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on Urban Economics and Policy |
| By: | Guillermo Prieto-Viertel; Carsten K\"allner; Elma Dervic; Ola Ali; Andrea Vismara; Rafael Prieto-Curiel |
| Abstract: | Political discourse attributes the pressure on European welfare systems to foreign nationals. Yet projections of service demand rarely disaggregate service demand by citizenship status. We develop a structural demographic model and project healthcare, education, and housing demand in Austria through 2050, disaggregated by citizenship status and regions across migration scenarios. We find that migration, ageing, and fertility shape each sector differently. In healthcare, the ageing of Austrian nationals contributes 4.7 times more to demand growth than immigration, with the most acute pressures in rural, low-migration regions. In housing, migration accounts for the entire net growth in demand, concentrated in metropolitan hubs. In education, aggregate demand contracts regardless of migration assumptions, whereas future needs are driven more by the births of foreigners in Austria than by new arrivals. Foreign nationals consume services in proportion to their demographic weight, with deviations explained by age structure rather than over-utilisation. These results show that the drivers of service demand are sector-specific: migration restrictions could ease housing pressure, but would not address ageing-driven healthcare demand and may accelerate contraction in the education system. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.26525 |
| By: | Ronan Lyons (Department of Economics, Trinity College Dublin); Allison Shertzer (Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia); Rowena Gray (UC Merced) |
| Abstract: | The Rent of Primary Residence (RoPR) series constructed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) implies that nominal rental prices increased by just 2.6% per year from 1914 to 2006 while overall prices grew by 3.3%. We show that this 'falling real rents' puzzle can be explained by the evolving treatment of shelter in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). In this paper we construct a new, methodologically consistent shelter price series using the Historical Housing Prices (HHP) Project rental index. We also construct a revised set of shelter weights going back to 1914 and combine them with the price series to create an alternate CPI that applies the owners' equivalent rent (OER) concept of shelter consistently across time. The HHP shelter price series increases by a factor of 28.4 (compared with the 10.7 increase in RoPR) and lifts average CPI growth from 3.3% to 3.6% per year. The revised series eliminates the long‐run decline in real rents in the CPI and provides a new benchmark for assessing trends in the cost of living and real income in the U.S. over the twentieth century. |
| Keywords: | Housing prices; rental indices; CPI; housing markets; cost of living |
| JEL: | E31 R3 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcd:tcduee:tep0526 |
| By: | Wiebe, Michael |
| Abstract: | Moretti (2021a, b) (henceforth M21) studies agglomeration effects for innovation, testing whether the size of technology clusters causes patenting. Agglomeration effects are important for understanding technological progress (Kerr and Robert-Nicoud, 2020), and are affected by constraints on housing supply (Duranton and Puga, 2020). Using US data on patents filed between 1971 and 2007 (Zucker and Darby, 2014), M21 presents multiple lines of evidence supporting a causal effect of cluster size on patenting. The baseline results are from linear regressions of patents on cluster size, controlling for an extensive set of fixed effects (including inventor effects). The main finding is an elasticity of patenting with respect to cluster size of 0.0676. In this comment, I identify two major problems in M21. First, M21 uses an event study to test for selection bias from promising inventors sorting into large clusters. The event is inventors moving across cities, but M21's specification does not use the variation in cluster size generated by moving. I construct an event study following the literature on 'mover' designs, where the change in average cluster size is interacted with event time indicators. I find a null effect, which is consistent with no causal effect of cluster size, but could also be explained by attenuation bias from moves being misclassified in the data. Second, M21 uses an instrumental variables strategy to control for omitted variable bias from sources like local field-specific subsidies. The instrument is based on changes in the number of inventors in other cities. Due to a coding error, the data is not sorted by city, so the instrument is constructed incorrectly by taking first-differences across cities. When I calculate the first-difference within cities, the estimates are nonsignificant. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:i4rdps:292 |
| By: | Vitale, Tommaso Prof (Sciences Po) |
| Abstract: | In large European metropolitan regions, governance is structurally incomplete and discontinuous: not a pathological exception but a stable condition, as documented comparatively by Le Galès and Vitale (2015). Drawing on research conducted at the Urban School of Sciences Po across seven cities (Naples, Paris, Bologna, Barcelona, Amsterdam, Grenoble, and Milan), with Rome as an analytical case-limit, this article argues that metropolitan governance discontinuity does not authorise cosmetic urban interventions but demands a systemic gaze over the entire metropolitan region. Metropolitan change advances through configurations of four levers: local voluntarism capable of building coalitions, inter-metropolitan learning, supranational incentives, and conflict management through stable arenas, not through global reforms or singular exceptional gestures. Housing decommodification constitutes the most severe test of governing capacity: where structural policies are absent, agglomeration economies produce displacement and reversed redistribution. The cases of Paris, Vienna, and Barcelona demonstrate that an accessible social housing circuit is buildable through ordinary instruments (land governance, short-term rental regulation, non-profit operators, anti-speculative constraints) rather than exceptional announcements. Drawing on Hirschmanian possibilism, the article proposes the notion of extraordinary redistributive mediocrity: the primacy of daily redistributive work (maintenance, effective proximity of services, public space as common service) over the flagship project as a governance simulacrum. In European metropolitan regions marked by institutional fragmentation, mobilising ordinary instruments well and guaranteeing universal rights through incremental processes of redistribution toward the least privileged is not a fallback: it is the most demanding and most equitable form of public action. |
| Date: | 2026–03–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:mk3s5_v1 |
| By: | Shota Fujishima |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the latent functional block structure of Japan's production network using interregional input-output data. To isolate non-trivial production linkages, we first estimate a structural gravity model to account for spatial frictions and economic scale, and then apply a weighted stochastic blockmodel (SBM) to the resulting residual network. Because these residual linkages often connect distant regions, the SBM is well suited to grouping region-industry pairs based on their shared macroeconomic roles. The results reveal that even after explicitly filtering out the mechanical effects of geographic proximity, the network is organized into functional blocks that maintain a high degree of regional coherence. Beyond this baseline spatial clustering, we find evidence of cross-regional integration, a structural bifurcation between manufacturing and urban services in metropolitan areas, and broadly spanning primary sectors. These findings provide a network-based perspective on regional coordination, offering guidance for how structurally defined production blocks-rather than simple geographic proximity-can inform wide-area policy design. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.25300 |
| By: | Arachchi, Suvan |
| Abstract: | Unexpected business closures in urban areas are a major issue, as it hurts jobs, weakens local economies, and can destabilize neighborhoods. This study finds out whether businesses located near subway stations in New York City had different closure rates compared to those farther away. Using Python-based spatial analysis, 496 stations were mapped against 44, 913 business licenses, and closure rates were calculated for businesses within a 0.25-mile radius of each station. Results show that closure rates were different across boroughs. The Bronx had 38.9%, Brooklyn had 37.6%, Manhattan had 34.0%, Queens had 33.0%, and Staten Island had 30.6%. Certain stations, like Beach 44 St, had particularly high closure rates, with Beach 44 St having a closure rate of 66.7%. These findings show that there are obvious geographic differences in business outcomes and suggest that transit accessibility interacts with broader urban economic factors. Supplementary code can be found here: https://github.com/Suvan9/-nyc-subway-bu siness-analysis |
| Date: | 2026–03–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:854tm_v2 |
| By: | Liu, Edgar; Aminpour, Fatemeh; Davies, Liam; Pawson, Hal; Sharam, Andrea |
| Abstract: | This project examines the long-term impacts of transferring public housing to community housing providers (CHPs) in Australia. It explores how large-scale property transfers have influenced CHP operations, finances, tenant services and outcomes, and identifies policies to support the goals of transfer programs. Public housing transfers have been a prominent government strategy for growing Australia’s community housing sector for decades. Transfer programs aim to improve economic efficiency, expand the community housing sector and enhance tenant outcomes. Recent changes to program scale, contract terms, resourcing and service delivery have resulted in divergent outcomes. Assessing the impacts of different programs informs more effective transfer strategies. |
| Date: | 2026–03–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:3av5c_v1 |
| By: | Etienne Farvaque; Jean-Baptiste Gossé; Camille Jehle |
| Abstract: | Households across European Union regions face diverse economic shocks impacting wage income and welfare. Understanding the channels through which households adjust their income is crucial for assessing regional resilience. Here we analyze regional (NUTS2) data from 2000 to 2020, decomposing income smoothing into public transfers, property income, self-employment and housing income, and demographic changes. We find that approximately 30% of wage shocks are smoothed in the EU, rising to more than 40% in the euro area and 60% in Western Europe, with transfers and self-employment/housing income as the primary adjustment mechanisms. Property income plays a strong role in Western Europe, particularly during recessions, while migration contributes modestly but significantly to smoothing in Southern and Western Europe. Our analysis reveals distinct regional patterns, delineating core, semi-peripheral, and peripheral groups with varying smoothing capacities. These findings highlight substantial regional heterogeneity in income adjustment, underscoring the multi-speed nature of economic integration and the importance of tailored policies to enhance household resilience across Europe. |
| Keywords: | Risk-Sharing, Income Smoothing, Currency Unions, Migration |
| JEL: | C32 E31 E32 E44 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfr:banfra:1037 |
| By: | Kumar Gautam, Santosh (University of Notre Dame); Shandal, Monica (University of California, Santa Cruz); Zucker, Ariel (University of California, Santa Cruz) |
| Abstract: | We examine the impact of rural road connectivity on economic and novel governance outcomes in the context of the world’s largest rural road program, India’s PMGSY. Using a novel village-level survey designed around PMGSY’s rollout, we exploit quasi-random variation in road placement to estimate causal effects of connectivity on agricultural and labor markets as well as governance and political connectivity. We find evidence that roads support market access, as local producer prices increase by 1.3 SD and agricultural outputs diversify. Despite the improved agricultural output prices and options, labor shifts away from agriculture to casual work, suggesting improved non-agricultural market access. Interestingly, increases in casual labor are almost exclusively local to the connected village, and we find a decrease of short- and medium-term migration by 0.8 SD. Additionally, road connectivity increases local state presence, with a 1.1 SD increase in an index of official government visits and a 0.9 SD increase in an index of political connectivity, and leads to higher wages on government construction projects and lower prices in government shops. Our findings show that road leads to more vibrant and diverse rural economies. |
| Keywords: | infrastructure, governance, PMGSY, labor markets, migration, India |
| JEL: | J43 O12 O18 R23 R42 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18468 |
| By: | Ryan Kim; Justin H. Leung; Ariel Weinberger |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates how immigration affects consumer prices. Using scanner data and instrumenting county-level immigration with historical ancestry patterns, we find that an inflow of 10, 000 immigrants lowers four-year price growth by 0.58 percentage points. Leveraging variation in firm exposure through sales versus production locations, we show price declines stem entirely from the product demand channel: firms lower prices in response to immigrants in sales markets, not production locations. Evidence suggests that immigrants search more intensively, exhibit higher demand elasticity, pay lower prices for identical products, and shift expenditure toward lower-appeal products — consistent with a model of heterogeneous price sensitivity. |
| Keywords: | immigration, consumer prices, search, demand elasticity |
| JEL: | F22 E31 L11 J61 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12588 |
| By: | Baraldi, Anna Laura; Cantabene, Claudia; De Iudicibus, Alessandro |
| Abstract: | Governments increasingly rely on purchase incentives for electric and hybrid vehicles to address both climate change and local air pollution. This paper provides new causal evidence on the environmental effectiveness of sub-national vehicle purchase incentives in Italy. Exploiting rich spatial and temporal variation in regional and municipal policies across Italian provincial capitals between 2013 and 2023, we show that the introduction of purchase incentives leads to statistically and economically significant reductions in traffic-related air pollution, measured by maximum annual concentrations of nitrogen dioxide (NO2). These effects are robust across multiple specifications and placebo tests and are primarily driven by direct cash subsidies, while purely fiscal incentives do not generate detectable improvements in air quality. To uncover the underlying mechanisms, we document that incentives substantially increase the adoption of electric and hybrid vehicles and accelerate the phase-out of diesel cars, having an effect on investment in active mobility infrastructure and on changes in selected forms of electric micro-mobility. A decomposition exercise shows that technological substitution within the vehicle fleet is the main channel through which incentives reduce NO2 concentrations. Overall, the results highlight the importance of incentive design and provide policy-relevant evidence on the role of demand-side policies in improving urban air quality. |
| Keywords: | Vehicle purchase incentives, Urban air pollution, Electric and hybrid vehicles, Difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | H2 H20 Q4 |
| Date: | 2026–01–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127835 |
| By: | Roland-Holst, David |
| Abstract: | This report quantifies how a single large employer’s local payrolls drives three critical dimensions of the San Luis Obispo (SLO) and Santa Barbara (SB) county economy: residential home prices, real estate sector output, and the cost of outstanding municipal debt. The analysis covers 28 ZIP codes from 2015Q1 through 2024Q4 (947 ZIP-quarter observations) and uses average annual compensation from the Diablo Canyon Power Plant (DCPP) workforce as the primary salary proxy — an exogenously determined income anchor in a region with limited other large employers. All models are estimated with HC1-robust ordinary least squares (OLS), and the preferred specification for each outcome uses ZIP code fixed effects (FE) to isolate within-locality, over-time salary effects. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences, Utilities, Externalities, Public finance |
| Date: | 2026–03–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:agrebk:qt2vd9m64t |
| By: | Nadine Levratto (CERNA i3 - Centre d'économie industrielle i3 - Mines Paris - PSL (École nationale supérieure des mines de Paris) - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres - I3 - Institut interdisciplinaire de l’innovation - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique); Mounir Amdaoud (EconomiX - EconomiX - UPN - Université Paris Nanterre - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique) |
| Abstract: | how-industrial-diversity-affects-local-employment-growth-in-france-251729In an interconnected global economy, regions face recurring economic shocks and intense competition. For policymakers and researchers, understanding the drivers of local employment growth has become critical. Recent theoretical advances highlight the importance of different relational proximities that influence the benefits of the geographic clustering of economic activities.Our research focusing on France's labour market areas -"geographical areas within which most of the labour force lives and works" -from 2004 to 2015 offers new insights into how industrial diversity affects local employment. The study finds that having a variety of industries -especially those related to one another -can be a significant driver of employment growth. This finding has crucial implications for regional development strategies.An analysis of France's labour market areas offers insights for economic development policymakers. Shutterstock How industrial diversity affects local employment growth in France |
| Keywords: | How industrial diversity affects local employment growth in France |
| Date: | 2025–05–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05542926 |
| By: | Han, Luyi (Pennsylvania State University); Winters, John (Iowa State University); Betz, Michael (The Ohio State University) |
| Abstract: | The 21st century fracking boom transformed American energy production, but new jobs were often filled by temporary in-migrants and long-distance commuters, possibly reducing economic benefits for prior residents. We use novel restricted-access data from the U.S. Census Bureau to assess fracking impacts on prior residents. We examine impacts on earnings and employment for persons born in non-metropolitan fracking counties. We utilize an event study design to estimate annual impacts during the fracking boom, drilling downturn, and subsequent periods. We find sizable impacts on average log earnings that peaked during the boom and partially persisted during and after the downturn. The fracking boom also increased the probability of being employed but the effect largely disappeared after fracking activity peaked. We also compare our main result for non-metropolitan natives to persons born in metropolitan counties and conduct several other extensions. |
| Keywords: | fracking, local labor markets, resource boom, rural development |
| JEL: | Q4 R2 J3 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18466 |
| By: | Monica P. Bhatt; Jonathan Guryan; Fatemeh Momeni; Philip Oreopoulos; Eleni Packis |
| Abstract: | This paper presents the results of three field experiments testing interventions designed to increase engagement and improve learning during remote schooling. Since the COVID-19 pandemic, the use of remote learning when schooling is interrupted has become more common, prompting educators to ask: How can we better engage students during remote instruction? This is especially salient because much of what we know about student engagement is based on in-person schooling, not virtual instruction. In the first experiment, we find that personalized phone calls increased families’ likelihood of registering for a virtual summer schooling program in Chicago Public Schools, the pre-specified primary outcome. In the second experiment, we find sending weekly text messages had no effect on students’ summer days absent and usage of Khan Academy, the primary outcomes; in analyses of secondary outcomes, we find that the weekly text messages increased students’ likelihood of passing their summer math course. In the third experiment, we find adding an instructional aide to supplement classroom teachers had no effect on the primary outcomes of summer days absent and usage of Khan Academy; in analyses of secondary outcomes, we find beneficial impacts in the following school year on students’ math grades and passing rates. |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J01 J24 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34996 |
| By: | Mingzhi Xiao; Yuki Takayama |
| Abstract: | Time-of-use pricing is promoted to manage demand at public EV charging stations, yet its effectiveness depends on short run flexibility and local constraints. Using station by day by hour data from Shenzhen and Amsterdam, we estimate intraday price responsiveness on two margins, whether charging occurs in a station hour and, conditional on charging, delivered energy and occupancy time. High dimensional fixed effects absorb station by day demand shocks and hour of week patterns, so identification relies on within station, within day price variation under scheduled tariffs. Responses differ across cities. Shenzhen adjusts mainly through conditional intensity, whereas Amsterdam adjusts mainly through participation. Weather shifts responsiveness in opposite directions, with heat weakening responses in Shenzhen and rainfall strengthening participation responses in Amsterdam. Power upgrades typically outperform network densification except in transit-oriented areas. |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.29223 |
| By: | Bergantino, Angela Stefania; Caravaggio, Nicola; Intini, Mario; Resce, Giuliano |
| Abstract: | This study evaluates whether the Italian National Strategy for Inner Areas (SNAI) has improved accessibility to essential services in peripheral municipalities. Introduced in 2014, the SNAI targets territories characterized by demographic decline and limited access to key services such as schools, healthcare, and transport infrastructure. Using real-time travel data from OpenStreetMap (OSM) and Tom Tom, we develop a replicable framework to monitor driving times to service hubs for more than 7, 600 Italian municipalities. Our tool replicates the methodology used to identify Inner Areas during the second programming cycle of the SNAI (2021-2027). Applying this framework, we update the classification of Inner Areas for 2025 and document a 20% increase in their number compared with the latest official classification. We then estimate a two-period Difference-in-Differences (DiD) model combined with Propensity Score Matching (PSM) to compare municipalities targeted by the strategy with similar non-targeted areas. The results suggest that municipalities included in the SNAI did not experience improvements in accessibility during the period considered. On average, treated municipalities display a modest increase in travel times of about 2.4 minutes relative to comparable Inner Areas not included in the strategy. These findings indicate that, while the SNAI may contribute to broader territorial development objectives, measurable improvements in road accessibility remain limited. |
| Keywords: | place-based policy, inner areas, policy evaluation, Italy |
| JEL: | C31 O18 R58 |
| Date: | 2026–03–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mol:ecsdps:esdp26103 |