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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Zackary Hawley (Department of Economics, Texas Christian University); Geoffrey Turnbull (Department of Finance, University of Central Florida) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how household social interaction affects housing and location demand in urban settings. The extended Alonso-Muth urban household model shows that the effects on density and location hinge upon the demand relationship between social activities and housing consumption. Stronger tastes for social activities outside the home lead to lower housing demand and decrease demanded distance from the CBD. Stronger tastes for socializing at home have the opposite effects on housing and location demands. The empirical analysis of interaction survey data yields results consistent with the theoretical framework. |
| JEL: | R14 R21 C26 |
| Date: | 2013–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcu:wpaper:201301&r=ure |
| By: | Do Won Kwak (School of Economics, The University of Queensland); Hyejin Ku |
| Abstract: | To separately identify the effects of single-sex “schooling†versus single- sex “schoolsâ€, we exploit two unusual experiments in South Korea: students are randomly assigned to academic high schools within districts regardless of school types, and some schools changed their types from single-sex to coeducational over time. While the overall effects of attending a single-sex school are positive for both boys and girls, these are driven by the differences in resources between school types, rather than classroom gender composition per se. We find that coed (versus single-sex) classroom teaching itself has positive effects for boys, and neutral or negative effects for girls. |
| Date: | 2013–09–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:qld:uq2004:487&r=ure |
| By: | Aysit Tansel (Department of Economics, METU) |
| Abstract: | This paper aims to provide the recent developments on the supplementary education system in Turkey. The national examinations for advancing to higher levels of schooling are believed to fuel the demand for Supplementary Education Centers (SEC). Further, we aim to understand the distribution of the SECs and of the secondary schools across the provinces of Turkey in order to evaluate the spacial equity considerations. The evolution of the SECs and of the secondary schools over time are described and compared. The provincial distribution of the SECs, secondary schools and the high school age population are compared. The characteristics of these distributions are evaluated to inform the about spatial equity issues. The distribution of high school age population that attend secondary schools and the distribution of the secondary school students that attend SECs across the provinces are compared. The evidence points out to significant provincial variations in various characteristics of SECs and the secondary schools. The distribution of the SECs is more unequal than that of the secondary schools. The provinces located mostly in the east and south east of the country have lower quality SECs and secondary schools. Further, the SEC participation among the secondary school students and the secondary school participation among the relevant age group are lower in some of the provinces indicating major disadvantages. The review of the most recent developments about the SECs, examination and comparison of provincial distributions of the SECs and of the secondary schools are novelties in this paper. |
| Keywords: | Supplementary Education, Demand for Education, Turkey |
| JEL: | I20 I21 I22 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:met:wpaper:1310&r=ure |
| By: | Nicholas Beyler; Susanne James-Burdumy; Martha Bleeker; Jane Fortson; Max Benjamin |
| Keywords: | Children, physical activity , intra-individual variation, measurement error model, Playworks |
| JEL: | I |
| Date: | 2013–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:7903&r=ure |
| By: | Takahiro Akita (International University of University); Mark Saliganan Pagulayan (The National Economic and Development Authority (NEDA), Philippines) |
| Abstract: | The Philippines has undergone gradual but substantial changes in industrial structure over the past few decades, and these have been associated with the change in the geographical distribution of economic activity. This study analyzes changes in the determinants of regional income inequality in the Philippines associated with these structural changes from 1975 to 2009. This is accomplished by using the bi-dimensional decomposition method. The reduction of the disparity between the National Capital Region (NCR) and the rest of Luzon is essential to decreasing Luzonfs high within-region inequality and overall interregional inequality. But this is not easy to accomplish, since services sectors have enjoyed agglomeration economies that NCR has nurtured under economic liberalization and globalization. Decentralization has been one way to ameliorate the disparity, but its effects are ambiguous. Another option would be to relocate some manufacturing activities to areas outside NCR where they could enjoy localization economies. |
| Keywords: | structural change, regional income inequality, the Philippines, bi-dimensional decomposition, weighted coefficient of variation |
| JEL: | O18 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iuj:wpaper:ems_2013_14&r=ure |
| By: | Takahiro Akita (International University of University); Ni Made Inna Dariwardani (Central Bureau of Statistics Bali, Indonesia) |
| Abstract: | This study analyzes poverty dynamics by region for urban and rural areas based on the 2008-2010 panel Susenas. It also conducts a probit analysis to explore the determinants of poverty based on the 2008 consumption module Susenas. We found that while 11% of rural people and 7% of urban people are chronically poor, there are a large number of transiently poor people in Indonesia. These transiently poor people have a high risk of falling into poverty occasionally. There is also a large difference in the extent of chronic and transient poverty among regions. While the government should implement policies to alleviate chronic poverty, it should at the same time introduce policies that could keep transiently poor people above the poverty line. Since there is a large regional variation in the extent of poverty, spatially differentiated poverty alleviation programs should be introduced according to the extent and nature of poverty. |
| Keywords: | chronic and transient poverty, poverty dynamics, spatial perspective, panel data, Indonesia |
| JEL: | I30 O10 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iuj:wpaper:ems_2013_19&r=ure |
| By: | Brian Gill; Julie Bruch; Kevin Booker |
| Keywords: | teacher effectiveness, alternative assessment , student growth, valued added, student learning objectives |
| JEL: | I |
| Date: | 2013–09–30 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:7896&r=ure |
| By: | Takahiro Akita (International University of University); Sachiko Miyata (Rikkyo University) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes the roles of location (rural and urban sectors) and education in the distribution of economic well-being in Indonesia by employing the hierarchical and non-hierarchical decomposition methods of the Theil indices. This is done by using household expenditure data from the national socio-economic survey (Susenas) in 2008. It shows that there are large expenditure disparities across education levels but that these are more pronounced in the urban sector than the rural sector. When there are differences in educational structure between the rural and urban sectors, the hierarchical decomposition method appears to offer a better approach than the non-hierarchical method. |
| Keywords: | Inequality; Hierarchical and non-hierarchical decompositions; Theil indices; Urban and rural locations; Education; Indonesia |
| JEL: | O15 O18 R12 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iuj:wpaper:ems_2013_15&r=ure |
| By: | Martin Fischer; Martin Karlsson; Therese Nilsson |
| Abstract: | Theoretically, there are several reasons to expect education to have a positive effect on health, and empirical research suggests that education can be an important health determinant. However, it has not yet been established whether education and health are indeed causally-related, and the effects found in previous studies may be partially attributable to methodological weaknesses. Moreover, existing evidence on the education-health relationship using information of schooling reforms for identication generally uses information from fairly recent reforms implying that health outcomes are observed only over a limited time period. This paper examines the effect of education on mortality using information on a national roll-out of a reform leading to one extra year of compulsory schooling in Sweden. In 1936, the national government made a seventh school year compulsory; however, the implementation was decided at the school district level, and the reform was implemented over a period of 12 years. Taking advantage of the variation in the timing of the implementation across school districts by using county-level proportions of reformed districts, census data and administrative mortality data, we find that the extra compulsory school year reduced mortality. In fact, the mortality reduction is discernible already before the age of 30 and then grows in magnitude until the age of 55–60. |
| Keywords: | Returns to schooling; education reform; mortality |
| JEL: | I12 I14 I18 I21 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rwi:repape:0441&r=ure |
| By: | Aurora A.C. Teixeira (CEF.UP, Faculdade de Economia, Universidade do Porto; INESC Porto; OBEGEF; UTEN) |
| Abstract: | The empirical literature focusing mainly on the USA suggests that class absenteeism undermines students’ academic performance and that an enforced mandatory attendance policy may be beneficial. Based on a different cultural and economic context, and using data on 146 second-year management students enrolled in a Macroeconomics course at an elite economics school in Portugal, it is shown that even when controlling for potential endogenous factors associated to attendance and academic performance, absenteeism considerably lowers the students’ final grade (about 2 points in a 0-20 point grading scheme). In addition, it is established that a compulsory, though flexible, attendance policy contributes to improving students’ academic performance. |
| Keywords: | Absenteeism; Academic performance; Economics; Management; University; Portugal |
| JEL: | I21 I29 J22 J24 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:por:fepwps:503&r=ure |
| By: | Itai Ater (Recanati Business School, Tel Aviv University); Eugene Orlov (Compass Lexecon); |
| Abstract: | How did the diffusion of the Internet affect performance and product quality in the airline industry? We argue that the shift to online distribution channels has changed the way airlines compete for customers - from an environment in which airlines compete for space at the top of travel agents’ computer screens by scheduling the shortest flights, to an environment where price plays the dominant role in selling tickets. Using flight-level data between 1997 and 2007 and geographical growth patterns in Internet access, we find a positive relationship between Internet access and scheduled flight times. The magnitude of the effect is larger in competitive markets without low-cost carriers and for flights with shortest scheduled times. We also find that despite longer scheduled flight times, flight delays increased as passengers gained Internet access. More generally, these findings suggest that increased Internet access may adversely affect firms' performance and firms’ incentives to provide high quality products. |
| Keywords: | Internet, Search, Air Travel, Quality |
| JEL: | D83 L15 L93 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:net:wpaper:1307&r=ure |
| By: | Manuel Portugal Ferreira (Instituto Politécnico de Leiria); Fernando Ribeiro Serra (Uninove – Universidade Nove de Julho); Benny Kramer Costa (Uninove – Universidade Nove de Julho); Emerson Maccari (Uninove – Universidade Nove de Julho); Hergos Couto (Uninove – Universidade Nove de Julho) |
| Abstract: | The ability to generate innovations and capture the rents from innovation are important for firms’ competitive advantage. Increasingly firms seek knowledge abundant locations, or industry clusters, to access novel knowledge and generate innovations through knowledge recombinations (Schumpeter, 1934). We examine how different types of clusters impact on the innovation output, the knowledge flows among the clustered firms and, ultimately, on who captures the rents from innovation. The type of cluster reflects the configuration of firms and the interactions among firms, individuals and agencies in the cluster and is likely to be a major driver of both the innovative output and of which firms will be more likely to capture the rents from innovation. Extant research has noted that the social and business networks binding firms in clusters are excellent vehicles for the flow of knowledge that eases innovations, but different types of clusters may lead to different outcomes. |
| Keywords: | clusters; types of clusters; innovation; appropriation of rents; innovation rents |
| JEL: | M0 M1 |
| Date: | 2013–09–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pil:wpaper:102&r=ure |
| By: | Christophe Andre (Economics Department, Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD)); Luis A. Gil-Alana (University of Navarra, Faculty of Economics, Edificio Biblioteca, Entrada Este, E-31080 Pamplona, Spain); Rangan Gupta (Department of Economics, University of Pretoria) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses comovement in housing prices across the euro area. We use techniques based on the concepts of fractional integration and cointegration. Our results indicate that all the individual log-real price indices series display orders of integration which are above one, implying long memory in their corresponding growth rates. Further, looking at the cointegration relationships, we observe that the data for the euro area are cointegrated with Belgium, Germany and France, and the first two countries seem to be cointegrated with the majority of other countries in pairwise comparisons. Finally, prices in Germany seem to move in the opposite direction from other countries, which may be related to capital flows associated with current account imbalances. |
| Keywords: | prices, euro area, Fractional cointegration, Persistence, Long memory |
| JEL: | C22 E39 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pre:wpaper:201359&r=ure |
| By: | Cornelissen, Thomas (University College London); Dustmann, Christian (University College London); Schönberg, Uta (University College London) |
| Abstract: | Existing evidence on peer effects in a work environment stems from either laboratory experiments or from real-word studies referring to a specific firm or specific occupation. Yet, it is unclear to what extent these findings apply to the labor market in general. In this paper, therefore, we investigate peer effects in the workplace for a representative set of workers, firms, and occupations with a focus on peer effects in wages rather than productivity. Our estimation strategy – which links the average permanent productivity of workers' peers to their wages – circumvents the reflection problem and accounts for the endogenous sorting of workers into peer groups and firms. On average, we find only small peer effects in wages. We also find small peer effects in the type of high skilled occupations which more closely resemble those used in studies on knowledge spillover. In the type of low skilled occupations analyzed in existing studies on social pressure, in contrast, we find larger peer effects, about half the size of those identified in similar studies on productivity. |
| Keywords: | knowledge spillover, social pressure, wage structure |
| JEL: | J24 J31 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7617&r=ure |
| By: | Paulo Bastos (Research Department, Inter-American Development Bank, United States); Odd Rune Straume (Department of Economics, University of Minho) |
| Abstract: | We examine if an expansion in the supply of public preschool crowds-out private enrollment using rich data for municipalities in Brazil from 2000-2006, where federal transfers to local governments change discontinuously with given population thresholds. Results from a regression-discontinuity design reveal that larger federal transfers lead to a significant expansion of local public preschool services, but show no effects on the quantity or quality of private provision. These findings are consistent with a theory in which households differ in willingness-to-pay for preschool services, and private suppliers optimally adjust prices in response to an expansion of lower-quality, free-of-charge public supply. |
| Keywords: | Preschool education; private and public provision; crowding-out. |
| JEL: | D12 I21 I28 L21 O15 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nip:nipewp:16/2013&r=ure |
| By: | BIA Michela; VAN KERM Philippe |
| Abstract: | This note describes a Stata implementation of a space-filling location selection algorithm. It optimally selects a subset from an array of locations so that the spatial coverage of the array by the selected subset is optimized according to a geometric criterion. Such an algorithm is useful in site selection problems, but also in various non-parametric estimation procedures, e.g. to select (multivariate) knot locations in spline regression analysis. |
| Keywords: | spatial sampling; space-filling design; site selection; multivariate knot selection; point-swapping |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:irs:cepswp:2013-17&r=ure |
| By: | Danzer, Natalia (Ifo Institute for Economic Research); Lavy, Victor (Hebrew University, Jerusalem) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the question whether long-term human capital outcomes are affected by the duration of maternity leave, i.e. by the time mothers spend at home with their newborn before returning to work. Employing RD and difference-in-difference approaches, this paper exploits an unanticipated reform in Austria which extended the maximum duration of paid and job protected parental leave from 12 to 24 months for children born on July 1, 1990 or later. We use test scores from the Austrian PISA test of birth cohorts 1990 and 1987 as measure of human capital. The evidence suggest no significant overall impact of the extended parental leave mandate on standardized test scores at age 15, but that the subgroup of boys of highly educated mothers have benefited from this reform while boys of low educated mothers were harmed by it. |
| Keywords: | parental leave reform, maternal employment, human capital, child development, cognitive skills |
| JEL: | J13 J24 J22 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp7626&r=ure |
| By: | Menno Pradhan; Daniel Suryadarma; Amanda Beatty; Maisy Wong; Arya Gaduh; Armida Alisjahbana; Rima Prama Artha |
| Keywords: | Educational Quality, Indonesia, Randomized Field Experiment |
| JEL: | F Z |
| Date: | 2013–10–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:7902&r=ure |
| By: | Manuel Portugal Ferreira (Instituto Politécnico de Leiria); Fernando Ribeiro Serra (Uninove – Universidade Nove de Julho); Emerson Maccari (Uninove – Universidade Nove de Julho) |
| Abstract: | Innovating firms face the dilemma of knowing when they will be able to appropriate the rents accruing from their innovations. Only the future value of the rents creates an incentive to innovate, and all innovations that are either imitated or improved upon by competitors preempt the innovator firms from capturing their rents. In this conceptual paper, we observe boundary conditions under which protection guarantees appropriation. A paradox emerges in that innovators benefit from networking and bandwagon effects but not from total diffusion of the knowledge. While networks are excellent vehicles for innovation, the business and social ties connecting firms deepen the hazards associated to the appropriation of rents. |
| Keywords: | innovation, innovation rent, network ties, diffusion of knowledge, bandwagon effects, complementary assets |
| JEL: | M0 M1 |
| Date: | 2013–09–29 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pil:wpaper:101&r=ure |
| By: | Junjie Zhou (School of International Business Administration, Shanghai University of Finance and Economics); Ying-Ju Chen (University of California at Berkeley); |
| Abstract: | As a common practice, various firms initially make information and access to their products/services scarce within a social network; identifying influential players that facilitate information dissemination emerges as a pivotal step for their success. In this paper, we tackle this problem using a stylized model that features payoff externalities and local network effects, and the network designer is allowed to release information to only a subset of players (leaders); these targeted players make their contributions first and the rest followers move subsequently after observing the leaders' decisions. In the presence of incomplete information, the signaling incentive drives the optimal selection of leaders and can lead to a first-order materialistic effect on the equilibrium outcomes. We propose a novel index for the key leader selection (i.e., a single player to provide information to) that can be substantially different from the key player index in \ \cite{ballester2006s} and the key leader index with complete information proposed in \cite{zhou13benefit}. We also show that in undirected graphs, the optimal leader group identified in \cite{zhou13benefit} is exactly the optimal follower group when signaling is present. The pecking order in complete graphs suggests that the leader should be selected by the ascending order of intrinsic valuations. We also examine the out-tree hierarchical structure that describes a typical economic organization. The key leader turns out to be the one that stays in the middle, and it is not necessarily exactly the central player in the network. |
| Keywords: | social network, signaling, information management, targeted advertising, game theory |
| JEL: | D21 D29 D82 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:net:wpaper:1304&r=ure |
| By: | Josef Montag (Faculty of Business and Economics, Mendel University in Brno) |
| Abstract: | This study examines short- and long-run effects of a new—stricter—road traffic law on traf- fic accident-related fatalities in the Czech Republic. The law introduced tougher punishments through the introduction of a demerit point system and a manifold increase in fines, together with augmented authority of traffic police. Identification is based on difference-in-differences methodology, with neighbouring countries serving as a control group. I find a sharp, 33.3%, decrease in accident-related fatalities during the first three post-reform months. This trans- lates into 127 saved lives (95% confidence interval: 51, 204). The decline was, however, temporary; the estimates of the effects going beyond the first year are around zero. Unique data on traffic police activity reveal that police resources devoted to traffic law enforcement gradually declined. Tougher penalties have significant, but often short-lived effects. Weaker enforcement in the aftermath of such reforms may explain the absence of long-run effects. |
| Keywords: | traffic law, traffic accidents, demerit point system, law enforcement |
| JEL: | J28 I12 I18 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:men:wpaper:39_2013&r=ure |
| By: | Mason Gaffney (Department of Economics, University of California Riverside) |
| Date: | 2013–05 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucr:wpaper:201304&r=ure |
| By: | Catherine Haeck; Pierre Lefebvre; Philip Merrigan |
| Abstract: | More than ten years ago, to increase mothers’ participation in the labour market and to enhance child development, the province of Québec implemented a $5 per day universal childcare policy. This paper provides a comprehensive review of the costs and benefits of the program over that period. A non-experimental evaluation framework based on multiple pre- and post-treatment periods is used to estimate the policy effects. We find that the reform had important and lasting effects on the number of children aged 1 to 4 attending childcare and the numbers of hours they spend in daycare. For children aged 5, we uncovered strong evidence that implementing full-day kindergarten alone was not enough to increase maternal labour force participation and weeks worked, but when combined with the low-fee daycare program it was, and these effects were also long lasting. Our results on cognitive development suggest that the school setting is more successful in raising children’s cognitive ability than the daycare setting. Finally, we show that the fiscal costs were most likely larger than the benefits. |
| Keywords: | Childcare policy, mother's labour supply, preschool children and school readiness, treatment effects, natural experiment |
| JEL: | H42 J21 J22 |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lvl:lacicr:1334&r=ure |
| By: | Angelo Mele (Johns Hopkins University - Carey Business School) |
| Abstract: | This paper proposes approximate variational inference methods for estimation of a strategic model of social interactions. Players interact in an exogenous network and sequentially choose a binary action. The utility of an action is a function of the choices of neighbors in the network. I prove that the interaction process can be represented as a potential game and it converges to a unique stationary equilibrium distribution. However, exact inference for this model is infeasible because of a computationally intractable likelihood, which cannot be evaluated even when there are few players. To overcome this problem, I propose variational approximations for the likelihood that allow approximate inference. This technique can be applied to any discrete exponential family, and therefore it is a general tool for inference in models with a large number of players. The methodology is illustrated with several simulated datasets and compared with MCMC methods. |
| Keywords: | Variational approximations, Bayesian Estimation, Social Interactions |
| JEL: | D85 C13 C73 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:net:wpaper:1316&r=ure |
| By: | Perdamen Sagala (Graduate School of International Relations International University of Japan); Takahiro Akita (Graduate School of International Relations International University of Japan); Arief Anshory Yusuf (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University) |
| Abstract: | Focusing on Indonesia, this study analyzes the relationship between inequality and the process of urbanization. Itperforms a panel data regression analysis to test the Kuznets inverted-U hypothesis for urbanization based on a provincial panel data set of 33 provinces over the period 2000-2009, constructed by using the core National Socio-economic Survey (core Susenas). Our results support the Kuznets inverted-U hypothesis, whether the Gini coefficient or the Theil indices are used as a measure of inequality. According to our estimates, expenditure inequality would reach the peak at an urbanization rate of around 46-50%. Since the 2010 urbanization rate is 50%, this indicates that expenditure inequality has already attained the peak value. Thus, further urbanization would decrease expenditure inequality, but all other things being equal. |
| Keywords: | urbanization; expenditure inequality; Kuznets hypothesis; panel data regression; Indonesia |
| JEL: | O18 R11 |
| Date: | 2013–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unp:wpaper:201318&r=ure |
| By: | Marcel van den Berg; Charles van Marrewijk |
| Abstract: | Using micro-data for Dutch firms, we argue that the productivity spillovers from importing technology intensive products from Taiwan differ from importing unskilled- labor intensive products from Switzerland. We show that both the geographic component (what country is the import from) and the intensity component (what type of good is imported) is crucial for measuring and understanding these spillovers. We show that increasing distance and decreasing levels of development of the origin economy negatively affect the diffusion of efficiency gains embodied in imported goods. Similarly, these gains are larger for technology intensive goods and smaller for unskilled-labor intensive goods. This implies that the geographic- intensity markets are unique and cannot be lumped together. In addition, a diversified import portfolio (the extensive dimension) is always positively associated with firm-level productivity. |
| Keywords: | Firm heterogeneity, imports, productivity, geography, factor intensity |
| JEL: | D22 F14 F23 |
| Date: | 2013–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:use:tkiwps:1312&r=ure |
| By: | Lehmann, Robert; Wohlrabe, Klaus |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we assess the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts at the regional level using a large data set at quarterly frequency. We forecast gross domestic product (GDP) for two German states (Free State of Saxony and Baden- Württemberg) and Eastern Germany. We overcome the problem of a ’data-poor environment’ at the sub-national level by complementing various regional indicators with more than 200 national and international indicators. We calculate single– indicator, multi–indicator, pooled and factor forecasts in a pseudo real–time setting. Our results show that we can significantly increase forecast accuracy compared to an autoregressive benchmark model, both for short and long term predictions. Furthermore, regional indicators play a crucial role for forecasting regional GDP. |
| Keywords: | regional forecasting; forecast combination; factor models; model confidence set; data–rich environment |
| JEL: | C32 C52 C53 E37 R11 |
| Date: | 2013–09–14 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lmu:muenec:17104&r=ure |
| By: | Amerasinghe, Priyanie; Bhardwaj, R. M.; Scott, C.; Jella, Kiran; Marshall, F. |
| Keywords: | Water management; Wastewater irrigation; Wastewater treatment; Urban areas; Sewage; Irrigated sites; Water quality; Water use; Water supply; Irrigated farming; Crop production; Drinking water; Health hazards; Sanitation; Households; Living standards; Income; Case studies; GIS; India |
| Date: | 2013 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iwt:rerpts:h045769&r=ure |