nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2006‒09‒30
24 papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Long term evolution of the size distribution of Portuguese cities By Ana Paula Delgado; Isabel Maria Godinho
  2. Behaviors and housing inertia are key factors in determining the consequences of a shock in transportation costs By François Gusdorf; Stéphane Hallegatte
  3. How does the down-payment constraint affect the UK housing market? By Andrew Benito
  4. Location, Location, Location! A Classroom Demonstration of the Hotelling Model By Lisa R. Anderson; Jessica Holmes; Mark Jeffreys; Dan Lass; Jack Soper
  5. Housing Satisfaction, Homeownership and Housing Mobility: A Panel Data Analysis for Twelve EU Countries By Luis Diaz-Serrano
  6. The Impact on Rent from Tenant and Landlord Characteristics and Interaction By Erling Røed Larsen and Dag Einar Sommervoll
  7. The Result of 11 Plus Selection: An Investigation into Opportunities and Outcomes for Pupils in Selective LEAs By Adele Atkinson; Paul Gregg; Brendon McConnell
  8. Endogenous Skill Bias in Technology Adoption: City-Level Evidence from the IT Revolution By Paul Beaudry; Mark Doms; Ethan Lewis
  9. Consumption, house prices and expectations By Orazio Attanasio; Laura Blow; Robert Hamilton; Andrew Leicester
  10. The Regional Dimension of Knowledge Transfers - A Behavioral Approach By Tom Brökel; Martin Binder
  11. Property taxation as incentive for cost control:Empirical evidence for utility services in Norway By Lars-Erik Borge; Jørn Rattsø
  12. Governing and Governance: A Social Housing Case Study By Dave Cowan; Morag McDermont; Jessica Prendergrast
  13. Consumption excess sensitivity, liquidity constraints and the collateral role of housing By Andrew Benito; Haroon Mumtaz
  14. Investing in Real Estate: Mortgage Financing Practices and Optimal Holding Period By Winston T.H. Koh; Edward H.K. Ng
  15. Do Migrants Follow Market Potentials? An Estimation of a New Economic Geography Model By Matthieu Crozet
  16. Giving children a better start: preschool attendance and school-age profiles By Samuel Berlinski; Sebastian Galiani; Marco Manacorda
  17. Identification of Peer Effects Using Group Size Variation By Laurent Davezies; Xavier d’Haultfoeuille; Denis Fougère
  18. Equità e criteri di selettività dei beneficiari di edilizia residenziale pubblica in Emilia-Romagna By Tondani, Davide
  19. Dynamics in Immigration Community By Sergio Vergalli
  20. PRODUCT INNOVATION, EXPORT AND LOCATION OF ENTREPRENEURSHIP By Andersson, Martin; Johansson, Börje
  21. When is mortgage indebtedness a financial burden to British households? A dynamic probit approach By Orla May; Merxe Tudela
  22. The determinants of household debt and balance sheets in the United Kingdom By Merxe Tudela; Garry Young
  23. 'Real-world' mortgages, consumption volatility and the low inflation environment By Sebastian Barnes; Gregory Thwaites
  24. Wages, benefits, hours, commuting time, and license renewal for Iowa Registered Nurses By Imerman, Mark D.; Orazem, Peter; Sikdar, Shiva; Russell, Gina

  1. By: Ana Paula Delgado (CEDRES, Faculdade de Economia do Porto, Universidade do Porto); Isabel Maria Godinho (CEDRES, Faculdade de Economia do Porto, Universidade do Porto)
    Abstract: In this paper we study the evolution of the Portuguese urban system from 1864 to 2001. We apply the rank-size model and use rank-size estimates to describe the evolution of city-size hierarchy. NonParetian behavior of the distribution is examined by adding a quadratic term to the basic equation of the model. Our results enhance two different processes in the evolution of urban system: until the middle of the twentieth century urban growth was accompanied by population concentration in the largest cities; afterwards growth benefits middle size cities, reinforced in the last decades by heavy population losses in the two largest cities. From the association between the characteristics and evolving pattern of city size distribution and the spatial pattern of urban growth, it appears that the nonParetian behavior of city size distribution in the last decades can be linked to the particular growth process of cities located in the proximity of the central cities of the two metropolitan areas of mainland Portugal. In order to obtain a better understanding of the dynamics of the Portuguese urban system we examine the movements in the ranking of cities, through a Markov chain process. We also analyse the existence of spatial correlation in the process of urban hierarchy restructuring.
    Keywords: Urban hierarchy, rank-size distribution, urban growth, Markov processes
    JEL: O18 R11 R12
    Date: 2006–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:por:fepwps:230&r=ure
  2. By: François Gusdorf (CIRED - Centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - [CIRAD : UMR56][CNRS : UMR8568] - [Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales][Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées][Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et des Forêts]); Stéphane Hallegatte (CIRED - Centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement - [CIRAD : UMR56][CNRS : UMR8568] - [Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales][Ecole Nationale des Ponts et Chaussées][Ecole Nationale du Génie Rural des Eaux et des Forêts])
    Abstract: This paper investigates the consequences of a sudden increase in transportation costs when households behaviors and buildings inertia are accounted for. A theoretical framework is proposed, capturing the interactions between behaviors, transportation costs and urban structure. It is found that changes in households consumption and housing choices reduce significantly the long-term adverse effects of a shock in transportation costs. Indeed, the shock translates, over the long-run, into a more concentrated housing that limits households utility losses and maintains landowners' income. But, because of buildings inertia, the shock leads first to a long transition, during which the adjustment is constrained by a suboptimal housing-supply structure. Then, households support larger losses than in the final stage, though lower than with no adjustment at all, and landowners experience a large decrease in their aggregate income and an important redistribution of wealth. Negative transitional effects grow as the shock becomes larger. Thus, behaviors and buildings inertia are key factors in determining the vulnerability to transportation price variability and to the introduction of climate policies. Our policy conclusions are that: (i) if a long-term increase in transportation costs is unavoidable because of climate change or resource scarcity, a smooth change, starting as early as possible, must be favored; and (ii) fast-growing cities of the developing world can reduce their future vulnerability to shocks in transportation costs through the implementation of policies that limit urban sprawl.
    Keywords: City, Housing, Transportation
    Date: 2006–09–20
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00096936_v2&r=ure
  3. By: Andrew Benito
    Abstract: A house purchase typically requires a deposit (or down-payment) and so a significant amount of cash. This paper considers the empirical implications of this borrowing constraint for the housing market. It shows that, at the aggregate level, models of the housing market that incorporate the constraint are consistent with the following stylised facts: i) a positive correlation between house price inflation and transactions; ii) greater volatility of former owner-occupiers' house price inflation than for first-time buyers; iii) the presence of first-time buyers in the market falls with the rate of change of house prices; and iv) house prices are more sensitive to the incomes of the young. The paper then exploits variation across local housing markets in the rate of change in house prices and considers how leverage affects the response of the rate of change of house prices to shocks. The evidence, based on data for 147 district-level housing markets for the period 1993-2002, suggests that a large incidence of households with high levels of leverage (loan to value ratios) raises the sensitivity of house prices to a shock. This is also consistent with the down-payment constraint model of the housing market.
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:294&r=ure
  4. By: Lisa R. Anderson (Department of Economics, College of William and Mary); Jessica Holmes (Department of Economics, Middlebury College); Mark Jeffreys (Behavioral Science Department and Integrated Studies Department, Utah Valley State College); Dan Lass (Department of Resource Economics, University of Massachusetts); Jack Soper (Department of Economics and Finance, John Carroll University)
    Abstract: Why are car dealerships concentrated in the same location? Why do "diamond districts" and "garment districts" emerge in large cities? This commonly observed clustering of competitors is a source of intrigue for many undergraduates; their intuition tells them that firms should locate away from close rivals in order to avoid competing for the same customers. This paper outlines a classroom experiment that complements the standard theoretical discussion of Hotelling's (1929) spatial competition model and provides students with a deeper understanding of the intuition behind competitive clustering. The experiment places the student in the role of the street vendor who must choose his or her optimal location in a "linear city." Like Hotelling's vendors, each student chooses the most profitable location for his or her cart, taking into account the locations of competitors and the transportation costs and distribution of potential customers. Students are also faced with the two-stage decision that introduces a Hotelling location-price model. The experiment can be implemented in any size class, with very little preparation. It is well-suited for courses in microeconomics, industrial organization, game theory, experimental economics, public choice, and urban economics and can also be incorporated into management, geography and political science courses.
    Keywords: classroom experiment, location choice
    JEL: A22 C22 C90 D21 L10
    Date: 2006–09–18
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwm:wpaper:44&r=ure
  5. By: Luis Diaz-Serrano (Universitat Rovira i Virgili and IZA Bonn)
    Abstract: We investigate the determinants of housing satisfaction in twelve EU countries. To do so, we use panel data covering the period 1994-2001, which allows us to control for individual heterogeneity. We carry out separate estimates on the determinants of housing satisfaction for homeowners and for renters and observe that: i) the tenure status is critical in determining the level of housing satisfaction; ii) housing satisfaction acts as trigger event of housing mobility, and; iii) dissatisfied renters are more likely to move than their homeowners counterparts. Our results also allow us to conclude that self-reported housing satisfaction is a meaningful variable able to explain individual’s objective economic behavior, since it is able to anticipate movements in the households’ demand for housing.
    Keywords: housing satisfaction, random-effects, fixed-effects, housing mobility, homeownership
    JEL: D1 R0 J0
    Date: 2006–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2318&r=ure
  6. By: Erling Røed Larsen and Dag Einar Sommervoll (Statistics Norway)
    Abstract: Owner-occupied housing services and rented housing services are often considered close substitutes, and both house price and rental price indices rely on regressions based on dwelling and location characteristics. However, while such characteristics are exhaustive in the owner's market, they cannot capture the additional complexity of rental markets. This paper offers a theoretical framework and an empirical analysis of additional factors that affect rent. The factors comprise three categories: Landlord characteristics, tenant characteristics, and characteristics of the landlord-tenant interaction. We analyze a novel data set sampled from the Norwegian rental market and obtain substantial improvements in explanatory power by including information on tenant and landlord characteristics and interaction. While variation in geographical variables explains 17 percent of the variation in monthly rent; variation in hedonic variables explain only 12 percent. Variation in tenant and landlord characteristics and interaction explains as much as 15 percent of rent variation. The full model captures 44 percent of rent variation and offers insights into the monetary values of landlord type, market mediation, tenure length, tenant type, and services. This additional explanatory power accentuates the difference between the owner's and renter's market, and the results come with ramifications for the general understanding of the rental market, for construction of rental indices, and for the assumption of a rental-equivalence principle in CPI-construction.
    Keywords: hedonic regression; housing market; landlord; rent; rental index; rental market; tenant.
    JEL: C21 D12 R21
    Date: 2006–08
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ssb:dispap:467&r=ure
  7. By: Adele Atkinson; Paul Gregg; Brendon McConnell
    Abstract: This paper assesses the impact of academic selection at age 11 on children in the minority of areas that still operate such a system. The answers are very clear. Overall there is little or no impact on attainment, but those educated in grammar schools do substantially better (around four grade points more than pupils with the same Key Stage 2 (KS2) points in similar, but non-selective, areas). This is equivalent to raising four GCSEs from a grade ‘C’ to a ‘B’. Other children within selective areas who do not gain a place in a grammar school are disadvantaged by a little under one grade point. In part these effects stem from the substantive under representation of poorer and special needs children in grammar schools. Only 32% of high ability children eligible for free school meals (FSM) attend grammar schools compared with 60% of non-FSM pupils. So whilst the net effect of selection is not substantive it does result in gains for those attending the grammar schools and a slight disadvantage for the rest. The paradox is that grammar schools bestow greater advantages to poor children than more affluent children, but very few make the cut.
    Keywords: grammar schools, selective education
    JEL: I20
    Date: 2006–04
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:cmpowp:06/150&r=ure
  8. By: Paul Beaudry; Mark Doms; Ethan Lewis
    Abstract: This paper focuses on the bi-directional interaction between technology adoption and labor market conditions. We examine cross-city differences in PC-adoption, relative wages, and changes in relative wages over the period 1980-2000 to evaluate whether the patterns conform to the predictions of a neoclassical model of endogenous technology adoption. Our approach melds the literature on the effect of the relative supply of skilled labor on technology adoption to the often distinct literature on how technological change influences the relative demand for skilled labor. Our results support the idea that differences in technology use across cities and its effects on wages reflect an equilibrium response to local factor supply conditions. The model and data suggest that cities initially endowed with relatively abundant and cheap skilled labor adopted PCs more aggressively than cities with relatively expensive skilled labor, causing returns to skill to increase most in cities that adopted PCs most intensively. Our findings indicate that neo-classical models of endogenous technology adoption can be very useful for understanding where technological change arises and how it affects markets.
    JEL: E13 J31 O33
    Date: 2006–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12521&r=ure
  9. By: Orazio Attanasio; Laura Blow; Robert Hamilton; Andrew Leicester
    Abstract: Over much of the past 25 years, the cycles of house price and consumption growth have been closely synchronised. Three main hypotheses for this co-movement have been proposed in the literature. First, that an increase in house prices raises households' wealth, particularly for those in a position to trade down the housing ladder, which increases their desired level of expenditure. Second, that house price growth increases the collateral available to homeowners, reducing credit constraints and thereby facilitating higher consumption. And third, that house prices and consumption have tended to be influenced by common factors. This paper finds that the relationship between house prices and consumption is stronger for younger than older households, and that the consumption of homeowners and renters are equally aligned with the house price cycle. This suggests that neither the wealth nor the collateral channels have been the principal cause of the relationship between house prices and consumption - instead, the most important factor is likely to have been common causality.
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:271&r=ure
  10. By: Tom Brökel; Martin Binder
    Abstract: Innovations are inherently connected to knowledge transfers. The need of face-to-face contacts to transfer tacit knowledge is commonly argued to cause a regional dimension of innovative activities. The paper presents an alternative explanation based on a model of boundedly rational actors who search for knowledge. It is shown that a regional dimension exists in these processes that results from a regional bias in an actor’s search activities. Social embeddedness, a shared regional identity and limited spatial mobility foster this bias. We argue that insights from research on these topics can help to define the geographic size of a region.
    Keywords: Regional Economics, Innovation, Knowledge Transfers, Tacit Knowledge, Bounded Rationality Length 31 pages
    JEL: B52 D83 O31 R12
    Date: 2006–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:esi:evopap:2006-12&r=ure
  11. By: Lars-Erik Borge (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology); Jørn Rattsø (Department of Economics, Norwegian University of Science and Technology)
    Abstract: Recent theoretical research suggests that property taxation has incentive effects that can help control cost problems in the public sector. The institutional setting in Norway allows this first empirical investigation of the incentive effect of property taxation, since we can separate between local governments with and without property tax. The raw data of the variation in the unit cost level for utilities show that local governments with property tax have about 20% lower unit cost. Using both linear regression and propensity score matching, we are not able to wash out the difference in unit costs. Our interpretation is that having a visible and controversial local tax related to property stimulates voter interest in local government activities and thereby may help cost control. The incentive effect is of interest for the design of fiscal federalism.
    Keywords: Property tax; incentive effects; public sector costs; matching
    JEL: H71 H72
    Date: 2006–09–19
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nst:samfok:7606&r=ure
  12. By: Dave Cowan; Morag McDermont; Jessica Prendergrast
    Abstract: This research project concerns the role of members of governing boards of formerly public assets, where these assets are transferred to a private or quasi-public organisation. Members of these governing boards, although drawn from particular constituencies, are meant to be neutral and experts. We use a case study approach and a qualitative methodology. The case study concerns the governing board of a housing association, which was set up to take on the management of properties formerly managed by a local authority (referred to as a 'large-scale voluntary transfer'). The research notes tensions in the notion of neutrality and explores what counts as 'expertise'.
    Keywords: governance; neutral; expertise; housing; representatives; transfer
    JEL: K10
    Date: 2006–06
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:cmpowp:06/149&r=ure
  13. By: Andrew Benito; Haroon Mumtaz
    Abstract: Using a switching regression technique we provide unique evidence on three questions concerning the consumption behaviour of UK households. First, what percentage of households display excess sensitivity to income? Second, what affects the likelihood of being in that group? Third, is there a collateral channel from house prices to consumption? We find 20%-40% of households display excess sensitivity. These households may be liquidity constrained or saving for other precautionary reasons. This is found to be more likely for those without liquid assets, with negative home equity, the young, unmarried, non-white and the degree-educated. According to the 'collateral channel', house prices influence consumption by allowing households that would otherwise be liquidity constrained to borrow on more attractive terms. A key implication of that view is that capital gains on housing should influence the consumption of the liquidity constrained/precautionary saving households, but not other households. We test that implication for the first time and find direct evidence in support.
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:306&r=ure
  14. By: Winston T.H. Koh (School of Economics and Social Sciences, Singapore Management University); Edward H.K. Ng (National University of Singapore)
    Abstract: Real estate investments are typically characterized by high degrees of leverage and long loan tenures. In perfect capital markets, leverage has no impact on the investment decision apart from tax considerations. However, the mortgage financing market is imperfect in many countries. In the presence of market imperfections, an optimal holding period exists for real property investments. We provide a simple rule to calculate the optimal holding period is to compare the required rate of return with the leveraged rate of return on equity.
    Keywords: mortgage financing, real estate, financial leverage, optimal holding period
    JEL: G11
    Date: 2005–02
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:siu:wpaper:03-2005&r=ure
  15. By: Matthieu Crozet (TEAM - Théories et Applications en Microéconomie et Macroéconomie - [CNRS : UMR8059] - [Université Panthéon-Sorbonne - Paris I])
    Abstract: New Economic Geography models describe a cumulative process of spatial agglomeration: Firms tend to cluster in locations with good access to demand, and similarly, workers are drawn to regions where market potential is high because the price index is lower there. This paper provides an empirical assessment of this forward linkage that relates labour migrations to the geography of production through real wage differentials. In the spirit of Hanson (1998), we use bilateral migration data for five European countries over the 1980s and 1990s to perform quasi-structural estimations of a new economic geography model derived from Krugman (1991). The results show strong evidence in favor of this model. As expected, migrants do follow market potential. Moreover, we provide estimates for all key parameters of the model. These estimates suggest that a sudden emergence of a core-periphery pattern is unlikely within European countries: centripetal forces are too limited in geographical scope, and mobility costs are too high.
    Keywords: Agglomeration, economic geography, European regions, migration.
    Date: 2006–09–19
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:papers:halshs-00096277_v1&r=ure
  16. By: Samuel Berlinski (Institute for Fiscal Studies and University College, London); Sebastian Galiani; Marco Manacorda
    Abstract: We study the effect of pre-primary education on children's subsequent school outcomes by exploiting a unique feature of the Uruguayan household survey (ECH) that collects retrospective information on preschool attendance. A rapid expansion in the supply of pre-primary places over the last decade generates sufficient variation in the data to warrant identification. Using a within household estimator that only exploits differences in exposure across siblings, we find small gains from preschool attendance at early ages that magnify as children grow up. By age 16, children that attended preschool have accumulated more than 1 extra year of education and are 27 percentage points more likely to be in school compared to their siblings with no preschool education. We speculate that early grade repetition harms subsequent school progression and that pre-primary education appears as a successful policy option to prevent early grade failure and its long lasting consequences.
    Date: 2006–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ifs:ifsewp:06/18&r=ure
  17. By: Laurent Davezies (DEPP and CREST-INSEE); Xavier d’Haultfoeuille (ENSAE, CREST-INSEE and Université Paris I-Panthéon-Sorbonne); Denis Fougère (CNRS, CREST-INSEE, CEPR and IZA Bonn)
    Abstract: This paper considers the semiparametric identification of endogenous and exogenous peer effects based on group size variation. We show that Lee (2006)’s linear-in-means model is generically identified, even when all members of the group are not observed. While unnecessary in general, homoskedasticity may be required in special cases to recover all parameters. Extensions to asymmetric responses to peers and binary outcomes are also considered. Once more, most parameters are semiparametrically identified under weak conditions. However, recovering all of them requires more stringent assumptions. Eventually, we bring theoretical evidence that the model is more adapted to small groups.
    Keywords: social interactions, linear-in-means model, semiparametric identification
    JEL: C14 C21 C25
    Date: 2006–09
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp2324&r=ure
  18. By: Tondani, Davide
    Abstract: Housing public policies take the form of selective programs. Hence, accesso to the program and computation of the rents are regulated by a means test. Selectivity should be set ensuring the respect of vertical and horizontal equity trough the beneficiaries. This research analyses the system of selectivity of the beneficiaries of public houses in the region Emilia-Romagna, in order to verify the adequacy of the current rules in ensuring equity by the use of the italian means test. Empirical analysis has been carried out by using the database of beneficiaries of public houses of the Province of Parma. We find that the current rules are not able to ensure horizontal and vertical equity, therefore we propose and simulate a reform of the system of selectivity and computation of the rents.
    Keywords: horizontal and vertical equity; selectivity; means test
    JEL: H43 I38
    Date: 2006–09–20
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:27&r=ure
  19. By: Sergio Vergalli
    Abstract: In this paper, we present a theorethical model that tries to investigate the observable hysteresis process in the migration dynamic. In the model the migration choice depends not only on the wage differential, but also on a U-shaped benefit function of a community of homogenous ethnic individuals, modelled according to the "theory of clubs". The theoretical results, based on real option theory, explain that the observable "jumps" in the migration flows could depend on two variables: the number of coordinated immigrants and the dimension of the community. In fact, the migration choice is procrastinated until a critical mass is reached. More-over, some possible rigidities in the adjustment of the district dimension, as regards the optimal levels, can magnify the hysteresis process.
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ubs:wpaper:ubs0613&r=ure
  20. By: Andersson, Martin (CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies, Royal Institute of Technology); Johansson, Börje (CESIS - Centre of Excellence for Science and Innovation Studies, Royal Institute of Technology)
    Abstract: This paper introduces a model where new products are introduced by entrepreneurs or innovating firms in a quasi-temporal setting. Market conditions are characterized by monopolistic competition between varieties belonging to the same product group, where varieties can become obsolete over time and hence disappear from demand. Firms that innovate have to make an R&D investment, and a firm’s decision to export a variety to a given market is associated with a market channel investment. The model is used to predict export behavior by firms in different regional milieus, and these predictions are compared with observations from a rich data set describing export activities of Swedish firms. The data set contains firm level information about export flows, where the flow of each variety is associated with the exporting firm’s location, export value, price and destination. In the empirical analysis we examine how the arrival of innovation ideas varies across regions and how this variation depends on regional characteristics.
    Keywords: location; entrepreneurship; innovation; exports; diversity
    JEL: F12 O31 R11 R12
    Date: 2006–09–22
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cesisp:0075&r=ure
  21. By: Orla May; Merxe Tudela
    Abstract: Since the mid-1990s the volume of secured lending to households has expanded rapidly, both in absolute terms and in relation to household incomes. This paper examines the determinants of households' ability to service this stock of secured debt. It estimates a random effects probit model for the probability of households having mortgage payment problems. It is found that past experience of payment problems increases the probability that the household has difficulties servicing its secured debt today. At the household level, becoming unemployed, interest income gearing of 20% and above, high loan to value ratios and having a heavy burden of unsecured debt are all associated with a significantly higher probability of mortgage payment problems. Saving regularly and having unsecured debt which is not a problem are both associated with a significantly lower probability of mortgage payment problems. The only non-household-specific variable to have a significant effect is mortgage interest rates - the probability of payment problems increases with the level of mortgage interest rates. An aggregate measure of debt at risk is calculated. This has decreased between 1994 and 2002, as falls in the probability of mortgage payment problems have more than offset increases in the stock of mortgage debt outstanding. It is found that the fall in the probability of mortgage payment problems has been greatest among the most highly indebted households.
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:277&r=ure
  22. By: Merxe Tudela; Garry Young
    Abstract: Household indebtedness has grown sharply in the United Kingdom in recent years. This paper proposes a framework for understanding this based on a model in which households are assumed to plan their lifetime spending rationally, allowing for bequests to future generations. The model is set up to be consistent with both aggregate and disaggregated balance sheet positions as revealed in the British Household Panel Survey. The paper goes on to outline the effect on debt and balance sheets of changes in interest rates, house prices, preferences and retirement income.
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:266&r=ure
  23. By: Sebastian Barnes; Gregory Thwaites
    Abstract: This paper considers the interaction between the microeconomic decisions facing households and the macroeconomic environment in a setting where households have `real-world' mortgage contracts. In particular, we consider the possible consequences of the important changes in the framework for setting monetary policy in the United Kingdom in recent decades that have coincided with a more stable and low inflation environment. We set a model of households with 'real-world' mortgages in a partial equilibrium overlapping generations framework calibrated to UK data. We find that the welfare gains of the change of regime would have been considerable. However, the baseline calibration of the model implies that the volatility of aggregate consumption growth would actually be higher in the steady state in the more stable environment of the 1990s regime. This is due to greater synchrony in the response of households to shocks, offsetting the smaller magnitude of macroeconomic shocks. This effect is amplified by higher levels of debt in the 1990s. The result that aggregate consumption volatility could be higher in the current regime suggests that the observed fall in aggregate consumption volatility cannot necessarily be attributed to the more stable macroeconomic environment and the role of mortgage debt. If this result applies, this would suggest that the observed fall in volatility may be due either to other factors or may be a transitional phenomenon rather than a feature of the new steady state.
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:273&r=ure
  24. By: Imerman, Mark D.; Orazem, Peter; Sikdar, Shiva; Russell, Gina
    Abstract: The Iowa Board of Nursing licensing database for Registered Nurses (RNs) contains information on Registered Nurses who have renewed their licenses including age, race, gender, education, and location of employment. It also contains comparable information on nurses who opted not to renew at the time of their last renewal. This report contains an analysis of the nurses’ characteristics that increase the likelihood of license renewal based on all useable information contained in the licensing database. In addition, we randomly sampled subpopulations of nurses who had current licenses and nurses who had allowed their licenses to expire. A survey of these nurses was analyzed to provide insights into the effects of individual wages, benefits, family income, family responsibilities, hours worked, and commuting time on the decision to work, work in nursing, and maintain a nursing license.
    Keywords: wages, benefits, labor force, workforce, nurses, health care,
    JEL: J0 J3 J4
    Date: 2006–09–18
    URL: http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:isu:genres:12681&r=ure

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