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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | Steve Gibbons |
| Abstract: | Steve Gibbons describes the development of CEP research showing how much house prices are boosted by the quality of local schools |
| Keywords: | education, house prices |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:374&r=ure |
| By: | Tripathi, Sabyasachi |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of urban agglomeration on urban economic growth, using static and dynamic panel data approach, based on data of 52 large cities in India for the period 2000 to 2009. The results shows that agglomeration has a strong positive effect on urban economic growth and support the “Williamson hypothesis” that agglomeration increases economic growth only up to certain level of economic development. The critical level per-capita city income is estimated about Rs. 37049 per-capita at 1999-2000 constant prices. In addition, the results indicate that human capital accumulation promotes urban economic growth. |
| Keywords: | Agglomeration; Economic Growth; Panel Data Approach; Urban India |
| JEL: | P25 |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:41574&r=ure |
| By: | Bangsund, Dean A.; Hodur, Nancy M.; Rathge, Richard W.; Olson, Karen |
| Abstract: | Communities in western North Dakota are struggling to manage the unprecedented growth in employment associated with the current oil boom. The city of Dickinson is undergoing a comprehensive plan to develop policies, strategies, and solutions for providing infrastructure, transportation, housing, and public services as a result of the new conditions brought on by oil field development. This study was designed to provide input into the city’s comprehensive planning effort. Employment projections for the Dickinson trade area included future changes to employment in existing industries, future direct employment in the petroleum sector, and potential secondary employment associated with changes in direct employment in the petroleum industry. To frame the context and scope of future oil field development, perceptions and opinions on current and expected development in the Williston Basin were solicited from industry leaders and government representatives with knowledge of the industry. Those opinions and perceptions provided the basis for creating two development scenarios based on 32,000 wells in the Bakken/Three Forks formations in North Dakota by 2036. Near-term growth in employment in the Dickinson trade area was substantial in the slow and rapid development scenarios. However, long-term employment dynamics differed. Those differences were reflected in the level of temporary employment and changes in permanent employment over the 25-year period. The slow development scenario produced a set of employment dynamics much more conducive to an orderly and sustained expansion. By contrast, the rapid development scenario indicated continued rapid growth in employment over the next decade. Further into the rapid scenario timeline, assumptions on oil field development produced a strong contraction in employment upon completion of well drilling which results in an employment change reminiscent of boom-bust resource development. Neither scenario was modeled as a prediction, but rather a potential possibility. Two separate approaches were used to estimate future population for the city of Dickinson. One approach used current and planned build-out rates for future housing developments within the current city limits, occupancy rates in motels and other non-traditional housing arrangements, crew camps, lodging at work sites, and existing traditional Census population figures to produce an estimate of service population. Based on that approach, the city will reach a physical maximum service population of approximately 35,000 upon completion of all current and proposed projects (i.e., proposed projects as of early 2012). When all of the planned developments are build-out additional growth beyond that level will be dependent on how the city reacts to the demand for additional housing. Additional growth will require additional annexations. A second approach to estimating future population used projections of regional employment in all industries to generate estimates of regional housing demand. Future housing demand in the region was estimated separately for permanent and total (permanent and temporary jobs) workforce. Permanent workforce produced housing needs associated with longvi term employment and would produce population estimates consistent with the Census. Total workforce (permanent and temporary workers) was used to produce estimates of future housing demand that were used to estimate service populations. Future housing demand was allocated among the region’s counties based on historic distributions of housing within the region. The allocation process was largely driven by the need to address mobility of the petroleum sector workforce. Petroleum sector workers may not necessarily reside where they work or be employed where they reside. Therefore, a direct correlation between place of employment and place of residence could not be used to allocate regional housing demand. Future housing demand in each county was divided into homes, twin homes, and apartments (i.e., R1, R2, and R3 housing) and assigned occupancy rates by housing type by county based on historical data. Information on the expected mix of housing in future housing developments was used to adjust the future distribution of single family houses, twin homes, and apartments within the trade area counties. The process produced county-level estimates of permanent population and service population over the 25-year period. Assuming all permanent housing needs are met within the region, an average of the slow and rapid development scenarios revealed that the Dickinson trade area permanent population could approach 57,000 in 25 years. If temporary employment is included, trade area service population could peak near 64,000 people around 2020. Two levels of future housing demand within the city in Dickinson were considered. First, housing demand was modeled at a rate consistent with Dickinson’s historic share of regional housing, approximately 50 percent. A second scenario assumed the city would supply 70 percent of the regional housing supply. The second scenario was based on the premise that other cities and communities in the region would not be able to meet future housing demand proportionate to their historical levels. Housing demand for a permanent workforce was projected to be 72 percent to 140 percent above the 2010 Census estimate of housing units in the city of Dickinson, depending upon the share of regional housing units supplied by Dickinson. When housing demand included housing for the temporary workforce, housing demand peaked at 95 to 173 percent of the 2010 Census estimate of housing units in Dickinson 10 to 12 years into the planning period. Future permanent population in the city of Dickinson could approach 30,000 in 15 years assuming 50 percent of regional housing demand. If that ratio were to change based on the assumption that smaller communities in the trade area were either unwilling or unable to maintain their historic housing supply and Dickinson now supplied 70 percent of the regional housing demand, future permanent population was estimated to approach 40,000 in 15 years. When temporary employment is included in the population estimates, the city of Dickinson could see a service population between 34,000 to 47,000 in 10 years depending upon the share of regional temporary housing demand supplied by the city. Aside from detailed estimates of future employment, housing, and population, a number of insights were gained regarding current and expected future activity in the Dickinson trade area. ● Employment • Employment in the petroleum sector will remain high, and there are strong indications that increases in direct employment could occur in the near term. • Near-term employment drivers are associated with drilling and fracing activity in the Bakken/Three Forks formations. • Longer-term employment drivers are associated with oil field service and will be a direct function of the number of wells operating in the state. •Wildcards in the long-term employment may include development of other shale formations (e.g., Tyler formation). •Long-term predictions of employment are difficult. ◦ The industry has substantial incentives to reduce current labor requirements. ◦ Future use of new technologies and techniques are likely to be a factor in employment requirements. ◦ Macro-economic factors affecting oil field development rates and the future desirability of the industry to pursue opportunities in shale oil formations in ND are difficult to predict. ◦ Therefore, a host of factors make concise long-range estimates impossible. The best antidote for long-term uncertainty is to shorten the time between assessments and make the process of forecasting more iterative. ● Housing • There is substantial demand for housing in the Dickinson trade area. • Current build-out rates for water, sewer, and housing are not likely to result in overbuilding of infrastructure within the city of Dickinson. • Despite enormous demand for housing, it is not unlimited. The city must carefully plan how it will respond to the demand as overbuilding can result in equally serious ramifications. ◦ Too much housing is likely to result in high vacancy rates, and a depressed housing market. ◦ Too little housing drives up values and rents and creates additional problems for elderly and other fixed income residents. • Communities’ response to the housing issue must include continual monitoring and periodic re-assessment to avoid building to peak demand. ● Workforce Characteristics • Workers in the petroleum sector are far more mobile than previously thought. • A good understanding of workforce characteristics is lacking. viii • Planning efforts at both the local and state level would benefit from a better understanding of demographic profiles, anticipated work schedules, and likelihood/willingness of existing workforce to become North Dakota residents. • Antidotal evidence (airline boardings, real estate purchases) suggests that workers are seeking housing outside of the oil fields, and using work schedules that allow them to work in ND but maintain their home residence elsewhere in the state or outside of ND. • A mobile workforce responsive to housing availability has substantial implications for level of secondary employment–implications for support businesses, services, and commercial activity. ● Population • Local communities must include estimates of service population when planning for delivery of public services. • The duration and intensity of service population will largely be reflective of the city’s policy regarding housing supply and the future rates of development within the oil field. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development, Consumer/Household Economics, Public Economics, |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nddaae:133390&r=ure |
| By: | Gerald A. Carlino; Robert M. Hunt; Jake K. Carr; Tony E. Smith |
| Abstract: | We study the location of more than 1,000 research and development (R&D) labs located in the Northeast corridor of the U.S. Using a variety of spatial econometric techniques, we find that these labs are substantially more concentrated in space than the underlying distribution of manufacturing activity. Ripley’s K-function tests over a variety of spatial scales reveal that the strongest evidence of concentration occurs at two discrete distances: one at about one-quarter of a mile and another at about 40 miles. We also find that R&D labs in some industries (e.g., chemicals, including drugs) are substantially more spatially concentrated than are R&D labs as a whole. ; Tests using local K-functions reveal several concentrations of R&D labs that appear to represent research clusters. We verify this conjecture using significance maximizing techniques (e.g., SATSCAN) that also address econometric issues related to “multiple testing” and spatial autocorrelation. ; We develop a new procedure for identifying clusters – the multiscale core-cluster approach, to identify labs that appear to be clustered at a variety of spatial scales. Locations in these clusters are often related to basic infrastructure such as access to major roads. There is significant variation in the industrial composition of labs across these clusters. ; The clusters we identify appear related to knowledge spillovers: Citations to patents previously obtained by inventors residing in clustered areas are significantly more localized than one would predict from a (control) sample of otherwise similar patents. ; This paper supersedes Working Papers 10-33 and 11-42. |
| Keywords: | Research and development |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:12-22&r=ure |
| By: | Lydon, Reamonn (Central Bank of Ireland); O'Hanlon, Niall (Central Statistics Office) |
| Abstract: | At the peak of the Irish property boom in the mid-2000s, housing equity withdrawal by existing homeowners accounted for around one-third of residential mortgage loans issued. This collateral-based lending was typically issued at a signicant discount to other forms of personal lending, often at tracker rates. By the end of 2011 the value of equity release borrowing was down 97 percent from the peak (2006). This Economic Letter summarises the trends in housing equity withdrawal over the last decade, both in terms of the extent of lending that occurred and the reasons for borrowers taking out such loans. We nd that whilst the majority of housing equity withdrawal was used for housing investment, there is a also a strong correlation between equity release patterns and spending on certain large-scale consumer durables such as motors and furniture. |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:ecolet:06/el/12&r=ure |
| By: | Ira Nichols-Barrer; Brian P. Gill; Philip Gleason; Christina Clark Tuttle |
| Abstract: | Using longitudinal, student-level data, this American Educational Research Association conference paper examines the entry and exit of students in KIPP middle schools, comparing KIPP’s rates of attrition and replacement with rates in nearby district-run schools. |
| Keywords: | KIPP, Middle Schools, Studnet Selection, AERA |
| JEL: | I |
| Date: | 2012–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mpr:mprres:7547&r=ure |
| By: | Lee, Neil; Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés |
| Abstract: | Innovation is a crucial driver of urban and regional economic success. Innovative cities and regions tend to grow faster and have higher average wages. Little research, however, has considered the potential negative consequences: as a small body of innovators gain relative to others, innovation may lead to inequality. The evidence on this point is fragmented, based on cross-sectional evidence on skill premia rather than overall levels of inequality. This paper provides the first comparative evidence on the link between innovation and inequality in a continental perspective. Using micro data from population surveys for European regions and US Cities, the paper finds, after controlling for other potential factors, good evidence of a link between innovation and inequality in European regions, but only limited evidence of such a relationship in the United States. Less flexible labour markets and lower levels of migration seem to be at the root of the stronger association between innovation and income inequality in Europe than in the US. |
| Keywords: | Cities; European Union; Inequality; Innovation; Regions; United States |
| JEL: | D31 O31 R13 |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9139&r=ure |
| By: | Kennedy, Gerard (Central Bank of Ireland); McQuinn, Kieran (Central Bank of Ireland) |
| Abstract: | In this note, the continued fall in Irish house prices is examined. The increased rate of decline in 2011 resulted in Irish prices being almost 50 per cent down from peak levels of mid 2007. Accordingly, in over forty years of house price data, the fall is now one of the most significant across the OECD. We outline the current state of activity in the housing market and, using a suite of models, assess whether the fall in house prices is in line with that suggested by current fundamental factors within the Irish economy. Given that the analysis suggests prices may have overcorrected since 2010 we discuss possible reasons for this continued decline. |
| Date: | 2012–04 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cbi:ecolet:05/el/12&r=ure |
| By: | Chen, Yuanyuan (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics); Feng, Shuaizhang (Shanghai University of Finance and Economics) |
| Abstract: | A significant proportion of migrant children in China are not able to attend public schools for lack of local household registration (HuKou), and turn to privately-operated migrant schools. This paper examines the consequences of such a partially involuntary school choice, using survey data and standardized test scores from field work conducted in Shanghai. We find that migrant students who are unable to enroll in public schools perform significantly worse than their more fortunate counterparts in both Chinese and Mathematics. We also use parental satisfaction and parental assessment of school quality as alternative measures of the educational outcome and find similar results. Our study suggests that access to public schools is the key factor determining the quality of education that migrant children receive. |
| Keywords: | education of migrant children, migrant school, standardized test score |
| JEL: | I28 J15 O15 |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6853&r=ure |
| By: | Lucija Muehlenbachs; Elisheba Spiller; Christopher Timmins |
| Abstract: | While shale gas development can result in rapid local economic development, negative externalities associated with the process may adversely affect the prices of nearby homes. We utilize a triple-difference estimator and exploit the public water service area boundary in Washington County, Pennsylvania to identify the housing capitalization of groundwater risk, differentiating it from other externalities, lease payments to homeowners, and local economic development. We find that proximity to wells increases housing values, though risks to groundwater fully offset those gains. By itself, groundwater risk reduces property values by up to 24 percent. |
| Keywords: | shale gas, property values, hedonic models, groundwater, triple difference estimator |
| JEL: | Q4 Q53 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:duk:dukeec:12-14&r=ure |
| By: | Iftikhar Hussain |
| Abstract: | Ofsted inspections of schools have been a central feature of state education in England for nearly 20 years. Research by Iftikhar Hussain explores the validity of the school ratings that Ofsted produces, the impact of a fail rating on subsequent pupil performance and the extent to which teachers can 'game' the system. |
| Keywords: | education, UK, |
| Date: | 2012–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:358&r=ure |
| By: | Rieck, Karsten Marshall Elseth (Department of Economics, University of Bergen); Vaage, Kjell (Department of Economics, University of Bergen) |
| Abstract: | We investigate whether a worker’s sickness absence is affected by her colleagues’ absences from the workplace. The analysis is based on unique matched employer-employee data for Norwegian schoolteachers for the period 2001 to 2006 with information on different types of absences and multiple teacher and school characteristics. Using different approaches where methodological problems such as the reflection problem and intra-group correlation are mitigated, we look for evidence of social interaction effects. Our results show that the significance of the social interaction effects critically depends on our ability to control for unobserved school characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Social interaction; peer effects; sickness absence |
| JEL: | C23 C31 H55 I38 J22 |
| Date: | 2012–08–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bergec:2012_011&r=ure |
| By: | Xin Wang; Yi Wen |
| Abstract: | China’s over 25% aggregate household saving rate is one of the highest in the world. One popular view attributes the high saving rate to fast-rising housing prices in China. However, cross-sectional data do not show a significant relationship between housing prices and household saving rates. This article uses a simple consumption-saving model to explain why rising housing prices per se cannot explain China’s high household saving rate. Although borrowing constraints and demographic changes can translate housing prices to the aggregate saving rate, quantitative simulations of our model using Chinese time-series data on household income, housing prices, and demographics indicate that rising mortgage costs can increase the aggregate saving rate by at most 2 to 4 percentage points in the best down-payment structure. |
| Keywords: | China - Economic conditions ; Housing - China ; Saving and investment - China |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedlwp:2012-038&r=ure |
| By: | Sylvie Dvoráková (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic); Jakub Seidler (Institute of Economic Studies, Faculty of Social Sciences, Charles University, Prague, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how the change of wealth of households represented by housing prices and stock market prices influences households’ consumption. We provide empirical analysis based on the Czech aggregate data from 1998–2009. We analyse the effect of change in households’ wealth on the consumption of both durable and non-durable goods employing the VAR and VEC models on quarterly data. The robustness of results is verified by Dynamic OLS and Fully Modified OLS framework. We find a positive effect of both housing wealth and stock market wealth on both types of consumption. In case of non-durable goods consumption, we estimate the cointegrating vector and conclude that the elasticity of non-durable goods consumption with respect to housing wealth is over three times greater than with respect to stock market wealth. |
| Keywords: | households, housing prices, consumption, housing wealth, stock market wealth, VAR model, VECM |
| JEL: | C22 E39 G12 |
| Date: | 2012–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fau:wpaper:wp2012_22&r=ure |
| By: | Francesco P. Deflorio (DIATI - Dipartimento dell'ingegneria dell'ambiente, del territorio e delle infrastrutture - Politecnico di Torino); Jesus Gonzalez-Feliu (LET - Laboratoire d'économie des transports - CNRS : UMR5593 - Université Lumière - Lyon II - Ecole Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'Etat); Guido Perboli (DAUIN - Department of Computer Engineering - Politecnico di Torino); Roberto Tadei (DAUIN - Department of Computer Engineering - Politecnico di Torino) |
| Abstract: | In freight distribution services a required quality level may have a relevant effect on transportation costs. For this reason an evaluation tool is useful to compare different service settings and support the decision, on the base of quantitative indicators. This paper proposes a method for cost evaluation in this context and presents an application to a case study concerning a freight distribution service, which operates on a wide road network having a city centre, a peripheral urban area and a peri-urban rural zone. A simulation method is proposed to obtain real-life scenarios in order to test the method and its indicators. The performance of each indicator has been evaluated in an experimental context to produce realistic test cases, using a trip planning tool and a demand generator. First, the behaviour of the indicators is analysed with regard to the time windows width planned for the service. Then, their ability in estimating the total transportation cost to satisfy all the requests, under different time period profiles, is shown. The results confirm the ability of the set of indicators to predict with a good approximation the transportation costs and therefore to be used in supporting the service quality planning decisions. |
| Keywords: | urban freight distribution; compatibility indicators; evaluation method; simulation; real-life applications |
| Date: | 2012–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:halshs-00736428&r=ure |
| By: | Dahl, Gordon B. (Department of Economics, UC San Diego); Løken, Katrine V. (Department of Economics, University of Bergen); Mogstad, Magne (Department of Economics, University College London) |
| Abstract: | The influence of peers could play an important role in the take up of social programs. However, estimating peer effects has proven challenging given the problems of reflection, correlated unobservables, and endogenous group membership. We overcome these identification issues in the context of paid paternity leave in Norway using a regression discontinuity design. In an attempt to promote gender equality, a reform made fathers of children born after April 1, 1993 in Norway eligible for one month of governmental paid paternity leave. Fathers of children born before this cutoff were not eligible. There is a sharp increase in fathers taking paternity leave immediately after the reform, with take up rising from 3% to 35%. While this quasi-random variation changed the cost of paternity leave for some fathers and not others, it did not directly affect the cost for the father’s coworkers or brothers. Therefore, any effect on the coworker or brother can be attributed to the influence of the peer father in their network. Our key findings on peer effects are four-fold. First, we find strong evidence for substantial peer effects of program participation in both workplace and family networks. Coworkers and brothers are 11 and 15 percentage points, respectively, more likely to take paternity leave if their peer father was induced to take up leave by the reform. Second, the most likely mechanism is information transmission about costs and benefits, including increased knowledge of how an employer will react. Third, there is essential heterogeneity in the size of the peer effect depending on the strength of ties between peers, highlighting the importance of duration, intensity, and frequency of social interactions. Fourth, the estimated peer effect gets amplified over time, with each subsequent birth exhibiting a snowball effect as the original peer father’s influence cascades through a firm. Our findings demonstrate that peer effects can lead to long-run equilibrium participation rates which are substantially higher than would otherwise be expected. |
| Keywords: | Program Participation; Social Interactions |
| JEL: | H53 I38 J13 |
| Date: | 2012–09–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bergec:2012_012&r=ure |
| By: | Sato, Hiroshi; Ding, Sai |
| Abstract: | Using a 2006 household survey from the Ningxia Hui autonomous region in China, this paper examines two aspects of the correlation between ethnicity and income: namely, differences in the returns to human capital and the effects of ethnicity- and religion-related social capital. The findings indicate ethnic disparity in the returns to human capital across rural and urban areas. In rural areas, the returns to human capital for the Hui workforce differ according to the place of economic activity (i.e. local employment or migration), whereas no ethnic disparity is found for the urban workforce. We also find that ethnicity- and religion-related social capital plays a significant role among the Hui in rural areas where the level of interethnic social interactions is lower. We use this to suggest that Muslim-oriented attitudes toward trust in social networks of rural Hui households positively and interactively affect income through ethnically open trust attitudes. |
| Keywords: | ethnic minorities, Hui, household and personal income, China |
| JEL: | J15 D31 |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:ccesdp:46&r=ure |
| By: | Wan-Hsin Liu |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether proximity to universities matters for corporate patenting in Chinese provinces. The investigation is based on estimating regional knowledge production functions using a Chinese provincial dataset for the years from 2000 to 2008. Geographic proximity of companies to universities is taken as a key element to measure firms’ accessibility to university research. In addition, quality-adjusted accessibility measures are considered in extended models to take into account quality difference in university research. The results suggest the existence of spatial academic effects on corporate patenting activities in China as found in the previous literature for Western economies. In China, however, these effects are especially strong for realising technologically less demanding non-invention corporate patents than for invention corporate patents. Moreover, companies’ geographic proximity to universities dominates over university research quality difference for determining the relevance of universities as knowledge sources for companies. Extended models are estimated for robustness checks which ascertain the main results |
| Keywords: | spatial proximity, logsum accessibility, university, corporate patenting, China |
| JEL: | O31 O53 R11 |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kie:kieliw:1796&r=ure |
| By: | Bharadwaj, Prashant (Economics, UC San Diego); Løken, Katrine V. (Department of Economics, University of Bergen); Neilson, Christopher (Department of Economics, Yale University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of improved neonatal health care on mortality and long run academic achievement in school. We use the idea that medical treatments often follow rules of thumb for assigning care to patients, such as the classification of Very Low Birth Weight (VLBW), which assigns infants special care at a specific birth weight cutoff. Using detailed administrative data on schooling and birth records from Chile and Norway, we establish that children who receive extra medical care at birth have lower mortality rates and higher test scores and grades in school. These gains are in the order of 0.15-0.22 standard deviations. |
| Keywords: | Very low birth weight; academic achievement; regression discontinuity |
| JEL: | I11 I38 J13 |
| Date: | 2012–07–24 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:bergec:2012_013&r=ure |
| By: | Alexandra Schwarz (German Institute for International Educational Research (DIPF), Frankfurt am Main, Germany); Horst Weishaupt (German Institute for International Educational Research (DIPF), Frankfurt am Main, Germany) |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we examine current changes in the ethnic and social composition of the preschool and school aged population as well as the consequences these changes may have for educational participation and thus for overall educational attainment in the near future. Based on the micro-census 2008 survey, we identify groups of migrants by region of parents’ origin where children - despite low levels of parents’ education and comparatively few socioeconomic resources - have greater chances of upward educational mobility than non-migrant children. By contrast, children from less educated, non-migrant families show a much lower tendency to be upwardly mobile, and educational choices are more closely tied to the economic and social background. Thus, our analysis provides evidence that educational background and socio-economic resources in the students’ families are of greater importance for the overall development of educational attainment in Germany than characteristics of migration and ethnicity. |
| Keywords: | demografische Entwicklung, Migration, Bildung, Bildungsmobilität, soziale Mobilität |
| JEL: | H75 I24 J10 J15 |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bwu:schdps:sdp12009&r=ure |
| By: | Bauernschuster, Stefan (Ifo Institute for Economic Research); Falck, Oliver (Ifo Institute for Economic Research); Heblich, Stephan (University of Stirling); Suedekum, Jens (University of Duisburg-Essen) |
| Abstract: | Why are better educated and more risk-friendly persons more mobile across regions? To answer this question, we use micro data on internal migrants from the German Socio- Economic Panel (SOEP) 2000-2006 and merge this information with a unique proxy for region-pair-specific cultural distances across German regions constructed from historical local dialect patterns. Our findings indicate that risk-loving and skilled people are more mobile over longer distances because they are more willing to cross cultural boundaries and move to regions that are culturally different from their homes. Other types of distance-related migration costs cannot explain the lower distance sensitivity of educated and risk-loving individuals. |
| Keywords: | migration, culture, distance, human capital, risk attitudes |
| JEL: | J61 R23 D81 |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6860&r=ure |
| By: | Winters, John V. (University of Cincinnati) |
| Abstract: | It has been well documented that employment outcomes often differ considerably across areas. This paper examines the extent to which the local human capital level, measured as the share of prime age adults with a college degree, has positive external effects on labor force participation and employment for U.S. metropolitan area residents. The empirical results suggest that the local human capital level has positive externalities on the probability of labor force participation and employment for both women and men. We also find that less educated workers generally receive the largest external benefits. |
| Keywords: | employment, labor force participation, human capital externalities, agglomeration |
| JEL: | J21 J24 R23 |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6869&r=ure |
| By: | Hanning, Cooper; Jerrett, Michael; Su, Jason G.; Wolch, Jennifer |
| Abstract: | Rationale: Areas near parks may present active travelers with higher risks than in other areas due to the confluence of more pedestrians and bicyclists, younger travelers, and the potential for increased numbers of motor vehicles. These risks may be amplified in low-income and minority neighborhoods due to generally higher rates of walking or lack of safety infrastructure. Objectives: We pursued three research objectives: (1) to determine if pedestrian and bicycle crashes occur at higher rates in park-adjacent neighborhoods compared to the rest of the study area; (2) to identify if demographic characteristics predict active crash risk after controlling for population and the rate of active trips; and (3) to assess if there is an amplified effect of park proximity for active crash risk in low-income and minority neighborhoods after controlling for population and the rate of active trips. Methods: With negative binomial regression modeling techniques, we used ten years of geolocated pedestrian and bicyclist crash data and a quarter mile (~400 meter) buffer around public parks to assess the risk of active travel near parks. We controlled for differential exposures to active travel risks using travel survey data. Measurements: Quarter-mile network buffers were designated around parks from the Green Visions Plan for 21st Century California in 2249 census tracts. Crashes came from the 90,846 pedestrian and bicyclist injuries and fatalities from the Statewide Integrated Traffic Reporting System, and active travel was predicted using travel data from 9135 households that participated in the Southern California Association of Governments 2001 Travel and Congestion Survey. These data were combined with demographic and income data from the U.S. Census and traffic density predictions. Results: The ratio of active crashes per 100,000 population within the quarter-mile park buffer to those outside is 1.52. The increased risk of crash for active travelers near parks remained after adjusting for varying rates of active travel in different census tracts. Minority and low-income residents of the study area are more likely to walk or bicycle than White and higher-income residents. This higher risk near parks is amplified in neighborhoods with high proportions of minority and low-income people. Higher traffic levels are highly predictive of active crashes. Conclusions: Active travelers accessing parks may lack a safe route to places for play. The socioeconomic modification of active crashes near parks found in this study is supported by existing research showing disparities in park access and higher active travel risks in low-income and minority neighborhoods. |
| Keywords: | Area, Ethnic, Cultural, Gender, and Group Studies, Geographic Information Science and Cartography, Urban Studies/Affairs, Parks, Recreation, Leisure, and Fitness Studies, Public Health |
| Date: | 2012–09–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:uctcwp:qt2st3m2cv&r=ure |
| By: | Mauro Lombardi (Università degli Studi di Firenze,); Filippo Randelli |
| Abstract: | Clusters that emerged in the past have changed during the latest decades, so that today the research challenge in economic geography is on their evolution over time. The aim of this paper is to update on the evolutionary path of SMEs Italian clusters, which faced with the economic crisis are undergoing a process of decline in the number of firms. Furthermore changes in the techno-economic landscape and in the competitive environment have generated new challenges. In this context, some leading firm, able to connect local resources (and firms) to global networks, have emerged over time. We argue that within SMEs clusters, the leading firms act as a gatekeeper, linking local networks to global markets. The focus will be on local networks interacting with leading firms and particular attention will be devoted to the pattern of co-evolution and to the geographical dimension of this co-evolutionary process. To empirically verify if others firms in the cluster may co-evolve with the leading firm over time, a deep analysis of the Gucci network in the leather products cluster in Florence will be carried out. |
| Keywords: | cluster evolution, Italian SMEs clusters, network of firms, coevolution |
| JEL: | L22 L67 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2012_17.rdf&r=ure |
| By: | Bharadwaj, Prashant (University of California, San Diego); Loken, Katrine Vellesen (University of Bergen); Neilson, Christopher (Yale University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the effect of improved neonatal health care on mortality and long run academic achievement in school. We use the idea that medical treatments often follow rules of thumb for assigning care to patients, such as the classification of Very Low Birth Weight (VLBW), which assigns infants special care at a specific birth weight cutoff. Using detailed administrative data on schooling and birth records from Chile and Norway, we establish that children who receive extra medical care at birth have lower mortality rates and higher test scores and grades in school. These gains are in the order of 0.15-0.22 standard deviations. |
| Keywords: | child development, neonatal care, regression discontinuity |
| JEL: | I38 J13 J24 |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6864&r=ure |
| By: | Johansson , Börje (CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies, Royal Institute of Technology); Lööf , Hans (CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies, Royal Institute of Technology); Nabavi, Pardis (CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies, Royal Institute of Technology) |
| Abstract: | This paper empirically examines how systematic differences in firm productivity can be explained by a firm’s cumulated internal knowledge and access to external knowledge in its environment. To capture this conjunction of internal and external knowledge we use information about 5,000 Swedish firms in 290 municipalities and 72 functional regions and we use detailed information about individual firms’ accessibility to knowledge-intensive producer services. In addition, we observe the long-run frequency of R&D and innovation engagement for all these firms through 74.000 patent applications and three Community Innovation Surveys. Our panel data estimates for the period 1997-2008, suggest that only firms which commit themselves to accumulation of internal knowledge benefit from being located in places with a large mass of external knowledge. We also find strong evidence that innovators are more productive than other firms across all locations. |
| Keywords: | Innovation; Spillovers; Accessibility; Productivity; Patent; Community Innovation Survey |
| JEL: | C23 O31 O32 |
| Date: | 2012–09–26 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cesisp:0283&r=ure |
| By: | Martin Wagner; Achim Zeileis |
| Abstract: | This paper uses model-based recursive partitioning to study economic growth in the 255 European Union NUTS2 regions over the period 1995-2005. The starting point of the analysis is a human-capital augmented Solow-type growth equation similar in spirit to Mankiw, Romer, and Weil (1992). Initial GDP and the share of highly educated in the working age population are found to be important for explaining economic growth, whereas the investment share in physical capital is only significant for coastal regions in the PIIGS countries. Recursive partitioning leads to a regression tree with four terminal nodes with partitioning according to (i) capital regions, (ii) non-capital regions in or outside the so-called PIIGS countries and (iii) inside the respective PIIGS regions furthermore between coastal and non-coastal regions. |
| Keywords: | convergence, growth regressions, recursive partitioning, regional data |
| JEL: | C31 C51 O18 O47 |
| Date: | 2012–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inn:wpaper:2012-20&r=ure |
| By: | Hiranya K. Nath (Department of Economics and International Business, Sam Houston State University); Natalie Hegwood (Department of Economics and International Business, Sam Houston State University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines price index convergence among U. S. cities by applying panel unit root test procedures that allow for structural breaks to annual CPI data between 1918 and 2010 for 17 major cities. With an endogenously determined single break in 1985, and two breaks in 1943 and 1990 respectively, the test results provide overwhelming evidence of convergence of relative prices across cities, which is consistent with the existing literature. Most importantly, this study finds that the speed of convergence with structural break(s) is much faster than that reported by previous panel studies with no structural break. Furthermore, correcting for small-sample bias (the so-called “Nickell Bias”) and time aggregation bias generates a half-life of 2.8 years with two breaks, which is 74% shorter than the half-life estimate with no structural break and no bias correction. These results highlight the importance of structural break(s) and bias correction in obtaining reasonable panel estimates of the half-life to relative price convergence among U. S. cities. |
| Date: | 2012–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:shs:wpaper:1204&r=ure |
| By: | Christofides, Louis N. (University of Cyprus); Hoy, Michael (University of Guelph); Milla, Joniada (University of Guelph); Stengos, Thanasis (University of Guelph) |
| Abstract: | We explore the forces that shape the development of aspirations and the achievement of grades during high school and the role that these aspirations, grades, and other variables play in educational outcomes such as going to university and graduating. We find that parental expectations and peer effects have a significant impact on educational outcomes through grades, aspirations, and their interconnectedness, an issue explained in the context of a rich, longitudinal data set. Apart from this indirect path, parents and peers also influence educational outcomes directly. Policy measures that operate on parental influences may modify educational outcomes in desired directions. |
| Keywords: | university attendance, aspirations, peers, parents, Canada |
| JEL: | I20 J00 |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6867&r=ure |
| By: | Jason Allen; Robert Clark; Jean-François Houde |
| Abstract: | This paper measures market power in a decentralized market where contracts are determined through a search and negotiation process. The mortgage industry has many institutional features which suggest competitiveness: homogeneous contracts, negotiable rates, and, for a given consumer, common lending costs across lenders. As a result, even with a small number of lenders, informed borrowers can gather multiple quotes. However, there is important heterogeneity in the ability of consumers to understand the subtleties of financial contracts, in their ability or willingness to search and negotiate for quotes, and also in their degree of loyalty to their main financial institution. We propose and estimate a model to disentangle the different channels through which market power can arise for a given transaction in this environment. There are two main sources of market power. The first is search frictions. We find that over the five year period of the contract the average search cost corresponds to an upfront sunk cost of between $1,047 and $1,590. The second main source of market power is switching costs. We estimate that consumers are willing to pay between $759 and $1,617 upfront to avoid having to switch banks. |
| Keywords: | Financial institutions; Financial services; Market structure and pricing |
| JEL: | G21 L22 D4 |
| Date: | 2012 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocawp:12-30&r=ure |
| By: | Ginés de Rus; M. Pilar Socorro |
| Abstract: | In this paper we analyze the consequences of access pricing on infrastructure investment and intermodal competition. First, we analyze the optimal access prices to be charged to private operators. We find that the optimal access price to be charged for the use of a particular infrastructure depends on the existence of intermodal substitution or complementarity with other transport modes and infrastructures. Second, we analyze under which circumstances the investment in rail infrastructure is socially desirable both in a context with and without budget constraints. The positive net present value of the investment is not a sufficient condition. The necessary and sufficient condition implies a positive difference in social welfare for the cases in which the new infrastructure is and is not constructed. |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2012-06&r=ure |
| By: | Leme, Maria Carolina da Silva; Lozano, Paula; Ponczek, Vladimir P.; Souza, André Portela |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the impact of the use of structured methods on the quality of education of the students in primary public school in Brazil. Structure methods encompass a range of pedagogical and managerial instruments applied to the education system. In recent years, several municipalities in the State of São Paulo have contracted out private educational providers to implement these structured methods in their schooling system.Their pedagogical proposal involves structuring curriculum contents, elaboration and use of teachers and students textbooks, and training and supervision of the teachers and instructors. Using a difference in differences estimation strategy, we find that the fourth and eighth grader students in the municipalities with structured methods performed better in Portuguese and Math than students in municipalities not exposed to the methods. We find no differences in approval rates. However, a robustness check is not able to discard the possibility that unobserved municipal characteristics may affect the results. |
| Date: | 2012–09–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:eesptd:291&r=ure |
| By: | Rodrigues, Clarissa G.; Pinto, Cristine Campos de Xavier; Santos, Daniel D. |
| Abstract: | We estimate the impact of having attended center-based daycare institutions during early childhood on Math test scores at the 4th grade of elementary school. Because enrollment in daycare centers may depend on unobservable character-istics of the family and the child, we build and estimate a structural model of endogeneous choice of school to deal with the selectivity problem. We nd that attendance to daycare institutions is associated with a gain of approximately 0,04 standard deviation in Math test scores. This result is important to the extent our OLS results as well as most of the studies for Brazil nd no e¤ect associated to daycare attendance, suggesting selectivity may play a role on this finding. |
| Date: | 2012–09–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fgv:eesptd:290&r=ure |
| By: | Torben Kuhlenkasper; Max Friedrich Steinhardt |
| Abstract: | This paper provides new evidence on the outmigration behaviour of foreign-born immigrants. Our analysis is based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel covering the period 1984 to 2010. A unique feature of our paper is the use of new data from panel-drop out studies, which allows us to identify outmigration. As statistical technique, we employ penalized spline smoothing in the context of a Poisson-type Generalized Additive Mixed Model (GAMM), which enables us to incorporate bivariate interaction effects. For Non-Turkish immigrants we find a u-shaped pattern between human capital endowment and outmigration. For Turkish immigrants, outmigration is characterized by a positive selfselection with respect to skill intensifying the initial negative selection process. In addition to this, family characteristics have strong effects on emigration decisions. Finally, our results highlight substantial variation in outmigration behaviour during the life cycle. |
| Keywords: | Emigration, Self-selection, German Socio-Economic Panel, Generalized Additive Mixed Models |
| JEL: | C14 C51 F22 J61 |
| Date: | 2012–09–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cel:dpaper:3&r=ure |
| By: | Miguel García-Posada (Banco de España); Juan S. Mora-Sanguinetti (Banco de España) |
| Abstract: | Taking advantage of a rich database of more than 1 million companies in Spain, France and the U.K., we propose and test a hypothesis to explain why Spain has one of the world’s lowest business bankruptcy rates, even during the current economic crisis and after controlling for market exit rates. This hypothesis is based on two premises, the low efficiency of the Spanish bankruptcy system relative to that of an alternative insolvency institution, the mortgage system, and the unattractiveness of the personal bankruptcy law |
| Keywords: | Bankruptcy, mortgage, insolvency |
| JEL: | G33 G21 K0 |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bde:wpaper:1234&r=ure |
| By: | Newell, Andrew T. (University of Sussex); Gazeley, Ian (University of Sussex) |
| Abstract: | At the beginning of the twentieth century Britain was roughly halfway through a 60-year demographic transition with declining infant mortality and birth rates. Cities exhibited great and strongly correlated diversity in these rates. We demonstrate cross-section correlations with, for instance, women's employment, population density, literacy and improved water supply and sanitation, that have been linked to the transition. When we analyse data from the late 1850s and the early 1900s, the changes in the two rates are not correlated across cities, but we find a robust and large impact from sanitation improvement to long-period infant mortality reduction. We also find the extension of basic literacy is related to increases in female labour market participation, which is in turn related to fertility reduction. Lastly we find that more rapid urban growth accelerates fertility decline, but, in late 19th century Britain it slowed the reduction of infant mortality. |
| Keywords: | fertility, infant mortality, education and sanitary reform, women's participation, education, 19th century and early 20th century Britain |
| JEL: | N33 J13 I15 |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp6855&r=ure |
| By: | E. Glenn Dutcher; Krista Jabs Saral |
| Abstract: | Telecommuting policies have been increasingly adopted by employers. The benefits of telecommuting from the employer's perspective include direct cost-saving from not having to house employees in an office and indirect cost-saving through reduced turnover associated with increased employee satisfaction. The downside is the perceived opportunity for shirking outside of the traditional workplace, a problem which is potentially exacerbated if employees are placed into telecommuting teams. Using a controlled experiment which randomly assigned subjects to participate in the laboratory (non-telecommuters) or to participate online in a location of their choice (telecommuters), we directly test whether telecommuters are more likely to free ride when in teams and whether or not the locational composition of the team influences this outcome. We find no evidence of free-riding in teams for either telecommuters or non-telecommuters. We also find that variation in output when a worker is paired in a traditional team versus a telecommuting team can be attributed to the beliefs subjects have about their teammates' productivity. The last result leads directly to policy implications for managers. |
| Keywords: | Telecommuting, Team Production, Productivity, Virtual Teams, Economic Experiments |
| JEL: | J21 J24 J28 C90 |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:inn:wpaper:2012-22&r=ure |
| By: | Carbó Valverde, Santiago; Degryse, Hans; Rodriguez-Fernandez, Francisco |
| Abstract: | Banks have been heavily involved in securitization. We study whether the involvedness of a firm’s main bank into different types of securitization activity -- asset backed securities (ABS) and covered bonds -- influences credit supply before and during the 2007-8 financial crisis. Both types of securitization allow the bank to generate liquidity. To the extent that ABS activity lowers lending standards in normal times, banks with more ABS activity may reduce their lending more in crisis times as an ex-post effect of a previously higher risk adoption. Employing a disequilibrium model to identify credit rationing, we find that a longer relationship with a firm’s main bank considerable improve credit supply. In general, we find that a relationship with a bank that is more involved in securitization activities relaxes credit constraints in normal periods. In contrast, while a relationship with a firm’s main bank that issues covered bonds reduces credit rationing during crisis periods, the issuance of asset backed securities by a firm’s main bank aggravates these firm’s credit rationing in crisis periods. |
| Keywords: | financial crisis; lending relationships; securitization |
| JEL: | G21 |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:9138&r=ure |
| By: | Massimo Filippini (Department of Economics, University of Lugano; ETH, Zurich, Switzerland); Martin Koller (ETH, Zurich, Switzerland) |
| Abstract: | The purpose of this study is to analyze the level of cost efficiency of Swiss Post's postal delivery units to enable policy makers' as well as Swiss Post to decide on the reactions to market changes. In particular, we use different panel data models to assess cost efficiency in these units to account for unobserved heterogeneity. The results from applying Mundlak's formulation to the Pooled stochastic frontier model provides evidence that this model is not affected by a heterogeneity bias and that the cost efficiency values lie within a lower and upper bound of the other recent and standard econometric frontier models. Overall, the analysis shows that assumptions on unobserved heterogeneity are crucial and that results of econometric cost efficiency measurement models have to be interpreted with corresponding caution. |
| Keywords: | cost efficiency, stochastic frontier models, unobserved heterogeneity, Mundlak, postal delivery network |
| JEL: | C33 D24 H42 L87 |
| Date: | 2012–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:lug:wpaper:1206&r=ure |