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on Utility Models and Prospect Theory |
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Issue of 2018‒08‒27
twenty-one papers chosen by |
| By: | Runjie Geng (University of Zurich) |
| Abstract: | I provide a new way to model bounded rationality and show the existence of recursive equilibria with bounded rational agents. The existence proof applies to dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models with infinitely lived heterogeneous agents and incomplete markets. In this type of models, recursive methods are widely used to compute equilibria, yet recursive equilibria do not exist generically with rational agents. I change the rational expectation assumption and model bounded rationality as follows. Different from a rational agent, a bounded rational agent does not know the true Markov transition of the state space of the economy. In order to make decisions, the bounded rational agent would try to compute a stationary distribution of the state space using a numerical method and then use the Markov transition associated with it to maximize utility. For a certain distribution of the current period, given other agents' strategies, the agent would get its next-period transition: the distribution of the state space in the next period that results from the competitive equilibrium in the next period. However, if a distribution stays ``closer'' to its next-period transition than the minimum error the numerical method can observe, the agent would consider it as computational stationary. In equilibrium, each agent maximizes utility with a computational stationary distribution and markets clear. I use the Kantorovich-Rubinshtein norm to characterize the distance between distributions of the state space. With this set up, usual convergence criteria used in the literature can be incorporated and thus many computed equilibria in the literature using recursive methods can be categorized as bounded rational recursive equilibria in the sense of this paper. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed018:137&r=upt |
| By: | Francois Guillemin (National Research University Higher School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the theoretical relationship between ambiguity aversion and the decision to withdraw early from a deposit contract. We first document and define the concepts to illustrate our results. Then we extend the theoretical framework of Gorton (1985) to implement a model of maxmin expected utility to match the ambiguity aversion hypothesis. We observe that the most ambiguous depositors are more likely to mistakenly withdraw their deposits, reducing bank stability and leading to inefficient bank runs. We also show higher ambiguity levels negatively impact bank equity levels |
| Keywords: | Banking governance, ambiguity aversion, depositor's behaviour, bank runs |
| JEL: | G02 G18 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hig:wpaper:68/fe/2018&r=upt |
| By: | Sun, Zhenhua; Cao, Ying (Jessica) |
| Abstract: | Producers are consistently facing risks and uncertainties when making business decisions. Yet, behavioral economics shows that some producers are often irrational due to misperception of risks. In particular, when people take less notice of the risks they face or tend to believe certain outcomes to be more favorable on average than the true outcomes, they are overconfident. In the market context, studies have shown that in theory, overconfident yet risk-averse producers would produce more aggressively and get closer to the production level of their risk-neutral counterparts. When it comes to market outcomes, overconfident producers may even have better chances to succeed at the extreme cases, driving rational yet risk-averse producers out of the market. This study proposes a feasible way to empirically disentangle the effects of overconfidence and risk aversion on business performance. This study utilizes a theoretical characterization of production behaviors and the Ontario Farm Income Database to discern the effects of risk aversion and overconfidence on market outcome and business performance. Preliminary results show that even though risk aversion may decrease the expected payoff on average, moderate level of overconfidence would overweigh the conservativeness due to risk aversion, leaving the producers with competitive advantages surviving the market. The results will shed light on the distribution of these behavioral traits within the producer population and their effects on sector competitiveness, which would not be observed otherwise. Market welfare analysis and the marginal effects of participating government sponsored programs, such as Business Risk Management programs will also be discussed. Les producteurs font constamment face aux risques et aux incertitudes lorsqu'ils prennent des décisions d'affaires. Pourtant, l'économie comportementale montre que certains producteurs sont souvent irrationnels pour cause de la mauvaise perception des risques. En particulier, lorsque les gens prêtent moins attention aux risques auxquels ils sont confrontés ou qu'ils ont tendance à croire que certains résultats semblent plus favorables en moyenne que les réels résultats, ils deviennent trop confiants. Dans le contexte du marché, les études ont démontré qu'en théorie, les producteurs trop confiants, mais peu enclins au risque produiront de façon plus agressive et arriveront plus près du niveau de production de leurs homologues neutres à l'égard des risques. Lorsqu'il est question des résultats du marché, les producteurs trop confiants peuvent même avoir de meilleures chances de réussir dans les cas extrêmes, entraînant les producteurs rationnels, mais peu enclins au risque, à l'extérieur du marché. Cette étude propose une manière réalisable de démêler de façon empirique les effets de l'excès de confiance et de l'aversion pour le risque sur le rendement des affaires. Cette étude utilise une description théorique des comportements de production ainsi que la base de données des revenus des fermes de l’Ontario pour discerner les effets de l'aversion pour le risque et de l'excès de confiance sur les résultats du marché et le rendement des affaires. Les résultats préliminaires montrent que malgré le fait que l'aversion pour le risque puisse faire diminuer les bénéfices attendus en moyenne, un niveau modéré d'excès de confiance accorderait trop de poids à la prudence causé par l'aversion pour le risque, donnant aux producteurs des avantages concurrentiels sur le marché. Les résultats clarifieront la distribution de ces traits comportementaux au sein de la population de producteurs et de leurs effets sur la compétitivité du secteur, ce qui ne serait pas observé autrement. L'analyse de la santé du marché et les effets marginaux de la participation aux programmes subventionnés par le gouvernement comme les programmes de gestion des risques de l'entreprise seront aussi abordés. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:cafp17:253252&r=upt |
| By: | Matthew Ryan (School of Economics, Auckland University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | We present new axiomatisations for various models of binary stochastic choice that may be characterised as "expected utility maximisation with noise". These include axiomatisations of strictly (Ryan 2018a) and simply (Tversky and Russo, 1969) scalable models, plus strict (Ryan, 2015) and strong (Debreu, 1958) Fechner models. Our axiomatisations complement the important contributions of Blavatskyy (2008) and Dagsvik (2008). Our representation theorems set all models on a common axiomatic foundation, progressively augmented by additional axioms necessary to characterise successively more restrictive models. In particular, we are able to decompose Blavatskyy's (2008) common consequence independence axiom into two parts: one that underwrites the linearity of utility and another than underwrites the Fechnerian structure of noise. This has signifcant advantages for testing the Fechnerian models, as we discuss. |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aut:wpaper:201806&r=upt |
| By: | Le Cotty, Tristan; Maître d'Hôtel, Elodie; Soubeyran, Raphaël; Subervie, Julie |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates whether Burkinabe maize farmers’ fertilizer-use decisions are correlated with their risk and time preferences. We conducted a survey and a series of hypothetical experiments on a sample of 1,500 farmers. We ?nd that more patient farmers do use more fertilizer, but it is only because they plant more maize (a fertilizer-intensive crop) rather than because they use more fertilizer per hectare of maize planted. Conversely, we ?nd no statistically signi?cant link between risk aversion and fertilizer use. We use a simple two-period model, which suggests that risk aversion may indeed have an ambiguous effect on fertilizer use. |
| Keywords: | Agricultural and Food Policy, Production Economics, Risk and Uncertainty |
| Date: | 2017–02 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:inramo:253532&r=upt |
| By: | Fernando Alvarez (University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | We analyze a one period economy with CARA preferences, and normally distributed aggregate risk. We allow an arbitrary distribution of (dogmatic) beliefs on the expected value and variance of the aggregate risk, as well as on the agent’s risk tolerance param- eter. We show that there is a representative agent whose risk tolerance, and beliefs over expected value and variance are appropriately defined weighted averages of the same objects across all agents. We show a type of 3 fund separation theorem: any efficient allocation can be decentralized with three asset: an uncontingent bond, a Lucas’s tree, and a simple variance swap –whose price is given by the SVIX index, an index closely related to VIX, given by the the price of a portfolio of out of the money puts and calls. We give simple expressions for the relative prices of these securities in terms of the representative agent’s parameters. We also give simple expressions for each agent’s holding on the Lucas’ tree and the simple variance swap as function of the agent’s differences with the representative agent’s values. The main novelty of the setup is the explicit role for a simple variance swap –or the portfolio of puts and calls– in the decentralization of efficient allocations. In equilibrium there are different positions in the the variance swap –or to the options portfolio– if and only if there is heterogeneity in the beliefs of the aggregate risk of the economy, and hence these heterogeneity maps into trade volume. To understand the role of different assumption we also study the case of arbitrary belief and utility function for a small noise. Finally, we extend the results to a multiperiod setting, for which they hold conditionally on the history for each period. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed018:1066&r=upt |
| By: | Obloj, Tomasz; Gutierrez, Cédric; Douglas, Frank |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we develop a theoretical model and offer a first empirical test of how competitive dethronement affects managerial risk taking. Drawing on the mechanism of endowment effect and reference-dependent utility theory, we predict that former market leaders take more risks compared to, otherwise identical, competitors. We empirically test this prediction using two contexts allowing us to use different methods to operationalize risk. The first setting draws on field data from a two-month banking sales contest. The second, quasi-laboratory, data comes from an educational game. Consistent with model’s prediction, we find that dethronement is associated with increased risk taking but that the endowment effect leading to such response decays over time. In contrast, a mere decline in performance ranking does not have the same effect. |
| Keywords: | Competitive Dethronement; Endowment Effect; Risk Taking |
| JEL: | D81 |
| Date: | 2017–11–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1240&r=upt |
| By: | Gilboa, Itzhak; Rouziou, Maria; Sibony, Olivier |
| Abstract: | Decision theory offers a formal approach to decision making, which is often viewed and taught as the rational way to approach managerial decisions. Half a century ago it generated high hopes of capturing and perhaps replacing intuition, and providing the “right” answer in practically all managerial situations. Today it seems fair to say that decision theory has not lived up to these expectations. Behavioral science provides ample evidence that managers fail to follow the dicta of decision theory, even when these are explained to them. As a result, executives often find decision theory frustrating and useless and prefer to rely on their intuition. This paper suggests that this extreme conclusion is unwarranted and calls for a re-appraisal of decision theory. We propose that it should not always be regarded as a mathematical tool that produces the answer; rather, it can be viewed as a framework for a dialog between the decision maker and the decision theorist. In one extreme, the decision theorist studies the problem and provides the “correct’’ answer. But in another, the decision theorist only challenges the decision maker’s intuition and logic. In between, a whole gamut of possible dialogs exists, in which decision theory doesn’t replace intuition, but supports and refines it. |
| Keywords: | decision theory; decision maker’s intuition |
| JEL: | A10 |
| Date: | 2018–01–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1266&r=upt |
| By: | Stourm, Ludovic; Iyengar, Raghuram; Bradlow, Eric |
| Abstract: | We utilize household production theory to address the problem of micro-level demand estimation across complementary goods. According to this theory, consumers buy inputs and combine them to produce final goods from which they derive utility. We use this idea to build a structural model of demand for complements that can be estimated on purchase data in the presence of corner solutions and indivisible packages. We find that, even when reusing the same functional form as some previous models of demand for substitutes, the model can accommodate very different patterns of consumer preferences over complements and lead to a flexible demand system from perfect complementarity to no complementarity. We estimate the model on purchase data from a panel of consumers and show how it can be used to increase the profitability of couponing strategies by taking into account the spillover effect of coupons on demand for complementary categories. |
| Keywords: | Utility Theory; Multicategory Demand Models; Bayesian Estimation |
| JEL: | M31 |
| Date: | 2017–08–22 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1225&r=upt |
| By: | Aydinli, Aylin; Gu, Yangjie; Pham, Michel Tuan |
| Abstract: | Although choosing from large assortments has often been found to be demotivating, a robust finding in the marketing literature is that consumers generally prefer larger product assortments. Standard explanations for this preference for larger assortments have focused on reason-based considerations revolving around large assortments enabling potentially “better” choices. This paper offers a different and novel, affect-based explanation. We argue that the relative preference for larger assortments is driven in part by the greater experience utility that consumers derive from reviewing such assortments. Because most products are carriers of positive affect, consumers tend to derive greater experience utility from reviewing larger assortments compared to smaller assortments. Support for this general proposition was found across four experimental studies using different strategies to document the role of affect-based experience utility in driving the preference for larger assortments. Theoretical and substantive implications are discussed. |
| Keywords: | assortment size; affect; emotion; consumer decision making |
| JEL: | A10 |
| Date: | 2017–06–20 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1217&r=upt |
| By: | Sauthoff, Saramena; Danne, Michael; Mußhoff, Oliver |
| Abstract: | In order to achieve an environmentally friendly and sustainable energy supply, it is necessary that this goal is supported by society. In different countries worldwide it has been shown that one way consumers want to support the energy transition is by purchasing green electricity. However, few people make the leap from their intention to a buying decision. This study explores parameters that influence whether German consumers decide to switch to a green electricity tariff. We conducted a quota-representative online survey including a discrete choice experiment with 371 private households in Germany in 2016. For the econometric analysis, a generalized multinomial logit model in willingness to pay (WTP) space was employed, enabling the estimation of WTP values to be as realistic as possible. The results show that consumers’ decision regarding whether or not to make the switch to green energy is influenced by many underlying drivers, such as the source of green energy, whether a person can outsource the switching process, and a person’s attitude towards the renewable energy sources levy that currently exists in Germany. Implications for policy makers and recommendations for the marketing of green energy tariffs are provided. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Environmental Economics and Policy, Institutional and Behavioral Economics |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gadadp:260771&r=upt |
| By: | Michael Woodford |
| Abstract: | It is common to analyze the effects of alternative monetary policy commitments under the assumption of fully model-consistent expectations. This implicitly assumes unrealistic cognitive abilities on the part of economic decision makers. The relevant question, however, is not whether the assumption can be literally correct, but how much it would matter to model decision making in a more realistic way. A model is proposed, based on the architecture of artificial intelligence programs for problems such as chess or go, in which decision makers look ahead only a finite distance into the future, and use a value function learned from experience to evaluate situations that may be reached after a finite sequence of actions by themselves and others. Conditions are discussed under which the predictions of a model with finite-horizon forward planning are similar to those of a rational expectations equilibrium, and under which they are instead quite different. The model is used to re-examine the consequences that should be expected from a central-bank commitment to maintain a fixed nominal interest rate for a substantial period of time. “Neo-Fisherian” predictions are shown to depend on using rational expectations equilibrium analysis under circumstances in which it should be expected to be unreliable. |
| JEL: | E52 |
| Date: | 2018–06 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24692&r=upt |
| By: | Thomas Dohmen (Universität Bonn); Simone Quercia (University of Bonn); Jana Willrodt (University of Duesseldorf) |
| Abstract: | We show that the disposition to focus on favorable or unfavorable outcomes of risky situations affects willingness to take risk as measured by the general risk question. We demonstrate that this disposition, which we call risk conception, is strongly associated with optimism, a stable facet of personality and that it predicts real-life risk taking. The general risk question captures this disposition alongside pure risk preference. This enlightens why the general risk question is a better predictor of behavior under risk across different domains than measures of pure risk preference. Our results also rationalize why risk taking is related to optimism. |
| Keywords: | risk, optimism, behavior |
| JEL: | D91 C91 D81 D01 |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hka:wpaper:2018-056&r=upt |
| By: | Bauermeister, Golo-Friedrich; Mußhoff, Oliver |
| Abstract: | A common approach to elicit risk attitude is the multiple price list with a series of binary choices. However, a frequently observed problem when using multiple price lists is that participants switch more than once from the safer to the riskier option, thus exhibiting multiple switching behavior. The present study analyzes whether the visualization of different multiple price lists reduce multiple switching behavior. Therefore, we conduct two types of multiple price lists in two different display formats. Participants are randomly assigned into a textual or a visual group and carry out both multiple price lists in the corresponding display format. Our results reveal that different types of multiple price lists lead to differences in the extent of multiple switching behavior. Moreover, we show that the visualization of a multiple price list can be an instrument to greatly reduce multiple switching behavior. |
| Keywords: | Consumer/Household Economics, Institutional and Behavioral Economics |
| Date: | 2017 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:gadadp:260770&r=upt |
| By: | Luciano Pomatto; Philipp Strack; Omer Tamuz |
| Abstract: | We ask the following question: Given two random variables, $X$ and $Y$, under what conditions is it possible to find a random variable $Z$, independent from $X$ and $Y$, so that $X+Z$ first-order stochastically dominates $Y+Z$ ? We show that such a $Z$ exists whenever $X$ has higher expectation than $Y$. In addition, if $X$ and $Y$ have equal mean, but the first has lower variance, then $Z$ can be chosen so that $X + Z$ dominates $Y + Z$ in terms of second-order stochastic dominance. We present applications to choice under risk and mechanism design. |
| Date: | 2018–07 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1807.06927&r=upt |
| By: | Tobias Broer (Stockholm University); Alexandre Kohlhas (Institute for International Economic Studies, Stockholm University); Kathrin Schlafmann (Institute for International Economic Stu); Kurt Mitman (IIES) |
| Abstract: | We study the incentives of heterogeneous households to acquire information about the state of the economy. In the standard Krusell and Smith (1998) environment, where households differ in their labor productivity and asset holdings, we find that: i) when agents use current productivity and aggregate capital to condition expectations (the Krusell and Smith (1998) benchmark), expected utility losses from forming expectations equal to unconditional means correspond to less than 0:05 percent of lifetime consumption. In other words, the Krusell and Smith (1998) information structure is an equilibrium only if information is essentially free. ii) when all agents decide to not acquire information beyond the unconditional mean of the capital distribution, the capital stock is significantly more volatile. This increases the loss of not using the current capital stock to forecast future variables to between 0:5 and 3:5 percent of lifetime consumption, depending on the level of capital. iii) The individual benefits of information acquisition under ii) strongly depend on an individual’s position in the wealth distribution and the aggregate capital stock. |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:red:sed018:752&r=upt |
| By: | Yum, Minchul |
| Abstract: | In the United States, the employment rate is nearly flat across wealth quintiles with the exception of the first quintile. Correlations between wealth and employment are close to zero or moderately positive. However, incomplete markets models with a standard utility function counterfactually generate a strongly negative relationship between wealth and employment. Using a fairly standard incomplete markets model calibrated to match the distribution of wealth, I find that government transfers and capital income taxation increase the (non-targeted) correlations between wealth and employment substantially, bringing the model closer to the data. As the model`s fit with the distribution of wealth and employment improves, I find that the precautionary motive of labor supply is mitigated, thereby raising aggregate labor supply elasticities substantially. |
| Keywords: | Wealth distribution , employment , government transfers , capital income taxation , aggregate labor supply elasticity |
| JEL: | E24 E21 J22 |
| Date: | 2018 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mnh:wpaper:44432&r=upt |
| By: | Ayelet Amiran; Fabrice Baudoin; Skylyn Brock; Berend Coster; Ryan Craver; Ugonna Ezeaka; Phanuel Mariano; Mary Wishart |
| Abstract: | An explicit formula is derived for the value of weak information in a discrete time model that works for a wide range of utility functions including the logarithmic and power utility. We assume a complete market with a finite number of assets and a finite number of possible outcomes. Explicit calculations are performed for a binomial model with two assets. The case of trinomial models is also discussed. |
| Date: | 2018–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:1808.03186&r=upt |
| By: | Yegoryan, Narine (Humboldt University Berlin); Guhl, Daniel (Humboldt University Berlin); Klapper, Daniel (Humboldt University Berlin) |
| Abstract: | Traditionally, the choice-based conjoint analysis relies on the assumption of rational decision makers that use all available information. However, several studies suggest that people ignore some information when making choices. In this paper, we build upon recent developments in the choice literature and employ a latent class model that simultaneously allows for attribute non-attendance (ANA) and preference heterogeneity. In addition, we relate visual attention derived from eye tracking to the probability of ANA to test, understand, and validate ANA in a marketing context. In two empirical applications, we find that a) our proposed model fits the data best, b) the majority of respondents indeed ignores some attributes, which has implications for willingness-to-pay estimates, segmentation, and targeting, and c) even though the latent class model identifies ANA well without eye tracking information, our model with visual attention helps to better understand ANA by also accounting for differences in attribute processing patterns. |
| Keywords: | attribute non-attendance; eye tracking; discrete choice modeling; choice-based conjoint analysis; |
| Date: | 2018–08–03 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:111&r=upt |
| By: | Howell, John R.; Ebbes, Peter; Liechty, John; Jenkins, Porter |
| Abstract: | Empirical demand functions (based on experimental studies, such as Choice Based Conjoint) are critical to many aspects of marketing, such as targeting and segmentation, setting prices and evaluating the potential of new products. While considerable work has been done on developing approaches for ensuring that research subjects are both honest and engaged, the reduced cost associated with collecting data in an online setting has driven many studies to be collected under conditions which leave researchers unsure of the value of the information content provided by each subject. Objective measures related to how the subject completes the study, such as latency (how quickly answers are given), can only be tied to other objective measures (such as the fit of the model or consistency of the answer) and ultimately have questionable relationship to the subject's utility function. In response to this problem, we introduce a mixture modeling framework which clusters subjects based on variances in a choice based setting (multinomial logit models). This model naturally groups subjects based on the internal consistency of their answers, where we argue that a higher level of internal consistence (hence lower variance) reflects more engaged consumers who have sufficient experience with the product category and choice task, to have well-formed utilities. This approach provides an automated way of determining which consumers are relevant. We discuss both the modeling framework and illustrate the methods using data from several commercial conjoint studies. |
| Keywords: | Multinomial Logit; Conjoint Analysis; Data Quality; Finite Mixture Models |
| JEL: | M31 |
| Date: | 2017–08–08 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ebg:heccah:1223&r=upt |
| By: | De Francesco, Edi; Perito, Maria Angela; Bozzolan, Irene; Stefani, Gianluca; Cei, Leonardo Cei |
| Abstract: | Paper explores Italian consumer appreciation for health-related and environmental friendly attributes of whole-wheat pasta and compares two approaches in the information provision: a “holistic” approach (inform consumer on the overall product characteristics) with an “attribute-specific” one. A modified version of the attribute-based referenda model (ABR) has been estimated on sequence of two dichotomous choice questions randomly administered to a sample of households, starting only with a one attribute version (“adding” treatment) or the complete product one (“subtracting”). Results suggest that taste and habits are great barriers to overcome, since only whole-wheat pasta consumers are willing to pay for the health-related attribute. It gets worse for the environmental attribute for which people are not willing to pay even if informed on the environmental-friendly method of production. However, the way in which information is provided, holistically or attribute-based, is important, with higher value attached to attributes when evaluated in the subtracting context, supporting prospect theory and endowment effect. |
| Keywords: | Agribusiness, Consumer/Household Economics |
| Date: | 2017–07–31 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aiea17:261258&r=upt |