nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2012‒09‒03
forty-five papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Testing for rational bubbles in the housing market By Bjørnar Karlsen Kivedal
  2. Entrepreneurship, Knowledge, Space, and Place: Evolutionary Economic Geography meets Austrian Economics By Erik Stam; Jan Lambooy
  3. Shelter from the storm -- but disconnected from jobs : lessons from urban South Africa on the importance of coordinating housing and transport policies By Lall, Somik V.; Brink, Rogier van den; Dasgupta, Basab; Leresche, Kay Muir
  4. Entrepreneurship and Urban Growth: An Empirical Assessment with Historical Mines By Edward L. Glaeser; Sari Pekkala Kerr; William R. Kerr
  5. Selecting Growth Measures for School and Teacher Evaluations By Cory Koedel; Mark Ehlert; Eric Parsons; Michael Podgursky
  6. Housing Equity Withdrawal, Property Bubbles and Consumption By Lydon, Reamonn; O'Hanlon, Niall
  7. The role of geographical proximity in innovation: Do regional and local levels really matter? By Gust-Bardon, Natalia Irena
  8. When High Tech ceases to be High Growth: The Loss of Dynamism of the Cambridgeshire Region By Erik Stam; Ron Martin
  9. Neighborhood Quality and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Quasi-Random Neighborhood Assignment of Immigrants By Anna Piil Damm
  10. The Impact of Community Schools on Student Dropout in Pre-vocational Education By Heers, M.; Van Klaveren, C.; Groot, W. and Maassen van den Brink, H.
  11. GINI DP 42: Home-Ownership, Housing Regimes and Income Inequalities in Western Europe By Michelle Norris; Nessa Winston
  12. Public greenspace and life satisfaction in urban Australia By Christopher L Ambrey; Christopher M Fleming
  13. Football to Improve Math and Reading Performance By Van Klaveren, C.; De Witte, K.
  14. The Heterogeneous Effects of Gasoline Taxes: Why Where We Live Matters By Spiller, Elisheba; Stephens, Heather M.
  15. The devil's in the tail: residential mortgage finance and the U.S. Treasury By W. Scott Frame; Larry D. Wall; Lawrence J. White
  16. "Access, Sorting and Achievement: the Short-Run Effects of Free Primary Education in Kenya" By Adrienne M. Lucas; Isaac M. Mbiti
  17. House prices, credit growth, and excess volatility: implications for monetary and macroprudential policy By Paolo Gelain; Kevin J. Lansing; Caterina Mendicino
  18. The Resilience of Dutch Regions to Economic Shocks. Measuring the relevance of interactions among firms and workers. By Dario Diodato; Anet Weterings
  19. Does Immigration Into Their Neighborhoods Incline Voters Toward the Extreme Right? The Case of the Freedom Party of Austria By Halla, Martin; Wagner, Alexander F; Zweimüller, Josef
  20. Spatial Allocation of Economy as a Fiber Bundle By Van-Ilya, Andrei
  21. An 'extended" Knowledge Production Function approach to the genesis of innovation in the European regions By Charlot, S.; Crescenzi, R.; Musolesi, A.
  22. Mortgage Market Design By John Y. Campbell
  23. The relationship between output and unemployment in Scotland: A regional analysis By Revoredo-Giha, Cesar; Leat, Philip M.K.; Renwick, Alan W.
  24. Policy Intervention in Debt Renegotiation: Evidence from the Home Affordable Modification Program By Sumit Agarwal; Gene Amromin; Itzhak Ben-David; Souphala Chomsisengphet; Tomasz Piskorski; Amit Seru
  25. When migrants rule: the legacy of mass migration on economic development in the US By Andrés Rodríguez-Pose; Viola von Berlepsch
  26. The Impact of Physical Education on Obesity among Elementary School Children By John Cawley; David Frisvold; Chad Meyerhoefer
  27. How to evaluate the impact of academic spin-offs on regional development By Donato Iacobucci; Alessandra Micozzi
  28. Regional development in the context of an innovation process By Gust-Bardon, Natalia Irena
  29. Competitive dynamics across industries: An analysis of inter-industry competition in German passenger transportation By Albers, Sascha; Heuermann, Caroline
  30. Modelling Australia's Retail Mortgage Rate By Abbas Valadkhani; Sajid Anwar
  31. Asymptotic F Test in a GMM Framework with Cross Sectional Dependence By Min Seong Kim; Yixiao Sun
  32. How smart are investors after the subprime mortgage crisis? Evidence from the securitization market By Gürtler, Marc; Hibbeln, Martin
  33. The externalities of crime: The effect of criminal involvement of parents on the educational attainment of their children By Rud, I.; Van Klaveren, C.; Groot, W. and Maassen van den Brink, H.
  34. Long-Distance Moves and Labour Market Outcomes of Dual-Earner Couples in the UK and Germany By Philipp M. Lersch
  35. Student performance and imprisonment By Kaja Høiseth Brugård and Torberg Falch
  36. Supranational Infrastructure Regulation: Institutional Opportunities and Challenges By Antonio Estache; Liam Wren-Lewis
  37. A possible role for discriminatory fuel duty in reducing the emissions from road transport: Some UK evidence By David C Broadstock; Xun Chen
  38. The Dynamics and Evolution of Local Industries – The case of Linköping By Fredin, Sabrina
  39. House prices and stock prices: Different roles in the U.S. monetary transmission mechanism By Hilde C. Bjørnland; Dag Henning Jacobsen
  40. Family Background, Informal Networks and the Decision to Provide for Old Age: A Siblings Approach By Bettina Lamla
  41. Highway capital expenditures and vehicle travel By Concas, Sisinino
  42. A Note on Stability of Self-Consistent Equilibrium in an Asynchronous Model of Discrete-Choice with Social Interaction By Kaizoji, Taisei
  43. The Effect of Transport Infrastructure on Home Production Activity: Evidence from Rural New York, 1825–1845 By Andrew Coleman
  44. Conditional cash transfers and school enrollment : impact of the conditional cash transfer program in the Philippines By Chaudhury, Nazmul; Okamura, Yuko
  45. Does Geographical Proximity Still Matter? By Olivier Bouba-Olga; Marie Ferru

  1. By: Bjørnar Karlsen Kivedal (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology)
    Abstract: This paper investigates the presence of a bubble in the US housing market prior to the 2007 subprime mortgage financial crisis. The relationship between housing prices and rental prices, known as the price-rent ratio, is an important measure of a potential deviation between housing prices and its fundamental value. Additionally, the interest rate is taken into account since it is an important factor in determining demand for housing mortgages and thereby influence housing prices. These relationships are then put into a theoretical model framework. The empirical evidence suggests that there was a bubble in the housing market prior to the financial crisis, even when controlling for the decreasing interest rate in the period. Hence, the econometric procedures used in the analysis may be relevant for monitoring the housing market.
    Date: 2012–08–17
  2. By: Erik Stam; Jan Lambooy
    Abstract: In this paper we investigate the spatial aspects of the conditions of entrepreneurship on the one hand, and the consequences of entrepreneurship on the other hand. The consequences are the effects of individual interactions that may lead to the emergence of complex systems that are largely the "result of human action, but not of human design" (Hayek, 1967). These emergent systems have spatial coordinates and localized effects on the growth of knowledge and economic activity. The emergent systems - new organizations, institutions, industrial clusters, cities, and regions - in turn form the context for subsequent entrepreneurial actions. We show the strengths and opportunities of Austrian economics for the indeterminate dynamic analysis of entrepreneurship and evolving selection environments, and the spatial aspects of these processes and structures. We explicitly investigate the bridge between evolutionary economic geography and Austrian economics. The paper is structured as follows: in the second section, we introduce Austrian as well as evolutionary geographic treatments of entrepreneurship. In the third section we investigate entrepreneurship and its conditions of space and place. In the fourth section, we elaborate on the urban aspects of the conditions of entrepreneurship as it is approached in evolutionary theories. The fifth section centers on the spatial aspects of the consequences of entrepreneurship, with a particular focus on its impact on urban and regional development.
    Keywords: entrepreneurship, space, place, evolutionary economic geography, Austrian economics, regional development
    JEL: B52 B53 L26 M13 R11
    Date: 2012–08
  3. By: Lall, Somik V.; Brink, Rogier van den; Dasgupta, Basab; Leresche, Kay Muir
    Abstract: Informal settlements are a permanent feature of South Africa's cities. Estimates from the General Household Survey by Statistics South Africa show that more than 26 percent of all households in the country's six metropolitan areas live in informal dwellings. The government's policy efforts have focused on provision of subsidized housing, first introduced as part of the Reconstruction and Development Program. Through the lens of new urbanism and coordination in planning this paper explores the possible impact of the program using data from the General Household Survey. The analysis of the program's beneficiaries relative to non-beneficiaries does not show that public housing provision has multiplier effects in terms of complementary private investments in housing maintenance or in upgrading. This is likely because Reconstruction and Development Program housing is often far from employment centers, with the houses built in the"old"apartheid locations that are disconnected from employment centers. In addition, households do not receive title deeds and are not allowed to rent out these dwelling. On the demand side, the authors carried out a small sample survey in Cape Town and find that, on a per hectare basis, shack dwellers are paying around the same for access to land as can be found in the up-scale market for undeveloped land. However, land zoning regulations and subdivision laws do not allow supply of small plots that are compatible with the affordability of poor households.
    Keywords: Housing&Human Habitats,Urban Housing,Municipal Housing and Land,Real Estate Development,Land and Real Estate Development
    Date: 2012–08–01
  4. By: Edward L. Glaeser (Harvard University); Sari Pekkala Kerr (Wellesley College); William R. Kerr (Harvard Business School, Entrepreneurial Management Unit)
    Abstract: Measures of entrepreneurship, such as average establishment size and the prevalence of start-ups, correlate strongly with employment growth across and within metropolitan areas, but the endogeneity of these measures bedevils interpretation. Chinitz (1961) hypothesized that coal mines near Pittsburgh led that city to specialization in industries, like steel, with significant scale economies and that those big firms led to a dearth of entrepreneurial human capital across several generations. We test this idea by looking at the spatial location of past mines across the United States: proximity to historical mining deposits is associated with bigger firms and fewer start-ups in the middle of the 20th century. We use mines as an instrument for our entrepreneurship measures and find a persistent link between entrepreneurship and city employment growth; this connection works primarily through lower employment growth of start-ups in cities that are closer to mines. These effects hold in cold and warm regions alike and in industries that are not directly related to mining, such as trade, finance and services. We use quantile instrumental variable regression techniques and identify mostly homogeneous effects throughout the conditional city growth distribution.
    Keywords: Entrepreneurship, Industrial Organization, Chinitz, Agglomeration, Clusters, Cities, Mines.
    JEL: L0 L1 L2 L6 N5 N9 O1 O4 R0 R1
    Date: 2012–08
  5. By: Cory Koedel (Department of Economics, University of Missouri-Columbia); Mark Ehlert (Department of Economics, University of Missouri-Columbia); Eric Parsons (Department of Economics, University of Missouri-Columbia); Michael Podgursky (Department of Economics, University of Missouri-Columbia)
    Abstract: The specifics of how growth models should be constructed and used to evaluate schools and teachers is a topic of lively policy debate in states and school districts nationwide. In this paper we take up the question of model choice and examine three competing approaches. The first approach, reflected in the popular student growth percentiles (SGPs) framework, eschews all controls for student covariates and schooling environments. The second approach, typically associated with value-added models (VAMs), controls for student background characteristics and aims to identify the causal effects of schools and teachers. The third approach, also VAM-based, fully levels the playing field so that the correlation between school- and teacher-level growth measures and student demographics is essentially zero. We argue that the third approach is the most desirable for use in educational evaluation systems. Our case rests on personnel economics, incentive-design theory, and the potential role that growth measures can play in improving instruction in K-12 schools.
    Keywords: Teacher evaluation, school evaluation, value-added models, value-added versus SGP
    JEL: I20
    Date: 2012–08–17
  6. By: Lydon, Reamonn (Central Bank of Ireland); O'Hanlon, Niall (Central Statistics Office)
    Abstract: At the peak of the Irish property boom in the rst decade of the 2000s, housing equity withdrawal, or \top-up" loans, accounted for one-third of residential mortgage loans issued. This collateral-based lending was typically issued at a signicant discount to other forms of personal lending, often at tracker rates. Following the collapse of the Irish housing market, the value of top-up loans issued in 2011 was down 97 percent from 2006 - the peak year for this form of lending. This paper draws out some of the trends in housing equity withdrawal over the last decade, both in terms of the extent of lending that occurred and the reasons for borrowers taking out such loans. From a domestic demand perspective, the concern would be the extent to which this form of borrowing fed into domestic consumption and the longer-terms implications for Irish economic growth. In this context we show that equity withdrawal trends are strongly positively correlated with a number of demand measures, mainly related to spending on durables.
    Date: 2012–08
  7. By: Gust-Bardon, Natalia Irena
    Abstract: Globalisation and the advent of information and communication technology (ICT) change the role of spatial distance in innovation activities. Geographical proximity used to be seen as a necessary condition to share tacit knowledge and to enhance trust between innovators; now this approach is being challenged by claiming that the role played by spatial distance diminishes with time. The aim of this paper is to present territorial innovation models as examples of theories based on assumptions of a crucial role of local environment and spatial distance in innovation processes and to present arguments against the said assumption. The paper concludes advocating the encouragement to cooperate both within the local network area and with distant partners and the creation of territorial innovation models as open systems engaged in interactive learning by global connectivity. --
    Date: 2012
  8. By: Erik Stam; Ron Martin
    Abstract: This paper analyses mechanisms of decline and renewal in high-tech regions, illustrated with empirical evidence on the Cambridgeshire high-tech region in the UK. The paper contributes to ecological ('carrying capacity') and evolutionary (path dependence) theories of regional development. It provides a longitudinal, multilevel analysis of invention, firm, and industry dynamics and change in the supply and costs of resources in order to explain the decline of high-tech regions. While expansion of the Cambridgeshire high-tech region has been sustained over time, recently forces of decline have been stronger than those of renewal. Decline in employment has been most marked in the local telecommunications and biotech sectors, while the creation of variety by new firms has fallen off most strongly in the local IT software & services industry. Increasing diseconomies of agglomeration are in evidence, together with a contraction of finance that may have been a harbinger of financial stringency to come.
    Keywords: high-tech regions, industrial dynamics, innovation, entrepreneurship, cluster decline
    JEL: L22 M13 O31 R11
    Date: 2012–08
  9. By: Anna Piil Damm (Department of Economics and Business, Aarhus University)
    Abstract: Using survey information about characteristics of personal contacts linked with administrative register information on employment status one year later, I show that unemployed survey respondents with many employed acquaintances have a higher job finding rate. Settlement in a socially deprived neighborhood may, therefore, hamper individual labor market outcomes because of lack of employed contacts. I investigate this hypothesis by exploiting a unique natural experiment that occurred between 1986 and 1998 when refugee immigrants to Denmark were assigned to municipalities quasi-randomly, which successfully addresses the methodological problem of endogenous neighborhood selection. Taking account of location sorting, living in a socially deprived neighborhood does not affect labor market outcomes of refugee men. Furthermore, their labor market outcomes are not affected by the overall employment rate of men living in the neighborhood, but positively affected by the employment rate of non-Western immigrant men and co-national men living in the neighborhood. This is strong evidence that immigrants find jobs in part through their employed immigrant and co-ethnic contacts in the neighborhood of residence and that a high quality of contacts increases the individual's employment chances and annual earnings.
    Keywords: Residential job search networks, referral, contacts, neighborhood quality, labor market outcomes
    JEL: J60 J31 R30
    Date: 2012–08
  10. By: Heers, M.; Van Klaveren, C.; Groot, W. and Maassen van den Brink, H.
    Abstract: Dropout prevention is highly ranked on the political agenda in many countries. It remains unclear, however, how dropout can be eectively reduced, as many different factors are determining student dropout. Community schools recognize this and modernize education such that it better accommodates students' personal needs. As a result these schools cooperate more with external organizations, stimulate parental involvement in the educational process and organize more extra-curricular activities. Despite the increasing number of community schools, there is no empirical evidence that these schools reduce student dropout. This study examines the impact of Dutch community schools on student dropout. It focuses in particular on pre-vocational education, because dropout is particularly high in this educational track. Moreover, the focus is on the city of Rotterdam because this city is a forerunner in the Netherlands in establishing community schools. Unique registration data are used on all Rotterdam students who were enrolled in pre-vocational education between 2004 and 2008. The impact of community schools is identied by exploiting the fact that community schools were created not before the beginning of the school year 2006/2007. This enables us to estimate the community school impact by means of a dierence-in-dierences estimation model combined with an iterative matching approach. The estimation results suggest that community schools are as effective as regular schools with respect to dropout reduction. Community school subsidies do not seem to contribute to reducing dropout.
    Keywords: Dropout; community schools; pre-vocational education; difference-in-differences; matching
    Date: 2012
  11. By: Michelle Norris (Extension at the Champaign Center, University of Illinois); Nessa Winston
    Abstract: This article compares the structural features of home-ownership systems in EU15 countries (home-ownership rates, mortgages and public subsidisation of this tenure) with data on inequalities in outcomes (variations in home-ownership access, risks and standards between income groups). Its purpose is to assess the relevance of the debate on the convergence and divergence of housing systems which has dominated the comparative housing literature. The article concludes that, depending on the level of analysis adopted and the particular variables selected for examination, elements of both convergence and divergence are evident in Western European home-ownership systems. The comparative housing literature has also largely failed to capture the key inter-country cleavages in home-ownership systems that are between the Northern and Southern EU15 countries. These shortcomings are related to methodological and conceptual problems in this literature.
    Date: 2012–07
  12. By: Christopher L Ambrey; Christopher M Fleming
    Keywords: Greenspace, non-market valuation, life satisfaction, happiness, Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (HILDA), Geographic Information Systems (GIS)
    JEL: Q51 C21 R20
    Date: 2012–01
  13. By: Van Klaveren, C.; De Witte, K.
    Abstract: Schools frequently increase instructional time to improve students' numeric and reading performance, but there is little evidence on the effectiveness of such an increase. This study evaluates 'Playing for Success', an extended day program for underachieving pupils that uses the football environment as a motivating force. Primary school pupils with low motivation and self-esteem are offered practical and sports related teaching content for 30 additional hours. The program is evaluated using a randomized controlled field experiment. The results indicate that Playing for Success does not signicantly improve math and reading performance of primary school students.
    Keywords: Achievement; Child Development; Evaluation; Motivation; Extended School Day.
    Date: 2012
  14. By: Spiller, Elisheba (Resources for the Future); Stephens, Heather M.
    Abstract: Using disaggregated confidential household data, we estimate spatial variation in household-level gasoline price elasticities and the welfare effects of gasoline taxes. A novel approach allows us to model a discrete-continuous household choice of vehicle bundles, while disaggregating the choice set and including vehicle-specific fixed effects and unobserved consumer heterogeneity. The mean elasticity of demand for gasoline is -0.67, but with tremendous variation across location and income. We find that rural households have 30 percent more negative welfare impacts than urban households from gasoline taxes. Finally, we explore different policies that can help to mitigate welfare inequalities due to these taxes.
    Keywords: gasoline taxes, welfare, elasticity, rural, commuting, transportation
    JEL: Q0 R0 H0
    Date: 2012–07–18
  15. By: W. Scott Frame; Larry D. Wall; Lawrence J. White
    Abstract: This paper seeks to contribute to the U.S. housing finance reform conversation by providing a critical assessment of the various types of policy proposals that have been offered. There appears to be a broad consensus to maintain explicit government guarantees for certain narrowly defined borrower populations, such as Federal Housing Administration insurance guarantees for low- and moderate-income and first-time homebuyers. However, the expected role of the federal government in the broader housing finance system is in dispute. The expected role ranges from no role to insuring against only extreme or tail events to insuring against all losses. However, most proposals agree that any public insurance be priced and available only for loans meeting specified criteria to limit taxpayer exposure.
    Date: 2012
  16. By: Adrienne M. Lucas (Department of Economics, University of Delaware); Isaac M. Mbiti (Department of Economics, Southern Methodist University)
    Abstract: We examine the impact of the Kenyan Free Primary Education program on student participation, sorting, and achievement on the primary school exit examination. Exploiting variation in pre-program dropout rates between districts, we find that the program increased the number of students who completed primary school, spurred private school entry, and increased access for students from disadvantaged backgrounds. We argue that the program was welfare enhancing as it promoted educational access without substantially reducing the test scores of students who would have been in school in the absence of the program.
    Keywords: Schooling, Free Primary Education, Kenya, Achievement
    JEL: I2 O15 H52
    Date: 2012
  17. By: Paolo Gelain; Kevin J. Lansing; Caterina Mendicino
    Abstract: Progress on the question of whether policymakers should respond directly to financial variables requires a realistic economic model that captures the links between asset prices, credit expansion, and real economic activity. Standard DSGE models with fully-rational expectations have difficulty producing large swings in house prices and household debt that resemble the patterns observed in many developed countries over the past decade. We introduce excess volatility into an otherwise standard DSGE model by allowing a fraction of households to depart from fully-rational expectations. Specifically, we show that the introduction of simple moving-average forecast rules for a subset of households can significantly magnify the volatility and persistence of house prices and household debt relative to otherwise similar model with fully-rational expectations. We evaluate various policy actions that might be used to dampen the resulting excess volatility, including a direct response to house price growth or credit growth in the central bank’s interest rate rule, the imposition of more restrictive loan-to-value ratios, and the use of a modified collateral constraint that takes into account the borrower’s loan-to-income ratio. Of these, we find that a loan-to-income constraint is the most effective tool for dampening overall excess volatility in the model economy. We find that while an interest-rate response to house price growth or credit growth can stabilize some economic variables, it can significantly magnify the volatility of others, particularly inflation.
    Keywords: Housing - Prices ; Housing - Econometric models
    Date: 2012
  18. By: Dario Diodato; Anet Weterings
    Abstract: Although increasing attention is paid to the resilience of regions to economic shocks, theoretical and empirical insights in the determinants of regional resilience are still limited. This paper aims to make a first step in quantifying regional resilience. Using a model, we explore how three regional factors jointly contribute to the resilience of regions to economic shocks: 1) the network of buyer-supplier relationships within and between regions, 2) the level of relatedness between industries, which facilitates intersectoral labor mobility and, 3) the geographical position of a region which determines the possibilities of commuting for workers. The supply network mainly determines the propagation of the shock, while possibilities for intersectoral and interregional labor mobility affect a regional economy’s capacity to recover from the shock. To illustrate the workings of the model, it is applied to the case of the Netherlands using data on buyer-supplier relationships within and between Dutch regions, as well as on intersectoral and interregional labour mobility.
    Keywords: regional resilience, input-output network, labor mobility, related labor flows, commuting flows, the Netherlands
    JEL: J61 O18 R11
    Date: 2012–08
  19. By: Halla, Martin; Wagner, Alexander F; Zweimüller, Josef
    Abstract: This paper explores one potentially important channel through which immigration may drive support for extreme-right-wing parties: the presence of immigrants in the voters' neighborhoods. We study the case of the Freedom Party of Austria (FPÖ). Under the leadership of Jörg Haider, this party increased its share of votes from less than 5 percent in the early 1980s to 27 percent by the year 1999. Using past regional settlement patterns as a source of exogenous variation, we find a significantly positive effect on FPÖ votes of the residential proximity of immigrants and citizens, explaining roughly a quarter of the cross-community variance in those votes. It is the proximity of low- and medium-skilled immigrants that drives this result; high-skilled immigrants have no (or even a negative) effect on FPÖ votes.
    Keywords: immigration; political economy; voting
    JEL: J61 P16
    Date: 2012–08
  20. By: Van-Ilya, Andrei
    Abstract: This paper considers the approach to specification and modeling of transport influence on spatial allocation of economy, which is essentially new for economics. By applying the concept of fiber bundle, a general model of spatial allocation of market with regard to transport costs is developed. Corresponding mathematical formulation of model equilibrium condition and transition dynamics is stated based on the principle of least action and gauge invariance. Further development of obtained theoretical results within the framework is reviewed.
    Keywords: transport costs; market allocation in space; fiber bundle; gauge model
    JEL: C69 R12 R49
    Date: 2012–08–22
  21. By: Charlot, S.; Crescenzi, R.; Musolesi, A.
    Abstract: The paper looks at the genesis of innovation in the EU regions in ordre to shed light on the link between innovative inputs (R&D and Human Capital) and the genesis of economically valuable knowledge. The 'traditional' regional Knowledge Production Function (KPF) is innovatively developed in three complementary directions. Firs, the KPF is 'augmented' in order to control for all possible 'unobsrevable' and 'immesurable' time varying factors that influence the genesis of innovation (i.e. localised institutional and relational factors, regional innovation policies). Second, a semi-parametric approach that relaxes any arbitrary assumption on the 'shape' of the KPF is adopted. Finally, the assumption of homogeneity in the impact of R&D and Human Capital is relaxed by explicity accounting for the differences between 'core' and 'peripherial' regions. The econometric results confirm the importance of accounting for time varying unobserved heterogeneity through the adoption of a 'random growth' specification: R&D efforts exert a significant influence on innovation only after controlling for regional specific time varying unobserved factors. In addition, the semi parametric approach uncovers significant threshold effects for both R&D expenditure and Human Capital and highlights a strong complementarity between these two factors. However, 'core' regions benefit from a persistent advantage in terms of the 'productivity' of their innovation inputs. This has important implications for the EU innovation policies at the regional level.
    JEL: R11 C14 C23
    Date: 2012
  22. By: John Y. Campbell
    Abstract: This paper explores the causes and consequences of cross-country variation in mortgage market structure. It draws on insights from several fields: urban economics, asset pricing, behavioral finance, financial intermediation, and macroeconomics. It discusses lessons from the credit boom, the challenges of mortgage modification in the aftermath of the boom, consumer financial protection, and alternative mortgage forms and funding models. The paper argues that the US has much to learn from mortgage finance in other countries, and specifically from the Danish implementation of the European covered bonds system.
    JEL: G21 R21 R31
    Date: 2012–08
  23. By: Revoredo-Giha, Cesar; Leat, Philip M.K.; Renwick, Alan W.
    Abstract: The relationship between unemployment and growth (i.e., the so-called Okun’s Law) has long standing in macroeconomics and regional economics. In this paper we estimate such a relationship for Scotland and at the Nomenclature of Territorial Units for Statistics (NUTS) level 3 regions using a panel dataset. The main motivations behind this interest are twofold: first, to test whether such a relationship exists in Scotland and how different these estimates are from those produced for the UK. Second, whether there exist regional differences in the estimates. The latter is particularly important in the context of the current budgetary cuts, which may affect both GDP growth and unemployment in different ways rural and urban areas. Results indicate that the Okun’s coefficient for Scotland is slightly higher than the one computed for the UK (1.7 Scotland versus 1.39 and 1.45 for the UK), and although an Okun relationship seemed to be valid for most of the regions, there were no statistical differences between rural and urban areas. However, as regards the effect of economic growth on unemployment, the results indicate a different and stronger effect in urban areas than in rural areas.
    Keywords: Unemployment, Scotland, growth, panel data, cointegration, Labor and Human Capital, Public Economics,
    Date: 2012
  24. By: Sumit Agarwal; Gene Amromin; Itzhak Ben-David; Souphala Chomsisengphet; Tomasz Piskorski; Amit Seru
    Abstract: The main rationale for policy intervention in debt renegotiation is to enhance such activity when foreclosures are perceived to be inefficiently high. We examine the ability of the government to influence debt renegotiation by empirically evaluating the effects of the 2009 Home Affordable Modification Program that provided intermediaries (servicers) with sizeable financial incentives to renegotiate mortgages. A difference-in-difference strategy that exploits variation in program eligibility criteria reveals that the program generated an increase in the intensity of renegotiations while adversely affecting effectiveness of renegotiations performed outside the program. Renegotiations induced by the program resulted in a modest reduction in rate of foreclosures but did not alter the rate of house price decline, durable consumption, or employment in regions with higher exposure to the program. The overall impact of the program will be substantially limited since it will induce renegotiations that will reach just one-third of its targeted 3 to 4 million indebted households. This shortfall is in large part due to low renegotiation intensity of a few large servicers that responded at half the rate than others. The muted response of these servicers cannot be accounted by differences in contract, borrower, or regional characteristics of mortgages across servicers. Instead, their low renegotiation activity—which is also observed before the program—reflects servicer specific factors that appear to be related to their preexisting organizational capabilities. Our findings reveal that the ability of government to quickly induce changes in behavior of large intermediaries through financial incentives is quite limited, underscoring significant barriers to the effectiveness of such polices.
    JEL: E60 E65 G18 G21 H3
    Date: 2012–08
  25. By: Andrés Rodríguez-Pose; Viola von Berlepsch
    Abstract: This paper examines the extent to which the distinct settlement pattern of migrants arriving in the US during the big migration waves of the late 19th and early 20th centuries has left a legacy on the economic development of the counties where they settled and whether this legacy can be traced until today. Using data from the 1880, 1900 and 1910 censuses, we first look at the geography of migration across US counties in the 48 continental states. We then link this settlement pattern of migrants to current levels of local development – proxied by GDP per capita at county level in 2005 – while controlling for a number of factors which may have influenced both the location of migrants at the time of migration, as well as for the economic development of the county today. The results of the econometric analysis including instrumental variables underline that the big migration waves have left an indelible trace on territories which determines their economic performance until today. US counties which attracted large numbers of migrants more than a century ago are still more dynamic today than counties that did not. The results also show that the territorial imprint of migration has become more pervasive than all other local characteristics which would have determined and shaped economic performance in the late 19th and early 20th centuries.
    Keywords: Migration, economic development, institutions, culture, long-term legacy, counties, US
    Date: 2012–08
  26. By: John Cawley; David Frisvold; Chad Meyerhoefer
    Abstract: In response to the dramatic rise in childhood obesity, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) and other organizations have advocated increasing the time that elementary school children spend in physical education (PE) classes. However, little is known about the effect of PE on child weight. This paper measures that effect by instrumenting for child PE time with state policies, using data from the Early Childhood Longitudinal Study, Kindergarten Cohort (ECLS-K) for 1998-2004. Results from IV models indicate that PE lowers BMI z-score and reduces the probability of obesity among 5th graders (in particular, boys), while the instrument is insufficiently powerful to reliably estimate effects for younger children. This represents some of the first evidence of a causal effect of PE on youth obesity, and thus offers at least some support to the assumptions behind the CDC recommendations. We find no evidence that increased PE time crowds out time in academic courses or has spillovers to achievement test scores.
    JEL: H75 I12 I18 I21 K32
    Date: 2012–08
  27. By: Donato Iacobucci (Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell'Informazione, Università Politecnica delle Marche); Alessandra Micozzi (Dipartimento di Ingegneria dell'Informazione, Università Politecnica delle Marche)
    Abstract: The paper proposes a framework to evaluate the impact of academic spin-offs at regional level and applies it to the context of the Marche region (Italy). Spin-off creation is the most complex way of commercializing academic research, compared to licensing and R&D collaborations, but with the highest potential impact on the regional context. The empirical analysis shows that when measured in quantitative terms the impact of spin-offs on local economies is rather low; however, there are qualitative direct and indirect effects that must be taken into consideration. By focusing on providing R&D services, spin-offs play an important role in promoting the up-grading of the regional industrial system, which is mainly based on small and medium-sized firms in low and medium-tech sectors. Though not very successful in terms of growth and job creation in the short run, spin-offs provide an entrepreneurial experience for a high number of young researchers. We can expect that in the longer terms these people can play an important role within the local system in the start-up of new companies or as agents of innovation for established firms.
    Keywords: spin-offs, technology transfer, regional innovation system
    Date: 2012–08
  28. By: Gust-Bardon, Natalia Irena
    Abstract: The purpose of this paper is to identify main components and driving forces behind an innovation process in order to support regions in organising their endogenous innovation process. To that end, we study models of an innovation process and analyse the case of Sophia Antipolis. This theoretical study allows us to identify general inputs leading to creation of an endogenous innovation process in a region. --
    Date: 2012
  29. By: Albers, Sascha; Heuermann, Caroline
    Abstract: Whereas analyses of competitive dynamics have hitherto focused on analysing the effects of intra-industry interaction on firm performance, we explore and analyse competition between actors that stem from different industries. This inter-industry focus is novel and interesting, as it allows the exploration of competitive parameters between rivals that differ substantially in their resource endowments, organisational structures, practices and cognitive schemes. The inter-industry focus is also important, since many industries are converging and thus instil competitive interaction between actors that were traditionally separated by industry boundaries. The empirical context for this study is the competitive interaction between airlines and railways in Germany. Based on expert interviews and grounded theory analysis, we shed light onto hitherto neglected facets of awareness, motivation and capability as drivers of competitive actions. We thereby contribute to both competitive dynamics as well as transport strategy literatures. --
    Keywords: strategy,competitive dynamics,air transport,railway
    JEL: L10 L91 M19
    Date: 2012
  30. By: Abbas Valadkhani (University of Wollongong); Sajid Anwar (The University of the Sunshine Coast)
    Abstract: There is an ongoing controversy over whether banks’ mortgage rates rise more readily than they fall due to their asymmetric responses to changes in the cash rate. This paper examines the dynamic interplay between the cash rate and the variable mortgage rate using monthly data in the post-1989 era. Unlike previous studies for Australia, our proposed threshold and asymmetric error-correction models account for both the amount and adjustment asymmetries. We found thatrate rises have much larger and more instantaneous impact on the mortgage rate than rate cuts, suggesting an urgent need for monitoring the banks’ lending behaviour in Australia.
    Keywords: Banks’ mortgage rates, Asymmetric and threshold error-correction models, Australia
    JEL: C24 C58 E43 E58
    Date: 2012
  31. By: Min Seong Kim (Department of Economics, Ryerson University, Toronto, Canada); Yixiao Sun (Department of Economics, UC San Diego)
    Abstract: The paper develops an asymptotically valid F test that is robust to spatial autocorrelation in a GMM framework. The test is based on the class of series covariance matrix estimators and ?fixed-smoothing asymptotics. The fi?xed-smoothing asymptotics and F approximation are established under mild sufficient conditions for a central limit theorem. These conditions can accommodate a wide range of spatial processes. This is in contrast with the standard arguments, which often impose very restrictive assumptions so that a functional central limit theorem holds. The proposed F test is very easy to implement, as critical values are from a standard F distribution. To a great extent, the asymptotic F test achieves triple robustness: it is asymptotically valid regardless of the spatial autocorrelation, the sampling region, and the limiting behavior of the smoothing parameter. Simulation shows that the F test is more accurate in size than the conventional chi-square tests, and it has the same size accuracy and power property as nonstandard tests that require computationally intensive simulation or bootstrap.
    Keywords: F distribution, Fixed-smoothing asymptotics, Heteroskedasticity and Autocorrelation Robust, Robust Standard Error, Series Method, Spatial Analysis, Spatial Autocorrelation.
    JEL: C12 C14 C18 C31
    Date: 2012–06
  32. By: Gürtler, Marc; Hibbeln, Martin
    Abstract: Two factors have proven to be strongly relevant for the subprime mortgage crisis. The first is the lack of screening incentives of originators, which had not been anticipated by investors. The second is that investors relied too much on credit ratings. We examine whether investors have learned from these shortcomings. On the basis of securitizations from 2010 and 2011, we find that investors require a significantly higher risk premium when there is a high degree of asymmetric information. The credit spreads of information sensitive tranches are significantly higher if originators do not retain a part of the securitization or if they choose vertical slice retention instead of retaining the equity tranche. Moreover, the relevance of credit ratings in comparison to other credit factors has significantly decreased. Apparently, investors mainly consider ratings to discriminate between information sensitive and information insensitive tranches, beyond that they rely on their own risk analysis. This suggests that investors have learned their lesson from the subprime mortgage crisis. --
    Keywords: security design,asset-backed securities,retention,rating,credit spreads
    JEL: G21 G24 G28
    Date: 2012
  33. By: Rud, I.; Van Klaveren, C.; Groot, W. and Maassen van den Brink, H.
    Abstract: The empirical literature on education and crime suggests that both criminal behavior and educational attainment are transferred from parents to children. However, the impact of criminal involvement of parents on educational outcomes of children tends to be ignored, even though the entailed social costs may be substantial. This study examines the effects of parents‟ criminal involvement on the educational attainment of their children. A multinomial probit model is applied in combination with a Mahalanobis matching approach to identify this effect. The findings suggest that having criminally involved parents: (1) increases the probability of only finishing primary education by 8 percentage points, and (2) decreases the probability of having a higher education degree by 13 percentage points.
    Keywords: Educational attainment, Criminal involvement, Intergenerational effects
    Date: 2012
  34. By: Philipp M. Lersch
    Abstract: Chances are high that partners in dual-earner couples do not receive equal occupational returns from long-distance moves, because job opportunities are distributed heterogeneously in space. Which partners are more likely to receive relatively higher returns after moves? Recent research shows the stratification of returns by gender and highlights the importance of gender roles in mobility decisions. I extend past literature in two ways. First, while past research mostly examined partners separately, I directly test for gender differences in matched pairs of women and men in dual-earner couples and account for the nonindependence of both careers. Second, I compare evidence from the United Kingdom (UK) and Germany to shed light on the effects of institutional and normative contexts. For my analysis, I draw longitudinal data from the British Household Panel Survey and the German Socio-Economic Panel Study (1991-2008). My results show that women in dual-earner couples are temporarily adversely affected in their careers by long-distance moves in the UK and West Germany after controlling for various characteristics of both partners. Women in East Germany are not affected by long-distance moves. Moves do not change wage rates significantly for women and men that stay in employment in both countries.
    Keywords: Residential mobility, gender inequalities, cross-national comparison, actor-partner interdependence model
    Date: 2012
  35. By: Kaja Høiseth Brugård and Torberg Falch (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology)
    Abstract: This paper studies the relationship between education and crime. We exploit Norwegian register data on skills at the end of compulsory education at age 16, high school attainment, and detailed imprisonment data. We find that skills, as measured by GPA, have a strong diminishing effect on imprisonment. The result is robust to a range of model specifications, including school and neighborhood fixed effects and IV-estimations using the result from the external exit examination as an instrument for skills. The relationship is nonlinear and driven by individuals with skills below average. Even though there is a strong relationship between GPA and high school attainment, this does not seem to be the main mechanism for the effect of GPA on imprisonment. This result is also robust to a range of model specifications.
    Date: 2012–08–17
  36. By: Antonio Estache; Liam Wren-Lewis
    Abstract: As regions around the world are considering increased integration of key energy, transport or other infrastructure networks, issues build in the design of the supranational national regulation needed in that context are increasingly well recognized. Solutions are however slow to emerge. This paper reviews the challenges and discusses the directions suggested by theory to address these challenges. It highlight the potentially counterproductive effects of common standard policy recommendations discussed at the political level. The paper also identifies key research areas as the review of match between theory and evidence suggest that we still have to address significant gaps in our collective understanding of the impediments to desirable integration efforts.
    Date: 2012–08
  37. By: David C Broadstock (Research Institute of Economics and Management (RIEM), Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Sichuan, China and Surrey Energy Economics Centre (SEEC), School of Economics, University of Surrey, UK.); Xun Chen (Research Institute of Economics and Management (RIEM), Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, Sichuan, China)
    Abstract: In this paper it is shown that the relative demands for UK Gasoline and Diesel fuels are price responsive. Given differing emissions based externalities from these two fuel types, it is contended that discriminatory fuel duty might be a means to reduce these externalities. Results are derived from an Almost Ideal Demand System with time varying technological progress, estimated using a bootstrap procedure given non-normalities and relative small sample sizes.
    Keywords: AIDS model, technology biases, time-varying parameter.
    JEL: Q40 R40
    Date: 2012–02
  38. By: Fredin, Sabrina (CIRCLE, Lund University)
    Abstract: This paper aims to analyse how innovative, individual activities influence the evolution of local industries according to three stages. When discussing the evolution of industries or economies, the concept of path dependency is often a central element. Its vague nature makes it however difficult to be used as an interpretative lens when studying the evolution of local industries. In order to limit the broad concept, several aspects have been identified for discussion; all are explicitly linked to path dependency in economic geography literature and all are acknowledged to be of significance for stimulating the evolution of local industries. Based on the review of the evolutionary economic theory literature, the following three stages have been identified: first, the entering of new knowledge which may, or may not, be the starting point for a new local industry; second, the formation of the new local industry; third, the anchoring process of the new local industry. All three stages are intertwined and include the question how the new emerging industry and the existing local structures relate to each other. The three stages will be illustrated through the discussion of the evolution of the IT industry in Linköping, Sweden.
    Keywords: Entrepreneurship; local economic development; institutional foundation; informal institutions; path dependency
    JEL: N94 O14 R11
    Date: 2012–08–20
  39. By: Hilde C. Bjørnland; Dag Henning Jacobsen
    Abstract: We analyze the role of house and stock prices in the monetary policy transmission mechanism in the U.S. using a structural VAR model. The VAR is identifed using a combination of short-run and long-run (neutrality) restrictions, allowing for contemporaneous interaction between monetary policy and asset prices. By allowing the interest rate and asset prices to react simultaneously to news, we find different roles for house and stock prices in the monetary transmission mechanism. In particular, following a contractionary monetary policy shock, stock prices fall immediately, while the response in house prices is much more gradual. However, the fall in both house prices and stock prices enhances the negative response in output and inflation that has traditionally been found in the literature. Regarding the systematic response in monetary policy, stock prices play a more important role in the interest rate setting in the short run than house prices. As a consequence, shocks to house prices contribute more to GDP and inflation fluctuations than stock price shocks.
    Keywords: VAR, monetary policy, house prices, identification
    JEL: C32 E52 E44
    Date: 2012–08
  40. By: Bettina Lamla
    Abstract: In order to encourage people to take out voluntary private pensions to supplement decreasing statutory provisions Germany introduced the so-called Riester pensions. The complex design of the new product might have created entry barriers into the market helping to explain the slow adaption path in the eligible population until today. Existing empirical evidence has not properly taken into account the search and decision costs related to Riester pensions. I use information on family background in order to account for the predisposed ability to manage relevant information as well as to capture the impact of information sharing within families. I conclude that parental erudition as well as experience in financial matters are determinants of their children’s preferences and ability in financial decision making, however, omission does not seem to lead to misleading results on other coefficients. Contemporaneous as well as sequential correlations in Riester ownership between siblings are pronounced. While the former might be due to shared preferences, I take the latter as evidence for information sharing. Positive externalities help to overcome entry barriers in the Riester market by dispersing information. The family as a source of information becomes less important with time as the number of Riester owners in other social circles grows. Once a critical mass has been reached positive spillovers create a social multiplier which should result in dynamic demand for Riester contracts. Indeed official statistics exhibit increasing uptake rates among low income individuals for whom initial entry barriers were comparably high.
    JEL: D83 D91
    Date: 2012
  41. By: Concas, Sisinino
    Abstract: We investigate the effects of public capital investment on the demand for travel. We define capital stock as a productive flow that accounts for the physical deterioration of infrastructure over time. We present a framework where additions to capital stock only cover a portion of the long-run equilibrium level, and where policy decisions are dictated by expectations of economic and travel growth. To the extent that these investments increase productivity, they generate induced travel. Using a panel dataset at the state level for the period 1982-2005, we find that the elasticity of travel demand with respect to changes in state highway capital stock is equal to 0.041in the short run, while the long-run is 0.237. Our results show that changes in capital expenditures in response to past levels of traffic are characterized by a three-year lag, suggesting that the investment response to changes in travel is slow to converge to the desired long-run levels.
    Keywords: highway capital; public capital; capital accumulation; induced vehicle travel; induced vehicle miles of travel
    JEL: H54 H41 R4 C33
    Date: 2012–08–01
  42. By: Kaizoji, Taisei
    Abstract: The aim of this paper is to demonstrate that dynamic paths in a model of discrete choice with social interactions, which have been developed by Brock and Durlauf (1999, 2001a, 2001b, 2006), converge some self-consistent equilibrium. To this aim, we propose an asynchronous model of discrete-choice with social interaction2 , in which the only individual selected cyclically is updated.
    Keywords: binary choice; social interactions; stability of self-consistent equilibrium; asynchronous model
    JEL: D71 C44 C02 C45 C25 D85
    Date: 2012–05–10
  43. By: Andrew Coleman (Motu Economic and Public Policy Research)
    Abstract: This paper examines the home production activities of newly formed and long established households in rural New York over a twenty year period after the Erie Canal was built. It shows that newly established households had lower home production activities than long established households resident in the same area, conditional on the size, age, and land-owning characteristics of the households. Thus some of the decline in aggregate production was due to the arrival of new, differently behaving households, rather than changing behaviour of established households. However, long established households eventually copied their new neighbours, reducing their home production activities to similar levels.
    Keywords: transport infrastructure; home production; Erie Canal; rural development and transformation
    JEL: N71 O33
    Date: 2012–02
  44. By: Chaudhury, Nazmul; Okamura, Yuko
    Abstract: Despite modest economic growth over the past decade, the Philippines have made little progress in reducing poverty. In this regard, the Philippines is an outlier in the region, seemingly unable to translate economic growth into meaningful poverty reduction. This underscores the fact that structural poverty remains a binding constraint to equitable growth. Furthermore, the Philippines remains highly vulnerable to climatic and other adverse shocks, making the task of poverty reduction even more challenging. To help meet short-term consumption needs while fostering investment in human capital to help break the intergenerational transmission of poverty, the Philippines launched a conditional cash transfer (CCT) program in early 2008. This study represents a first step toward rigorously documenting the causal impact of the CCT program, focusing on school enrollment from a small selective sample survey. Primarily for illustrative purposes, the study concentrated on areas where education outcomes were low before the intervention, to determine the impact on marginalized areas. The study compared school enrollment before and after CCT program implementation, using panel data of about 2,000 CCT and non-CCT children from 900 sample households in three regions of the country. The baseline data was collected in 2008 before program implementation, matched to the follow-up survey which was conducted in 2011. Under the CCT program, households receive cash transfers conditional on school enrollment and regular attendance of children aged 6-14, therefore the analysis used the sample of children aged 6-14 during the baseline (2008), and the same children aged 9-17 at the time of the follow-up survey (2011).
    Keywords: Youth and Governance,Street Children,Rural Poverty Reduction,Primary Education,Health Monitoring&Evaluation
    Date: 2012–07–01
  45. By: Olivier Bouba-Olga (CRIEF - Centre de Recherche sur l'Intégration Economique et Financière - Université de Poitiers); Marie Ferru (CRIEF - Centre de Recherche sur l'Intégration Economique et Financière - Université de Poitiers)
    Abstract: The purpose of this article is to provide possible answers, at an empirical level, to the question "Does geographical proximity still matter in collaborations for innovation?", since the lack of available data has made it impossible to provide real answers up to now. Relying on two real long-term relational databases relating to science-industry collaborations in France, and on two complementary indicators of geographical proximity, we will show that proximity continues to count (number of significant intradepartmental collaborations and low average distance between the partners). However, this dynamic analysis does allow us to state that the closest partnerships and the most distant ones increase the most over the study period. We shall also show that the role of geographical proximity and its evolution over the course of time differ according to the type of science-industry contract and the sectoral specialisation of the partners.
    Keywords: geographical proximity, collaborations, research, science-industry
    Date: 2012–08–23

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