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on Urban Economics and Policy |
| By: | Anna Piil Damm; Ahmad Hassani; Anil Kumar; Juan Carlos Parra-Alvarez |
| Abstract: | To estimate the causal effect of immigration flows on housing market variables in the medium-run, we address the key problem of immigrant sorting by exploiting exogenous variation from push-factor migration and a unique institutional setting that allocates refugee immigrants to municipalities on a quasi-random basis. Economic theory predicts that immigrant influx will increase demand for residential space, increasing house rents and prices as well as residential construction at the aggregate level, but will have ambiguous effects at the neighborhood level in case of native flight. We find a large positive impact on house rents and prices and little evidence of native flight at the municipal level. At the neighborhood level, we also find a positive impact on house rents and prices, albeit more modest, as well as evidence of native flight. We further provide evidence of inelastic supply. Our findings support economic policies that increase housing supply elasticities and re-distribute part of the gains from immigration to groups that bear the burden from immigration and thereby decrease political opposition to immigration. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, Residential real estate, Re-distribution, Inequality, Quasi-random allocation of refugee immigrants, Shift-share instruments |
| JEL: | J61 R31 H71 I38 |
| Date: | 2025–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2578 |
| By: | Maria A. Cattaneo; Stefan Wolter; Thea Zöllner |
| Abstract: | Switzerland features strong socio-economic segregation and no formal school choice, making residential relocation the only channel through which parents can access preferred schools. Identifying how parents value school attributes is therefore essential but challenging, given that choices bundle multiple characteristics. We address this by conducting a discrete choice experiment with nearly 2, 700 parents with school-aged children, allowing us to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) for individual and combined school attributes. We find that a substantial minority of parents value academic quality so highly that their preferences are effectively price-insensitive. Among price-sensitive parents, academic quality remains central, but they also exhibit positive WTP for schools with fewer students with special educational needs and fewer non-native-speaking peers. Interaction effects are strong: WTP for reductions in special-needs peers is highest if the school is among the academically strongest. Accounting for attribute interactions further reveals marked heterogeneity, with parents clustering into seven distinct preference types. |
| Keywords: | Discrete choice experiment, willingness to pay, special needs education, school quality |
| JEL: | C4 H4 I20 I24 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26018 |
| By: | Gabriele Lucchetti |
| Abstract: | I document that the city-size earnings premium is smaller for immigrants than for natives, driven by low-income-country immigrants, who sort less into cognitive occupations in larger cities. I interpret these facts through a spatial equilibrium model with heterogeneous human capital, amenities, and local earnings wedges. Local earnings wedges are the main channel behind the immigrant-native gap in the city-size earnings premium. Removing all immigrant-native differences closes 62 percent of the immigrant-native earnings gap but widens the spatial earnings gap by 20 percent. Expanding college immigration narrows the workers' earnings gap without widening the spatial earnings gap. |
| Keywords: | Immigrant Earnings Gap, City-Size Earnings Premium, Spatial Equilibrium, Occupational Sorting, Human Capital |
| JEL: | F22 J24 J31 J61 R13 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26082 |
| By: | Lopez-Morales, Ernesto |
| Abstract: | During the 2010s, Chile experienced significant housing overvaluation and unaffordability. This chapter challenges the prevailing belief that land costs for developers are the primary cause of this issue. This study analyzes official data from Santiago, the capital city, showing that, on average, land costs for developers did not increase but slightly decreased between 2010 and 2019 due to fewer public restrictions on residential density. This indicates that land costs alone cannot explain the substantial rise in housing prices. This study investigates the impact of other economic and political factors on housing overappreciation, finding a surge in housing demand due to immigration and a shortage of new housing constructed since 2000 as a more probable cause. This supply shortage led to higher housing prices and rents, while housing demand became increasingly inelastic to absorb them. This study explores potential reasons for the lack of new housing construction and highlights the possibility of developers’ collusion, being a shortcoming of Chile’s neoliberal housing market. Finally, this study offers suggestions for improving market competitiveness, boosting new housing construction, and thus improving housing affordability in Chile. |
| Date: | 2026–02–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:tbe9c_v1 |
| By: | Horng Chern Wong; Dennis Novy; Carlo Perroni; Natalie Chen |
| Abstract: | Using French micro-data, we show that rapid structural transformation in densely populated cities is driven by the expansion of large tradable services firms and the departure of large manufacturing firms. This reallocation is accompanied by sharply rising house prices but without a compensating increase in urban nominal wages. Using a quantitative spatial equilibrium model, we highlight the role that local consumption services play in reconciling these facts. We show that structural change leads to an expansion of local services varieties, which improves amenities and moderates urban wage growth despite rising house prices. By containing labor costs, this mechanism allows large, urban-centered tradable services firms to capitalize on their fast productivity growth. As a result, the forces underlying urban-biased structural change have facilitated the rise of superstar services firms and have increased the urban-rural welfare gap, even though conventional statistics point in the opposite direction. |
| Keywords: | Agglomeration, Cities, House Prices, Services, Sorting, Structural Change |
| JEL: | R11 R12 R30 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26006 |
| By: | Samuel Berlinski; Michele Giannola; Alessandro Toppeta |
| Abstract: | We study the relative effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and interaction of family- and school-based learning interventions using a randomized controlled trial in Colombia that assigns children to a parental engagement program, a teacher professional development program, both, or a control group. Both interventions are grounded in a child-centered learning approach that emphasizes active engagement and the progression from informal to formal mathematical understanding. Each intervention independently generates sizable and statistically similar gains in early numeracy (0.17σ and 0.20σ). Combining them produces no additional learning gains, suggesting that the two interventions act as substitutes over the time horizon and skill domain we study. When benefits accruing to future cohorts are taken into account, the teacher development program becomes at least as cost-effective as, and potentially more cost-effective than, the parental engagement intervention. Our results suggest that, in this setting, strategically concentrating resources on a single binding constraint - either at home or in school - maximizes the short-run learning gains per dollar spent. |
| Keywords: | Families, Schools, Human Capital, Numeracy |
| JEL: | A2 H52 I25 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26085 |
| By: | Augusto Ospital |
| Abstract: | In the past two decades, about half of the new homes in the United States were built in areas at risk of natural hazards. Why is residential development exposed to such risk? I argue that regulated property-insurance pricing and land-use regulations contribute to this pattern. I study this mechanism in the metropolitan area of San Diego, California, where insurance rules compress the premium gradient with respect to wildfire risk and safer locations are highly regulated and built out. Using detailed spatial data on zoning, wildfire risk, housing, commuting, and premiums, I estimate a quantitative urban model of household location choice, housing supply, and insurance supply. The estimates imply that wildfire premiums are 10.5% below actuarially fair pricing, that the average amenity cost of current wildfire risk is equivalent to 3.5% of income, and that the total present-value welfare cost of current wildfire risk, including property damages, is $17.5 billion. This aggregate cost masks substantial incidence heterogeneity, as owners of safe land benefit from equilibrium scarcity effects. Counterfactuals show that housing supply and insurance pricing interact in determining incidence. In the benchmark specification, targeted housing reforms leave the aggregate effect of cost-based insurance nearly unchanged while attenuating its burden on workers: relative to baseline, workers' wildfire costs rise by 2.3% under insurance reform alone, but fall by 0.9% under the joint reform. |
| Keywords: | climate, environment, natural disasters, wildfires, spatial, urban, land-use regulation, zoning |
| JEL: | O18 Q54 Q56 R23 R31 R52 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12613 |
| By: | Augusto Ospital (LMU Munich) |
| Abstract: | In the past two decades, about half of the new homes in the United States were built in areas at risk of natural hazards. Why is residential development exposed to such risk? I argue that regulated property-insurance pricing and land-use regulations contribute to this pattern. I study this mechanism in the metropolitan area of San Diego, California, where insurance rules compress the premium gradient with respect to wildfire risk and safer locations are highly regulated and built out. Using detailed spatial data on zoning, wildfire risk, housing, commuting, and premiums, I estimate a quantitative urban model of household location choice, housing supply, and insurance supply. The estimates imply that wildfire premiums are 10.5% below actuarially fair pricing, that the average amenity cost of current wildfire risk is equivalent to 3.5% of income, and that the total present-value welfare cost of current wildfire risk, including property damages, is $17.5 billion. This aggregate cost masks substantial incidence heterogeneity, as owners of safe land benefit from equilibrium scarcity effects. Counterfactuals show that housing supply and insurance pricing interact in determining incidence. In the benchmark specification, targeted housing reforms leave the aggregate effect of cost-based insurance nearly unchanged while attenuating its burden on workers: relative to baseline, workers' wildfire costs rise by 2.3% under insurance reform alone, but fall by 0.9% under the joint reform. |
| Keywords: | climate; environment; natural disasters; wildfires; spatial; urban; land-use regulation; zoning; |
| JEL: | O18 Q54 Q56 R23 R31 R52 |
| Date: | 2026–04–16 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rco:dpaper:571 |
| By: | Haifang Huang (University of Alberta); John Helliwell (University of British Columbia) |
| Abstract: | Using the Canadian sample of the Gallup World Poll, we document large declines in subjective well-being (SWB) among young adults (20–34), measured by the Cantril life ladder, alongside rising food and shelter insecurity, worsening perceptions of local housing affordability and job climate, and deteriorating living standards. Oaxaca-type decompositions show that these economic stressors account for nearly half of young adults’ decline in their average Cantril life evaluation from the 2005-14 baseline period to the 2023-25 cost-of-living crisis, and 38-58%, depending on specifications, of the widening in the evaluation gap between the youngest (20–34) and oldest (65+) groups. <p> Housing stands out. Dissatisfaction with local housing affordability is the biggest contributing factor among young adults, but is less important for older groups. Analysis using Teranet House Price Index (HPI) shows that rises in local house prices worsen affordability perceptions across all age groups; they also predict lower life evaluations among young adults, but not among seniors.<p> In contrast, changes in eight non-economic domain measures (covering self-reported health, social support, trust, perceived respect, and prosocial activity) contribute little to young adults’ life-evaluation decline. We interpret the evidence as indicating that the happiness crisis among young Canadians is, to a large degree, an economic crisis. |
| Keywords: | subjective well-being; generation; demographics |
| JEL: | E24 H23 J64 J68 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:albaec:022456 |
| By: | Yajna Govind; Jack Melbourne; Sara Signorelli; Edith Zink |
| Abstract: | Policies targeting disadvantaged areas aim to improve their conditions, but the labels they impose carry consequences of their own. In this paper, we examine Denmark's Ghetto Plan, one of the first recent place-based policies explicitly targeting migrant populations. Under this policy, certain public housing deemed problematic were officially designated as "ghettos", with minimal additional implications. Using rich administrative data and a Difference-in-Differences approach, we show that the policy backfired, worsening spatial inequality through compositional shifts driven by native avoidance. In addition, the policy was particularly detrimental to exposed natives, who accepted a 4% annual income loss to leave stigmatized areas. |
| Keywords: | residential segregation, place-based policies, migration, neighborhood effects |
| JEL: | J15 J18 R23 R28 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2583 |
| By: | Tobias Seidel; Frederic Kluser; Maximilian von Ehrlich |
| Abstract: | This paper leverages quasi-experimental variation from store openings and 1.5 billion grocery transactions to causally estimate the distance elasticity of grocery expenditures (−1.47) and the spatial extent of local consumption areas (approximately 16 minutes of car travel time). We embed these estimates in a nested CES demand framework to construct a granular index of local market access for nearly 350, 000 grid cells (100×100m) across Switzerland. Urban areas enjoy nearly twice the consumption access of rural areas, with the 90th-to-10th percentile ratio nationally exceeding four. Compensating variation calculations show that low-income and elderly households would benefit disproportionately from improved local market access. Finally, we document that market access varies predominantly between locations, whereas income differs mostly within locations—the two dimensions are nearly orthogonal. This suggests that place-based retail policies and income-based transfers address fundamentally different dimensions of spatial inequality and should be regarded as complements. |
| Keywords: | economic geography, consumption access, consumption inequality |
| JEL: | R1 R2 L14 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12616 |
| By: | Anna Pestova; Alexander Popov |
| Abstract: | We document persistent human capital scarring among the children of homeowners who reached college age during the 2008–2011 housing bust. Negative shocks to parental housing wealth substantially reduced college attendance among first-year college-age children of homeowners, relative to their counterparts from renter households. In regions experiencing the largest declines in housing wealth, the educational gap between the offspring of homeowners and renters persisted for at least a decade. The shortfall in human capital accumulation translated into lower long-run employability, particularly in education-intensive sectors, and resulted in lower earnings among the affected cohort. |
| Keywords: | Homeownership, housing wealth, human capital, housing boom-bust episodes |
| JEL: | I24 E32 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cer:papers:wp817 |
| By: | Elisa Giannone; Yuhei Miyauchi; Nuno Paixao; Xinle Pang; Yuta Suzuki |
| Abstract: | How do depopulation and population aging evolve differently across regions within a country, and what are their implications for aggregate economic activity and regional inequality? Using spatially disaggregated data from Japan over the past several decades, we show that rural areas have experienced significantly faster depopulation and aging than urban areas, driven by low fertility and sustained out-migration of young cohorts. Regions undergoing these trends face declining local amenities and rising per-capita public service costs. To study the future evolution and economic consequences of these dynamics, we develop and calibrate a dynamic life-cycle spatial general equilibrium model. The model predicts widening geographic disparities in depopulation, aging, and economic activity in the coming centuries. While subsidies to declining regions can lower regional inequality, they come at the cost of lower aggregate efficiency and higher public service expenditures. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:upf:upfgen:1944 |
| By: | Gustavo Castro (Departament of Economics, University of S˜ao Paulo, Brazil); Carlos Azzoni (Departament of Economics, University of S˜ao Paulo, Brazil); André Chagas (Departament of Economics, University of S˜ao Paulo, Brazil) |
| Abstract: | Across many urban systems, cities continue to expand physically even as their populations decline. This spatial-demographic mismatch, which we refer to as shrinking but sprawling cities, raises important questions about the economic consequences of urban expansion under demographic contraction. Using data for more than 5, 500 Brazilian municipalities between 2010 and 2022, we estimate the causal impact of urban sprawl on labor productivity in municipalities experiencing population decline. To address endogeneity, we implement a two-stage least squares strategy that instruments population shrinkage using a SPEI-based shift-share design and urban sprawl using spatial diffusion in urban expansion across neighboring municipalities. We find that urban sprawl significantly reduces labor productivity growth in municipalities experiencing population decline. The negative interaction between shrinkage and sprawl is robust across sectors and to multiple robustness checks. These findings suggest that spatial expansion under demographic contraction weakens agglomeration forces and generates significant productivity losses in urban systems. |
| Keywords: | Urban Shrinkage; Urban Sprawl; Labor Productivity |
| JEL: | R11 O18 C26 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nereus:022452 |
| By: | Ahmet Gulek |
| Abstract: | I study how local immigration shocks impact labor markets and firms across the economy through production networks. Using Turkey's Syrian refugee crisis and firm-level trade network data, I show that firms buying from host regions demand more labor, while those selling to host regions increase sales. These spillovers depend critically on network centrality: a 1% labor supply increase in Istanbul decreases local real wages by 0.56% while increasing non-host wages by 0.38%. For non-central regions, identical shocks reduce local wages by 1% with negligible spillovers. Network position thus determines whether immigration only lowers local wages or also generates economy-wide gains. |
| Keywords: | Immigration, trade, production network |
| JEL: | F16 F22 J15 J23 J61 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:25109 |
| By: | Mette Foged; Jens Hainmueller; Mikkel Stahlschmidt; Edith Zink |
| Abstract: | Sudden displacement crises strain reception systems and require rapid expansion of refugee accommodation beyond conventional channels. We study Denmark's 2022 reception of Ukrainian refugees and provide the first population-level analysis of two scalable strategies that expanded capacity outside standard public refugee housing: public "pop-up" shelters and private hosting in residents' homes. Using linked administrative registers covering the full arriving population, combined with a representative refugee survey, we classify each refugee's initial accommodation from address and co-residence records and track outcomes for 18 months. The majority of arrivals was absorbed in pop-up shelters (37%) and private hosting (43%). Both proved durable, with mean stays of about seven months and no indication that private hosting was less stable. Exploiting quasi-random assignment generated by within-municipality capacity and time constraints, we estimate effects of accommodation type while conditioning on locality, arrival timing, and sociodemographics. Relative to conventional public housing, private hosting led to higher early employment, higher earnings, persistently lower public-transfer receipt, and improved psychological well-being. Pop-up housing performed at least as well on labor-market outcomes and showed modest gains in social integration. By holding locality constant, we show that how refugees are housed within municipalities has an independent, first-order effect on integration-distinct from the well-studied importance of where they are placed. These findings highlight the potential for civic-led accommodation to complement public systems during displacement shocks and shape long-term refugee trajectories. |
| Keywords: | Refugees; integration; public policy; housing provision |
| JEL: | J15 J61 J68 R31 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:25154 |
| By: | James Feigenbaum; Yi-Ju Hung; Marco Tabellini; Monia Tomasella |
| Abstract: | We study the effects of immigration restrictions on the intergenerational mobility of US-born men in the United States. We link US-born sons observed in 1900, 1920, and 1940 full-count Censuses to their fathers, and construct a measure of county-level exposure to the 1920s immigration acts, which sharply curtailed immigration from Southern and Eastern Europe. Exploiting this policy-induced variation, we find that the quotas reduced intergenerational mobility among US-born white men, but had no adverse effect for Black men. Among whites, losses were smaller for sons of richer fathers, who were more likely to migrate away from highly exposed areas. Evidence from the 1940 Census indicates that exposed white men were less likely to be employed and earned lower wages in adulthood, consistent with both occupational downgrading and reduced productivity within occupations. We show that these effects operated through both reduced immigrant-native complementarities and incomplete substitution from unrestricted migration, while human capital investment can explain at most only a modest part of the total effect. |
| Keywords: | Immigration; immigration restrictions; intergenerational mobility |
| JEL: | J15 J62 K37 N32 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26037 |
| By: | Arnab K. Basu; Nancy H. Chau; Gary Lin |
| Abstract: | Why has internal migration remained low, even as advances in communication technologies have reduced information frictions in relocation decisions? This paper develops and estimates a spatial model of mobility that incorporates status quo bias in locational preferences, multilateral search frictions, and comoving regional unemployment. Using historical proxies for search frictions, we identify and recover county-level estimates of status quo bias across the United States. Status quo bias is spatially heterogeneous and highest in states containing large urban job centers. Translating these estimates into expected-utility, geographic-distance, and state-border equivalents indicates that variation in status quo bias generates migration frictions comparable to large geographic and institutional barriers. Status quo bias also exhibits strong persistence over time, a robust relationship to migration dynamics, and associations with a range of non-wage individual- and community-level correlates of locational preferences (e.g., housing, climate, and religious and political orientations). These patterns suggest that status quo bias partly reflects place-based preferences shaped by individuals' residential histories. |
| Keywords: | Migration gravity, status quo bias, and job search networks |
| JEL: | J61 J64 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26104 |
| By: | Tenaw, Dagmawe (Department of Economics and Management “Marco Fanno”, University of Padova, Italy); Jamasb, Tooraj (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School); Llorca , Manuel (Department of Economics, Copenhagen Business School) |
| Abstract: | Electrification is a key driver of human welfare, yet its role on internal migration remains underexplored. This paper studies how reliable electrification influences migration dynamics in Ethiopia, a rapidly electrifying country with sizable internal mobility, by combining a spatial perspective with analysis of local economic effects. We first adopt an electrification-augmented gravity model of internal migration and explore the origin vs destination effects of regional electrification. We then complement this approach with a community-level analysis to uncover underlying mechanisms. Leveraging different rich administrative surveys combined with satellite-based nighttime luminosity, we find that electrification at destinations acts as a strong pull factor, attracting both rural- and urban-origin migrants. In contrast, the effect of origin electrification is non-linear, with its migration-inducing effect dominating and operating mainly through urban-directed flows. The community-level analysis reinforces the gravity-based findings, showing that reliable electricity is strongly associated with a higher (lower) likelihood of a community becoming a net receiver (sender) of migrants and experiencing higher inward (outward) labor mobility. Improved access to public services and local employment sources are the main channels at play. Overall, we provide policy-relevant insights into the role of reliable electrification in shaping demographic dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Gravity model; Migration; Labor mobility; Reliable electricity; Nighttime luminosity |
| JEL: | J61 O18 Q40 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–04–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:cbsnow:2026_008 |
| By: | Nicolás Acevedo Rebolledo; Gonzalo Almeyda Torres; David Granada Donato; María Lombardi; Victoria Oubiña; Pablo Zoido Lobaton |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates a randomized remote tutoring program implemented in Paraguay, targeting 1, 650 students in grades four through six with low baseline performance in Spanish language. The intervention provided two weekly 30-minute one-on-one tutoring sessions over the phone for eight weeks, using a differentiated instruction model tailored to students’ initial diagnostic assessments. Treated students showed significant learning gains: those offered tutoring scored 0.11 standard deviations higher onstandardizedlanguagetests comparedtocontrols. Effectswereconsistent across sociodemographicsubgroupsandbaselineachievementlevels. Leveraging therandomassignmentofstudentstotutors, weestimateindividualtutorvalueadded, andfindthattutoreffectsaccountfor 15%ofthevariation instudent outcomes. Tutors in the top quintile have an average value added of 0.38 standard deviations, almost four timestheoveralleffectoftheprogram, underscoringtheimportanceofindividual tutor effectiveness in scaling tutoring interventions successfully. |
| Keywords: | Educación, Desarrollo de Habilidades, Rendimiento de la Educación, Education, Skills Development, Educational Performance |
| JEL: | I20 I24 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:udt:wpgobi:wp_gob_2026_02 |
| By: | Å tÄ›pán Mikula; Mariola Pytliková |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how improvements in air quality affect migration behavior. We exploit a natural experiment in the Czech Republic, where rapid desulfurization of coal-fired power plants in the 1990s led to a sharp reduction in SO2 pollution - from extremely high levels to below EU/WHO limits - without directly impacting economic activity. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that cleaner air reduced emigration from previously heavily polluted municipalities by 24% and increased net migration by 78%, with effects strongest in the most polluted areas. The impact was particularly pronounced among highly educated individuals. Migration responses were strongest in municipalities with weaker social capital and fewer public amenities, suggesting that environmental improvements matter most where other local advantages are limited. In contrast, anti-emigration monetary subsidies-such as those offered during the socialist period in polluted areas-had no effect. Overall, our findings highlight the potential of environmental policies to support re-population and regional revitalization-especially when combined with investments in infrastructure and public services. |
| Keywords: | Air quality; Migration; Natural experiment |
| JEL: | J61 Q53 R23 O3 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2581 |
| By: | Jörg Claussen; David Streich; Katerina Vlieg; Steffen Zetzmann |
| Abstract: | We study a German policy intervention that shifted the statutory incidence of real estate agent commissions from buyers to sellers. Liability-side equivalence predicts no effect on economic incidence as sellers are expected to pass on the additional burden through higher prices. We use real estate listings and transactions and exploit object-level susceptibility to the intervention in a difference-in-differences analysis. Contrary to economic theory, prices do not increase and sellers bear the burden of the intervention. Consistent with a lack of pass-through, sellers reduce demand for brokerage, especially when brokers are expensive and offer little benefit. Taken together, our results suggest that the intervention was effective at relieving homebuyers. |
| Keywords: | real estate agent commissions, intermediary fees, real estate brokerage, liability-side equivalence, housing policy |
| JEL: | R31 R38 H22 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12618 |
| By: | Koller, Julian; Stefanova, Stefani |
| Abstract: | We propose a novel spatial IV approach to estimate inter-regional employment spillovers from local trade shocks and apply it to the surge of Chinese import competition in the U.S. We find strong spillovers at the local level that substantially reshape the geography of the shock's employment burden. Our results further suggest that these indirect effects propagate through input-output linkages rather than labor mobility. Moreover, we show that our estimates rationalize the roughly 30 percent gap between Autor et al. (2013) and the structural follow-up literature in the aggregate U.S. manufacturing employment decline attributed to Chinese import competition. |
| Keywords: | Trade Shocks, Local Labor Markets, Import Competition |
| JEL: | F10 F14 F16 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128159 |
| By: | Olivia Bordeu; Gustavo González; Marcos Sorá |
| Abstract: | We study how banking market structure and branch networks shape the spatial mobility of capital. Using administrative loan-level data from Chile, we show that bank-level deposit shocks lead receiving banks to increase lending and lower interest rates relative to other banks. Interest rate reductions are concentrated in cities where the bank has a small market share, consistent with local market power. We develop and estimate a quantitative spatial model with multi-city banks, oligopolistic local credit markets and frictions in interbank lending. These channels lead to spatial dispersion in interest rates and the marginal productivity of physical capital, reducing GDP. Interbank frictions reduce steady-state GDP by 0.04%, while spatial variation in loan markups reduces GDP by 0.5%. Bank mergers improve financial integration between cities but reduce competition, generating heterogeneous welfare effects that depend on the merging banks’ geographic overlap. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:chb:bcchwp:1066 |
| By: | Moritz Kuhn; Iourii Manovskii; Xincheng Qiu |
| Abstract: | Spatial differences in labor market performance are large and highly persistent. Using data from the United States, Germany, and the United Kingdom, we document striking similarities across these countries in the spatial differences in unemployment, vacancies, and vacancy filling, job finding, and separation rates. The novel facts on the geography of vacancies and vacancy filling are instrumental in guiding and disciplining the development of a theory of local labor market performance. We find that a spatial version of a Diamond-Mortensen-Pissarides model with endogenous separations and on-the-job search quantitatively accounts for all the documented empirical regularities. The model also quantitatively rationalizes why differences in job-separation rates have primary importance in inducing differences in unemployment across space while changes in the job-finding rate are the main driver in unemployment fluctuations over the business cycle. |
| Keywords: | Local Labor Markets, Unemployment, Vacancies, Search and Matching |
| JEL: | J63 J64 E24 E32 R13 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:2596 |
| By: | Marguerite Obolensky; Marco Tabellini; Charles A. Taylor |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the concept of "climate matching'' in migration-the idea that migrants seek out destinations with familiar climates-and studies its implications for the geography of economic activity in the United States. We document that temperature distance between origin and destination predicts the distribution of migrants across U.S. counties, for both internal and international migration in the historical (1850-1940) and modern (1970-2019) periods. These patterns cannot be explained by the spatial correlation of climate or the persistence of ethnic networks, and instead reflect two mechanisms: the transferability of climate-specific skills and climate as an amenity. We then study the economic consequences of climate mismatch during 1880-1920, a period of rapid growth and structural transformation. Using an instrumental variable strategy that interacts origin-country inflow shocks with the timing of county railroad access, we find that mismatch reduced agricultural productivity and accelerated the exit from farming. However, manufacturing output did not rise. Instead, manufacturing productivity declined and population growth was lower in counties with higher climate mismatch. These effects left a lasting imprint: a 1°C increase in 1880--1920 mismatch is associated with 2.5% lower per capita income in 1940. |
| Keywords: | Migration, climate, climate matching, economic geography |
| JEL: | J15 J61 N31 N32 Q54 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:crm:wpaper:26031 |
| By: | Francesco Vidoli (Department of Economics, Society & Politics, Università di Urbino Carlo Bo); ; |
| Abstract: | Standard policy evaluation methods typically assume that treatment effects are homogeneous within fixed administrative units. However, the true policy relevant boundaries are typically unknown to the researcher, as latent territorial characteristics, such as institutional quality or local economic structure, generate unobserved spatial heterogeneity that does not align with administrative borders. To address this challenge, we propose a novel unsupervised learning algorithm that endogenously identifies geographic regimes heterogeneous in terms of causal impact. Unlike existing clustering methods that group units based on geometric density or outcome similarity, our approach partitions spatial units specifically on the basis of their causal response to treatment. By explicitly maximizing treatment effect variance subject to spatial coherence, we identify where policies have differential impacts, recovering latent economic boundaries while maintaining identification requirements. We validate the estimator through Monte Carlo simulations, demonstrating its robustness in recovering latent economic structures even in high-noise environments. Finally, we apply the method to analyse the local labour market effects of the 2001 Chinese import competition shock in the United States, revealing distinct latent spatial regimes of industrial resilience that cut across state lines. |
| Keywords: | Difference-in-Differences, Spatial Heterogeneity, Treatment Effect Heterogeneity, Clustering Algorithms, Place-Based Policies, Causal Inference |
| JEL: | C21 C23 H40 R10 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:urb:wpaper:26_01 |