nep-ure New Economics Papers
on Urban and Real Estate Economics
Issue of 2006‒07‒02
fourteen papers chosen by
Steve Ross
University of Connecticut

  1. Ségrégation résidentielle, accessibilité aux emplois et chômage : le cas de l'Ile-de-France By Laurent Gobillon; Harris Selod
  2. Teaching to the Rating: School Accountability and the Distribution of Student Achievement By Randall Reback
  3. How effective are poor schools? Poverty and educational outcomes in South Africa By Servaas van der Berg
  4. The owner-occupiers’ capital structure during a house price boom By Lunde, Jens
  5. Suburbanization and the Automobile By Karen A. Kopecky; Richard M. H. Suen
  6. The Use of Spatial Filtering Techniques: The Spatial and Space-time Structure of German Unemployment Data By Roberto Patuelli; Daniel A. Griffith; Michael Tiefelsdorf; Peter Nijkamp
  7. Property Condition Disclosure Law: Why Did States Mandate 'Seller Tell All'? By Anupam Nanda
  8. Strategic Urban Development under Uncertainty By Flavia Cortelezzi; Pierpaolo Giannoccolo
  9. The Impact of Black Male Incarceration on Black Females’ Fertility, Schooling, and Employment in the U.S., 1979-2000 By Stephane Mechoulan
  10. Aerotropolis: an aviation-linked space By Ricardo Flores-Fillol; Rosella Nicolini
  11. Intergovernmental Relations and Fiscal Discipline: Between Common Tax Resources and Soft Budget Constraints By Guiseppe Pisauro
  12. The Impact of Local Labor Market Conditions on the Demand for Education: Evidence from Indian Casinos By William Evans; Wooyoung Kim
  13. On a class of adjustable rate mortgage loans subject to a strict balance principle By Jensen, Bjarne Astrup
  14. Universities as drivers of the urban economies in Asia : the case of Vietnam By Tran Ngoc Ca

  1. By: Laurent Gobillon; Harris Selod
    Abstract: This paper starts with a review of the economic literature stressing how problems of residential segregation and physical access to jobs can exacerbate urban unemployment.We also present some descriptive statistics on residential segregation and disconnection from jobs in the Paris region using data from the 1999 census of the population and commuting time matrices provided by the ministry of infrastructure for 2000. We then estimate the impact of the local context (segregation and disconnection from jobs) on the transitions from unemployment to work using data from the Labor Force Survey between 1990 and 2002. We show that unemployed workers in segregated areas experience additional difficulties in finding a job. A sensitivity analysis confirms that these spatial effects are robust when the endogeneity of residence is taken into account.
    Keywords: Residential segregation ;spatial mismatch ; social networks ; redlining ; urban unemployment
    JEL: J64 R14
    Date: 2006–06
  2. By: Randall Reback (Barnard College, Columbia University)
    Abstract: This paper examines whether minimum competency school accountability systems, such as those created under No Child Left Behind, influence the distribution of student achievement. Because school ratings in these systems only incorporate students' test scores via pass rates, this type of system increases incentives for schools to improve the performance of students who are on the margin of passing but does not increase short-run incentives for schools to improve other students' performance. Using student-level, panel data from Texas during the 1990's, I explicitly calculate schools' short-run incentives to improve various students' expected performance, and I find that schools do respond to these incentives. Students perform better than expected when their test score is particularly important for their schools' accountability rating. Also, low achieving students perform better than expected in math when many of their classmates' math scores are important for the schools' rating, while relatively high achieving students do not perform better. Distributional effects appear to be related to broad changes in resources or instruction, as well as narrowly tailored attempts to improve the performance of specific students.
    Keywords: School Accountability; Performance measures; Test scores; No Child Left Behind; School Ratings; Incentives; Distributional Effects; Minimum Competency
    JEL: I28 H39
    Date: 2006–05
  3. By: Servaas van der Berg (Department of Economics, Stellenbosch University)
    Abstract: Massive differentials on achievement tests and examinations reflect South Africa’s divided past. Improving the distribution of educational outcomes is imperative to overcome labour market inequalities. Historically white and Indian schools still outperform black and coloured schools in examinations, and intraclass correlation coefficients (rho) reflect far greater between-school variance compared to overall variance than for other countries. SACMEQ’s rich data sets provide new possibilities for investigating relationships between educational outcomes, socio-economic status (SES), pupil and teacher characteristics, school resources and school processes. As a different data generating process applied in affluent historically white schools (test scores showed bimodal distributions), part of the analysis excluded such schools, sharply reducing rho. Test scores were regressed on various SES measures and school inputs for the full and reduced sample, using survey regression and hierarchical (multilevel) (HLM) models to deal with sample design and nested data. This shows that the school system was not yet systematically able to overcome inherited socio-economic disadvantage, and poor schools least so. Schools diverged in their ability to convert inputs into outcomes, with large standard deviations for random effects in the HLM models. The models explained three quarters of the large between-school variance but little of the smaller within-school variance. Outside of the richest schools, SES had only a mild impact on test scores, which were quite low in SACMEQ context.
    Keywords: Analysis of Education
    JEL: J21
    Date: 2006
  4. By: Lunde, Jens (Department of Finance, Copenhagen Business School)
    Abstract: House and flat prices have been through a tremendous bust and boom cycle in Denmark. From 1986 to 1993 real prices for houses and flats dropped by one third on average, foreclosures accounted for around 1/6 of the house and flat turnovers in numbers, and in reality the market for owner-occupied houses and flats was in a crisis. Initiated by a strong interest rate drop and by an expansive finance policy, the market turned. From 1993H1 to 2004H1 real house prices increased 76% and real flat prices 128%. Moreover, Denmark has a leading position in the international household debt race and as in many other countries the fear of the consequences of a strong interest rate increase for the housing market is widespread. Therefore, in order to examine the financial stability among owner-occupiers, a sample of approx. 40,000 owner-occupier families with data at household level has been drawn from the tax statistics for each year from 1987 to 2003. Through the analysis it is shown that the distributions of the owner-occupiers’ capital structure, measured by the net liability/housing wealth ratios, have more or less been the same throughout the 16 years, even during the long-lasting steep house and flat price rise. Moreover, since 1994 the median value of the net liability/income ratio has increased by 71% for all owner-occupiers and by 54% for owner-occupiers between 30-39 years of age.Finally, one last, important aspect of the financial stability of owner-occupiers, namely, their capacity to service their debt has been analysed. The owner-occupiers’ net interest expenditures/ income ratios before tax have been nearly halved from 1987 to 2003. Most of the drop happened during the years of the “housing market failure. From 1994 on the ratios were more slightly reduced and were in 2003 at 8.8% (median value) for all owner-occupiers and 12.2% for owner-occupiers between 30-39 years of age. However, if the reductions of the tax rates for deducting interest expenditures are taken into account, the 2003 after-tax-ratios are only about 2 percentage points below the 1987 after-tax ratios. At March 2005, a new challenge facing Danish owner-occupiers is that 50% of their mortgages carry interest adjustment.
    Keywords: house prices; housing wealth; real estate wealth; housing debt; mortgage debt; personal wealth; personal finance; loan-to-value; debt-to-income; interest expenditures; interest-to-income; financial stability
    JEL: D14 E44 G21 R20 R31
    Date: 2006–05–01
  5. By: Karen A. Kopecky (University of Rochester); Richard M. H. Suen (University of Rochester)
    Abstract: During the period 1910 to 1970, an increasing fraction of the urban population in the US chose to live on the outskirts of central cities. This was also a time when a major innovation in transportation technology, the automobile, was introduced and widely adopted. The objective of this paper is to assess quantitatively the relationship between the two. To achieve this, a simple model is constructed in which agents can choose where to live and whether or not to buy a car. When the model is calibrated, it can explain about 70 percent of the rise in car-ownership over the period 1910 to 1970 and all of the suburbanization trend. According to the model, rising income and falling car prices alone are not enough to generate the suburbanization trend. It is essential to have also: (i) a declining cost of commuting by car which allows car-owners to live further away from the city center, and (ii) a rising cost of using public transportation which encourages agents to make the swith to automobiles.
    Keywords: automobiles, suburbanization, population density gradients
    JEL: E10 O11 N12 R12
    Date: 2004–01
  6. By: Roberto Patuelli (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Daniel A. Griffith (University of Texas at Dallas); Michael Tiefelsdorf (University of Texas at Dallas); Peter Nijkamp (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam)
    Abstract: Socio-economic interrelationships among regions can be measured in terms of economic flows, migration, or physical geographically-based measures, such as distance or length of shared areal unit boundaries. In general, proximity and openness tend to favour a similar economic performance among adjacent regions. Therefore, proper forecasting of socio-economic variables, such as employment, requires an understanding of spatial (or spatio-temporal) autocorrelation effects associated with a particular geographic configuration of a system of regions. Several spatial econometric techniques have been developed in recent years to identify spatial interaction effects within a parametric framework. Alternatively, newly devised spatial filtering techniques aim to achieve this end as well through the use of a semi-parametric approach. Experiments presented in this paper deal with the analysis of and accounting for spatial autocorrelation by means of spatial filtering t! echniques for data pertaining to regional unemployment in Germany. The available data set comprises information about the share of unemployed workers in 439 German districts (the NUTS-III regional aggregation level). Results based upon an eigenvector spatial filter model formulation (that is, the use of orthogonal map pattern components), constructed for the 439 German districts, are presented, with an emphasis on their consistency over several years. Insights obtained by applying spatial filtering to the database are also discussed.
    Keywords: spatial autocorrelation; spatial filtering; unemployment; Germany
    JEL: C14 C21 C23 R23
    Date: 2006–05–22
  7. By: Anupam Nanda (National Association of Home Builders and University of Connecticut)
    Abstract: Thirty-six US states have already enacted some form of seller's property condition disclosure law. At a time when there is a movement in this direction nationally, this paper attempts to ascertain the factors that lead states to adopt disclosure law. Motivation for the study stems from the fact that not all states have yet adopted the law, and states that have enacted the law have done so in different years. The analytical structure employs hazard models, using a unique set of economic and institutional attributes for a panel of 50 US States spanning 21 years, from 1984 to 2004. The proportional hazard analysis of law adoption reveals that greater number of disciplinary actions tends to favor passage of the law. Greater broker supervision, implying generally higher awareness among real estate agents, seems to have a negative impact on the likelihood of a state adopting a property condition disclosure law.
    Keywords: Property Condition Disclosure, Law Adoption, Hazard Analysis, Housing Price Index
    JEL: C41 D82 K11 L51 L85 R52
    Date: 2006–06
  8. By: Flavia Cortelezzi; Pierpaolo Giannoccolo
    Abstract: Aim of this paper is to analyse the equilibrium strategies of two developers in the real estate market, when demands are asymmetric. In particular, we are able to consider three key features of the real estate market. First, the cost of redevelop a building is, at least partially, irreversible. Second, the rent levels for different building vary stochastically over time. Third, demand functions for space are interrelated and may produce positive or negative externalities. Using the method of option pricing theory, we address this issue at three levels. First, we model the investment decision of a firm as a pre-assigned leader as a dynamic stochastic game. Then, we solve for the non-cooperative (decentralised) case, and for the perfectly cooperative case, in which redevelopment of an area is coordinated between firms. Finally, we analyse the efficiency/inefficiency of the equilibria of the game. We find that if one firm has a significantly large comparative advantage, the pre-emptive threat from the rival will be negligible. In this case, short burst and overbuilding phenomena as predicted by Grenadier (1996) will occur only as a limiting case.
    Keywords: Duopoly Game, Real Options, Preemptive Strategies, Asymmetric Demands
    JEL: G12 G13
    Date: 2006–06
  9. By: Stephane Mechoulan
    Abstract: We examine how the rising incarceration of Black men and the sex ratio imbalance it induces shapes young Black women’s behavior during their late teens and early twenties. Combining data from the BJS and the CPS to match incarceration rates with individual observations, we show that Black male incarceration lowers the odds of non-marital teenage fertility and increases single Black women’s school attainment and early employment. We do not find consistent evidence that high Black male incarceration rates decrease the likelihood of getting married for young Black women. These results are robust to using sentencing changes and prison capacity expansions as instruments for incarceration.
    Keywords: incarceration, prison, prison capacity, sentencing laws, teenage fertility, education, school, labor force participation
    JEL: I21 K42 J12 J13 J15 J22 J24
    Date: 2006–06–22
  10. By: Ricardo Flores-Fillol; Rosella Nicolini
    Abstract: This paper examines the conditions allowing for the formation of aeropolitan areas as large industrial areas with a high concentration of commercial activities in the proximity of cargo airports. When firms deliver part of their production by plane, land competition takes place among service operators, firms and farmers. Service operators supply facilities that firms can take advantage of. Our framework allows selecting a stable land equilibrium: the spatial sequence Airport-Industrial Park-Rural Area (A-I-R). Aerotropolis-type configurations arise around cargo airports when there is an intense use of the airport by the firms and a sufficiently high level of facilities.
    Keywords: Aerotropolis; facilities; bid-rent function
    JEL: L29 L90 R14
    Date: 2006–06–16
  11. By: Guiseppe Pisauro
    Abstract: Fiscal decentralization is likely to entail a bias in the budget process toward higher public expenses and deficits. The paper reviews lessons drawn from the theoretical literature and international experience on the design of intergovernmental relations. The institutional setup should address the dual problem of "common tax resources" and "soft" budget constraints, where policies devised to correct one problem may exacerbate the other. An approach based on full tax autonomy of lower-tier governments and reliance on market discipline, not supplemented by self-imposed constitutional limits, is not advisable. More effective seems to be a cooperative approach with some preeminence granted to the central government.
    Keywords: Fiscal Management , Government expenditures , Taxation , Budgets , Intergovernmental fiscal relations ,
  12. By: William Evans; Wooyoung Kim
    Abstract: Using restricted-use data from the 1990 and 2000 Census long-form, we analyze the impact of local labor market conditions on the demand for education using the economic shock produced by the opening of a new casino on an Indian reservation as the identifying event. Federal legislation in 1988 allowed Indian tribes to open casinos in many states and since then, over 400 casinos have opened, 240 of which have Las Vegas-style games. We demonstrate that the opening of a casino increased the employment and wages of low-skilled workers. Young adults responded by dropping out of high school and reducing college enrollment rates, even though many tribes have generous college tuition subsidy programs.
    Date: 2006–06
  13. By: Jensen, Bjarne Astrup (Department of Finance, Copenhagen Business School)
    Abstract: We describe the background and the basic funding mechanisms for the type of adjustable rate mortgage loans that were introduced in the Danish market in 1996. Each loan is funded separately by tap issuing pass-through mortgage bonds (“strict balance principle). The novelty is a funding mechanism that uses a roll-over strategy, where long term loans are funded by sequentially issuing short term pass-through bonds, and the first issuer of these loans obtained a patent on the funding principles in 1999. Publicly available descriptions of the principles leave an impression of very complicated numerical algorithms. The algorithms described here show that the essentials can be reduced to a “back of an envelope" complexity.
    Keywords: Adjustable rate mortgages; balance principle; patent; yield curve riding
    JEL: C63 G21
    Date: 2005–01–07
  14. By: Tran Ngoc Ca
    Abstract: This study looks at the contribution of the university system in Vietnam to the socioeconomic development in general, and their relationship with firms, dynamic actors of the economy in particular. The study uses different methods of research, from reliance on secondary data to interviews with universities and survey of firms. Several case studies of the key universities in four regions have been undertaken: Hanoi in the north, Danang in the center, and Ho Chi Minh City and Cantho in the south of Vietnam. The findings show that the role of Vietnamese universities in research is much weaker than teaching, and that their contribution to the socioeconomic development of the country is limited to the production of an educated labor force rather than innovation. However, in selected universities, innovation did take place to a certain extent and brought benefits for both the universities and firms they served. This situation is explained by both the inherited university system in Vietnam and its shift in behavior in the context of economic renovation and globalization.
    Keywords: Tertiary Education,ICT Policy and Strategies,Agricultural Knowledge & Information Systems,Rural Development Knowledge & Information Systems,Access & Equity in Basic Education
    Date: 2006–06–01

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