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on Urban Economics and Policy |
| By: | Joshua Coven; Sebastian Golder; Arpit Gupta; Abdoulaye Ndiaye |
| Abstract: | Low property taxes amplify lock-in among elderly homeowners, limiting housing access for young families. Raising them reallocates housing toward the young through two channels: capitalization into lower prices reduces required downpayments for financially constrained buyers, a form of embedded leverage, while higher tax obligations raise holding costs for older owners. In our overlapping generations model, raising California’s property taxes to Texas levels increases young homeownership while decreasing elderly homeownership. Removing step-up basis also lowers elderly homeownership, suggesting their tenure is sustained by bequest tax advantages. The tax treatment of housing shapes housing allocation across generations. |
| JEL: | H24 H71 J11 R21 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35587 |
| By: | Lachenmayer, Fabian |
| Abstract: | The transformation of the housing industry is the result of several key developments, including climate change, digitalisation, socio-demographic change, migration and political interventions. These developments affect both supply and, in particular, demand within the housing industry. Private households are adapting their housing needs, reflected in new qualitative and quantitative requirements and changing location preferences. Successful positioning in a volatile, competitive environment requires players in the housing industry to effectively address the housing needs of private households. However, there is a lack of a comprehensive understanding of changing housing needs in research and in practice. To map these complex, multi-layered changes, this dissertation focuses on the demand side and conducts five studies. The first article of this dissertation highlights the extent and dynamics of changing housing needs and location preferences among private households. Based on surveys on the megatrends—ecological sustainability, digitalisation, socio-demographic change, (sub-)urbanisation and government intervention—it becomes clear how far the housing needs have diverged from the current housing supply. In addition, new location preferences are emerging. The results provide a basis for a deeper understanding of housing transformation and the interrelationships among factors that shape housing needs. The second article addresses sustainability as a central qualitative aspect of housing needs and examines the psychological antecedents that influence the intention to purchase sustainable residential properties. In addition, environmental awareness is considered a moderator. Using confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and hierarchical regression, the study shows that psychological factors, attitudes towards the behaviour, subjective norms, and perceived behavioural control have a significant positive influence on purchase intention. The study builds on previous research in this field by providing a well-founded analysis of the German housing market. The results offer starting points for increasing the demand for sustainable residential properties, which have so far fallen short of expectations. The third article examines the influence of work from home on the adoption of smart home technologies and considers another qualitative aspect of housing needs. The study also accounts for the mediating effect of personal innovativeness. The influence of work from home on the adoption of smart home technologies has not yet been examined in academic literature. Based on task-technology fit theory, a regression and mediation analysis is performed. The results show that work from home is another driver of smart home technology adoption and should be taken into account in the development of residential properties. The fourth article addresses the Sharing City and considers the quantity aspect of housing needs. Sharing in cities can substantially improve the efficient distribution of living space and make housing more affordable. Confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and hierarchical regression identify which motivators significantly influence participation in the Sharing City. The study expands academic research about the motivation to participate in the sharing economy in the city context. It thus provides important insights for urban planners and project developers, who are mainly responsible for the further development of sharing offers. The fifth article examines factors that influence the purchase intention of residential properties in peripheral and urban areas. The study focuses on changes in the location preferences of private households. Based on nine factors derived from the academic literature, a best–worst scaling (BWS) method (case 1) is applied. The results clearly show that affordability is the key factor in purchasing residential properties. It makes no differences whether the respondents want to live in an urban or rural area. Other factors, however, vary depending on residential preferences. The results serve as a basis for the development of residential properties in rural and urban areas. Additionally, the findings assist public authorities involved in revitalising rural regions and cities. The dissertation provides new insights into the transformation of the housing industry and expands existing knowledge by incorporating the consumer perspective. Through the systematic analysis of qualitative, quantitative and location-related housing needs of private households, this thesis contributes to a deeper understanding of the changing requirements for housing. This knowledge sets the foundation for a targeted, needs-based development of urgently needed living space. Thereby, the dissertation not only reveals theoretical implications for housing research but also provides practical implications for project developers and public authorities to adopt in construction and redevelopment projects. |
| Date: | 2026–08–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dar:wpaper:161636 |
| By: | Benjamin Straus; Stéphane Surprenant; Kerem Tuzcuoglu |
| Abstract: | In this note we examine how monetary policy affects housing demand, supply and prices in Canada, and whether these effects vary with labour market conditions. Using state-dependent local projections identified with narrative monetary policy shocks, we find that lower interest rates have larger effects when unemployment is low. Easing boosts resales quickly, raises housing starts with a delay, and increases house prices persistently. Because demand tends to respond more strongly than supply, monetary policy appears unable to alleviate housing affordability pressures and may instead intensify them when labour market conditions are strong. |
| Keywords: | Monetary policy; Monetary policy framework and transmission |
| JEL: | C C3 C32 E E5 E52 R R3 R31 |
| Date: | 2026–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bca:bocsap:26-35 |
| By: | Mehmet Selman Colak; Ahmet Deryol; Mehmet Emre Samcı |
| Abstract: | [EN] In this study, based on Shapiro (2024), monthly developments in the housing markets of the 19 regions used in measuring the house price index are identified as either supply- or demand-driven, thereby decomposing changes in house prices and housing sales volumes into supply (consisting of new and second-hand housing for sale) and demand components. The findings indicate that changes in housing-sale volumes during periods of loose monetary policy are largely driven by demand-side factors, while supply constraints limit volume responses. However, this pattern reverses during periods of monetary tightening. Changes in real house price dynamics are also predominantly determined by the demand component. In recent years, however, supply-side contributions to real prices have turned negative, partially offsetting demand pressures. The toolkit provides a practical and timely indicator of dominant market pressures. [TR] Bu calismada, Shapiro (2024) esas alinarak, konut fiyat endeksinin hesaplanmasinda kullanilan 19 bolgenin konut piyasalarindaki aylik gelismelerin arz ya da talep kaynakli oldugu belirlenerek konut fiyatlari ve satis hacimlerindeki degisimler arz (yeni ve ikinci el konut arzini kapsayacak sekilde) ve talep bilesenlerine ayristirilmaktadir. Sonuclar, gevsek para politikasi donemlerinde konut satis hacimlerindeki degisimlerin buyuk olcude talep yonlu faktorler tarafindan belirlendigini, buna karsin arz kisitlarinin hacim tepkilerini sinirladigini gostermektedir. Parasal sikilasma donemlerinde ise bu egilim tersine donmektedir. Reel konut fiyat degisimlerinde de agirlikli olarak talep bileseni belirleyicidir. Son yillarda ise reel fiyatlar uzerindeki arz yonlu katkilar negatif hale gelmis, bu durum talep baskilarini kismen dengelemistir. Gelistirilen arac seti, one cikan piyasa dinamikleri icin pratik ve guncel bir gosterge olusturmaktadir. |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tcb:econot:2605 |
| By: | Tihana Škrinjarić (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a house price-at-risk framework for the UK. The model allows me to track and decompose different parts of the distribution of house price growth. The analysis covers both the national level, and nine English regions, along with Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland. I employ a comprehensive set of variables and indicators that could help to explain house price dynamics. My main findings are that since the 1970s, the most important predictors for the tail of the distribution have been transaction growth, changes in mortgage rate, credit to GDP gap, and financial stress. I utilise several forecasting horizons and demonstrate that this framework can be applied to forecast downside risks to house price growth and the probability of negative growth up to two years ahead. At the regional level, the analysis reveals considerable variation in the estimated coefficients for mortgage interest rates, with supply-inelastic regions showing higher values than other areas. Finally, I find that an increase in the housing supply in most regions is associated with subsequent easing of price pressures in regional markets. |
| Keywords: | House price dynamics;financial stability;quantile regression;sub-national house price growth |
| JEL: | C22 E32 E44 E58 G01 G28 |
| Date: | 2026–06–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:023315 |
| By: | Vedanta Dhamija (Bank of England); Ricardo Nunes (University of Surrey); Roshni Tara (Bank of England) |
| Abstract: | Housing is a closely monitored and prominent sector for households. We find that households in the United States tend to overweight house price expectations when forming inflation expectations with a coefficient of 25%–45%, significantly above the weight of house prices in the inflation index. We first use two data sets, a multitude of controls, and an instrumental variable approach to address endogeneity. We then use a second strategy based on household heterogeneity. As expected, we find a significant effect of numeracy skills and whether households moved house recently. We model this household behaviour in a two-sector New Keynesian model with an overweighted and a non-overweighted sector and show that overweighted sectors are disproportionately more important for monetary policy. |
| Keywords: | Salience;inflation expectations;house price expectations;monetary policy |
| JEL: | D10 E12 E31 E52 E58 |
| Date: | 2026–01–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:boe:boeewp:023291 |
| By: | A. Patrick Behrer; Joshua S. Goodman; J. Parker Goyer; R. Jisung Park |
| Abstract: | Nearly the entire world’s population breathes air exceeding WHO pollution guidelines, but the extent to which that exposure impairs the accumulation of human capital is not well understood. We study this using longitudinal PSAT data on nearly 10 million U.S. high school students, comparing the same student’s scores across attempts preceded by differing air quality and instrumenting for local PM2.5 with smoke from distant wildfires. A year of observed pollution exposure reduces learning by 0.04-0.06 standard deviations, or 14-19% of typical annual score growth. The damage comes almost entirely from moderate pollution days (8–12 μg/m3), below the EPA’s historical standard, and from exposure during the school year rather than summer, pointing to instructional disruption as a mechanism. Effects are three times larger in disadvantaged schools and among Black and Hispanic students, who are harmed more by the same exposure. Exposure to air pollution widens achievement gaps. |
| Keywords: | air pollution, test scores, achievement gaps, PM2.5, wildfire smoke |
| JEL: | I2 I24 Q5 Q53 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12936 |
| By: | Stephen B. Billings; Sophie Calder-Wang; Weiling Liu |
| Abstract: | How does information disclosure reshape the allocation of environmental risk in the housing market? We quantify the price and distributional impact of the nationwide disclosure of property-level flood risk from First Street on U.S. housing platforms. Using a difference-in-RD design that exploits discrete cutoffs in the disclosed risk categories, we find that homes labeled as "extreme'' flood risk experience a 3.3% price discount and stay on the market for a week longer, relative to those labeled as "severe'' risk. These effects are strongest for coastal properties and remain pervasive across different FEMA floodplain designations. Disclosure also generates significant household resorting: buyers of extreme-risk homes have 5.3% lower income, are more likely to use FHA financing, and are older. Through a discrete choice model, we find that the redistribution of risk to lower-income households is primarily driven by price changes rather than heterogeneous preferences for flood risk. |
| JEL: | G14 G50 Q51 Q54 R21 R30 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35516 |
| By: | Diogo Baptista; Hélia Costa; Filiz Unsal |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a micro-based, bottom-up approach to quantify the macroeconomic costs of climate change. It combines empirically estimated local climate damages with a global spatial general equilibrium model: the Climate and Adaptation Spatial General Equilibrium Model (OECD-CASGEM). The model links location-specific climate hazards to economy-wide outcomes through trade, migration, production networks, and factor adjustments, capturing the role of spatial and economic adjustments as adaptation shaping aggregate and regional losses. Estimated global GDP per capita losses amount to 3% by 2050 and 6.3% by 2100 under a current-policy scenario (SSP2-4.5) and to 6% and 18%, respectively, under a high-emission scenario (SSP5-8.5), with large associated uncertainty. Losses are highly uneven across regions and are larger in lower-latitude countries and those historically more exposed to climate hazards. Counterfactual simulations show that trade linkages, migration and production networks can dampen or amplify aggregate losses depending on countries’ exposure, economic structure and position in global networks. Spatial mechanisms, in particular, reduce cross-regional dispersion in impacts, effectively operating as a form of implicit loss-sharing across locations. |
| Keywords: | Adaptation, Climate change, Climate damages, Production networks, Spatial general equilibrium, Trade and migration |
| JEL: | F12 Q51 Q54 R13 |
| Date: | 2026–09–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:ecoaaa:1875-en |
| By: | Boero, Riccardo (NILU - the Climate and Environmental Research Institute) |
| Abstract: | Fine-scale employment by industry is largely unavailable across European municipalities, yet it underpins regional economic analysis, environmental-economic extensions, and the regionalization of input--output accounts. This paper presents a mechanism-driven, constrained spatial disaggregation framework that estimates industry employment down to the Local Administrative Unit level while preserving official totals exactly at every geographical level. The economic mechanisms that shape where activity locates --- settlement, infrastructure and accessibility, natural-resource endowments, and inter-industry co-location --- are represented as a reproducible input dataset assembled from official and remote-sensing sources; a family of constrained allocation models, combined by a cross-validated convex ensemble, is trained on data-rich United States geographies and transferred to Europe under official Eurostat totals as constraints. Validated against independent national statistics in Italy, France, Germany, and Spain, the estimates reproduce the observed spatial distribution of employment within the held-out uncertainty of the models themselves, and the error does not inflate down the four-step disaggregation. The framework is open, inspectable, and reproducible, providing internally consistent fine-scale employment estimates wherever sub-national industry data are sparse. |
| Date: | 2026–07–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:rqbts_v1 |