nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2007‒03‒03
sixteen papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. The effect of location on finding a job in the Paris region By GOBILLON Laurent; MAGNAC Thierry; SELOD Harris
  2. Fat City: The relationship between urban sprawl and obesity By Jean Eid; Henry G. Overman; Diego Puga; Matthew A. Turner
  3. The Effect of the Theo van Gogh Murder on House Prices in Amsterdam By Pieter A. Gautier; Arjen Siegmann; Aico van Vuuren
  4. Decomposing the growth in residential land in the United States By Henry G. Overman; Diego Puga; Matthew A. Turner
  5. Spatial Mobility and Returns to Education:<br />Some Evidence from a Sample of French Youth By Philippe Lemistre; Nicolas Moreau
  6. Stress Testing Housing Loan Portfolios: A Regulatory Case Study By Neil Esho; Anthony Coleman; Ilanko Sellathurai; Niruba Thavabalan
  7. Building Criminal Capital behind Bars: Peer Effects in Juvenile Corrections By Patrick Bayer; Randi Hjalmarsson; David Pozen
  8. Modelling the Joint Access Mode and Railway Station Choice By Ghebreegziabiher Debrezion; Eric Pels; Piet Rietveld
  9. Modeling Industrial Evolution in Geographical Space By Giulio Bottazzi; Giovanni Dosi; Giorgio Fagiolo; Angelo Secchi
  10. Defining and detecting predatory lending By Donald P. Morgan
  11. Asthma Management Survey of Participants in an Inner City Asthma Intervention By Matthew Sadof; Sylvia Brandt
  12. Domestic Market-based Industrial Cluster Development in Modern China By Ding, Ke
  13. Risk Overhang, Risk Tolerance, and Profitability in Sectoral Lending of Australian Thrift Institutions By Neil Esho; Ian Sharpe; Niruba Thavabalan
  14. Entry into Local Retail Food Markets in Sweden: A Real-Options Approach By Daunfeldt, Sven-Olov; Orth, Matilda; Rudholm, Niklas
  15. Social Network Capital, Economic Mobility and Poverty Traps By Chantarat, Sommarat; Barrett, Christopher B.
  16. Poverty and the City By Alejandro Grinspun

  1. By: GOBILLON Laurent; MAGNAC Thierry; SELOD Harris
    Abstract: There are large spatial disparities in unemployment durations across the 1,300 France). In order to characterize these imbalances, we estimate a proportional on an exhaustive dataset of all unemployment spells starting in the first recover a survival function for each municipality that is purged of individual only 30% of the disparities in the survival rates relate to observed individual disparities are captured by local indicators, mainly segregation indices.
    Keywords: residential segregation, spatial mismatch, urban unemployment, duration model
    JEL: C41 J64 R23
    Date: 2007–02
  2. By: Jean Eid (University of Toronto); Henry G. Overman (London School of Economics); Diego Puga (Universitat Pompeu Fabra and IMDEA); Matthew A. Turner (University of Toronto)
    Abstract: We study the relationship between urban sprawl and obesity. Using data that tracks individuals over time, we find no evidence that urban sprawl causes obesity. We show that previous findings of a positive relationship most likely reflect a failure to properly control for the fact the individuals who are more likely to be obese choose to live in more sprawling neighborhoods. Our results indicate that current interest in changing the built environment to counter the rise in obesity is misguided.
    Keywords: urban sprawl; obesity; selection effects
    JEL: I12 R14
    Date: 2007–02–19
  3. By: Pieter A. Gautier (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Arjen Siegmann (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Aico van Vuuren (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
    Abstract: This paper estimates the impact of the murder of film maker Theo van Gogh on November 2, 2004, on listed house prices in Amsterdam with a unique dataset. We use an hedonic-market approach to show that general attitudes towards Muslim minorities were negatively affected by the murder. Specifically, we test for an effect on listed house prices in neighborhoods where more than 25% of the people belong to an ethnic minority from a Muslim country (type I). Relative to the other neighborhoods, house prices in type I neighborhoods decreased by on average 3%, with a widening gap over time. The results are robust to several adjustments including changes in the control group. There is no significant difference in the time it takes for houses to be sold in type I versus other neighborhoods. Finally, people belonging to the Muslim minority were more likely to buy and less likely to sell a house in a type I neighborhood after the murder than before
    Keywords: Differences-in-differences; Terror; housing market
    JEL: C31 C41 R21 R23 R31
    Date: 2007–01–26
  4. By: Henry G. Overman (London School of Economics); Diego Puga (Universitat Pompeu Fabra and IMDEA); Matthew A. Turner (University of Toronto)
    Abstract: This paper decomposes the growth in land occupied by residences in the United States to give the relative contributions of changing demographics versus increases in the land area used by individual households. Between 1976 and 1992 the amount of residential land in the United States grew 47.5% while population only grew 17.8%. At first glance, this suggest an important role for per-household increases. However, the calculations in this paper show that only 24.3% of the growth in residential land area can be attributed to State-level changes in land per household. 37.5% is due to overall population growth, 5.9% to the shift of population towards States with larger houses, 22.7% to an increase in the number of households over this period, and the remaining 9.5% to interactions between these changes. There are large differences across states and metropolitan areas in the relative importance of these components.
    Keywords: land use; population growth
    JEL: R14 O51
    Date: 2007–02–19
  5. By: Philippe Lemistre (LIRHE - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire de recherche sur les Ressources Humaines et l'Emploi - [CNRS : UMR5066] - [Université des Sciences Sociales - Toulouse I]); Nicolas Moreau (LIRHE - Laboratoire Interdisciplinaire de recherche sur les Ressources Humaines et l'Emploi - [CNRS : UMR5066] - [Université des Sciences Sociales - Toulouse I])
    Abstract: The purpose of this article is to reevaluate the returns to geographic mobility and to the level<br />of education, taking into account the interaction between these two variables. We have at our<br />disposal an original French database that permits precise calculation of the distance between<br />the place of education and the location of first employment. We thus capture mobility without<br />a priori regarding the geographical areas selected, and we use kilometric thresholds to<br />estimate the returns to spatial mobility. Our results suggest decreasing returns to spatial<br />mobility as the distance covered rises and increasing returns to mobility with higher levels of<br />education. In addition, for all levels of education, including the lowest, returns to geographic<br />mobility prove to be positive, for one threshold at least and several distances.
    Keywords: spatial mobility; returns to schooling; earnings function
    Date: 2007–02–19
  6. By: Neil Esho; Anthony Coleman; Ilanko Sellathurai; Niruba Thavabalan (Australian Prudential Regulation Authority)
    Abstract: Against the backdrop of sharply rising house prices and Central Bank warnings that housing credit growth was not sustainable, the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA) conducted a ‘stress test’ to gauge the resilience of 120 Australian banks, building societies and credit unions to a substantial correction in the housing market. The stress test scenario mapped a 30 per cent fall in house prices to a substantial increase in default and loss rates. The results showed that all 120 institutions would remain solvent under the imposed conditions, however 11 institutions’ capital ratios fell below their regulatory minima. This paper details the stress testing methodology and traces through the various stages of the project, from background research, to stress test design, implementation, supervisory follow-up, public dissemination of the results and resulting policy changes.<p>
    Date: 2005–09–09
  7. By: Patrick Bayer; Randi Hjalmarsson; David Pozen
    Abstract: This paper analyzes the influence that juvenile offenders serving time in the same correctional facility have on each other's subsequent criminal behavior. The analysis is based on data on over 8,000 individuals serving time in 169 juvenile correctional facilities during a two-year period in Florida. These data provide a complete record of past crimes, facility assignments, and arrests and adjudications in the year following release for each individual. To control for the non-random assignment to facilities, we include facility and facility-by-prior offense fixed effects, thereby estimating peer effects using only within-facility variation over time. We find strong evidence of peer effects for burglary, petty larceny, felony and misdemeanor drug offenses, aggravated assault, and felony sex offenses; the influence of peers primarily affects individuals who already have some experience in a particular crime category. We also find evidence that peer effects are stronger in smaller facilities and that the predominant types of peer effects differ in residential versus non-residential facilities; effects in the latter are consistent with network formation among youth serving time close to home.
    JEL: H0 H23 J0 J24 K0
    Date: 2007–02
  8. By: Ghebreegziabiher Debrezion (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Eric Pels (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Piet Rietveld (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
    Abstract: This study models the choices of Dutch railway users (aggregated at the 4 digit post code area) for access mode and departure railway stations. For each post code area a set of four access modes: car, public transport, bicycle and walking and a set three departure railway stations are identified. A nested logit model is estimated based on 1440 post code areas using a number of access and rail station features. The access features include distance to the departure station, car ownership level, public transport frequency and travel time by public transport to the departure stations. The station features used in the estimation include rail service quality index and supplementary facilities such as availability of parking space and bicycle standing place. Distance has a negative effect on the utility of departure stations. A steeper effect is observed on the choice of departure stations accessed by the non-motorized modes of walking and bicycle. Availability of parking places and bicycle standing areas have a positive effect on the choice of departure railway stations accessed by car and bicycle respectively. Public transport frequency has a positive whereas public transport travel time has a negative effect on the choice of departure stations accessed by public transport. The rail service quality index of a station has a significant and positive effect on the choice of departure stations accessed by all modes.
    Keywords: departure railway station choice; access mode choice; nested logit model
    JEL: R2 R4
    Date: 2007–01–26
  9. By: Giulio Bottazzi; Giovanni Dosi; Giorgio Fagiolo; Angelo Secchi
    Abstract: In this paper we study a class of evolutionary models of industrial agglomeration with local positive feedbacks, which allow for a wide set of empirically-testable implications. Their roots rest in the Generalized Polya Urn framework. Here, however, we build on a birth-death process over a finite number of locations and a finite population of firms. The process of selection among production sites that are heterogeneous in their ?intrinsic attractiveness? occurs under a regime of dynamic increasing returns depending on the number of firms already present in each location. The general model is presented together with a few examples of small economies which help to illustrate the properties of the model and characterize its asymptotic behavior. Finally, we discuss a number of empirical applications of our theoretical framework. The basic model, once taken to the data, is able to empirically disentangle the relative strength of technologically-specific agglomeration drivers (affecting differently firms belonging to different industrial sectors in each location) from site-specific geographical forces (horizontally acting upon all sectors in each location).
    Keywords: Industrial Location, Agglomeration, Dynamic Increasing Returns, Markov Chains, Polya Urns.
    Date: 2007–03–01
  10. By: Donald P. Morgan
    Abstract: We define predatory lending as a welfare-reducing provision of credit. Using a textbook model, we show that lenders profit if they can tempt households into "debt traps," that is, overborrowing and delinquency. We then test whether payday lending fits our definition of predatory. We find that in states with higher payday loan limits, less educated households and households with uncertain income are less likely to be denied credit, but are not more likely to miss a debt payment. Absent higher delinquency, the extra credit from payday lenders does not fit our definition of predatory. Nevertheless, it is expensive. On that point, we find somewhat lower payday prices in cities with more payday stores per capita, consistent with the hypothesis that competition limits payday loan prices.
    Keywords: Predatory lending ; Loans, Personal
    Date: 2007
  11. By: Matthew Sadof (Tufts University School of Medicine, Baystate Children’s Hospital); Sylvia Brandt (Department of Resource Economics, University of Massachusetts Amherst)
    Abstract: Background: The Inner City Asthma Intervention (ICAI) was a national multi-center implementation of an evidence-based intervention to reduce asthma morbidity. Objective: This study describes mitigating behaviors and reported outcomes in families with asthma who completed the intervention and a post-intervention survey at one of the ICAI sites. Results: Eighty percent (0.72- 0.88, 95% confidence interval) of these families made five or more changes to mitigate exposure to environmental asthma triggers. The majority of families (0.84-0.96, 95% confidence interval) reported an improved awareness of asthma symptoms and less school absences, limitations of activity, unplanned doctor visits, and asthma related sleep disruption.
    Keywords: Asthma, health intervention, health behavior
    JEL: I12 I18 Z13
    Date: 2007–02
  12. By: Ding, Ke
    Abstract: China’s huge domestic market is constantly expanding, and is low-end demand oriented and highly dispersed. The domestic market-based development of China’s industrial cluster, however, is not only a quantitative expansion, but has also been accompanied with remarkable qualitative upgrading. Specialized markets are a microcosm that clearly indicate this paradoxical phenomenon. By analyzing three typical cases of industrial clusters that have specialized markets, this paper will make the case that under modern China’s market conditions, the local public sector is the crucial driving force for upgrading industrial clusters, which organize complicated transactions, promote quality control, and stimulate the division of labor.
    Keywords: China, Industrial cluster, Market condition, Specialized market, Local public sector, Industrial estates, Local industy, Market, Public sector
    JEL: L1 L5 L6 O1
    Date: 2007–02
  13. By: Neil Esho; Ian Sharpe; Niruba Thavabalan (Australian Prudential Regulation Authority)
    Abstract: We estimate a dynamic panel portfolio choice model of the supply of new lending of Australian thrifts (credit unions and building societies, dented CUBS) where new residential, personal and commercial lending is influenced by risk overhang, risk tolerance, and profitability of alternative types of lending. Our results are consistent with the risk overhang model, with evidence of significant same-sector and cross-sector risk overhang effects on CUBS new lending. CUBS also allocate funds towards more profitable loan sectors and increase the proportion of assets held as loans when they become more risk tolerant. Adjustment to long-run equilibrium is generally rapid with much of the adjustment complete in four quarters.<p>
    Date: 2006–09–29
  14. By: Daunfeldt, Sven-Olov (The Swedish Retail Institute (HUI)); Orth, Matilda (School of Economics and Commercial law, Gothenburg University); Rudholm, Niklas (The Swedish Retail Institute (HUI))
    Abstract: A real-options approach was used, incorporating uncertainty and irreversibility of investments, to study the number of stores entering the Swedish retail food market during the period 1994-2002. It was found that uncertainty affected the entry-decision. Entry was less frequent in highly concentrated local retail food-markets characterized by a high degree of uncertainty, whereas higher profit opportunities seem to have increased the probability of entry.
    Keywords: Real options; uncertainty; retail food; entry; negative binomial regression
    JEL: L13 L81
    Date: 2007–02–22
  15. By: Chantarat, Sommarat; Barrett, Christopher B.
    Abstract: The paper explores the role social network capital might play in facilitating poor agents’ escape from poverty traps. We model endogenous network formation among households heterogeneously endowed with both traditional and social network capital who make investment and technology choices over time in the absence of financial markets and faced with multiple production technologies featuring different fixed costs and returns. We show that social network capital can serve as either a complement to or a substitute for productive assets in facilitating some poor households’ escape from poverty. However, the voluntary nature of costly social network formation also creates both involuntary and voluntary exclusionary mechanisms that impede some poor households’ efforts to exit poverty. The ameliorative potential of social networks therefore depends fundamentally on the underlying wealth distribution in the economy. In some settings, targeted public transfers to the poor can crowd-in private resources by inducing new social links that the poor can exploit to escape from poverty.
    Keywords: social network capital; endogenous network formation; poverty traps; multiple equilibria; social isolation; social exclusion; crowding-in transfer
    JEL: I32 Z13 O12 D85
    Date: 2007–02–14
  16. By: Alejandro Grinspun (International Poverty Centre)
    Keywords: Poverty, City, Rocinha, Gavea
    JEL: B41 D11 D12 E31 I32 O54
    Date: 2005–08

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