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on Urban and Real Estate Economics |
| By: | John Cotter (School of Business, University College Dublin); Stuart Gabriel (Anderson School of Management, University of California - Los Angeles); Richard Roll (Anderson School of Management, University of California - Los Angeles) |
| Abstract: | This paper explores integration and contagion among US metropolitan housing markets. The analysis applies Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) house price repeat sales indexes from 384 metropolitan areas to estimate a multi-factor model of U.S. housing market integration. It then identifies statistical jumps in metropolitan house price returns as well as MSA contemporaneous and lagged jump correlations. Finally, the paper evaluates contagion in housing markets via parametric assessment of MSA house price spatial dynamics. A R-squared measure reveals an upward trend in MSA housing market integration over the 2000s to approximately .83 in 2010. Among California MSAs, the trend was especially pronounced, as average integration increased from about .55 in 1997 to close to .95 in 2008! The 2000s bubble period similarly was characterized by elevated incidence of statistical jumps in housing returns. Again, jump incidence and MSA jump correlations were especially high in California. Analysis of contagion among California markets indicates that house price returns in San Francisco often led those of surrounding communities; in contrast, southern California MSA house price returns appeared to move largely in lock step. The high levels of housing market integration evidenced in the analysis suggest limited investor opportunity to diversify away MSA-specific housing risk. Further, results suggest that macro and policy shocks propagate through a large number of MSA housing markets. Research findings are relevant to all market participants, including institutional investors in MBS as well as those who regulate housing, the housing GSEs, mortgage lenders, and related financial institutions. |
| Keywords: | Integration, correlation, contagion, house price returns |
| JEL: | G10 G11 G12 G14 R12 R21 |
| Date: | 2011–11–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucd:wpaper:201131&r=ure |
| By: | Wen Fan (University College Dublin) |
| Abstract: | While much empirical work concerns job tenure, this paper introduces the concept of school tenure -- the length of time one student has been in a given school. I examine whether and how school tenure impacts students’ output using rich cohort data on England’s secondary schools. Ordinary Least Squares (OLS) estimates suggest that, on average, students benefit from longer own school tenure but suffer from that of their peers. Using the number of times the student moved school during the academic year as an instrument for school tenure to deal with potential endogeneity, the resulting Two-Stage Least Squares (TSLS) estimates suggest the effects of school tenure are positive and heterogeneous across students. While advantaged students are more likely to gain from own longer school tenure, disadvantaged ones are benefit if their peers have longer tenure. |
| Keywords: | school tenure; school moving; peer effects |
| Date: | 2011–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ucn:wpaper:201124&r=ure |
| By: | Laura Guadalupe González Ortiz; Giuliano Masiero |
| Abstract: | Literature on socioeconomic determinants of antibiotic consumption in the community is limited to few countries using cross-sectional data. This paper analyses regional variations in outpatient antibiotics in Italy using a balanced panel dataset covering the period 2000-2008. We specify an econometric model where antibiotic consumption depends upon demographic and socioeconomic characteristics of the population, the supply of health care services in the community, and antibiotic copayments. The model is estimated by means of Ordinary least squares techniques with fixed effects (FE). The implications of consumption externalities across geographical areas are investigated by means of spatial-lag and spatial-error models (SLFE and SEFE). We find significant and positive income elasticity and negative effects of copayments. Antibiotic use is also affected by the age structure of the population and the supply of community health care. Finally, we find evidence of spatial dependency in the use of antibiotics across regions. This suggests that regional policies (e.g. public campaigns) aimed at increasing efficiency in antibiotic consumption and controlling bacterial resistance may be influenced by policy makers in neighbouring regions. There will be scope for a strategic and coordinated view of regional policies towards the use of antibiotics. |
| Keywords: | Antibiotic consumption. Socioeconomic inequalities. Spatial dependency. Regional policies. |
| JEL: | C21 C23 I11 I18 R00 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:brh:wpaper:1104&r=ure |
| By: | Herbst, Mikolaj; Wójcik, Piotr |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the presence of sigma and beta convergence between the Polish subregions over 1995–2006. We verify for the absolute convergence, as well as for the convergence conditioned on the stock of physical capital, human capital and the size of the central city, these being emphasised in the literature as important factors of regional growth. We also test for the presence of spatial effects in the determination of regional growth rates. In line with research from other countries, we observe a sigma divergence and unconditional beta divergence rather than convergence of income across Polish subregions. Conditional convergence is observed only between the regions around cities of similar size. Large agglomerations in particular increase their economic advantage over peripheral regions during dynamic growth periods in the Polish economy, while during periods of economic slowdown the human capital stock proves significant in determining regional growth. |
| Keywords: | regional growth; Poland; spatial regression; NTS3 |
| JEL: | O18 C31 R12 |
| Date: | 2011–10–19 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:34731&r=ure |
| By: | Coupe, Tom; Olefir, Anna; Alonso, Juan Diego |
| Abstract: | Using a rich data set of almost the entire population of Ukrainian secondary schools, the authors estimate the effect of school size and class size on the performance of secondary schools on Ukraine's External Independent Test. They find that larger schools tend to have somewhat better performance, both in terms of test scores and in terms of test participation. The size of this effect is relatively small, however, especially in rural areas for which the estimates are likely to be more clean estimates. Class size is found to be insignificant in most specifications and, if significant, of negligible size. |
| Keywords: | Tertiary Education,Secondary Education,Teaching and Learning,Education For All,Primary Education |
| Date: | 2011–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5879&r=ure |
| By: | Martinho, Vítor João Pereira Domingues |
| Abstract: | This work aims to compare the Keynesian theory, namely by the Verdoorn Law, the neoclassical theory, by the absolute convergence, and the geographic concentration, by the Rybczynski equation, explanations about the different manufactured industry of the Portuguese regions (NUTs II), for the period 1986-1994. The Verdoorn Law, is tested with the alternative specifications of Kaldor (1966. The absolute convergence is tested for the productivity. To analyze the geographic concentration, with Rybczynski equation, is tested the importance which the natural advantages and local resources are in the manufacturing industry location, in relation with the "spillovers" effects and industrial policies. -- |
| Keywords: | Verdoorn law,convergence theories,geographic concentration,panel data,manufactured industries,Portuguese regions |
| JEL: | O18 C23 R11 L60 |
| Date: | 2011–11–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:esprep:51350&r=ure |
| By: | Eric A. Hanushek; Susanne Link; Ludger Woessmann |
| Abstract: | Decentralization of decision-making is among the most intriguing recent school reforms, in part because countries went in opposite directions over the past decade and because prior evidence is inconclusive. We suggest that autonomy may be conducive to student achievement in well-developed systems but detrimental in low-performing systems. We construct a panel dataset from the four waves of international PISA tests spanning 2000-2009, comprising over one million students in 42 countries. Relying on panel estimation with country fixed effects, we identify the effect of school autonomy from within-country changes in the average share of schools with autonomy over key elements of school operations. Our results show that autonomy affects student achievement negatively in developing and low-performing countries, but positively in developed and high-performing countries. These results are unaffected by a wide variety of robustness and specification tests, providing confidence in the need for nuanced application of reform ideas. |
| JEL: | H4 I20 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2011–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17591&r=ure |
| By: | Ejaz Ghani; William R. Kerr; Stephen D. O'Connell |
| Abstract: | We analyze the spatial determinants of female entrepreneurship in India in the manufacturing and services sectors. We focus on the presence of incumbent female-owned businesses and their role in promoting higher subsequent female entrepreneurship relative to male entrepreneurship. We find evidence of agglomeration economies in both sectors, where higher female ownership among incumbent businesses within a district-industry predicts a greater share of subsequent entrepreneurs will be female. Moreover, higher female ownership of local businesses in related industries (e.g., those sharing similar labor needs, industries related via input-output markets) predict greater relative female entry rates even after controlling for the focal district-industry’s conditions. The core patterns hold when using local industrial conditions in 1994 to instrument for incumbent conditions in 2000-2005. The results highlight that the traits of business owners in incumbent industrial structures influence the types of entrepreneurs supported. |
| JEL: | J16 L10 L26 L60 L80 M13 O10 R00 R10 R12 |
| Date: | 2011–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:17596&r=ure |
| By: | Marina Murat |
| Abstract: | This paper uses data from PISA 2006 on science, mathematics and reading to analyse immigrant school gaps – negative difference between immigrants’ and natives’ scores - and the structural features of educational systems in two adjacent countries, Italy and France, with similar migration inflows and with similar schooling institutions, based on tracking. Our results show that tracking and school specific programs matter; in both countries, the school system upholds a separation between students with different backgrounds and ethnicities. Residential segregation or discrimination seem also to be at work, especially in France. Given the existing school model, a teaching support in mathematics and science in France and in reading in Italy would help immigrant students to converge to natives’ standards. |
| Keywords: | International migration; educational systems; PISA |
| JEL: | F22 I21 |
| Date: | 2011–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mod:recent:073&r=ure |
| By: | Berliant, Marcus; Watanabe, Hiroki |
| Abstract: | We criticize the theories used to explain the size distribution of cities. They take an empirical fact and work backward to obtain assumptions on primitives. The induced theoretical assumptions on consumer behavior, particularly about their inability to insure against the city-level productivity shocks in the model, are untenable. With either self insurance or insurance markets, and either an arbitrarily small cost of moving or the assumption that consumers do not perfectly observe the shocks to firms' technologies, the agents will never move. Even without these frictions, our analysis yields another equilibrium with insurance where consumers never move. Thus, insurance is a substitute for movement. We propose an alternative class of models, involving extreme risk against which consumers will not insure. Instead, they will move, generating a Fréchet distribution of city sizes that is empirically competitive with other models. |
| Keywords: | Zipf's Law; Gibrat's Law; Size Distribution of Cities; Extreme Value Theory |
| JEL: | R12 |
| Date: | 2011–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:34747&r=ure |
| By: | Jan Fagerberg (Centre for Technology, Innovation and Culture, University of Oslo); Maryann Feldman (University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill); Martin Srholec (CERGE-EI, Charles University and Economics Institute of the Academy of Sciences of the Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | This paper analyzes factors that shape the technological capabilities of individual U.S. states and European countries, which are arguably comparable policy units. The analysis demonstrates convergence in technological capabilities from 2000 to 2007. The results indicate that social capabilities, such as a highly educated labor force, an egalitarian distribution of income, a participatory democracy and prevalence of public safety, condition the growth of technological capability. The analysis also considers other aspects of territorial dynamics, such as the possible effects of spatial agglomeration, urbanization economies, and differences in industrial specialization and knowledge spillovers from neighboring regions. |
| Keywords: | innovation, technological capabilities, European Union, United States |
| Date: | 2011–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tik:inowpp:20111114&r=ure |
| By: | Herwartz, Helmut; Niebuhr, Annekatrin |
| Abstract: | The labor market effects of the recent financial and economic crisis are rather heterogeneous across countries and regions. Such differences in labor market performance among industrialized countries are an issue of ongoing research. The objective of this paper is to analyse labor market disparities among European regions and to provide evidence on the factors behind these differences. Whereas previous research focused on effects of national labor market institutions, we also take structural characteristics of regions into account and investigate differences in labor demand responsiveness and their potential determinants. The data set covers the NUTS2 regions in the EU15 for the period 1980 to 2008. We apply an error correction model that is combined with a spatial modeling approach in order to account for interaction among neighboring labor markets. Our findings point to substantially distinct labor demand responses to changes in output and wages among European countries and regions. Moreover, the rate of adjustment to disequilibrium is subject to a signifcant variation across units of observation. Whereas evidence on the significance of region specific variables as explanatory factors is weak, labor market institutions, especially regulations that affect the determination of wages, explain an important fraction of the disparities. -- |
| Keywords: | Regional labor markets,labor demand,institutions,Europe,error correction model |
| JEL: | C23 J23 R23 |
| Date: | 2011 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:hwwirp:112&r=ure |
| By: | J. Ignacio García-Pérez (Department of Economics, Universidad Pablo de Olavide); Marisa Hidalgo-Hidalgo (Department of Economics, Universidad Pablo de Olavide); J. Antonio Robles-Zurita (Department of Economics, Universidad Pablo de Olavide) |
| Abstract: | Grade retention practices are at the forefront of the educational debate. In this paper, we use PISA 2009 data for Spain to measure the effect of grade retention on students’ achievement. One important problem when analyzing this question is that school outcomes and the propensity to repeat a grade are likely to be determined simultaneously. We address this problem by estimating a Switching Regression Model. We find that grade retention has a negative impact on educational outcomes, but we confirm the importance of endogenous selection, which makes observed differences between repeaters and non-repeaters appear 14.6% lower than they actually are. The effect on PISA scores of repeating is much smaller (-10% of non-repeaters’ average) than the counterfactual reduction that non-repeaters would suffer had they been retained as repeaters (-24% of their average). Furthermore, those who repeated a grade during primary education suffered more than those who repeated a grade of secondary school, although the effect of repeating at both times is, as expected, much larger. |
| Keywords: | Grade retention, educational scores, PISA |
| JEL: | D63 I28 J24 |
| Date: | 2011–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pab:wpaper:1109&r=ure |
| By: | Carlo Gianelle |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how employment intermediaries affected the inter-firm network of worker mobility in an region of Italy in response of the reform that first allowed for temporary employment agencies in 1997. We map worker reallocations from a matched employer-employee dataset onto a directed graph, where vertices indicate firms, and links denote transfers of workers between firms. Using network-based methodologies we find that temporary employment agencies significantly increase network integration and practicability, while fastly increasing control over hiring channels. The policy implications of the results are discussed, highlighting the potential of network analysis as monitoring tool for regional and local labour markets. |
| Keywords: | Inter-firm networks, labour mobility, temporary employment agencies |
| JEL: | D85 C46 J63 |
| Date: | 2011–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:usi:wpaper:618&r=ure |
| By: | Emanuela Ciapanna (Banca d'Italia); Concetta Rondinelli (Banca d'Italia) |
| Abstract: | We conduct a regional analysis of the relationship between market concentration and price dynamics in the grocery retail sector, focusing on a sample of five categories of goods belonging to the 12 COICOP aggregation and on a panel of countries that includes Germany, Spain, Finland, Italy, Austria and Portugal. Using a unique census-type dataset on retailers, we construct Herfindahl-Hirschman indices of concentration at the buying group, parent company and individual shop level for a sample of 118,540 large grocery stores and we study the association between these measures and regional price changes. Our results point to a positive association between retail market concentration and price growth in food and beverages, alcohol and tobacco and miscellaneous goods in the time span 2003-2010 at the buying, parental group and store level for the pooled sample of countries. The relation reverses sign for clothing and footwear and household equipment. This evidence is robust to different specifications of concentration indices. |
| Keywords: | Market concentration, price dynamics, buying group, parent company, regional Herfindahl-Hirschman indices. |
| JEL: | L1 L4 L8 E31 |
| Date: | 2011–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_107_11&r=ure |
| By: | Kweka, Josaphat; Fox, Louise |
| Abstract: | The household enterprise sector has a significant role in the Tanzanian economy. It employs a larger share of the urban labor force than wage employment, and is increasingly seen as an alternative to agriculture as a source of additional income for rural and urban households. The sector is uniquely placed within the informal sector, where it represents both conditions of informal employment and informal enterprise. This paper presents a case study on Tanzania using a mixed approach by combining both quantitative and qualitative analysis to examine the important role of household enterprises in the labor force of Tanzania, and to identify key factors that influence their productivity. Household enterprise owners are similar to typical labor force participants although primary education appears to be the minimum qualification for household enterprise operators to be successful. Access to location matters -- good, secure location in a marketplace or industrial cluster raises earnings - and access to transport and electricity is found to have a significant effect on earnings as well. In large urban areas, the biggest constraint faced by household enterprises is the lack of access to secure workspace to run the small business. Although lack of credit is a problem across all enterprises in Tanzania, household enterprises are more vulnerable because they are largely left out of the financial sector either as savers or borrowers. Although HEs are part of the livelihood strategies of over half of households in Tanzania, they are ignored in the current development policy frameworks, which emphasize formalization, not productivity. Tanzania has a large number of programs and projects for informal enterprises, but there is no set of policies and program interventions targeted at the household enterprise sector. This gap exacerbates the vulnerability of household enterprises, and reduces their productivity. |
| Keywords: | Access to Finance,Banks&Banking Reform,Labor Markets,Population Policies,Debt Markets |
| Date: | 2011–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:5882&r=ure |
| By: | Jean Bonnet, University of Caen Basse-Normandie - CREM-CNRS, France; Sylvie Cieply, University of Caen Basse-Normandie - CREM-CNRS, France; Marcus Dejardin, FUNDP - University of Namur, CERPE, Belgium. |
| Abstract: | This article investigates the interrelationships between finance and entrepreneurship by exploring regional discrepancies in France. The focus is (1) on regional differences in financial relationships, (2) on the way these relations influence financial constraints on new firms and (3) on the complementary/substitutable effects between funds. No path of exclusion is identified. Rather, firms that are self-constraining or suffer from a weak credit rationing are the ones that later on develop intensive relationships with banks. Substitution exists in almost all the French regions. Results suggest the departure point of an original pecking order theory according to the entrepreneurial intensity of regions. |
| Keywords: | financial constraints, credit rationing, financial relationships, new firms, regional development, regional disparities |
| JEL: | G20 M13 R10 |
| Date: | 2011–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tut:cremwp:201127&r=ure |
| By: | Cassette, Aurélie; Farvaque, Etienne; Héricourt, Jérôme |
| Abstract: | Using a new database of French municipalities that covers 821 towns and 2 elections (2001 and 2008), we examine how the budget structure, degree of electoral competition and the economic context affect the share of votes for the incumbent. We assess the specicities created by the two-round process under French electoral rule (a dual ballot under plurality rule). We show that in the first round of the electoral process, spending on equipment can influence the voter, and that electoral competition has a strong impact on the incumbent's score. In the second round, the incumbent's vote is affected more by national considerations and local budget variables have no effect. We show that the dynamics between the first and the second rounds are intense. The results suggest that the determinants of each round in a two-round electoral process are different. |
| Keywords: | Economic voting; Local elections; Plurality rule; Visible expenditures |
| JEL: | H72 D72 H76 |
| Date: | 2011–11–09 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:34675&r=ure |
| By: | Jonsson, Lina (VTI) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the relationship between train traffic and the accident risk for road users at level crossings. The marginal effect of train traffic on the accident risk can be used to derive the marginal cost per train passage that is due to level crossing accidents. Based on Swedish data from 2000 to 2008 on level crossing accidents, train volume and crossing characteristics, the marginal cost per train passage is estimated at SEK 1.13 (EUR 0.11) on average in 2008. The cost per train passage varies substantially depending on type of warning device, road type and the traffic volume of the trains. |
| Keywords: | Railway; Marginal Cost Estimation; Level Crossing Accidents |
| JEL: | D62 H23 R41 |
| Date: | 2011–11–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ctswps:2011_015&r=ure |
| By: | Andersson, Lina (Linnaeus University); Hammarstedt, Mats (Linnaeus University); Hussain, Shakir (University of Birmingham); Shukur, Ghazi (Jönköping International Business School & Linnaeus University) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the importance of ethnic origin and local labour markets conditions for self-employment propensities in Sweden. In line with previous research we find differences in the self-employment rate between different immigrant groups as well as between different immigrant cohorts. We use a multilevel regression approach in order to quantify the role of ethnic background, point of time for immigration and local market conditions in order to further understand differences in self-employment rates between different ethnic groups. We arrive at the following: The self-employment decision is to a major extent guided by factors unobservable in register data. Such factors might be i.e. individual entrepreneurial ability and access to financial capital. The individual’s ethnic background and point of time for immigration play a smaller role for the self-employment decision but are more important than local labour market conditions. |
| Keywords: | Self-employment; immigrant background; local labour market |
| JEL: | J15 R23 |
| Date: | 2011–11–11 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cesisp:0261&r=ure |
| By: | Krug, Gerhard (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]); Rebien, Martina (Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany]) |
| Abstract: | "Using a search theoretical model, we analyse the effects of the information flow via social networks (friends, relatives and other personal contacts) by comparing monetary and non-monetary outcomes in obtaining jobs via networks versus formal methods. Propensity-score matching on survey data from the low-skilled unemployed is used to identify causal effects. The analysis takes into account unobserved heterogeneity by applying Rosenbaum bounds. Because of the potential ambiguity when comparing outcomes in accepted jobs, we also examine the effectiveness of job searches using social networks as a source of information compared to not using networks. We find no evidence for causal effects on monetary outcomes and, at best, only weak evidence for effects on non-monetary job outcomes." (Author's abstract, IAB-Doku) ((en)) |
| Keywords: | Arbeitsuche, soziales Netzwerk, Niedrigqualifizierte, Arbeitslose, Langzeitarbeitslose, Arbeitsplatzsuchtheorie |
| JEL: | J64 J31 |
| Date: | 2011–11–16 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iab:iabdpa:201123&r=ure |
| By: | Catherine Tucker (MIT Marketing) |
| Abstract: | Many video ads are designed to go viral, so that the total number of views they receive depends on customers sharing the ads with their friends. This paper explores the relationship between achieving this endogenous reach and the effectiveness of the ad at persuading a consumer to purchase or adopt a favorable attitude towards a product. The analysis combines data on the real-life virality of 400 video ads, and crowd-sourced measurement of advertising effectiveness among 24,000 consumers. We measure effectiveness by randomly exposing half of these consumers to a video ad and half to a similar placebo video ad, and then surveying their attitudes towards the focal product. Relative ad persuasiveness drops on average by 10\% for every one million views the ad had received. Taking into account the advantages of increased reach, this means that there was a decline in overall advertising effectiveness at 3-4 million views. Importantly, ads that generated both views \emph{and} online engagement in the form of comments did not suffer from the same negative relationship. We show that such ads retained their efficacy because they achieved virality due to humor or visual appeal rather than because they were provocative or outrageous. |
| Keywords: | Social Networks, Video, Online Advertising |
| JEL: | M37 |
| Date: | 2011–10 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:net:wpaper:1106&r=ure |