    Date: 2013–10
  5. By: Toan Thang TRAN (Central Institute for Economic Management, Vietnam); Thi Song Hanh PHAM (Sheffield Business School, Sheffield Hallam University)
    Abstract: In an effort to unlock the black box of mixed empirical evidence for productivity spillovers from foreign direct investment in host countries, this paper, using the case of Vietnam, examined the role of geographical proximity and inter firm interaction in determining productivity spillovers of FDI. The spatial productivity model specified based on the empirical spillovers literature and spatial econometric model. This paper confirms negative effect of horizontal spillovers. The distance and interaction are confirmed to be two determinants of the significance of spillover effects. The paper finds the positive backward and negative forward spillovers. Indirect effect (or the inter-regional spillovers) is found about twice to four times higher than the direct effect (or the intra-regional spillovers) but such kind of indirect effect is quickly attenuated for a certain distance. The paper also finds the evidence of the effect arising from the social interaction among local firms in productivity spillovers. The testing results suggest that local firm's productivity is substantially driven by the agglomeration effect and the presence of interand intra-regional FDI.
    Date: 2013
  6. By: Will Dobbie; Roland G. Fryer, Jr
    Abstract: High-performing charter schools can significantly increase the test scores of poor urban students. It is unclear whether these test score gains translate into improved outcomes later in life. We estimate the effects of high-performing charter schools on human capital, risky behaviors, and health outcomes using survey data from the Promise Academy in the Harlem Children's Zone. Six years after the random admissions lottery, youth offered admission to the Promise Academy middle school score 0.283 standard deviations higher on a nationally-normed math achievement test and are 14.1 percentage points more likely to enroll in college. Admitted females are 12.1 percentage points less likely to be pregnant in their teens, and males are 4.3 percentage points less likely to be incarcerated. We find little impact of the Promise Academy on self-reported health. We conclude with speculative evidence that high-performing schools may be sufficient to significantly improve human capital and reduce certain risky behaviors among the poor.
    JEL: J01 J15
    Date: 2013–10
  7. By: Antecol, Heather (Claremont McKenna College); Eren, Ozkan (Louisiana State University); Ozbeklik, Serkan (Claremont McKenna College)
    Abstract: We examine the effect of peer achievement on students' own achievement and teacher performance in primary schools in disadvantaged neighborhoods using data from a well-executed randomized experiment in seven states. Contrary to the existing literature, we find that the average classroom peer achievement adversely influences own student achievement in math and reading in linear-in-means models. Extending our analysis to take into account the potential non-linearity in the peer effects leads to non-negligible differences along the achievement distribution. We test several models of peer effects to further understand their underlying mechanisms. While we find no evidence to support the monotonicity model and little evidence in favor of the ability grouping model, we find stronger evidence to support the frame of reference and the invidious comparison models. Moreover, we also find that higher achieving classes improve teaching performance in math. Finally, using a simple policy experiment we find suggestive evidence that tracking students by ability potentially benefits students who end up in a low achievement class while hurting students in a high achievement class.
    Keywords: peer effects, student achievement, random assignment
    JEL: I21 J24
    Date: 2013–10
  8. By: Ernest Miguélez (Economics and Statistics Division, World Intellectual Property Organization & AQR-IREA & CReAM); Rosina Moreno (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona)
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to assess the extent to which regions’ absorptive capacity determines knowledge flows’ impact on regional innovation intensity. In particular, it looks at the role of the cross-regional co-patenting and mobility of inventors in fostering innovation, and how regions with large absorptive capacity make the most of these two phenomena. The paper uses a panel of 274 regions over 8 years to estimate a regional knowledge production function with fixed-effects. Network and mobility variables, and interactions with regions’ absorptive capacity, are included among the r.h.s. variables to test the hypotheses. We find evidence of the role of both mobility and networks. However, inflows of inventors are critical for wealthier regions, while have more nuanced effects for less developed areas. It also shows that regions’ absorptive capacity critically adds an innovation premium to the benefits to tap into external knowledge pools. Indeed, the present study corroborates earlier work on the role of mobility and networks for spatial knowledge diffusion and subsequent innovation. However, it clearly illustrates that a certain level of technological development is critical to take advantage of these phenomena, and therefore “one-size-fits-all” innovation policies need to be reconsidered.
    Keywords: absorptive capacity, inventor mobility, spatial networks, patents, regional innovation. JEL classification:
    Date: 2013–10
  9. By: Li Gan; Qinghua Zhang
    Abstract: This paper develops a search-matching model to study the impact of the unemployment rate on the housing market in the presence of the thick market effect. We estimate the structural model using Texas city-level data that covers three years, 1990, 2000 and 2010. Our structural estimation helps identify the channel through which the thick market effect amplifies the impact of the unemployment rate on housing market outcomes. Specifically, we show that an increase in the unemployment generates a thinner market, which leads to poorer matching quality on average. As a consequence, prices and the transaction volume both decline more than in the absence of the thick market effect. Simulations based on our estimates predict that a three percentage-point increase in the unemployment rate lowers the price by 7.74% and reduces the transaction volume by 9.98%. In addition, larger cities with more population experience milder changes in prices in response to changes in the unemployment rate compared to smaller cities.
    JEL: L1 R2
    Date: 2013–10
  10. By: Tess Stafford (School of Economics, Australian School of Business, the University of New South Wales)
    Abstract: I examine the effect of school indoor air quality (IAQ) on academic outcomes. I utilize a quasi-natural experiment, in which IAQ-renovations were completed at virtually every school in a single Texas school district at different points in time, combined with a panel of student-level data to control for many confounding factors and thereby uncover the causal effect of IAQ-renovations on academic outcomes. Results indicate that performance on standardized tests significantly improves while attendance is unresponsive to improvements in IAQ. Rough calculations suggest that IAQ-renovations may be a more cost-effective way to improve standardized test scores than class size reductions.
    Keywords: indoor air quality; school renovations; academic performance
    JEL: I21 Q53
    Date: 2013–10
  11. By: Hensvik, Lena (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Nordström Skans, Oskar (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy)
    Abstract: The paper provides an overview of existing knowledge regarding the role played by social networks in the process where young workers are matched to employing firms. We discuss standard theories of why social networks may be an important element in the job-matching process and survey the empirical literature on labor market networks with an emphasis on studies pertaining to the role of social contacts during the school-to-work transition phase. In addition, we present some novel evidence on how contacts established while working during the final year in high school affect youth labor market entry. Finally, we discuss how insights from this literature can be used to improve the quality of social programs targeted towards young workers in the Nordic countries.
    Keywords: Referrals; school-to-work transition; youth unemployment
    JEL: J24 J64 M51 Z13
    Date: 2013–10–14
  12. By: Walentin, Karl (Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of Sweden)
    Abstract: What are the business cycle effects of shocks to the interest rate spread between residential mortgages and government bonds of the corresponding maturity? We start by noting that the mortgage spread (i) has substantial volatility,(ii) is countercyclical and (iii) leads GDP by 2-3 quarters. Using a structural VAR, we find that innovations to the mortgage spread reduce house prices, residential investment, consumption and GDP by both economically and statistically significant magnitudes. Furthermore, the policy interest rate reacts strongly and in an offsetting direction to mortgage spread innovations. These findings highlight the relevance of financial frictions in residential mortgage markets as an unexplored source of business cycles. In addition, we show that unconventional monetary policy which affects the mortgage spread has sizable macroeconomic impact. Our results are robust to the inclusion of a corporate spread
    Keywords: Sources of business cycles; unconventional monetary policy; credit supply; housing demand; house prices; financial frictions
    JEL: E21 E32 E44 E52 R21
    Date: 2013–09–01
  13. By: Aurélie MAHIEUX (IFSTTAR/AME/DEST - Dynamiques Economiques et Sociales des Transports - IFSTTAR - PRES Université Paris-Est); Odile HEDDEBAUT (IFSTTAR/AME/DEST - Dynamiques Economiques et Sociales des Transports - IFSTTAR - PRES Université Paris-Est)
    Abstract: The French National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE) qualifies as “urban unities” every town inside urban agglomerations. But in these urban organizations, centres, suburban and/or rural areas can exist and we suspect they require differentiated and/or specific transport services. Based on an economic approach, the distinction between urban and suburban or rural areas depends on the percentage of active residents working in an urban centre. In a geographic approach, this distinction is based upon physical considerations such as land which has been built on and distances between buildings. Our research field is organised in a wide Urban Transport Authority, the “Syndicat Mixte des Transports (SMT) Artois-Gohelle” and includes 115 towns overall. These towns are globally qualified as urban but they do not share the same degree of transport accessibility. Moreover, they present very different densities of inhabitants. The aim of this paper is to build a typology of towns based on a combination of these factors and to imagine related services that could provide a better choice between car use and Public Transport (PT) use, improving the whole mobility in a context of sustainable development, and Transport Oriented Development (TOD). The developed methodology allows us to establish such a classification for the SMT Artois-Gohelle towns. Based on the Household Travel Inquiries realized in this area in 2005 and 2006, it can be classified by travel behaviour such as commuting for work or travelling for leisure purposes in order to know the different transport modes (TM) used for these journeys. This work is funded by the French Region Nord-Pas-de-Calais and ADEME.
    Date: 2013–01–01
  14. By: Karlsson, Charlie (Jönköping International Business School (JIBS), Center of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies (CESIS) KTH, Sweden); Rouchy, Philippe (Bleking Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: Large media clusters have emerged in a limited number of large cities, characterizing the geographical concentration of the global media industry. This paper starts by exploring the effect of the rapid advancement of Information and Communication Technologies (ICT) had on the media economy. It concludes that the role of the “weightless economy” on media cluster has enhanced its production and distribution functions. We review the specificities of media cluster that ties agglomeration to creative, diversified attributes of production and distribution. The implication is that media firms hold strong tendencies to cluster in urban regions since they make full usage of its resources, namely its export capabilities and import transformation strength. Finally, we invite researchers to consider Jacobs’ metropolitan and global reciprocating system of city growth as a valid unit for analysing media clusters. The question leads envisaging if media clusters' strong metropolitan base allows them to grow further through globalised circuits. The paper concludes that large, media clusters drive on intellectually dense network of information, which can only be cultivated through large agglomerations existing capabilities. Consequently, the research question focuses upon the economic role of knowledge in media creation and export replacement. We emphasize the strength of Jacob’s model of media cluster for understanding its mechanism of value creation and endogenous system of globalisation.
    Keywords: clustering; media industry; agglomeration; weightless economy; creative industry; globalization; regional development
    JEL: L82 R11
    Date: 2013–10–21
  15. By: О. Andrіeіeva (Donbas National Academy of Civil Engineering and Architecture)
    Abstract: The necessity of the rational use and effective management of land resources and real estate of community property as a basic source of addition to the local budgets is defined. Problems of managing land resources and real estate of the city are revealed. Methods and management features of community property of the city are defined. The alternative variants of using the unoccupied real estate and lands of community property are substantiated. Recommendations on increasing the effectiveness of using the communal land resources and urban real estate on the basis of economic and financial, administrative and legal, organizational and informational measures are given. The necessity of creating corresponding pre-conditions is well-proven through the realization of investment and budgetary potential of the market of lands and real estate, providing its transparency, normative and legal functioning, as well as civilized adjusting.
    Keywords: community property, urban lands, urban real estate, lease, sale (alienation), privatization, local budget
    Date: 2013–10–19
  16. By: Stacy, Brian (Michigan State University); Guarino, Cassandra (Indiana University); Reckase, Mark D. (Michigan State University); Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. (Michigan State University)
    Abstract: This paper investigates how the precision and stability of a teacher's value-added estimate relates to the characteristics of the teacher's students. Using a large administrative data set and a variety of teacher value-added estimators, it finds that the stability over time of teacher value-added estimates can depend on the previous achievement level of a teacher's students. The differences are large in magnitude and statistically significant. The year-to-year stability level of teacher value-added estimates are typically 25% to more than 50% larger for teachers serving initially higher performing students compared to teachers with initially lower performing students. In addition, some differences are detected even when the number of student observations is artificially set to the same level and the data are pooled across two years to compute teacher value-added. Finally, the paper offers a policy simulation which demonstrates that teachers who face students with certain characteristics may be differentially likely to be the recipient of sanctions in a high stakes policy based on value-added estimates and more likely to see their estimates vary from year-to-year due to low stability.
    Keywords: teacher quality, teacher labor markets, value-added, education, teacher performance
    JEL: I0 I20 I21 I28 J01 J08 J24 J44 J45
    Date: 2013–10
  17. By: Charlotte Cabane (University of St. Gallen - University of St. Gallen); Andrew E. Clark (EEP-PSE - Ecole d'Économie de Paris - Paris School of Economics - Ecole d'Économie de Paris, PSE - Paris-Jourdan Sciences Economiques - CNRS : UMR8545 - École des Hautes Études en Sciences Sociales [EHESS] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - École normale supérieure [ENS] - Paris - Institut national de la recherche agronomique (INRA))
    Abstract: We here ask whether sports participation at school is positively correlated with adult labour-market outcomes. There are many potential channels for this effect, although, as usual, identifying a causal relationship is difficult. We appeal to two widely-separated waves of Add Health data to map out the correlation between school sports and adult labour-market outcomes. We show that different types of school sports are associated with different types of jobs and labour-market insertion when adult. We take the issue of the endogeneity of sport seriously and use data on siblings in order to obtain estimates that are as close to unbiased as possible. Last, we compare the effect of sporting activities to that of other leisure activities.
    Keywords: Job characteristics ; Education ; Sport ; School
    Date: 2013–10
  18. By: Diana Warren (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne); John P. Haisken-DeNew (Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne)
    Abstract: Using data from the Longitudinal Survey of Australian Children (LSAC), this is the first analysis for Australia to evaluate the impact of attendance at pre-school programs on matched Year 3 nation-wide NAPLAN test outcomes in the domains of Numeracy, Reading, Spelling, Writing and Grammar. We additionally disaggregate the impact of specific teacher qualifications on children’s cognitive outcomes. While one year of learning in Year 3 is represented by about 50 NAPLAN points, we find average pre-school domain effects as much as 10-15 points, mainly driven by the upper quantiles of the NAPLAN distribution. To address causality issues, we use Kernel matching, whereby the ATTs and ATUs are of the magnitude 10 to 20 NAPLAN points, which are reduced only modestly to about 15 points with additional controls for observed ability. NAPLAN score impacts on Numeracy, Reading and Spelling domains are the strongest and significant with the highest increases in NAPLAN scores being attained by children whose pre-school teachers had Diploma or Degree level (high) qualifications, identifying for the first time the crucial nature of teacher qualifications in driving nationally representative long-run pre-school treatment outcomes.
    Keywords: ATT, causal impact, pre-school, NAPLAN, specialised qualification
    JEL: I21 I28 J24
    Date: 2013–10
  19. By: Gregory Connor (Department of Economics Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland, Maynooth); Thomas Flavin (Department of Economics Finance and Accounting, National University of Ireland, Maynooth)
    Abstract: The owner of a residential property subject to a nonrecourse mortgage essentially has a put option against the market value of the property. If the market price of the property falls sufficiently, the owner can surrender the property to the mortgage issuer and in exchange receive full offset of the cashfl?ow liability of the mortgage loan. A similar but diluted put optionality holds for recourse mortgages if there are legal or practical limits to the mortgage issuer?s recourse claim against the owner?s future income. Previous research based on American data fi?nds that put optionality is an important, but not exclusive, determinant of mortgage default. This paper utilizes a database of troubled Irish mortgages to analyze the infl?uence of put optionality on Irish property owners' ?default behaviour. We fi?nd that put optionality is a very important explanatory variable for observed Irish mortgage defaults, complementing and strengthening existing empirical fi?ndings from US mortgage markets.
    Keywords: mortgage default;put optionality
    JEL: R30 G21
    Date: 2013
  20. By: Raul Ramos (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona); Jordi Suriñach (Faculty of Economics, University of Barcelona)
    Abstract: Due to ageing population and low birth rates, the European Union (EU) will need to import foreign labour in the next decades. In this context, the EU neighbouring countries (ENC) are the main countries of origin and transit of legal and illegal migration towards Europe. Their economic, cultural and historical links also make them an important potential source of labour force. The objective of this paper is to analyse past and future trends in ENC-EU bilateral migration relationships. With this aim, two different empirical analyses are carried out. First, we specify and estimate a gravity model for nearly 200 countries between 1960 and 2010; and, second, we focus on within EU-27 migration flows before and after the enlargement of the EU. Our results show a clear increase in migratory pressures from ENC to the EU in the near future, but South-South migration will also become more relevant.
    Keywords: absorptive capacity, inventor mobility, spatial networks, patents, regional innovation. JEL classification: J11, J15, J61, C23, C53
    Date: 2013–10
  21. By: Luis Cabral; Zhu Wang; Daniel Yi Xu
    Date: 2013
  22. By: Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt; Nancy Holman
    Abstract: Conservation areas (CAs) are among the most restrictive English planning policies. Designation implies a significant limitation of owners' control over the shape and appearance of their properties. The policy, however, can also be argued to solve a sort of 'prisoners' dilemma', in which it might be collectively rationale to preserve the character of an area, but an individual homeowner may be tempted to inappropriately alter their property, thus free-riding on nearby properties' character. The net-benefit of the policy depends largely on the existence of positive 'heritage effects' and acknowledgement from homeowners that policy contributes to neighbourhood stability and the preservation of these positive effects. Our results of a mixed-method analysis of close to 1 million property transactions near to about 8000 CAs and 111 interviews with residents in nine representative CAs in Greater London suggest that positive heritage externalities exist and that residents in CAs tend to value their local environments, acknowledge the need for planning control and execute their right to object to neighbour's planning request.
    Keywords: Designation, England, Heritage, Property Value, Prisoner’s Dilemma
    JEL: R52 D23 C7
    Date: 2013–10
    Abstract: Since decades, scholars and policy makers have been interested in how fiscal policy influences entrepreneurship. Until now, research has focused on fiscal policy at the federal or regional level and used macro-economic outcome measures. Considerably less attention was given to how municipal governments can influence economic outcomes at the micro level. The present study examines the effect of municipal taxes, spending and tax compliance costs on firm profitability within the Flemish hospitality industry. This is a unique research setting, since Flemish municipalities have far-ranging fiscal autonomy which has resulted in a proliferation of local taxes, many of which are specific to the hospitality industry. The findings reveal that local taxes have a negative impact on firm profitability, while aggregate public spending has a positive influence. While both influences are economically significant, the tax effect exceeds the public spending impact. Finally, we find no impact of compliance costs from local taxes.
    Date: 2013–10
  24. By: Mark Dincecco (University of Michigan); Massimiliano Gaetano Onorato (IMT Lucca Institute for Advanced Studies)
    Abstract: We present new city-level evidence about the military origins of Europe's economic "backbone", the prosperous urban belt that runs from the Low Countries to northern Italy. Military conflict was a defining feature of pre-industrial Europe. The destructive effects of conflict were worse in the countryside, leading rural inhabitants to relocate behind urban fortifications. Conflict-related city population growth in turn had longrun economic consequences. Using GIS software, we construct a novel conflict exposure measure that computes city distances from nearly 300 major conflicts from 1000 to 1799. We find a significant, positive, and robust relationship between conflict exposure and historical city population growth. Next, we use luminosity data to construct a novel measure of current city-level economic activity. We show evidence that the economic legacy of historical conflict exposure endures to the present day.
    Keywords: conflict, city populations, historical legacy, economic development, GIS
    JEL: O10 N40 N90 P48 R11
    Date: 2013–10
    Abstract: The geographic concentration of retail firms is a remarkable phenomenon. Existing literature suggests that retail firms benefit from spatial concentration in terms of heightened demand. However, the proximity to other firms also intensifies competition and results in higher costs for land and employees. To examine the net impact of these two opposing agglomeration effects, this paper analyzes the impact of localization, urbanization and diversity on firm profitability. The sample consists of Belgian single-establishment retail firms, during the period 2005-2010. The results show that urbanization has a negative and diversity a positive influence on profitability. Furthermore, weak evidence of localization effects is found, depending on the characteristics of the co-located firms. It seems that establishments of multi-establishment firms contribute positively to the profitability of single-establishment firms, while the presence of other single-establishment firms has a negative influence.
    Keywords: profitability, localization, urbanization, diversity
    Date: 2013–10
  26. By: Ebru A. Gencer (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Italy)
    Abstract: Central America and the Caribbean is one of the most hazard-prone regions in the world. In addition, the region is heavily affected by poverty, unemployment, critical management of natural resources, and urban conglomeration in capital cities, especially in the Small Island Developing States, increasing vulnerability and risk to natural disasters and climate change. This paper examines characteristics of urban vulnerability to natural disasters and climate change in the Central America and the Caribbean Region. It argues that even though the region is not vast in size, the diversity within creates different characteristics of vulnerability to natural disasters and thus requires an extensive variety of disaster risk reduction approaches and adaptation techniques.
    Keywords: Urban Vulnerability, Disaster Risk, Central America, the Caribbean
    JEL: Q5 Q54
    Date: 2013–09
  27. By: Greg Kaplan (Princeton University); Guido Menzio (University of Pennsylvania)
    Abstract: We propose a novel theory of self-ful?lling ?uctuations in the labor market. A ?rm employing an additional worker generates positive externalities on other ?rms, because employed workers have more income to spend and have less time to shop for low prices than unemployed workers. We quantify these shopping externalities and show that they are su¢ ciently strong to create strategic complementarities in the employment decisions of di¤erent ?rms and to generate multiple rational expectations equilibria. Equilibria di¤er with respect to the agents?(rational) expectations about future unemployment. We show that negative shocks to the agents?expectations lead to ?uctuations in vacancies, unemployment, labor productivity and the stock market that closely resemble those observed in the US during the Great Recession.
    Keywords: vacancies, unemployment, labor productivity, stock market, Great Recession
    JEL: J01 J20 J21 J60 J68
    Date: 2013–05
  28. By: Xuan Tam (Cambridge University); Eric Young (University of Virginia); Kartik Athreya (Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond)
    Abstract: Starting in the early 1990s credit scoring became widespread and central in credit granting decisions. Credit scores are scalar representations of default risk. They are used, in turn, to price credit, and as a result alter household borrowing and default decisions. We build on recent work on defaultable consumer credit under asymmetric information to develop a quantitative theory of credit scores. We construct and solve a rich and quantitatively-disciplined lifecycle model of consumption in which households have access to defaultable debt, and lenders are asymmetrically informed about household characteristics relevant to predicting default. We then allow lenders to keep record of inferences on the hidden type of a borrower, as well as a binary 'flag' indicating a past default. These inferences arise endogenously from a signalling game induced by borrowers' need to obtain loans. We show how lenders’ inferences evolve over the lifecycle as a function of household behavior in a way that can be naturally interpreted as 'credit scores.' In particular, we first show that lenders' assessments that a household has relatively low default risk matter significantly for the interest rates households pay. We then show that such assessments rise most sharply an d interest rates paid by borrowers fall most sharply (on the order of 5-6 percentage points) when the bankruptcy flag is removed, consistent with work of Musto (2005). Lastly, we compare allocations across information regimes to provide a measure of the social value of credit scores, and the dependence of these measures on lenders' ability to observe borrower characteristics.
    Date: 2013
  29. By: Lars Håkonsen (Telemark Research Institute and Telemark College, Norway); Knut Løyland (Telemark Research Institute, Norway)
    Abstract: In the present paper we analyse the allocation process of cultural services in Norwegian municipalities. The cultural sector on this administrative level is decomposed into the following eight subcategories: children and youth activities, libraries, cinemas, museums, arts dissemination, sports, cultural schools, and other cultural services. By means of budget shares for these eight cultural services and a residual sector consisting of all other municipal services, we estimate a system of demand relations which are interdependently linked to each other by a budget restriction. Our analyses are based on data from 406 out of 429 Norwegian municipalities during the period 2002 to 2010. In the empirical analyses we mainly focus on the effects of income variation for the cultural services. We estimate effects of free income, matching grants to each sector, and user fees and other sector-specific income for each sector. We also estimate crowding-out effects for the cultural sectors of demographic variables indicating higher demand for services like education, child care, and health services. Our results confirm previous results. There are interesting differences within the group of cultural services, and these are partly related to different national standardization and regulation among the cultural services. In the concluding section we discuss some cultural policy implications of the results obtained.
    Keywords: Allocation of cultural services; Local government budget; Demand system
    JEL: Z11 Z18 H72
    Date: 2013–10
  30. By: Cassette, Aurélie; Farvaque, Etienne
    Abstract: This research looks at the determinants of the adoption of the school-rhythm reform by French municipalities. The possibility opened to mayors to adopt the reform sooner (2013) or later (2014) offers the opportunity to measure how much the interests of the children have weighted on the decision. As our results reveal strong partisan biases to be prevalent, and financial reasons to be influential, it can be affirmed that the children's interest has clearly not been the only consideration in mind.
    Keywords: Elections, Budget, Reform.
    JEL: D72 D78 H7 H75
    Date: 2013
  31. By: DUJARDIN, Claire (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium and Institut Wallon d’Evaluation, de Prospective et de Statistiques (IWEPS), Namur, Belgium); lorant, VINCENT (Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Health and Society, Belgium); THOMAS, Isabelle (FRS-FNRS and Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium)
    Abstract: The built environment plays a key role in the strategy of “Aging in Place”. Here, we study the influence of the built environment on the health status of elderly people living in Brussels. Using census and geocoded data, we analysed if built environment factors were associated with poor self- assessed health status and functional limitations of elderly aged 65+. We concluded that the evidence of the built-environment hypothesis is weak and vulnerable to the composition of the neighborhood.
    Keywords: built urban environment, subjective health, elderly, GIS-based measures, logistic regressions, Brussels
    JEL: I10 I14 R23
    Date: 2013–09–23
  32. By: Merkus, Erik; Allers, Maarten (Groningen University)
    Abstract: The fiscal federalism and public choice literatures stress that government bailouts should be avoided as they increase the probability that governments incur unsustainable debt levels or take excessive risk (moral hazard problem). The current problems in the euro area seem to confirm this view. However, in the Netherlands, the law explicitly stipulates that local governments that are unable to balance their books will be bailed out. Surprisingly, this does not seem to create problems. Only few local governments apply for bailout, and the amounts they receive are modest. We analyze the Dutch case and discuss possible explanations for this apparent anomaly. We test empirically if voters punish financial mismanagement in local governments, but find no evidence for this hypothesis.
    Date: 2013
  33. By: Fabian Winter (Max-Planck Institute of Economics, Jena); Mitesh Kataria (Max-Planck Institute of Economics, Jena)
    Abstract: We study the existence of homophily (i.e. the tendency for people to make friends with people who are similar to themselves) with respect to trustworthiness. We ask whether two friends show similarly trustworthy behavior towards strangers, and whether this is anticipated by outsiders. We develop a simple model of bayesian learning in trust games and test the derived hypotheses in a controlled laboratory environment. In the experiment, two trustees sequentially play a trust game with the same trustor, where the trustees depending on treatmen are either friends or strangers to each other. We affirm the existence of homophily with re- spect to trustworthiness. Trustors' beliefs about the trustees' trustfulness are not affected by the knowledge about the (non-)existent friendship between the trustees. Behaviorally, however, they indirectly reciprocate the (un-)trustworthy behavior of one trustee towards his/her friends in later interactions.
    Keywords: social networks, homophily, trust, friendship, indirect tit-for-tat
    JEL: C92 D83 J24 J40
    Date: 2013–10–23
  34. By: Rhodes, M. Taylor (University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the environmental impact of sporting events by analyzing a collection of small typically geographically isolated cities which host at least one NCAA football team that competes in the Division I Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) in 2010. Fixed-effects regressions controlling for differences across cities and across months suggest that cities do experience an increase in pollution levels on and around game days relative to non-game days. These marginal increases were largest in November even after controlling for weather, various trends and other sources of seasonality. When hosting games in November, the corresponding percent increases in daily mortality ranged from .06 to .25% for cardiovascular mortality to .23 to .47% for respiratory mortality.
    Keywords: Pollution; Environmental impact; Sporting events; Mortality
    JEL: I18 L83 Q53 R11 R58
    Date: 2013–10–23
  35. By: Michael D. Bordo; John Landon-Lane
    Abstract: In this paper we investigate the relationship between loose monetary policy, low inflation, and easy bank credit with house price booms. Using a panel of 11 OECD countries from 1920 to 2011 we estimate a panel VAR in order to identify shocks that can be interpreted as loose monetary policy shocks, low inflation shocks, bank credit shocks and house price shocks. We show that loose monetary policy played an important role in housing booms along with the other shocks. We show that during boom periods there is a heightened impact of all three “policy” shocks with the bank credit shock playing an important role. However, when we look at individual house price boom episodes the cause of the price boom is not so clear. The evidence suggests that the house price boom that occurred in the US during the 1990s and 2000s was not due to easy bank credit. Loose monetary policy (as well as low inflation) played some role but the residual which may be picking up other factors such as financial innovation and the shadow banking system is the most important shock. This result is robust to many alternative specifications.
    JEL: N1
    Date: 2013–10
  36. By: FORSTER, Manuel (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium; CES, Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne, France); MAULEON, Ana (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium; CEREC, Université Saint-Louis, Bruxelles, Belgium); VANNETELBOSCH, Vincent (Université catholique de Louvain, CORE, Belgium; CEREC, Université Saint-Louis, Bruxelles, Belgium)
    Abstract: We investigate the role of manipulation in a model of opinion formation where agents have opinions about some common question of interest. Agents repeatedly communicate with their neighbors in the social network, can exert some effort to manipulate the trust of others, and update their opinions taking weighted averages of neighbors’ opinions. The incentives to manipulate are given by the agents’ preferences. We show that manipulation can modify the trust structure and lead to a connected society, and thus, make the society reaching a consensus. Manipulation fosters opinion leadership, but the manipulated agent may even gain influence on the long-run opinions. In sufficiently homophilic societies, manipulation accelerates (slows down) convergence if it decreases (increases) homophily. Finally, we investigate the tension between information aggregation and spread of misinformation. We find that if the ability of the manipulating agent is weak and the agents underselling (overselling) their information gain (lose) overall influence, then manipulation reduces misinformation and agents converge jointly to more accurate opinions about some underlying true state.
    Keywords: social networks, trust, manipulation, opinion leadership, consensus, wisdom of crowds
    JEL: D83 D85 Z13
    Date: 2013–09–23
  37. By: Libo Wu (School of Economics, Fudan University, Center for Energy Economics and Strategy Studies, Fudan University, Fudan-Tyndall Center, China); Changhe Li (School of Economics, Fudan University, China); Haoqi Qian (School of Economics, Fudan University, Center for Energy Economics and Strategy Studies, Fudan University, China); ZhongXiang Zhang (School of Economics, Fudan University, Center for Energy Economics and Strategy Studies, Fudan University, China)
    Abstract: This paper examines how the different characteristics of both electric vehicles themselves and the consumers would influence the consumption behavior on electric vehicles. Data collection is based on the questionnaire design using the orthogonal experimental method and large-scale stated preference survey covering more than 2000 households in 10 central districts of Shanghai. Three types of electric vehicles, i.e. fast charging, battery swapping and slowing charging are investigated according to a set of factors, such as acquisition costs, operation and maintenance costs, charging time and convenience, mileage, preferential policies and so on. We analyze the data with the nested-logit model. Our results suggest that the mode of battery swapping with slowing charging enjoys a relatively higher proportion in Shanghai, though there is no absolutely dominating type. By group classification analysis, the male, the young, the well-educated and the well-paid groups share relatively low proportion of selecting electric vehicles. Furthermore, consumers pay more attention to daily variable usage cost and charging time instead of acquisition costs. All these suggest the necessity for the government to adjust the current supporting policy in order to cultivate the electric vehicle market effectively.
    Keywords: Electric Vehicle, Nested-Logit Model, Stated Preference Experiment, Willingness to Pay
    JEL: Q41 Q42 Q48 Q54 Q55 Q58 C65 C83
    Date: 2013–09
  38. By: Nieto, Sandra (University of Barcelona); Matano, Alessia (University of Barcelona); Ramos, Raul (University of Barcelona)
    Abstract: The objective of this paper is to analyse and explain the factors behind the observed differences in skill mismatches (vertical and horizontal) between natives and immigrants in EU countries. Using microdata from the 2007 wave of the Adult Education Survey (AES), different probit models are specified and estimated to analyse differences in the probability of each type of skill mismatch between natives and immigrants. Next, Yun's decomposition method is used to identify the relative contribution of characteristics and returns to explain the differences between the two groups. Our analysis shows that immigrants are more likely to be skill mismatched than natives, being this difference much larger for vertical mismatch. In this case, the difference is higher for immigrants coming from non-EU countries than for those coming from other EU countries. We find that immigrants from non-EU countries are less valued in the EU labour markets than natives with similar characteristics, a result that is not observed for immigrants from EU countries. These results could be related to the limited transferability of the human capital acquired in non-EU countries. The findings suggest that specific programs to adapt immigrants' human capital acquired in home country are required to reduce differences in the incidence of skill mismatch and a better integration in the EU labour markets.
    Keywords: immigrant overeducation, vertical mismatch, horizontal mismatch, human capital transferability
    JEL: J15 J24 J31
    Date: 2013–10

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