|
on Urban Economics and Policy |
| By: | Yan, Wenshou; Wang, Ruoxuan; Huang, Kaixing |
| Abstract: | Large-scale hydropower dams are among the most costly and controversial infrastructure projects, yet credible evidence on their regional economic impacts is scarce. This paper provides the first quasi-experimental estimate of the impact of the Three Gorges Project—the world’s largest dam—on regional economic growth. Using a difference-in-differences design with county level data, we find that the project raised GDP per capita in directly affected counties (which account for 11.6% of China’s GDP) by 9.1%. These gains were driven by improved navigation and trade, industrial land creation, and a moderated local climate—not merely by increased electricity supply. The project has also significantly accelerated the economic shift from agriculture to industry and services. However, the benefits were starkly unequal: downstream counties saw a 13.8% increase, while upstream counties experienced negligible gains, a divergence explained by asymmetric changes in land avail able for development. A cost-benefit analysis shows that considering only direct power revenues yields a negative return (-65.5%), but incorporating regional growth spillovers reveals a strongly positive return of 322.3%. Our findings demonstrate that the economic justification for mega-dams hinges on their indirect growth effects, which are large but spatially concentrated. |
| Keywords: | Mega-dams, Regional economic growth, Spatial heterogeneity, Cost-benefit analysis |
| JEL: | O13 O18 O53 Q25 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127196 |
| By: | Francisco Amaral (Universität Bonn = University of Bonn); Martin Dohmen (Universität Bonn = University of Bonn); Sebastian Kohl (Freie Universität Berlin = Free University of Berlin); Moritz Schularick (ECON - Département d'économie (Sciences Po) - Sciences Po - Sciences Po - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Kiel Institute for the World Economy - Kiel Institute for the World Economy) |
| Abstract: | Rising within-country differences in house values are a much-debated trend in the United States and internationally. Using new long-run regional data for 15 advanced economies, we show that standard explanations linking growing price dispersion to rent dispersion are contradicted by an important stylized fact: rent dispersion has increased far less than price dispersion. We propose a new explanation: a uniform decline in real risk-free interest rates can have heterogeneous spatial effects on house values. Falling real safe rates disproportionately push up prices in large agglomerations where initial rent-price ratios are low, leading to housing market polarization on the national level. |
| Date: | 2024–03–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05448521 |
| By: | Jean-Philippe Meloche (University of Toronto) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the relationship between real estate development and property taxation in Québec municipalities. Regression analysis shows a fiscal gain associated with municipal growth in Québec. For municipalities with a population of 1, 000 or more that registered higher population growth or a higher increase in the number of real estate units from 2008 to 2018, property tax rates either increased by a smaller amount or declined by a larger amount compared with municipalities that had lower levels of growth or that experienced decline. Current spending per capita in these municipalities also increased by a smaller amount over this period. However, a larger share of their revenues came from fees, permits, and development charges, which may have covered part of their current spending. Ultimately, however, this growth-related fiscal gain was temporary. The analysis also shows that municipalities with larger populations had higher per-capita spending, financed by higher property values, which suggests that the property tax is well suited to pay for the costs associated with municipal growth. |
| Keywords: | municipal finances, real estate development, property tax, growth machines, Québec |
| JEL: | H71 R11 R30 R51 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mfg:wpaper:72 |
| By: | Lee, Amy; Millard-Ball, Adam; Manville, Michael |
| Abstract: | In 2022, California became the first state to eliminate parking requirements in certain neighborhoods. Assembly Bill 2097 (AB 2097) prohibits, in most circumstances, local governments from imposing parking requirements within a half-mile of an existing or planned major transit stop such as a rail station, ferry terminal, or the intersection of frequent bus routes. We examined how cities are responding to this new statewide law and draw out lessons for parking policy as well as other types of state preemption of local land use regulations. |
| Keywords: | Physical Sciences and Mathematics |
| Date: | 2026–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt22t184bb |
| By: | Wibbenmeyer, Matthew (Resources for the Future); Liao, Yanjun (Penny) (Resources for the Future); Drunkenmiller, Hannah; Iovanna, Richard |
| Abstract: | Conservation programs are often viewed as competing with local economic activity, yet they may also generate environmental amenities for nearby communities. We estimate how land enrolled in the Conservation Reserve Program (CRP)—the largest US payments-for-ecosystem-services program—affects residential property values. Using nationwide field-level CRP data from 2012–2022 linked to home transactions, we apply a repeat-sales hedonic framework to identify how changes in nearby CRP land influence transaction prices of the same properties. We find that CRP enrollment produces meaningful appreciation of home values: a 10-hectare increase in CRP land within 1, 000 meters raises home values by roughly 0.5 percent, with especially strong effects for land converted to tree cover. Placebo and robustness tests confirm that results are not driven by county-level economic trends or development pressure. Our estimates imply that CRP lands increase US residential property values by $48–68 million annually, highlighting local benefits beyond payments to participating landowners.Keywords: Payments for Ecosystem Services, Land Conservation, Environmental Amenities, Hedonic Pricing |
| Date: | 2026–01–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rff:dpaper:dp-26-02 |
| By: | Francisco J. Cabrera-Hernández; Andrew Dustan; Daniel Osuna Gomez; María Padilla-Romo |
| Abstract: | We estimate the long-run effects of marginal admission to elite public high schools on students' labor supply in the context of Mexico City's centralized high school admission system. Using a regression discontinuity approach, we compare students whose placement exam scores are just above and just below the elite admission threshold. We find that five and ten years after the admission exam, marginally admitted students are less likely to be employed in the formal private sector, and, if employed, they earn lower wages. However, these employment and wage gaps close after 15 years. Moreover, we find that marginal admission to elite high schools leads to delayed entry into the formal labor market, and, at least in the short run, students in elite high schools seem to sort into lower-productivity firms and industries. |
| JEL: | I25 I26 J24 O17 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34706 |
| By: | JiYoung Park (Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University at Buffalo, Buffalo, NY 14260, USA); JongSoo Lee (Department of Economics, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045, USA); SeongWoo Lee (Department of Agricultural Economics and Rural Development, Seoul National University, Seoul 08826, Republic of Korea) |
| Abstract: | This study explored the impact of non-economic factors on Korean family migration to the U.S. Using 1990 and 2000 micro-level household data, it challenged the neoclassical theory’s assumption that migration maximizes human capital. The findings revealed no significant link between the expected income gap and migration likelihood, suggesting that economic theories alone cannot fully explain Korea-to-U.S. migration. Instead, non-economic factors like network theory and family reunion play a crucial role. While focused on Korean migrants, the study can broaden Asian migration trends to North America and the E.U., emphasizing the need for urban and regional policy related to population and urban growth. |
| Keywords: | International migration, Family migration, non-economic motivation, structural probit model; Heckman selection |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kan:wpaper:202601 |
| By: | Kang, Jiefeng; Xie, Yusong; TSUGE, Takahiro; KUBO, Takahiro (National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES)) |
| Abstract: | Tourism and everyday life increasingly intersect in destination spaces, yet existing studies rarely capture how local people and tourists generate unequal access to services through their distinct mobility patterns. This study introduces a trajectory-based spatiotemporal mismatch (TBSTM) framework that links group-specific mobility rhythms to the spatial and temporal distribution of facilities. Using Amami Oshima, Japan, as a case, we integrate a year-long high-resolution mobility trajectory dataset with mobility network analysis, multimodal accessibility modelling, and a standardized trajectory-based supply-demand index to evaluate disparities in service access for both groups. Results show a clear dual structure of inequality. Local people experience persistent, place-specific shortages in essential services, particularly education, healthcare, and administrative functions-concentrated in peripheral communities such as North, Uken, and Kakeromajima. Tourists, in contrast, face seasonal and service-specific deficits in accommodation, food, and tourism amenities, which intensify from quarter 2 to quarter 4 around gateways and major tourist attractions. Network analysis further indicates that local people provide the stable backbone of the island’s mobility system, whereas tourist flows temporarily thicken key nodes without altering overall connectivity. The study extends spatial mismatch theory by embedding dynamic, group-specific mobility evidence into an operational TBSTM framework. It also offers a foundation for dynamic adaptive governance, enabling timely and targeted interventions to enhance equity and resilience in tourism-dependent destinations. |
| Date: | 2026–01–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:qy4xu_v1 |
| By: | Michael Peters; Youdan Zhang; Fabrizio Zilibotti |
| Abstract: | In today’s developing world, many economies appear to bypass industrialization and transition directly from agriculture to services. The largest rise in service employment has occurred in non-tradable consumer services, such as retail and hospitality, especially in urban areas, where many cities resemble consumer hubs built around local demand. These patterns of growth raise fundamental questions: Can service-led growth sustain a growth of living standards over time? Is service-led growth inherently biased toward affluent urban consumers? What role should policy play? We propose a parsimonious general equilibrium framework that incorporates non-homothetic preferences and locally non-tradable consumer services. Our framework bridges macro and micro perspectives, and enables counterfactual and welfare analysis that accounts for both individual and spatial heterogeneity. We relate our framework to the recent literature and suggest several extensions and directions of future research. |
| JEL: | O14 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34692 |
| By: | Brian Marein (Wake Forest University Department of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Recent studies document persistent racial wealth inequality in the United States, often attributing modern disparities to historical differences. But inferring the determinants of long-run racial wealth inequality with aggregated data is complicated by the fact that 30 million European immigrants arrived in the late 19th and early 20th centuries with no direct claim to the wealth accumulated by earlier generations of Americans. Drawing on government data, I find that immigrants arrived with few assets, far behind the native-born population. Yet survey evidence reveals that by the late 20th century, their descendants achieved wealth parity with earlier arriving white ethnic groups. Using a stylized model, I show that this rapid convergence can be explained mostly by immigrants' income growth and plausibly higher savings rates. These findings indicate that initial differences in wealth matter less for long-run outcomes than previously suggested. The results also underscore the central role of race in shaping inequality, consistent with faster economic convergence within than across racial groups. |
| Keywords: | wealth inequality; intergenerational wealth transmission; immigration |
| JEL: | D31 J15 N11 N12 |
| Date: | 2026–01–22 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:wfuewp:022126 |
| By: | Martin Gairing; Adrian Vetta; Zhanzhan Zhao |
| Abstract: | How should cities invest to improve social welfare when individuals respond strategically to local conditions? We model this question using a game-theoretic version of Schelling's bounded neighbourhood model, where agents choose neighbourhoods based on concave, non-monotonic utility functions reflecting local population. While naive improvements may worsen outcomes - analogous to Braess' paradox - we show that carefully designed, small-scale investments can reliably align individual incentives with societal goals. Specifically, modifying utilities at a total cost of at most $0.81 \epsilon^2 \cdot \texttt{opt}$ guarantees that every resulting Nash equilibrium achieves a social welfare of at least $\epsilon \cdot \texttt{opt}$, where $\texttt{opt}$ is the optimum social welfare. Our results formalise how targeted interventions can transform supra-negative outcomes into supra-positive returns, offering new insights into strategic urban planning and decentralised collective behaviour. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2601.08642 |
| By: | Luiz de Mello (OECD); Joao Tovar Jalles (Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao (ISEG), Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal) |
| Abstract: | The decentralisation of policy functions to subnational levels of government need not be uniform across same-level jurisdictions and may instead be differentiated to reflect differences in administrative capacity, preferences and needs. This paper examines whether differentiated arrangements that grant greater policy authority non-uniformly to selected jurisdictions are systematically associated with stronger economic performance. Using harmonised regional data for middle-tier jurisdictions across OECD countries, we combine cross-sectional, within-region and dynamic event-study approaches. Cross-sectional evidence shows that regions with differentiated authority tend to exhibit higher income levels than standard jurisdictions, even after controlling for observable fundamentals and time-invariant regional characteristics. However, within-region estimates reveal no performance gains following differentiation, and dynamic event-study evidence indicates no systematic improvement in economic outcomes after reforms are adopted. Together, these findings suggest that the income premia observed among differentiated regions primarily reflect long-standing structural characteristics rather than the causal effects of institutional reform. |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ays:ispwps:paper2603 |
| By: | Kraynak, Daniel |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the welfare costs of declining coal demand from the power sector on coal mining regions of the US. Using an instrumental variable derived from a stylized model of the electricity sector, I estimate that coal producers shed jobs and wages primarily in coal mining and adjacent industries. In-migration, home values, and public education expenditures also decline. Applied in a spatial equilibrium framework, my estimates imply about $0.85 billion in costs to coal country residents resulting from a net decline of $8.03 billion in thermal coal production value from 2007-2017. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy, Labor and Human Capital |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:nceewp:388972 |
| By: | Thais Diniz Oliveira (Food Systems and Global Change, College of Agriculture and Life Science, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY, USA); Paula Pereda (Dept. of Economics, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil); Ademir Rocha (Dept. of Economics, Federal University of Amazonas, Manaus, Brazil); Samuel Bicego (Dept. of Economics, University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil); Ana Clara Duran (NEPA, University of Campinas (UNICAMP), Campinas, Brazil) |
| Abstract: | Carbon footprints have emerged as a key measure of anthropogenic pressure on the environment and are crucial for designing mitigation policies. However, obtaining an accurate assessment of these footprints requires accounting for the full range of emission sources and the regional variability embedded in production and consumption chains. To address these important issues, we quantify the carbon footprints of Brazilian households by combining multiple datasets and methodologies. We account for all major emission sources in Brazil (land-use change, agriculture and livestock, energy, industry, and waste) using a state-level multi-regional input–output (MRIO) framework integrated with household consumption microdata. Our analysis reveals that food, housing, and transport are the dominant drivers of per capita emissions among Brazilian households, with beef and dairy products emerging as key contributors within food consumption. Emissions increase sharply with income, shifting from food-related emissions in lower-income households to transport, housing, and services in wealthier ones. These results highlight the need for integrated climate policies that account for the full spectrum of emission sources while addressing regional disparities and income-related heterogeneity in emissions patterns. |
| Keywords: | Carbon footprints; Brazil; Region-specific; Emissions sources; Sustainability; Multi-regional input-output (MRIO) |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nereus:022143 |