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on Urban Economics and Policy |
| By: | Dionissi Aliprantis; Jeffrey Lin |
| Abstract: | This paper explores how spatial spillovers define neighborhoods and drive neighborhood change through a stylized computable equilibrium model of income-based residential sorting. We find three main results. First, stronger spillovers create larger, more distinct neighborhood clusters even when the spatial scope of externalities is small. Second, spillovers make neighborhoods resistant to small change but also susceptible to rapid shifts between equilibrium states. Third, stronger spillovers concentrate change at cluster boundaries and isolated locations rather than neighborhood interiors. Extending Schelling-like insights to income sorting dynamics, the model treats neighborhood shape as an endogenous outcome determined by decentralized household location choices mediated through housing markets. The framework helps explain persistent urban segregation patterns, neighborhood resilience, and the geography of neighborhood change, offering new approaches for linking spatial spillovers to urban spatial structure and dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Neighborhood dynamics; neighborhood formation; spatial externalities; income sorting; residential segregation; neighborhood morphology |
| JEL: | R23 C61 D62 |
| Date: | 2026–02–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:102819 |
| By: | Sam Asher (Imperial College London); Kritarth Jha (Development Data Lab); Paul Novosad (Dartmouth College Economics Department and NBER); Anjali Adukia (University of Chicago Harris School of Public Policy and NBER); Brandon Tan (Harvard University Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | We study residential segregation and access to public services across 1.5 million urban and rural neighborhoods in India. Muslim and Scheduled Caste segregation in India is high by global standards, and only slightly lower than Black-White segregation in the U.S. Within cities, public facilities and infrastructure are systematically less available in Muslim and Scheduled Caste neighborhoods. Nearly all regressive allocation is across neighborhoods within cities—at the most informal and least studied form of government. These inequalities are not visible in the aggregate data typically used for research and policy. |
| JEL: | H4 H41 I24 J15 O15 R12 R13 R23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-28 |
| By: | Frédéric Robert-Nicoud; Pierre-Philippe Combes; Gilles Duranton; Laurent Gobillon |
| Abstract: | Canonical urban models fail to jointly account for flexible housing demand, nondegenerate city sizes, and observed urban systems. We introduce a unifying urban framework based on price-independent generalized linear (PIGL) preferences in which housing is a necessity. Non-homothetic housing demand generates income effects that cause urban costs to scale more strongly with population than wages, restoring a unique interior efficient city size under standard assumptions. The framework nests existing canonical models, remains tractable, and is consistent with key empirical regularities, including Zipf’s law and observed housing price elasticities. We also encapsulate a monocentric city model into our framework. |
| JEL: | R13 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34876 |
| By: | Bocchino, Andrea (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Povea, Erika (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how organized crime presence transforms local communities and human capital formation. Identifying these effects is challenging, as crime is endogenous to local conditions. We address this by leveraging the recent case of Ecuador, where criminal organizations from neighboring countries have rapidly established a new cocaine export route. This externally driven shock generated sharp increases in violent crime, allowing us to estimate causal effects using a difference-in-differences design based on proximity to areas prone to cocaine smuggling. Crime-affected areas experienced higher dropout rates among children at grades characterized by weak school attachment, the end of primary education and the first years of secondary school. While we do not find evidence of increased dropout among older students aged 15-18, individuals in this age group already out of education at the time of the crime surge exhibited a marked rise in risky behaviors, reflected in higher homicide victimization and earlier pregnancies. We also document severe economic disruption: household income fell by nearly 30%, driven mainly by a decline in informal employment. Declining earnings are a key mechanism linking crime exposure to school dropout. These findings show that the externalities of organized crime impose persistent social costs, deepening inequality and undermining human capital development. |
| Keywords: | education; children; human capital; organized crime; labor markets |
| JEL: | I25 J24 K42 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–02–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2026_002 |
| By: | Cattaneo, Maria (Swiss Coordination Centre for Research in Education); Wolter, Stefan (University of Bern); Zöllner, Thea (University of Bern) |
| Abstract: | Switzerland features strong socio-economic segregation and no formal school choice, making residential relocation the only channel through which parents can access preferred schools. Identifying how parents value school attributes is therefore essential but challenging, given that choices bundle multiple characteristics. We address this by conducting a discrete choice experiment with nearly 2, 700 parents with school-aged children, allowing us to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) for individual and combined school attributes. We find that a substantial minority of parents value academic quality so highly that their preferences are effectively price-insensitive. Among price-sensitive parents, academic quality remains central, but they also exhibit positive WTP for schools with fewer students with special educational needs and fewer non-native-speaking peers. Interaction effects are strong: WTP for reductions in special-needs peers is highest if the school is among the academically strongest. Accounting for attribute interactions further reveals marked heterogeneity, with parents clustering into seven distinct preference types. |
| Keywords: | discrete choice experiment, willingness to pay, special needs education, school quality |
| JEL: | C4 H4 I20 I24 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18393 |
| By: | Kemeny, Tom; Connor, Dylan Shane; Suss, Joel; Xie, Siqiao; Jang, Jiwon; Gu, Zhining |
| Abstract: | Despite extensive research on spatial inequality, the geography of wealth remains understudied. We develop a theoretical framework explaining why wealth's spatial distribution differs from income's and how local advantages create self-reinforcing dynamics. Using novel data tracking household net worth across 722 U.S. commuting zones from 1960-2020, we establish five stylized facts. Wealth is 60-70% more spatially concentrated than income, with patterns distinct from income and housing values. Post-1980 increases in between-place inequality reflect places changing positions rather than divergence. Within places, bottom 50% wealth shares declined nationwide. These patterns reveal feedback mechanisms compounding spatial advantages, highlighting welfare disparities exceeding income-focused research. |
| Date: | 2026–02–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:r4sg9_v1 |
| By: | Adachi, Daisuke |
| Abstract: | We present a dynamic, stochastic, and spatial model that incorporates disaster risk to study the role of local aggregate risks and moving frictions in the spatial economy. A disaster temporarily reduces regional productivity and suspends transportation networks. The model is applied to the analysis of Japan’s Tokai Trough Earthquake (TTE) and maglev train project. Estimation is based on sufficient statistics of future expected values by future migration flows and novel data on rail network disruption from the 2011 Tohoku earthquake. The TTE risk reduces welfare not only in vulnerable regions close to the expected epicenter but also in more distant regions, revealing the regional spillover effects of the disaster risk. The maglev train project increases welfare by 1.6\% on average, with effects that are larger in the north-east regions under the economy with TTE risk, highlighting the distributional effect under the disaster risk. |
| Date: | 2026–02–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qj9ka_v1 |
| By: | Cabrera-Hernández, Francisco (Centro de Investigación y Docencia Económicas); Dustan, Andrew (William and Mary); Osuna-Gomez, Daniel (Banco de México); Padilla-Romo, María (University of Tennessee) |
| Abstract: | We estimate the long-run effects of marginal admission to elite public high schools on students' labor supply in the context of Mexico City's centralized high school admission system. Using a regression discontinuity approach, we compare students whose placement exam scores are just above and just below the elite admission threshold. We find that five and ten years after the admission exam, marginally admitted students are less likely to be employed in the formal private sector, and, if employed, they earn lower wages. However, these employment and wage gaps close after 15 years. Moreover, we find that marginal admission to elite high schools leads to delayed entry into the formal labor market, and, at least in the short run, students in elite high schools seem to sort into lower-productivity firms and industries. |
| Keywords: | returns to education, human capital, education in developing countries, formal employment |
| JEL: | I25 I26 J24 O17 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18369 |
| By: | Alessandra Fogli (Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis Department of Economics); Veronica Guerrieri (University of Chicago Booth School of Business and NBER); Mark Ponder (NERA Economic Consulting); Marta Prato (Bocconi University) |
| Abstract: | We study the macroeconomic effects of neighborhood-specific policies in a general equilibrium model of a city with endogenous residential sorting and educational investment. A key feature of the model is the presence of endogenous local spillovers that depend on the distribution of families across neighborhoods. We analyze three policies: a housing-voucher policy inspired by the MTO program, which enables poor families to relocate to low-poverty neighborhoods; a place-based transfer (PBT) policy that provides monetary transfers to families in poor neighborhoods; and a place-based investment (PBI) policy that invests resources in local institutions, such as public schools, to directly enhance local spillovers. We find that the MTO policy generates substantial income gains for children of recipient families, but scaling up the program dampens these gains and induces large welfare losses for non-recipients. By contrast, the PBT policy delivers larger average welfare gains but is less effective in reducing inequality and segregation. Finally, the PBI policy produces smaller short-run effects but, over time, resolves the trade-off by raising average welfare while simultaneously reducing inequality, lowering segregation, and improving intergenerational mobility. |
| JEL: | E24 I2 O15 R2 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-23 |
| By: | Luis Perez Garcia |
| Abstract: | Growing concerns about housing affordability have prompted the adoption of rent control policies and renewed debates over their effectiveness. This paper provides the first empirical evaluation of the 2024 rent control policy implemented in Catalonia under Spain's new national housing law. To identify the causal effect of the policy on the rental market, I use municipality-level administrative data and implement several difference-in-differences strategies and event study designs. The results point to a reduction in tenancy agreements and a less robust decrease in rental price growth. While the findings highlight important short-term consequences of rent control, they also underscore the need for caution due to data limitations and limited robustness in some estimates. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.08631 |
| By: | Julia Manso |
| Abstract: | Sentiment towards the Chinese real estate sector has deteriorated following the introduction of financing constraints in 2020 with the ''three red lines." Forcing developers to restructure their debt, the policy triggered a cascade of financing troubles, defaults, and reduced housing demand, ultimately culminating in a prolonged real estate crisis. This paper utilizes a network approach in line with Demirer et al. (2018) and Diebold and Yilmaz (2014) to measure daily time-varying connectedness in the stock return volatilities of major Chinese real estate developers throughout the crisis. Focusing on spillover between companies as reflected by market perception, this paper examines how connectedness evolves over time across firms with different regional exposures and state-ownership statuses, filling a gap in the literature to elucidate where property demand and real estate firm trustworthiness have deteriorated most. An event-study analysis of four key moments of the crisis outlines distinct phases of market sentiment: with the introduction of the three red lines, connectedness primarily reflects shared exposure and a uniform shock to the market. Then, the early unrest surrounding Evergrande exposes strong regional differentiation, with firms concentrated in less developed regions receiving significant spillover. By one year into the crisis, previously stable regions receive higher levels of spillover, and there is evidence of a substitution effect towards private developers. Two years into the crisis, the market has much less homogeneity in effects across regions and state-ownership status: major shocks induce minimal network changes, reflecting how investors have already priced in their beliefs. This paper also offers one of the most extensive timelines of the Chinese real estate crisis to date, and a new R package, GephiForR, was created for the network visualization in this paper. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.19740 |
| By: | Laverde, Mariana (Boston College); Mykerezi, Elton (University of Minnesota); Sojourner, Aaron (Upjohn Institute for Employment Research); Sood, Aradhya (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies the relative importance of teacher-student match effects and general teacher effectiveness in producing student learning, and quantifies gains from alternative teacher assignments. We estimate a framework that separates these components, allowing match quality to vary with observable student characteristics and unobservable teacher-school factors. Using more than a decade of administrative data from a large urban district, we address endogenous sorting with quasi-random assignment variation induced by differences in driving time between teachers and schools. Match effects are similar in magnitude to general effectiveness. Teacher-acceptable reassignments can raise average test scores by about 0.13 standard deviations. |
| Keywords: | teacher effectiveness, teacher–student match effects, assignment and sorting, education production, labor markets in education |
| JEL: | I21 J45 I24 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18397 |
| By: | Stephen B. Billings; Mark Hoekstra; Gabriel Pons Rotger |
| Abstract: | While a growing literature has documented the effect of neighborhoods on children, there is little evidence on how neighborhoods impact adults. This study examines the impact of neighborhoods on high-needs families in Denmark who are quasi-randomly assigned to social housing in different neighborhoods. Results indicate a one standard deviation improvement in nearby neighborhood quality causes a 0.08 standard deviation improvement in labor market outcomes, and a 2.8 percent reduction in the likelihood of criminal conviction. Additional results indicate the labor market effects are most consistent with additional job referrals from nearby neighbors, rather than differences in local job availability. |
| JEL: | I38 K42 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34872 |
| By: | Testori Giulia (European Commission - JRC); Franklin Rachel; Saraceno Pier (European Commission - JRC); Pertoldi Martina; Perea Milla Fernandez Daniel; Stut Martijn; Dijkstra Lewis (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | "The EU is experiencing significant demographic transformations, including population decline, ageing, and uneven migration trends, with rural and remote regions facing the greatest challenges. This report provides policymakers, regional stakeholders, and EU-level representatives with a comprehensive resource to navigate these shifts. It offers in-depth data, a taxonomy and policy fiches to categorize demographic challenges and options to align policy responses with regional characteristics and demographic trends. This contribution highlights potential policies approaches in the fields of economics, infrastructure, environment and energy, housing, education, services and health, emphasizing the need for evidence-based, place-sensitive and targeted interventions. A novel thematic analysis of cohesion policy funds allocation contributing to address demographic change highlighting its critical role in addressing disparities ensuring that they do not deepen regional inequalities is proposed. ""Territories and demographic change"" moreover highlights how strategic planning, administrative capacity and peer learning are key to foster cross-regional collaboration and innovative solutions. A key message is that by integrating demographic considerations into territorial policies, the EU can transform demographic challenges into opportunities, promoting sustainable growth, resilience, and social cohesion across all regions." |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc143332 |
| By: | Sasso Simone (European Commission - JRC); Perpiña Castillo Carolina; Napolitano Lorenzo (European Commission - JRC) |
| Abstract: | This brief presents new JRC evidence on innovation performance across EU territories, with a focus on differences between urban, intermediate and rural regions. By building innovation indicators constructed and estimated for the first time at a sufficiently granular territorial level to capture differences between urban and rural regions on R&D investment, patents, trademarks and industrial designs, the analysis confirms urban–rural innovation gaps, while also revealing substantial heterogeneity not only between urban and rural regions, but also among rural regions themselves. While innovation activity remains highly concentrated in urban areas, the evidence also points to a limited number of rural regions that notably stand out in specific innovation dimensions, often linked to specialised industrial structures, public research capacity or proximity to urban innovation hubs. These findings highlight both the concentration of innovation activity in urban regions and the presence of pockets of strong innovation capacity in rural territories, pointing to the existence of innovation potential beyond urban centres and underscoring the importance of place-based policies that recognise territorial diversity and support more balanced innovation-driven competitiveness across EU regions |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ipt:iptwpa:jrc145387 |
| By: | Robert Reinhardt (Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne, Université Paris 1 Panthéo-Sorbonne) |
| Abstract: | Sub-Saharan African cities are among the fastest growing in the world but face significant climatic risks. This study investigates how the four most important weather shocks (floods, heat waves, drought, and storms) have shaped the physical expansion of 5, 721 cities in the region between 2000 and 2019. Using high-resolution remote sensing data combined with a panel of weather shocks observed over time, we find that floods, especially, reduce urban growth by 3-9%, most notably in western Africa. The effects are substantially amplified when floods follow heat waves, a common cooccurring combination. Droughts, when considered in the surrounding areas of cities, are associated with a 3% growth in urban areas. However, inverse effects are observed when treatment history is taken into account. Storms appear to accelerate the growth of wealthier towns, although the evidence is limited. Heatwaves alone show no clear effect. Our findings emphasize the need for integrated flood adaptation policies that take common co-occurring hazards equally into account. Furthermore, we emphasize the importance of considering both the historical context and the spatial dimension of the shock in empirical work |
| Keywords: | Climate change; Resilience; Urban growth; development |
| JEL: | P25 Q54 O44 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mse:cesdoc:26004 |
| By: | Patrinos, Harry (University of Arkansas, Fayetteville); Rivera-Olvera, Angelica (World Bank) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the returns to education in Arkansas — one of the last states to extend compulsory schooling — using ACS 2023 data and the 1987 Compulsory Schooling Law (CSL) reform as an instrument. OLS estimates imply returns of 9.5–10.4 percent per year of schooling. The CSL reform increased schooling among compliers by 0.67–0.73 years and yields IV returns of 10.4–11.7 percent, exceeding OLS estimates. The results indicate that those compelled to remain in school benefited most, consistent with global evidence on higher causal returns for disadvantaged students. |
| Keywords: | returns to education, human capital, wage differentials, earnings function, Arkansas, instrumental variables, compulsory schooling |
| JEL: | I26 J24 C26 J31 I21 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18364 |
| By: | Janine Boshoff; Stephen Machin; Matteo Sandi |
| Abstract: | Reducing crime starts with both school attendance and conflict resolution |
| Keywords: | Crime, Schools |
| Date: | 2026–02–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepcnp:726 |
| By: | Robert Reinhardt (CES - Centre d'économie de la Sorbonne - UP1 - Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | Sub-Saharan African cities are among the fastest growing in the world but face significant climatic risks. This study investigates how the four most important weather shocks (floods, heat waves, drought, and storms) have shaped the physical expansion of 5, 721 cities in the region between 2000 and 2019. Using high-resolution remote sensing data combined with a panel of weather shocks observed over time, we find that floods, especially, reduce urban growth by 3-9%, most notably in western Africa. The effects are substantially amplified when floods follow heat waves, a common cooccurring combination. Droughts, when considered in the surrounding areas of cities, are associated with a 3% growth in urban areas. However, inverse effects are observed when treatment history is taken into account. Storms appear to accelerate the growth of wealthier towns, although the evidence is limited. Heatwaves alone show no clear effect. Our findings emphasize the need for integrated flood adaptation policies that take common co-occurring hazards equally into account. Furthermore, we emphasize the importance of considering both the historical context and the spatial dimension of the shock in empirical work. |
| Keywords: | Development, Urban Growth, Resilience, Climate Change |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:cesptp:halshs-05510186 |
| By: | Tibor Szendrei; Nikolett V\'ag\'o; Katalin Varga |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a House Price-at-Risk framework to examine how housing subsidies, credit conditions, and supply factors influence the distribution of house price growth in Hungary. Using quantile regression with adaptive LASSO variable selection, we identify variables driving downside versus upside risks across multiple horizons. Financial stress dominates the lower tail at short horizons, while unemployment and affordability constraints become the primary drivers of downside risk at longer horizons. Housing subsidies exhibit pro-cyclical characteristics, concentrating significant positive effects on the upper quantiles while leaving the lower tail largely unaffected. Supply-side variables display horizon-dependent sign reversals, with construction permits exerting upward pressure on prices in the short run but moderating them as supply materialises. Uncertainty decomposition reveals persistent left-tail dominance across all horizons. These findings suggest that macroprudential frameworks should account for the distributional effects of housing subsidies, particularly their pro-cyclical influence on house price growth. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.18592 |
| By: | Schechtl, Manuel; Torche, Florencia |
| Abstract: | Recent research documents widening class gaps in intergenerational income mobility. Children from low-income families in more recent cohorts attain lower incomes than their counterparts in earlier cohorts, while no comparable decline is observed among children from high-income families. This study examines whether rising local wealth inequality contributes to the growing class divide in income mobility. To do so, it combines newly published estimates of local wealth inequality (GEOWEALTH-US) with cohort-based measures of upward mobility from Opportunity Insights. First-difference models reveal a consistent, negative association between rising local wealth inequality and declining upward income mobility for low-income children, but no such relationship for their high-income peers. Rising local wealth inequality explains about one-fifth of the increase in class gaps in economic mobility. |
| Date: | 2026–02–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:k6bny_v1 |
| By: | Jacob Goss; Daniel Mangrum |
| Abstract: | Since the 2018 Murphy v. NCAA decision, 38 states have legalized mobile sports betting. We study effects on betting and consumer credit, emphasizing spatial spillovers across state lines. Using consumer spending data and an extended two-way fixed effects framework that separately identifies direct and spillover effects, we find that legalization increases total sportsbook spending roughly tenfold and take-up by 3.1 percentage points. Counties in non-legal states within 15 miles of a legal state experience spillover spending equal to roughly 14 percent of the direct effect, with these spillovers declining to roughly zero by 60 miles. Using the New York Fed Consumer Credit Panel, we find that median credit scores decline by roughly 1 point and overall delinquency rises 0.3 percentage points from a 10.7 percent base, with spillover delinquency rising nearly 0.2 percentage points. Under-40 auto loan delinquency increases by half a percentage point and credit card delinquency by one percentage point, driving the overall increase in delinquency. Scaling the population-level delinquency effect by take-up yields implied delinquency increases of roughly 10 percentage points among induced bettors. We conclude with a policy simulation which reveals that spillovers create a fiscal asymmetry: states that have not legalized bear costs from cross-border betting without capturing tax revenue, giving high exposure states a stronger case for legalization. This incentive is increasing in states that have higher pre-legalization betting activity, population centers near legal states, and a younger population. Methodologically, we show that ignoring spatial spillovers can contribute to attenuated estimates and an under-count of the affected population. |
| Keywords: | sports betting; consumer credit; household debt; spatial spillovers; state taxation |
| JEL: | D14 H71 H73 L83 |
| Date: | 2026–02–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fednsr:102832 |
| By: | Dahab Aglan (University of Oxford; Sinop University) |
| Abstract: | After the end of their conflict with the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), the Iraqi government initiated a policy to close all camps across Iraq housing individuals affected by conflict and facilitate their return to their areas of origin. At these areas of origin, millions of internally displaced people (IDPs) were also displaced by the ISIL conflict and already living outside of the camps, meaning both groups now co-exist outside of the camps. Using a novel dataset on movements of camp residents from closed camps, I leverage district-level variation in the population shares of inflows from the closed camps to estimate their effects on the welfare of IDP households already living outside the camps. Fearing ISIL-related stigma and targeting, inflows from the camps may not disclose their movements, while others faced barriers to returning to their areas of origin and moved to other districts. To overcome the resulting endogeneity in the inflows from camps, I use an instrumental variables strategy which leverages policy-driven inflows from closed camps while being orthogonal to local district conditions. Contrary to the debate on the camp closures policy, I do not find evidence that overall, inflows from camps affect the welfare of IDP households already living outside of camps. The difference in characteristics between inflows from the camps and IDP households receiving them outside of the camps appears to primarily mitigate the effects of the policy. However, compared to maleheaded IDP households outside of camps, female-headed IDP households are more vulnerable to the inflows, highlighting the necessity of tailored policy interventions to address their specific welfare needs, especially their access to healthcare. |
| Date: | 2025–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1807 |
| By: | Kubitza, Christian; Damast, Dominik; Sørensen, Jakob Ahm |
| Abstract: | We document a novel transmission channel of monetary policy through the homeowners insurance market. On average, contractionary monetary policy shocks result in higher homeowners insurance prices. Using granular data on insurers’ balance sheets, we show that this effect is driven by the interaction of financial frictions and the interest rate sensitivity of investment portfolios. Specifically, rate hikes reduce the market value of insurers’ assets, tightening insurers’ balance sheet constraints and increasing their shadow cost of capital. These frictions in insurance supply amplify the effects of monetary policy on real estate and mortgage markets by making housing less affordable. We find that monetary policy shocks have a stronger impact on home prices and mortgage applications when local insurers are more sensitive to interest rates. This channel is particularly pronounced in areas where households face high climate risk exposure. Our findings highlight the role of insurance markets in amplifying macroeconomic shocks and the interconnections between homeowners insurance, residential real estate, and mortgage lending. JEL Classification: E5, E44, G21, G22, G5, R3 |
| Keywords: | financial frictions, housing markets, insurance, monetary policy |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263194 |
| By: | ZHANG, YUMING (Durham University) |
| Abstract: | This thesis examines how the co-evolution of physical (transport) and digital mobilities shapes inequality and wellbeing in rapidly urbanising, digitalising cities. As residents navigate increasingly complex mobility systems, understanding these dynamics is critical for equitable urban futures. It asks: (1) What causal pathways link evolving infrastructure–individual relationships to poverty risks and quality of life (QoL)? (2) How do transport and digital mobilities interact to produce these outcomes? (3) How do social ties mediate these effects across age groups? The thesis makes three contributions. Theoretically, it bridges micro–meso gaps by showing how socio-technical regime evolution influences individual outcomes through “mobility assemblages.” Methodologically, it advances fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) with a novel two-step design that connects individual mobility patterns to regime-level conditions, including a configurational propinquity index and accompanying visualisation software. Empirically, it provides original survey evidence from Wuhan, Guangzhou and Shenzhen (n=739; July–September 2022), demonstrating how transport–digital mobility interactions generate differentiated pathways to poverty risks and wellbeing. QoL is measured using EQ-5D-5L with Chinese value sets. Findings reveal multiple, non-linear, city- and population-specific pathways: exclusion is not universal to any single demographic, but emerges from configurations combining life-course stage, education, infrastructure trajectories and perceptions, socio-economic/social capital, and mobility skills. Younger groups tend to achieve good QoL via flexible multimodal strategies that avoid platform lock-ins, while older groups do so through sustained physical mobility combined with context-appropriate digital engagement. Across generations, social ties consistently support good QoL, and “city membership” is not required in configurations linking social ties to QoL—suggesting more generalisable social pathways across the three cities. Policy implications emphasise integrated mobility planning that treats transport and digital systems as interdependent, platform design that prevents lock-ins while remaining accessible across age groups, and interventions that mobilise social capital as a protective factor. Overall, the thesis offers a framework for analysing mobility–inequality dynamics in digitalising cities globally, with particular relevance for ageing societies undergoing technological transition. |
| Date: | 2026–02–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:7wym6_v1 |
| By: | Christa Deneault; Evan Riehl; Jian Zou |
| Abstract: | We use Texas administrative data to assess the long-standing claim that teacher certification exams discriminate against underrepresented minority (URM) candidates. In a regression discontinuity design, we find that failing a certification exam delays entry into teaching and costs the average candidate $10, 000 in forgone earnings. These costs fall disproportionately on URM candidates both because they are more likely to fail and because their earnings losses from failing are 50 percent larger on average. To examine whether these disparities are justified by racial/ethnic differences in teaching quality, we develop a new measure of disparate impact and estimate it using a policy change that increased the difficulty of Texas' elementary certification exam. The harder exam reduced the URM share of new teachers but had no significant benefits for teaching quality or student achievement. Taken together, our findings show that certification exams have a disparate impact in the sense that they impose much larger economic costs on URM teaching candidates than on white candidates with similar potential teaching quality. |
| JEL: | I24 J44 J71 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34860 |
| By: | Breuer, Matthias; Dong, Qingkai |
| Abstract: | We study how federal information-collection requirements affect public infrastructure spending of local governments. Exploiting the introduction and revision of the federal survey on highway infrastructure, we find that county roads that are randomly sampled by the survey attract more local government spending. The increased spending is concentrated in capital outlays for road improvements and is somewhat pronounced for roads in poor condition. The spending seems successful in expanding the county road network and usage and reducing fatalities. Collectively, our evidence suggests that federal information-collection efforts shape the allocation of resources by providing information on road segments in need of resources but also by directing attention and resources to roads that happen to be sampled, irrespective of their need for resources. |
| Keywords: | Census, Information Collection, Measurement, Infrastructure, GovernmentSpending, Resource Allocation |
| JEL: | H41 H54 H70 L15 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:cbscwp:337493 |
| By: | Baris Arat; Hasan Fehmi Ates; Emre Sefer |
| Abstract: | Reliable real estate price indicators are typically published at city level and low frequency, limiting their use for neighborhood-scale monitoring and long-horizon planning. We study whether sub-city price indices can be forecasted at weekly frequency by combining physical development signals from satellite radar with market narratives from news text. Using over 350, 000 transactions from Dubai Land Department (2015-2025), we construct weekly price indices for 19 sub-city regions and evaluate forecasts from 2 to 34 weeks ahead. Our framework fuses regional transaction history with Sentinel-1 SAR backscatter, news sentiment combining lexical tone and semantic embeddings, and macroeconomic context. Results are strongly horizon dependent: at horizons up to 10 weeks, price history alone matches multimodal configurations, but beyond 14 weeks sentiment and SAR become critical. At long horizons (26-34 weeks), the full multimodal model reduces mean absolute error from 4.48 to 2.93 (35% reduction), with gains statistically significant across regions. Nonparametric learners consistently outperform deep architectures in this data regime. These findings establish benchmarks for weekly sub-city index forecasting and demonstrate that remote sensing and news sentiment materially improve predictability at strategically relevant horizons. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2602.18572 |