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on Urban Economics and Policy |
| By: | Kaas, Leo; Kocharkov, Georgi; Syrichas, Nicolas |
| Abstract: | We examine the evolution of spatial house price dispersion during Germany's recent housing boom. Using a dataset of sales listings, we find that house price dispersion has significantly increased, which is driven entirely by rising price variation across postal codes. We show that both price divergence across labor market regions and widening spatial price variation within these regions are important factors for this trend. We propose and estimate a directed search model of the housing market to understand the driving forces of rising spatial price dispersion, highlighting the role of housing supply, housing demand and frictions in the matching process between buyers and sellers. While both shifts in housing supply and housing demand matter for overall price increases and for regional divergence, we find that variation in housing demand is the primary factor contributing to the widening spatial dispersion within labor market regions. |
| JEL: | D83 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19397 |
| By: | Yi Fan; Ho Pin Teo; Yong Tu; Wayne Xinwei Wan |
| Abstract: | This study investigates the impact of social integration on immigrants' housing behaviours from a temporal perspective, using Singapore's differential public housing policies on immigrants as a quasi-natural experiment. With the support of a local town council, we conducted a survey on social integration among 1, 128 immigrant and local households living in public housing estates. In the public open rental housing market - primarily accommodating yet-to-integrate immigrants - we find immigrant renters live up to 3.04% farther from their workplace and pay lower rents up to 0.67% per additional year of residency. Such impacts are more substantial among minority ethnic groups. The results remain robust when using alternative subjective or objective measures of social integration. However, in the public resale housing market - primarily accommodating native and well-integrated naturalised citizens - we find that naturalised citizens face no price premiums relative to native homebuyers, implying no further effect of integration on housing prices after well-integration. This study extends the literature of spatial assimilation focusing on ethnic residential segregations and is generalizable to cities with few ethnic enclaves. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.17633 |
| By: | Bharti, Nitin Kumar (University of Western Australia); Malik, Samreen (New York University Abu Dhabi); Mukhopadhyay, Abhiroop (Indian Statistical Institute, Delhi); Prakash, Nishith (Northeastern University) |
| Abstract: | Despite near-universal school enrollment across many developing economies, the provision of quality education that cultivates lifelong learning and the capacity to apply knowledge in novel circumstances remains elusive. We conduct a cluster-randomized controlled trial in 132 public schools in Uttar Pradesh, India, to evaluate a guided, discovery-based science pedagogy at two intensity levels: a high-intensity Mobile Science Lab (MSL) and a lower-intensity Lab on Bike (LoB). MSL improves motivational beliefs and self-confidence by 0.15-0.18 standard deviations, reduces perceived barriers to education by 0.23 standard deviations, raises engagement by 0.17-0.22 standard deviations, and increases standardized test scores by 0.22-0.34 standard deviations across all subjects. LoB produces limited average effects, with gains concentrated among students completing all sessions. These findings demonstrate that pedagogical design and delivery intensity are critical determinants of multidimensional human capital formation, and that discovery-based pedagogy can shift motivational beliefs, engagement, and achievement in low-capacity public school systems. |
| Keywords: | experiential pedagogy, curiosity, student engagement, randomized controlled trial, human capital, India |
| JEL: | C93 D83 I21 I24 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idd:wpaper:1 |
| By: | Distefano, Mimosa; Donnat, Helene; Overman, Henry G.; Shah, Krishan |
| Abstract: | We study productivity disparities across metropolitan and non-metropolitan areas in Great Britain. Spatial disparities in productivity are large and persistent. Using a development accounting framework, we show that differences in area size and in the spatial distribution of human and business capital are key explanatory factors. A combination of area size and human capital explains 30 percent of the productivity variance, increasing to 43 to 57 percent once we add measures of business capital stocks. Applying our framework to a case study of Greater Manchester, we show that large increases in both types of capital are needed to narrow productivity disparities with London, illustrating the scale of the challenge for policies aimed at reducing spatial inequality. |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2026–08–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138505 |
| By: | Ghose, Devaki; Karpaty, Patrik; Söderlund, Bengt; Zhao, Yingyan |
| Abstract: | How does transport infrastructure shape services provision, labor markets, and regional inequality? This paper studies the 2000 opening of the Øresund Bridge between Malmö, Sweden, and Copenhagen, Denmark, which sharply reduced travel time. The setting mirrors infrastructure linking peripheral regions to urban hubs, while the border makes unobserved services measurable in trade statistics. The bridge enabled cross-border commuting for on-site services and lowered business-travel costs for partially remote services like consulting. The paper develops a spatial model with commuting, migration, and services trade to separate these channels and quantify welfare effects. Services trade is distance-sensitive, with elasticities from −1.06 to −0.45, but less so than commuting. Lower commuting costs thus generate uneven gains, while lower services trade costs produce more diffuse benefits. Ignoring services understates welfare gains of infrastructure by 18%, especially for farther regions benefiting through services trade via business travel but not commuting. |
| Date: | 2026–05–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:11394 |
| By: | Ben-Moshe, Dan; Genesove, David |
| Abstract: | Regulation is a major driver of housing supply, yet often difficult to observe directly. This paper estimates frontier cost, the non-land cost of producing housing absent regulation, and regulatory tax, which quantifies regulation in money terms. Working within an urban environment of multi-floor, multi-family housing and using only apartment prices and building heights, we show that the frontier is identified from the support of supply and demand shocks without recourse to instrumental variables. In an application to new Israeli residential construction, and accounting for random housing quality, the estimated mean regulatory tax is 48% of housing prices, with significant variation across locations. Higher regulation is associated with proximity to city center, higher density, and higher prices. We construct a lower bound for the regulatory tax that allows quality to differ systematically over location and time, by assuming (weak) complementarity between quality and demand. The bound is most useful after prices have increased, so that at the end of our sample period, with prices at their highest, we bound the regulatory tax between 40% (using a 2km radius) and 53%. |
| Keywords: | Housing; Regulation; Stochastic frontier analysis; Real estate |
| JEL: | R52 C01 D24 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19500 |
| By: | Manabu Nose (Keio University, Faculty of Economics); Yasuyuki Sawada (University of Tokyo, Faculty of Economics, Graduate School of Economics) |
| Abstract: | Why do transport investments induce polycentric industrial growth in specific instances, rather than reinforcing existing cores? By investigating large-scale Greater Mekong Subregion highway projects in Northern Vietnam, where postwar state-led reconstruction restored monocentric urban structure following wartime devastation, this paper shows that later corridor investments generated nonlinear, polycentric industrial growth. Improved market access induced large manufacturing entry in agrarian peripheries, with effects amplified by local supply-chain depth. A spatial general equilibrium model with input-output linkages replicates this mechanism. The corridor raised income but widened spatial inequality, a trade-off mitigated by feeder-road complementarity. Infrastructure acts as a spatial big push only when connectivity and production networks jointly trigger new clusters. Overall, a structural shift from monocentric battlefield resilience to polycentric market expansion is catalyzed by infrastructure investments. *Revised DP2025-010 |
| Keywords: | spatial structural transformation, market access, agglomeration, input-output linkages, core-periphery |
| JEL: | H54 O14 O18 R11 R12 R42 |
| Date: | 2026–07–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:keo:dpaper:dp2026-014 |
| By: | José-Luis San Emeterio; Margherita Fadda; Hervé Gazel; Sina Schlimmer; François Moriconi-Ebrard |
| Abstract: | Urbanisation is one of the major socio economic transformations underway in Africa. According to Africapolis data, the continent’s urban population is projected to double from 700 million to 1.4 billion between 2020 and 2050, profoundly transforming Africa’s urban areas and their peripheries. How this expansion unfolds will depend not only on population growth but also on urban density. Building on the methodology presented in the report Africa's Urbanisation Dynamics 2025: Planning for Urban Expansion, this paper develops three urban density scenarios to assess how the underlying demographic dynamic could result in significantly different densification trajectories, with associated spatial implications for urban built up expansion and form. The analysis shows that density is not simply an outcome of population growth but also a strategic planning lever that policymakers, urban planners and spatial planning practitioners can use to anticipate the effects of rapid urbanisation and guide the development of cities. By focusing on both the scale and form of urban growth, this work contributes to policy debates led by institutions such as the African Union and reflected in the Nairobi Declaration of the Second Africa Urban Forum, which recognise urbanisation and planning as major drivers of Africa's structural transformation. |
| Keywords: | Africa, cities, density scenarios, urban density, urban expansion, urban growth, urban planning, urbanisation |
| Date: | 2026–08–21 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:oec:swacaa:55-en |
| By: | Irakli Barbakadze; Jan Fidrmuc; Martin Hulényi; Ketevani Kapanadze |
| Abstract: | We study Russia's February 2022 full-scale invasion of Ukraine as a natural experiment to determine how sudden disruptions to international market access reshape sub-national economic inequalities. Using remotely-sensed nighttime lights as a proxy for economic activity, we estimate the economic effects of the war at the national and regional levels. We find that Russia experienced an overall economic slowdown after the start of the full-scale invasion. Regions in Western and North-Western Russia experienced significantly larger economic contractions, while Southern and Southeastern regions exhibit relative improvements in performance. These findings suggest that sanctions, a shift toward non-Western markets, and increased military production, have driven significant regional changes in Russia’s economy and urban structure. |
| Keywords: | Russia, regional and local inequalities, resilience, nighttime lights |
| JEL: | F15 P25 R11 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12869 |
| By: | Dahis, Ricardo; Szerman, Christiane |
| Abstract: | Changes in political boundaries aimed at devolving power to local governments are common across many countries. We examine the economic impacts of government unit creation through splitting. Exploiting reforms that led to sharp increases in the number of municipalities in Brazil, we show that voluntary splitting enlarges the public sector, enhances public service delivery, and stimulates long-term economic activity in new local governments. These gains are not offset by losses elsewhere and are stronger in peripheral, remote, and underdeveloped areas neglected by parent governments. Higher fiscal revenues and decentralized decision-making contribute to the positive effects on local economic activity. |
| JEL: | D72 H41 H75 H76 H77 Q53 R51 |
| Date: | 2026–07–29 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:128401 |
| By: | Qing, Chen; Dall'Erba, Sandy |
| Abstract: | Domestic grain trade connects geographically uneven production regions, processing centers, and demand markets through regional trade linkages. This paper examines whether U.S. county-level cereal grain trade is spatially interdependent and whether local trade intensity is associated with climate-related moisture conditions in nearby counties. Using a downscaled county-to-county trade network and spatial econometric models, the analysis shows that county-level imports and exports are geographically clustered rather than randomly distributed. Spatial dependence is more pronounced for exports than for imports, suggesting that export intensity is more closely tied to regional production clusters and neighboring trade activity. Growing-season SPEI, measured relative to historical norms, is also associated with trade intensity beyond local county boundaries. In particular, neighboring counties’ SPEI is negatively associated with local import and export intensity. Overall, the results suggest that domestic grain trade functions as a regional spatial system rather than a set of independent local markets, highlighting the importance of regional linkages in county-level grain trade. |
| Keywords: | Community/Rural/Urban Development |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aaea26:404760 |
| By: | Yao-pei Wang; Yong Tu; Yi Fan |
| Abstract: | Using the outbreak of COVID-19 in Singapore as a quasi-natural experiment, we investigate tenants' changing responses to road traffic noise in the rental housing market, using 46, 980 transaction records between 2006 and 2022. Our difference-in-differences estimates show that road traffic noise decreases housing rents by 3.8% immediately after the pandemic outbreak and further declines by 12.7% in the subsequent year-equivalent to 186.7 US dollars per month. The results are robust to parallel trend analysis, permutation placebo tests, and tests using alternative distance thresholds or distance to the nearest main road. Then, we adopt a machine learning text analysis of 10, 425 rental housing advertisements, showing that tenants' preference for quietness increases by approximately 10% from 2019 into 2020. The new work-from-home business model and rising traffic from delivery services can explain for this pattern. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper using a large volume of transaction records to quantify city dwellers' willingness to pay for quietness in the COVID-19 context. Our results have policy implications for other nations and post-pandemic era on the interaction among urban planning, transport networks, and human settlements, and shed light on the pathway to achieve sustainable development goals. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2607.18677 |
| By: | Ludwig, Alexander; Mankart, Jochen; Quintana, Jorge; Wiederholt, Mirko |
| Abstract: | Expectations are central for housing decisions and heterogeneity in expectations is a robust feature of survey data. We study the implications of heterogeneity in house price growth expectations for the level of house prices. We feed the joint empirical distributions of income, wealth and expectations into a calibrated heterogeneous agents housing model. We find that eliminating heterogeneity in house price growth expectations would raise average house prices and amplify house price fluctuations thereby reducing the fit of the model. Without heterogeneity, average house prices would be about 11 percent higher and the boom-bust cycle would be about 41 percent larger. |
| Keywords: | Housing |
| JEL: | D14 D84 D31 E21 E30 G21 R21 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19498 |
| By: | Ahlfeldt, Gabriel; Szumilo, Nikodem; Tripathy, Jagdish |
| Abstract: | We quantify the housing-consumption channel in mortgage demand according to which households borrow more following house-price increases since housing and non-housing consumption are imperfect substitutes. To identify this channel, we take a structural approach to mortgage demand and supply, exploiting exogenous variation in house-price growth and a unique dataset with matched transaction-price and mortgage information. We estimate an elasticity of mortgage borrowing to house-prices of 0.82. Counterfactual analysis of the general-equilibrium of housing and mortgage markets shows that, sans housing-consumption channel, mortgage and house-price growth in the UK would have been 50% and 31% lower, respectively, since the 1990s. |
| Keywords: | House prices |
| JEL: | G11 G21 R21 |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:19370 |
| By: | Lee Crawfurd (Center for Global Development) |
| Abstract: | How many children in low- and middle-income countries attend school near sources of pollution? We match the locations of 2.6 million schools across 17 countries to 11, 301 documented toxic sites and find that 9.7 percent of schools in our sample lie within 5 km of a site. Weighting by enrollment, 12.7 percent of students in the 7 countries with enrollment data attend a school within this distance. These remain lower bounds: the available data capture only a fraction of actual contaminated sites. Proximity is overwhelmingly an urban phenomenon—urban schools are 4 to 28 times more likely than rural schools to be near a site, depending on the country. Within countries, schools in the wealthiest neighborhood quintile are about 14 times more likely to be near a site than schools in the poorest (34.5 percent versus 2.4 percent), reflecting the spatial concentration of industry in wealthier urban areas of LMICs. Where data on school management are available, private schools are also more likely than public schools to be near sites in all eight such countries. |
| Keywords: | pollution, schools, environmental justice, lead, low- and middle-income countries |
| JEL: | Q53 I25 O15 R14 |
| Date: | 2026–06–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cgd:wpaper:749 |