nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2012‒11‒24
twelve papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. A structural model for the housing and credit markets in Italy By Andrea Nobili; Francesco Zollino
  2. Is urban logistics pooling viable? A multistakeholder multicriteria analysis By Jesus Gonzalez-Feliu; Josep-Maria Salanova Grau
  3. “At least I didn’t lose money” - Nominal Loss Aversion Shapes Evaluations of Housing Transactions By Thomas A. Stephens; Jean-Robert Tyran
  4. Dynamic Externalities and Manufacturing Productivity: An empirical comparison among China's top three municipalities By ZHAO Ting; ZHAO Wei
  5. Producers' Service Improvements and Manufacturing Agglomeration When Taking Trade Costs as a Mediator Variable: Mechanism and evidence from China By ZHAO Wei; ZHENG Wenwen
  6. Parameters of Regional Cooperative Behavior in the German Biotech Industry – A Quantitative Social Network Analysis By Timo Mitze; Falk Strotebeck
  7. Kindergarten for All: Long Run Effects of a Universal Intervention By Drange , Nina; Havnes, Tarjei; Sandsør, Astrid M. J.
  8. Variable Mortgage Rate Pricing in Ireland By Goggin, Jean; Holton, Sarah; Kelly, Jane; Lydon, Reamonn; McQuinn, Kieran
  9. Inter-jurisdictional migration and the size of government By Giuranno, Michele G.; Rongili, Biswas
  10. Subsidies for resident passengers in air transport markets By Jorge Valido; M. Pilar Socorro; Aday Hernández; Ofelia Betancor
  11. Airline alliances, antitrust immunity and market foreclosure By Bilotkach, Volodymyr; Hüschelrath, Kai
  12. Estimating Equilibrium Effects of Job Search Assistance By Pieter Gautier; Paul Muller; Bas van der Klaauw,; Michael Rosholm; Michael Svarer

  1. By: Andrea Nobili (Bank of Italy); Francesco Zollino (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: We estimate a fully-fledged structural system for the housing market in Italy, taking into account the multi-fold link with bank lending to both households and construction firms. The model allows the house supply to vary in the short run and the banking sector to affect the equilibrium in the housing market, through its effect on housing supply and demand. We show that house prices react mostly to standard drivers such as disposable income, expected inflation and demographic pressures. Lending conditions also have a significant impact, especially through their effects on mortgage loans, and consequently on housing demand. Allowing short-run adjustment in house supply implies a weaker response of house prices to a change in the monetary stance or in banks’ deleveraging process. Finally, we find that since the mid-eighties house price developments in Italy have been broadly in line with the fundamentals; during the recent financial crisis, the worsening in credit supply conditions dampened house price dynamics, partly offsetting the positive stimulus provided by the easing of the monetary policy stance.
    Keywords: house prices, credit, system of simultaneous equations
    JEL: E51 E52 G21
    Date: 2012–10
  2. By: Jesus Gonzalez-Feliu (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - CNRS : UMR5593 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'Etat); Josep-Maria Salanova Grau (Hellenic Institute or Transport - Center of Research and Technologie Hellas)
    Abstract: Collaborative transportation and logistics pooling are relatively new concepts in research, but are very popular in practice. In the last years, collaborative transportation seems a good city logistics alternative to classical urban consolidation centres, but it is still in a development stage. This paper proposes a framework for urban logistics pooling ex-ante evaluation. This framework is developed with two purposes. The first is to generate comparable contrasted or progressive scenarios representing realistic situations; the second to simulate and assess them to make a "before-after" comparative analysis. In this framework, a demand generation model is combined with a route optimization algorithm to simulate the resulting routes of the proposed individual or collaborative distribution schemes assumed by each scenario. Then, several indicators can be obtained, mainly travelled distances, working times, road occupancy rates and operational monetary costs. To illustrate that framework, several scenarios for the urban area of Lyon (France) are simulated and discussed to illustrate the proposed framework possible applications.
    Keywords: urban logistics; resource sharing; freight transport pooling; collaborative multicriteria analysis
    Date: 2012–10–24
  3. By: Thomas A. Stephens (University of Vienna, Department of Economics); Jean-Robert Tyran (University of Copenhagen, Department of Economics)
    Abstract: Loss aversion is one of the most robust findings to have emerged from behavioral economics. Surprisingly little attention, however, has been devoted to nominal loss aversion, the interaction of loss aversion and money illusion. People tend to think of transactions in terms of their nominal (monetary) values. Real losses may therefore loom larger in people’s minds when they lose money than when real losses are hidden by purely nominal gains. Using a survey experiment with a large and heterogeneous sample, we show that evaluations of housing transactions are systematically biased by purely nominal gains versus losses.
    Keywords: loss aversion, money illusion, bounded rationality, cognitive reflection, cognitive ability, survey experiment
    JEL: A10 C91 D00
    Date: 2012–10–12
  4. By: ZHAO Ting; ZHAO Wei
    Abstract: By reviewing and improving previous empirical works on this topic, the present paper investigates the dynamic externalities of agglomeration in China. Taking China's top three municipalities (i.e., Beijing, Shanghai, and Tianjin) as sample regions, it assesses empirically and compares how three types of dynamic externalities—namely MAR (Marshall-Arrow-Romer), Jacobs, and Porter externalities—affect manufacturing productivity. The main findings of this paper are threefold. First, all three types of dynamic externalities measured in labor productivity can be found in the three sample regions, but large differences in the degrees and directions of the effects exist among them. Second, the degree and sign of the effects of each type of externality vary with changes in time lags. Third, the positive effects of these externalities seem to be substitutable for one another. Specifically, if MAR externalities contribute more to productivity growth in one city, Jacobs or Porter externalities do so to a lesser degree and vice versa.
    Date: 2012–11
  5. By: ZHAO Wei; ZHENG Wenwen
    Abstract: Most studies about the effects of producers' services on manufacturing agglomeration focus on the effects themselves while neglecting the mechanism that such effects spread. By stressing the key role of trade costs in the process of manufacturing agglomeration, this paper identifies a chain of effects from producers' service improvements to manufacturing agglomeration via changing trade costs and builds a simple model to enable empirical analysis. Both in the mechanism used to assess this chain of effects and in the empirical model, trade costs are dealt with as a mediator variable. Empirical tests using firm-level data from China support the hypothesis that producers' services affect manufacturing agglomeration via changing trade costs. Further tests at the two-digit sector level show that these types of mediator effects vary in accordance with differences in sector factor intensiveness. Specifically, the mediator effects are more significant in the technology-intensive manufacturing industries than they are in the labor- or capital-intensive manufacturing industries. The policy implication of this finding is that encouraging the development and regional concentration of producers' services would not only promote manufacturing agglomeration but also stimulate technology progress in related sectors.
    Date: 2012–11
  6. By: Timo Mitze; Falk Strotebeck
    Abstract: We analyse the determinants of network formation in Germany’s biotechnology industry using social network analysis combined with a regression approach for count data. Outcome variable of interest is the degree centrality of German regions, which is specified as a function of the region’s innovative and economic performance as well as biotech-related policy variables. The inclusion of the latter allows us to shed new light on the question to what extent R&D-based cluster policies are able to impact on the formation of the German biotech network. Our results show that policy indicators such as the volume of public funding for collaborative R&D activity are positively correlated with the region’s overall and interregional degree centrality. However, besides this direct funding effect, we do not observe any further (non-pecuniary) advantages such as prestige or image effects. Regarding the role played by locational factors as elements of the sector-specific and broader regional innovation system, we find that the number of biotech patent applications, the share of regional hightech start-ups and the population density among other factors are positively correlated with the region’s position in the German biotechnology network.
    Keywords: Biotechnology; network formation; degree centrality; R&D policy
    JEL: C21 R38
    Date: 2012–10
  7. By: Drange , Nina (Statistics Norway); Havnes, Tarjei (University of Oslo); Sandsør, Astrid M. J. (University of Oslo)
    Abstract: Theory and evidence point towards particularly positive effects of high-quality child care for disadvantaged children. At the same time, disadvantaged families often sort out of existing programs. To counter differences in learning outcomes between children from different socioeconomic backgrounds, European governments are pushing for universal child care. However, evidence on the effects of universal programs is scarce. We provide evidence on the long-run effect on schooling of mandating kindergarten at age 5–6. Our identifying variation comes from a reform that lowered school starting-age from 7 to 6 in Norway in 1997. Our precise DD estimates reveal hardly any effect, both overall, across subsamples, and over the grading distribution. A battery of specification checks support our empirical strategy.
    Keywords: kindergarten, early childhood intervention, distributional effects, difference-in-differences, child care, child development
    JEL: J13 H40 I28
    Date: 2012–11
  8. By: Goggin, Jean (Central Bank of Ireland); Holton, Sarah (Central Bank of Ireland); Kelly, Jane (Central Bank of Ireland); Lydon, Reamonn (Central Bank of Ireland); McQuinn, Kieran (Central Bank of Ireland)
    Abstract: This Letter examines movements in the interest rates charged on variable rate mortgages. The results indicate that variable rates for all lenders closely followed changes in the ECB's policy rate, short-term wholesale rates and tracker rate mortgages until the end of 2008. Thereafter, the relationship breaks down, in part due to banks' increased market funding costs. It appears that some lenders with higher mortgage arrears rates and a greater proportion of tracker rate loans on their books exhibit higher variable rates. After controlling for these additional factors, most of the divergence between banks variable rates is explained, but there are some exceptions. There is also some evidence of asymmetric adjustment in rate setting behaviour: that is, rates tend to adjust slowly when they are above the long-run predicted level but more quickly when they are below this level. This asymmetric adjustment behaviour appears to increase in the post-2008 period.
    Date: 2012–01
  9. By: Giuranno, Michele G.; Rongili, Biswas
    Abstract: This paper develops a model of centralized public spending where decision-makers are the regional median voters instead of the national median voter of the received literature. Regional representatives decide the level of public spending by bargaining in the central legislature. We study how exogenous changes in the composition of the regional electorate either deteriorate or mitigate inter-jurisdictional redistributive conflicts and how these, in turn, influence the size of the government. We find the conditions under which migration-induced inter-regional income convergence (divergence) leads either to a bigger or a smaller government. Finally, the relationship between migration and efficiency is explored within the present framework.
    Keywords: Demographic Changes; Government Spending; Inequality; Redistribution; Bargaining; Political Economy Theory
    JEL: H50 R1 D30 H41 D78 H00
    Date: 2012–10–29
  10. By: Jorge Valido; M. Pilar Socorro; Aday Hernández; Ofelia Betancor
    Abstract: In this work, we analyse from a theoretical perspective the efficiency of an ad valorem and a lump sum subsidy for resident passengers. In particular, we consider passengers with high and low willingness to pay that may be residents in a given area (and therefore entitled to a subsidy). All passengers are served by a monopoly air carrier that wants to get as much of their willingness to pay as possible. We show that if the proportion of resident passengers is high enough, non-resident passengers may be expelled from the market. Taken into account this undesirable situation we compare ad valorem and lump sum subsidies. We conclude that if the proportion of passengers with high willingness to pay is low (high) enough applying a lump sum (ad valorem) subsidy for resident passengers is better in social terms. We apply these results to a specific case study in the Canary Islands where ad valorem subsidies for resident passengers have been extensively used. We conclude that in most routes the lump sum subsidy is undoubtedly better in social terms.
    Date: 2012–11
  11. By: Bilotkach, Volodymyr; Hüschelrath, Kai
    Abstract: We examine the issue of market foreclosure by airline partnerships with antitrust immunity. Overlapping data on frequency of service and passenger volumes on non-stop transatlantic routes with information on the dynamics of airline partnerships, we find evidence consistent with the airlines operating under antitrust immunity refusing to accept connecting passengers from the outside carriers at respective hub airports. Following the antitrust immunity, airlines outside the partnership reduce their traffic to the partner airlines' hub airports by 4.1-11.5 percent. We suggest regulators should take possible market foreclosure effects into account when assessing the competitive effects of antitrust immunity for airline alliances. --
    Keywords: air transportation,alliances,antitrust immunity,foreclosure
    JEL: L41 L93 K21
    Date: 2012
  12. By: Pieter Gautier (Free, University, Amsterdam); Paul Muller (Free, University, Amsterdam); Bas van der Klaauw, (Free, University, Amsterdam); Michael Rosholm (Department of Economics and Business, Aarhus University, Denmark); Michael Svarer (Department of Economics and Business, Aarhus University, Denmark)
    Abstract: Randomized experiments provide policy relevant treatment effects if there are no spillovers between participants and nonparticipants. We show that this assumption is violated for a Danish activation program for unemployed workers. Using a difference-in-difference model e show that the nonparticipants in the experiment regions find jobs slower after the introduction of the activation program (relative to workers in other regions). We then estimate an equilibrium search model. This model shows that a large scale role out of the activation program decreases welfare, while a standard partial microeconometric cost-benefit analysis would conclude the opposite.
    Keywords: randomized experiment, policy-relevant treatment
    JEL: C21 E24 J64
    Date: 2012–11–08

This nep-ure issue is ©2012 by Steve Ross. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.