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on Urban Economics and Policy |
| By: | Badilla-Maroto, Marco; Faber, Benjamin; Levy, Antoine; Munoz, Mathilde |
| Abstract: | We document that migration flows upon retirement are predominantly from richer, more urban to poorer, more rural regions. In theory, the local economic implications of senior in-migration are ambiguous, while empirically there is little existing evidence on whether attracting mobile seniors can be an effective tool to promote economic development among lagging regions. We combine a unique collection of microdata from France with a new empirical strategy to fill this gap. We find that senior inflows have significant positive effects on the local economy over the course of a decade, including increases in the working-age population, total employment, GDP, average incomes, fiscal revenues and housing construction. These effects are particularly pronounced among initially poorer regions. They are accompanied by an increase in the share of services in the local economy, driven by employment growth in health, food services and retail sectors. Combining these estimates with observed region-to-region net migration flows, we find that mobile seniors have become a significant force for reducing the concentration of employment and GDP across regions. |
| Keywords: | Aging; Migration; Spatial distribution of economic activity |
| JEL: | R23 J60 F15 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21069 |
| By: | Fouka, Vasiliki; Serlin, Theo |
| Abstract: | When do people identify with their class? Evidence from social psychology shows that individuals are more likely to identify with a group if they are similar to its members. We study early 20th century Britain and show that regional cultural heterogeneity combined with internal migration influenced class identity. We develop and validate a measure of class identity using naming decisions. Exploiting within-household variation, we show that migration patterns that increased the local share of culturally-distant workers reduced working class identification. Where migration increased the cultural distance of the working class, workers were less likely to join unions, voters were less likely to support the nascent Labour Party, and parliamentary candidates were less likely to target working class voters. By 1911, slower in-migration and rising local population growth reduced working class distance in urban areas, which also became strongholds of support for Labour. Migration alters social identity and creates political cleavages. |
| JEL: | D72 J61 N33 Z10 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21051 |
| By: | Kwon, Seoyoung; Lee, Jongkwan; Monras, Joan |
| Abstract: | High-skilled migration programs exist around the world in the hope that immigrants complement native workers, allow firms to grow, and boost innovation. We study the effect of one such program by exploiting the 2016 extension of the Optional Practical Training (OPT) program, which significantly prolonged the work authorization period for international STEM graduates. Using a synthetic difference-in-differences approach, we find that the policy successfully increased the local supply of high-skilled immigrants in exposed Commuting Zones. This local inflow stimulated firm creation and the demand for native high-skilled workers. The program might have also boosted innovation in certain sectors and startup investment, especially in Commuting Zones hosting top-ranked universities, where, overall, the effects tend to be larger. |
| Keywords: | Immigration |
| JEL: | F22 J31 J61 R11 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21224 |
| By: | Dykstra, Holly; Fernández-Guerrico, Sofia |
| Abstract: | Income-based rents in public housing create an earnings disincentive. We collaborate with a public housing authority to design a behaviorally informed program that returns part of the rent induced by higher earnings to residents. Importantly, the program automatically enrolled households and was explicitly designed to make the increased payoff to working salient. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we estimate that annual household-head earnings rise 17% ($1, 370/year) and public assistance falls 7.5%, with impacts on both intensive and extensive margins. These results provide evidence that an in-work benefit designed for salience can offset the earnings disincentive and affect follow-through labor market behavior. |
| Keywords: | Labor supply; in-work benefits; Salience; public housing |
| JEL: | D91 I38 J22 R38 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21316 |
| By: | Costas Arkolakis; Sun Kyoung Lee; Michael Peters |
| Abstract: | Between 1880 and 1920, more than 20 million immigrants settled in the United States. We study how this migration wave affected innovation and growth. Using a newly constructed dataset linking individual census records to historical immigration records and the universe of US patents, we highlight a new channel through which immigrants contributed to growth: they disproportionately settled in urban innovation hubs. To quantify the aggregate and regional effects of this mass migration episode, we develop a new spatial growth model in which skilled workers have a comparative advantage in innovation and sort endogenously across space. We find that international arrivals after 1880 raised US income per capita by 8.2% by 1940. Removing the subsequent immigration restrictions of the 1920s would have raised income per capita by a further 1.7% by 2000. Immigrants' skill composition and their concentration in urban hubs are key drivers of these effects. |
| JEL: | N91 O11 O30 R13 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35392 |
| By: | Benjamin Keys, Vincent Reina |
| Abstract: | US households face unprecedented challenges related to the high cost of housing. In this paper, we characterize the affordability crisis, assess the primary drivers of unaffordable housing, and offer potential policy solutions. We argue that several distinct housing-market challenges—including financing gaps, local restrictions that make it difficult and/or costly to build, and a lack of an entitlement program—present distinct challenges to both an adequate and an affordable housing supply. Importantly, though, the impact of these features becomes more dramatic during economic downturns. Our current national housing challenges are a product of longstanding structural challenges that were amplified by an unprecedented lack of building after the 2008 financial crisis. As a result, the policy recommendations sit within a broader series of reforms and policy solutions that ensure that housing supply meets demand, and that affordability is not compromised, during all periods of the economic cycle. |
| Keywords: | housing, urban economics |
| Date: | 2025–11–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cxx:wpaper:improving-housing-affordability |
| By: | Díaz, Antonia |
| Abstract: | Wealthier, risk-averse buyers pay more to expedite up transactions in competitive search markets. This, coupled with forward-looking intermediaries who hold vacant homes overnight, implies that a credit expansion produces a boom in prices that slowly recedes over time. This boom is due to a combination of two effects. First, search and matching frictions imply that buyers are willing to pay a higher price to trade faster, not only to consume housing services. Second, the fact that intermediaries are forward-looking implies that trading probabilities today depend on the future evolution of prices. Since agents forecast that prices are higher than in the initial steady state, they turn to trading today. Our theory produces a boom in prices that slowly recedes and a gradual rise of homeownership rate. |
| Keywords: | Competitive search; Wealth effects; Housing prices; Credit constraints; Housing supply; Rental housing; Transitional dynamics |
| JEL: | D31 D83 E21 |
| Date: | 2025–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20900 |
| By: | Tracey, Belinda; van Horen, Neeltje |
| Abstract: | We examine how easing mortgage borrowing constraints affects entry into homeownership. Using administrative mortgage data and cross-district exposure to the UK Help-to-Buy program, which re-opened the 95\% LTV segment in 2013, we show that first-time buyer purchases rose sharply in more exposed areas. Introducing a new proxy for financial support — based on the gap between observed and predicted down payments — we find that gains were concentrated among households unlikely to have relied on transfers, suggesting a weaker role for family wealth in enabling homeownership. Because these buyers tend to have higher incomes, the composition of homeowners shifted toward higher-income households. |
| Keywords: | Home ownership; Credit constraints; Housing wealth |
| JEL: | D31 E21 G18 G21 R21 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20997 |
| By: | Alexander Bick; Adam Blandin; Karel Mertens; Hannah Rubinton |
| Abstract: | We study how full-time work from home (WFH) affects migration and economic activity across cities. Using ACS and novel survey data, we show WFH workers migrate 40–50 percent more than comparable commuters, commuters who switch to WFH migrate more, plausibly exogenous WFH expansions raise migration and WFH workers migrate to lower-cost cities than commuters. The post-Covid expansion in WFH coincided with a large increase in migration; WFH accounts for half of this increase and much of the cross-city variation in migration changes. Recently, WFH has stabilized at twice its pre-Covid rate. We study the long-run implications of this shift in a dynamic spatial equilibrium model of remote work, costly migration and job search. Expanded WFH raises migration by shifting workers into more mobile remote jobs, reallocating people and tax revenue out of expensive cities and narrowing rent differentials. Welfare gains are sizable but concentrated among remote-capable workers in commuting jobs just before the shock, especially those in large cities. A higher WFH share also shifts more of the burden of local shocks onto commuters. |
| Keywords: | migration; work from home; remote work; labor mobility |
| Date: | 2026–07–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:103497 |
| By: | li, han |
| Abstract: | Fiscal decentralization fundamentally shapes the spatial distribution of public resources and economic opportunities. This paper examines how China's system of fiscal decentralization, intergovernmental transfers, and local fiscal incentives influences regional coordinated development. Drawing on theories of fiscal federalism, soft budget constraints, and spatial equity, the analysis constructs a framework linking fiscal arrangements to regional convergence through four mechanisms: local revenue mobilization and infrastructure investment, interregional fiscal equalization through transfers, competition among local governments for mobile capital, and the provision of public goods that affect human capital and productivity. While fiscal decentralization has been credited with unleashing local entrepreneurialism and growth, its spatial consequences depend on the design of transfer systems and the incentive structures facing local officials. The paper analyzes China's evolving fiscal architecture—from the fiscal contracting system through the 1994 tax-sharing reform to recent refinements—and explores how it has shaped regional development trajectories. It discusses the role of general-purpose and earmarked transfers in narrowing fiscal disparities and improving public service delivery in lagging regions. The paper further identifies institutional conditions under which fiscal decentralization can promote spatial equity rather than reinforce divergence, including robust equalization mechanisms, transparent performance evaluation, and coordination across jurisdictions. Policy pathways are proposed for aligning fiscal incentives with regional coordination objectives. The paper concludes that fiscal decentralization is not inherently inimical to spatial equity; rather, its impact depends on the institutional framework within which it is embedded. |
| Keywords: | fiscal decentralization; regional coordinated development; transfer payments; spatial equity; intergovernmental fiscal relations |
| JEL: | H71 H72 H77 O18 R58 |
| Date: | 2026–06–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129924 |
| By: | Akbar, Prottoy; Couture, Victor |
| Abstract: | Urban transportation projects are massive public investments that can transform cities. This article reviews evidence on how these projects shape where people live, and how their benefits are shared across income groups. A simple model helps organize the findings. Three factors are especially important: who uses the new transportation mode, where it is built, and how easily people can relocate. Projects serving a narrow group in a specific area tend to increase segregation and inequality. These impacts can be severe if poorer households face barriers to relocation, as happened with the Interstate Highway System. Projects with broad spatial coverage and use by all income groups, like Bus Rapid Transit in developing countries, tend to have more modest segregation effects and broadly shared welfare gains. |
| Keywords: | Urban transportation; Segregation; Welfare |
| JEL: | R41 O18 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20803 |
| By: | Escamilla-Guerrero, David (University of St Andrews); Peri, Giovanni (University of California, Davis) |
| Abstract: | This paper leverages variation in the access to the Mexican railroad network in the early 1900s to estimate its impact on migration to the United States and evaluate its long-run persistence after passenger rail service became obsolete. Using an IV strategy based on least-cost paths between historical cities, we find that locations with railroad access had migration rates four times higher than those without in the early twentieth century. Sequential migration was the key mechanism: railroads first facilitated internal mobility toward railroad hubs, then onward migration to the US. Railroad access also contributed to structural transformation, raising urbanization and local economic development. In terms of persistence, locations with historical railroad access show weakly lower total migration rates to the US in the early 21st century, consistent with local economic growth reducing the incentive to migrate. Yet destination-specific patterns prove remarkably durable: locations that disproportionately sent migrants to California, Arizona, or Texas in the 1900s continued to do so in the 2000s, reflecting the persistence of migrant networks. |
| Keywords: | railroads, Mexico-US migration, migration networks, economic growth |
| JEL: | J61 N36 N76 O31 R42 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18736 |
| By: | Greaves, Ellen (University of Exeter); Venturin, Alberto (European University Institute) |
| Abstract: | The established consensus from a large worldwide literature is that access to a ‘better’ school increases local property prices, which is typically interpreted as reflecting parents’ demand for school quality. We show that this relationship does not hold universally. Using data on English secondary schools, we show that price premiums are concentrated in the minority of areas where the difference in quality between schools is large, and weak or absent elsewhere. Exploring other dimensions of heterogeneity, we find that households pay comparable premiums to avoid schools at the bottom of the quality distribution as to reach the top, conditional on the size of the quality gap. A sufficiently affluent school peer group is a necessary condition for higher attainment to raise prices, suggesting that households value a bundle of school attributes. |
| Keywords: | school quality, property prices, boundary discontinuity design |
| JEL: | R21 I24 H75 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18750 |
| By: | Lawrence F. Katz |
| Abstract: | Experimental and quasi-experimental studies show that childhood neighborhoods have substantial causal impacts on children’s adult earnings and other long-term socioeconomic outcomes. Several market failures are likely to lead to excessive residential segregation by parental income and to an under-supply of mixed-income neighborhoods. Missing markets for opportunity originate in capital market imperfections for borrowing on children’s future earnings, neighbor spillovers, behavioral biases, and housing search frictions. Customized housing mobility services combined with subsidized housing vouchers can help low-income families move to higher-opportunity areas. Place-based policies that create mixed-income neighborhoods appear to increase long-term outcomes for less-advantaged children. |
| JEL: | H0 I3 J1 R0 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35419 |
| By: | Becker, Ann-Kristin; Hornung, Erik |
| Abstract: | Industrialization boosts aggregate incomes, but its distributional effects remain debated. We study the impact of coal-driven industrialization on unskilled labor incomes using novel panel data on wages from 667 Prussian localities (1800-1879), extended with county-level data through 1914. Exploiting spatial variation in coal proximity in difference-in-differences and event-study designs, we find that wage gains in coal-rich regions emerged once industrialization accelerated in the 1850s and continued to grow until WWI. Evidence from 3, 000 household accounts shows that coal proximity raised labor incomes primarily for low-skilled workers, with weaker effects for high-skilled and mechanical occupations. This pattern suggests that industrialization reduced wage inequality by compressing the local skill premium. Mediation analysis indicates that wage gains for unskilled workers were primarily driven by technology adoption and the increasing demand for low-skilled labor, rather than by sectoral change or the spread of the factory system. |
| Keywords: | Industrialization; Labor income; Structural change; Energy transition; Technological change; Agglomeration economies; Deskilling |
| JEL: | C23 J31 N33 N73 N93 O13 |
| Date: | 2025–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:20810 |
| By: | Matzat, Johannes; Dreher, Axel; Langlotz, Sarah; Parsons, Christopher |
| Abstract: | We provide causal evidence that immigration has contributed to the polarization of American politics. Using an ancestry-based shift-share instrument, we study immigration flows into U.S. counties between 1992 and 2016. Counties exposed to larger immigrant inflows become more polarized both in campaign contributions and in political representation: donors increasingly support ideologically extreme candidates for the U.S. House of Representatives, and the candidates who win office are themselves further from the ideological center. These effects are most pronounced in primary elections, where moderate Democrats are more likely to lose and conservative Republicans more likely to win in counties with higher immigration inflows. The rightward shift is strongest in occupations with high immigrant shares but limited interpersonal contact, suggesting that exposure without interaction amplifies perceived threat. We complement these results with original survey evidence that sheds light on the underlying mechanisms. Liberals and conservatives differ less in their economic assessments of immigration than in their cultural interpretations: liberals stress diversity and opportunity, whereas conservatives emphasize risk and social cohesion. Together, these findings indicate that immigration reshapes American politics through the joint forces of salience and contact – heightening polarization where immigrants are visible but unfamiliar, and attenuating it where interaction is routine. |
| Keywords: | Migration; Polarization |
| JEL: | J15 F52 F63 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21008 |
| By: | Lombardo, Richard; Frankenberg, Elizabeth; Thomas, Duncan |
| Abstract: | Little is known about the impact on small-scale enterprises of a large negative shock that destroys assets and disrupts local markets. We document the short- and long-run impacts of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami using longitudinal household survey data. We leverage topography-driven variation in exposure to the tsunami in coastal Aceh and North Sumatra, Indonesia. There are large short-run declines in business ownership, real profits, and real business assets among those exposed to the tsunami relative to comparison individuals who were not directly exposed. The gap in ownership rates disappears within two years in the non-agricultural sector but persists for 15 years in the agricultural sector. Profits and business assets of the exposed remain substantially lower through the long-term. Tsunami exposure led to increased short-duration transitions into and out of business ownership. Housing aid is linked to higher rates of non-agricultural business ownership and profits. |
| JEL: | O10 O17 Q54 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21127 |
| By: | Corin Blanc |
| Abstract: | In response to rising urban air pollution, European cities have adopted Low Emission Zones (LEZs), restricting the most polluting vehicles. While effective in improving air quality, these policies remain controversial due to concerns over fairness and acceptability. This paper examines the impact of London’s 2021 and 2023 Ultra Low Emission Zone (ULEZ) expansions on Subjective Well-Being (SWB). Using panel data from the UK Household Longitudinal Study and a staggered difference-in-differences design with individual and year fixed effects, we compare changes in life satisfaction among residents inside and outside the affected areas. We find that the 2021 expansion led to a decline in life satisfaction by approximately 0.4 points. We explore the mechanisms driving this decline and find that the well-being loss is mediated by car dependency and transport mode availability. While the policy increased reliance on public transport, we show that a better accessibility to public transport mitigates the decline in life satisfaction among London residents. Furthermore, we show that the well-being costs of the policy are regressive, disproportionately affecting lower-income households. These findings suggest that LEZs can generate short-term and unequal well-being costs despite achieving modest behavioural change, highlighting the need for complementary measures to enhance social acceptability. |
| Keywords: | Low Emission Zones (LEZs), Air pollution, Environmental policy, Subjective well-being, Life satisfaction, Staggered Difference-in-differences, Social acceptability |
| JEL: | I31 Q52 H23 R48 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:drm:wpaper:2026-14 |
| By: | Artur Tarassow (Brandenburg University of Applied Sciences); Thomas Theobald (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)); Carolin Martin (Macroeconomic Policy Institute (IMK)) |
| Abstract: | We analyze macroeconomic determinants of residential building permits in Germany, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, and Austria using monthly data from 2000 to 2024, with selected variables interpolated from quarterly sources. Employing ARDL cointegration methods with bootstrap inference across six nested specifications, we identify two distinct regimes. Germany operates as a “fundamental and supply-side driven†regime where interest rates, construction cost inflation, and the unemployment rate play an important role, while house price momentum and household disposable income are less dominant drivers. France and the Netherlands display “speculative and demand-side driven†regimes dominated by income, and house price momentum, even though there are structurally different reasons for this regime. Belgium occupies an intermediate position. Austria fails to establish cointegration, consistent with a dominant non-profit housing sector. Construction cost inflation, which has accelerated rapidly in recent years, shows the theoretically expected negative sign only for Germany. Dynamic multipliers reveal adjustment periods of 2 to 13 months in most cases which is consistent with a medium-term business cycle frequency for building permits. Our findings demonstrate that housing policies should be country-specific to address heterogeneous transmission channels. |
| Keywords: | Housing supply; Building permits; ARDL modeling; Monetary policy transmission; Construction costs; European housing markets |
| JEL: | R31 E22 E32 E52 C22 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imk:wpaper:229-2026 |
| By: | Mengying Cui; Lijie Yu; Shaoyu Nie; Zhe Dai; Ying-en Ge; David Levinson (TransportLab, School of Civil Engineering, University of Sydney) |
| Abstract: | Spatial imbalances in metro ridership significantly reduce system efficiency. Understanding the contributing factors is essential for improving ridership equity and performance. This study introduces novel spatial dependency indices based on spatial weight matrices and land-use function complementarity to explore how access and inter-station spatial dependency affect metro ridership, focusing on station-level boardings/alightings and station-to-station flows. Using Xi'an Metro data, we find that access to employment and residences from metro stations greatly increases station boardings and alightings. Walking access emerges as critical, especially for station-to-station travel. The analysis also reveals a complementarity effect: increases in boardings at one station lead to higher demand at others, particularly where stations serve areas with complementary land uses. These findings underscore the key role of access and spatial dependency in enhancing transit planning and system efficiency. |
| Keywords: | transportation, accessibility, public transport, land use, active transport, transport equity |
| JEL: | R40 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nex:wpaper:transportist-2025-metroflows-3 |
| By: | Martinez, Joseba; Ozturk, Fatih; Rabanal, Pau; Unsal, Filiz |
| Abstract: | What distinguishes good credit booms from bad ones? We propose a new mechanism: collateral scarcity. When shocks raise investment demand but collateral values fail to keep pace, banks can no longer screen borrowers effectively using collateral. Banks optimally respond by relaxing lending standards, funding negative-NPV projects to sustain lending to positive-NPV ones. This is a bad credit boom. We show that bad booms are constrained inefficient because banks do not internalize the equilibrium effects on collateral supply of forming new credit relationships. Optimal policy dampens credit growth during booms and captures one-fifth of the welfare gains from eliminating asymmetric information. We find support for the theoretical prediction that collateral requirements fall disproportionately for low-productivity borrowers during bad booms in firm-level data. Exploiting regional variation in house prices, we find that this effect is stronger where collateral supply is less responsive, distinguishing our mechanism from theories based on collateral supply. |
| Keywords: | Asymmetric information; Collateral; Credit booms; Lending standards over the cycle; Macro-financial linkages |
| JEL: | E44 E32 G21 D82 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21028 |
| By: | Hansen, Casper Worm; Jensen, Peter Sandholdt |
| Abstract: | We study how institutional constraints on executive selection shape redistributive policy, using a 1919 Danish reform that allowed town councils to democratically elect mayors. While the reform applied uniformly across towns, it made left-wing executive control politically feasible for the first time, particularly in towns with stronger prior support for the Social Democratic party. Exploiting predetermined Social Democratic vote shares from the 1917 election interacted with the post-reform period, we identify the causal effect of Social Democratic executive control on local public finance. We show that Social Democratic mayors substantially increased social spending, especially on poor relief and public assistance, with these expansions financed primarily through higher direct taxes. We find no robust evidence that these policies reduced local economic activity. The results highlight how removing institutional constraints on executive selection can translate latent voter preferences into concrete redistributive policy outcomes. |
| Keywords: | Democratization; Redistribution |
| JEL: | H53 H71 N44 O43 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21047 |
| By: | Shawn Berry |
| Abstract: | Deciding where to live involves a complex balance between commuting and moving, as households must weigh housing affordability, transportation expenses, access to workplaces, and social ties. Traditional urban economic theories focus on the balance between housing expenses and commuting costs, while modern studies also consider housing affordability, transportation access, and utility maximization. However, few studies have combined these elements into a clear mathematical model that can be used for both policy analysis and household decision-making. This paper introduces an algebraic model for deciding whether to commute or move, expanding on traditional residential location theories by including direct housing and commuting expenses, income-related affordability limits, indirect social and service access costs, and location-based utility within a single utility-maximization framework. The model uses the common 30% housing affordability rule as a constraint, acknowledging that residential choices are also shaped by social networks, access to institutions, neighborhood ties, and quality-of-life factors. The decision rule derived from the model integrates direct financial costs with weighted social benefits and indirect access costs to assess when moving offers more overall utility than staying put and commuting. Unlike complex discrete-choice, nested-logit, or agent-based models, this framework offers a mathematically clear, understandable, and flexible decision model that can easily be expanded to include more household characteristics, transportation options, or policy factors. The model advances urban economics, migration studies, and housing affordability research by providing a practical analytical tool for assessing residential mobility decisions within financial and behavioral limits. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.31780 |
| By: | Cravino, Javier; Levchenko, Andrei; Ortega, Francesc; Pandalai-Nayar, Nitya |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the effects of large-scale deportations on wages, prices, and real incomes in the United States. We impute the legal status for each worker in the American Community Survey by combining detailed individual information with group-level visa records. In 2024, 3.2% of US workers were unauthorized, but some regions and sectors were heavily dependent on unauthorized immigrant labor. We develop a dynamic quantitative framework with multiple regions, sectors and occupations, heterogeneous workers, and endogenous capital accumulation to study the economic impacts of removing unauthorized workers. We derive analytical expressions relating region- and occupation-specific real wages and sectoral relative prices to changes in the supply of immigrant workers, observable factor shares, and combinations of structural elasticities. Following the removal of 50% of unauthorized immigrants, in the short run average native real wages rise 0.15% nationally, driven by an increase in the capital-labor ratio. In the long run, however, native real wages fall in every state, and by 0.33% nationally, as capital gets decumulated in response to a lower population. Consumer prices in the sectors intensive in unauthorized workers – such as Farming – rise by about 1% relative to the price of the average consumption basket, while most other sectors experience negligible relative price changes. |
| Keywords: | Immigration |
| JEL: | F22 F66 F68 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21155 |
| By: | Comisión Nacional de los Mercados y la Competencia (CNMC) (Comisión Nacional de los Mercados y la Competencia (CNMC)) |
| Abstract: | Housing is an essential element for citizens’ well-being. The current situation in Spain is characterised by sharp price increases and difficulties in accessing housing. This context is influenced by numerous factors, among which land availability may be one of the most relevant. This Study finds that there are significant rigidities in the stages of urban planning, land management and building development, within a complex and fragmented regulatory environment that is also affected by sector-specific regulation. To address these barriers, a series of recommendations are set out. First, to promote greater regulatory rationalisation and coordination in urban planning. Second, to increase the flexibility of urban planning instruments. Third, to recognise a specific and more flexible framework for territorial and urban planning instruments. Fourth, to reduce the complexity of planning instruments and of their drafting and approval procedures. Fifth, to simplify and make urban land management more flexible. Sixth, to facilitate building development. Seventh, to improve the operation of sectoral reports. Eighth, to guarantee efficiency criteria in public authorities’ intervention in the land sector. Ninth, to provide adequate resources to the public bodies responsible for the urban planning process and to seek guidance from the Spanish National Markets and Competition Commission (CNMC). |
| Keywords: | Regulation, Competition, Land, Urban planning, Housing |
| JEL: | D62 L51 R14 R31 R38 |
| Date: | 2026–06–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:awo:epaper:e/cnmc/001/25_eng |
| By: | Katherine Cuff; Nicolas Marceau; Reyhaneh Nikoonejad; Bradley Ruffle |
| Abstract: | We develop a model of monopolistic competition in the rental housing market for low-income households with endogenous tenancy default. Identical suppliers choose the number of rental units to supply and the rental price to charge to maximize expected profits. Potential tenants who differ in their incomes and face an uninsurable income risk choose whether to engage in a costly search for rental housing. If they search and find a rental unit, then they must commit to a rental agreement before their income uncertainty is resolved. Consequently, some tenants may default on their rental payments. We show that tenancy default can explain persistent excess demand in the low-income rental housing market without any government price regulations, and that such excess demand can lead to nonstandard effects of government regulations. We also test whether the excess-demand equilibrium is behaviorally plausible by designing a laboratory experiment. Our experimental results reveal that, with feedback and repetition, the excess-demand equilibrium that requires landlord participants to restrict supply is no more difficult for participants to reach than a market-clearing equilibrium. |
| Keywords: | tenancy default, excess demand, rental housing policies, market experiment |
| JEL: | R21 R31 R38 D41 C91 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12808 |
| By: | Dimitrios Tsiotas (World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology) |
| Abstract: | The 20th International Conference on Economic Geography (ICEG 2026) will be held on September 07–08, 2026, in Rome, Italy, organized by the World Academy of Science, Engineering and Technology (WASET). The conference brings together academic scientists, researchers, and scholars to exchange research findings and discuss contemporary developments in Economic Geography. Core themes include global and regional economic dynamics, spatial economics, economic growth, financial and environmental economics, sustainable development, labor and migration, fintech ecosystems, economic policy, and urban and regional development. ICEG 2026 provides an interdisciplinary platform featuring peer-reviewed paper presentations, discussions, and networking opportunities, aiming to advance academic collaboration and address emerging economic, social, and spatial challenges in a rapidly evolving global context. |
| Keywords: | Conference, Economic Geography, ICEG, WASET, 2026 |
| Date: | 2025–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfb:cnfser:2025-3 |
| By: | Gröger, Andre; Mueller, Hannes |
| Abstract: | We study how cities reorganize after large-scale wartime destruction, using Aleppo after the Syrian civil war as a case study. We construct a 30m × 30m panel for the period 2013 to 2025 combining repeated manual and AI damage assessments, OpenStreetMap points-of-interest for commerce and amenities, and independent recovery proxies from nighttime lights and builtup area. Destruction sharply reduces commerce and amenities, with strong neighbourhood spillovers. Commerce concentrates in less damaged areas and continues to relocate away from destroyed cells even within neighbourhoods. Recovery is selective: nighttime lights largely catch up in the 2020s, while community institutions only partially return to destroyed areas. Overall, the results point to sector-specific adjustment dynamics and persistent spatial reallocation that can leave damaged neighbourhoods on a lower amenity trajectory long after fighting ends. |
| Keywords: | Recovery |
| JEL: | R12 C45 D74 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21059 |
| By: | Oleg Gurshev (Group for Research in Applied Economics (GRAPE); CASE, Warszawa, Poland; Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, Warszawa, Poland) |
| Abstract: | This paper investigates the impact of an export demand shock triggered by the 2014 Russian import ban on labor earnings in Poland. We implement an event-study using traditional and doubly-robust difference-in-differences estimators, supplemented by a variance decomposition. Our findings indicate that the shock has caused substantial consequences for regional inequality. Specifically, we document a persistent decline in average relative earnings between the exposed group of counties and the rest of the country. The analysis of between-group variance shows that the import ban has reduced the earnings premium, shifting the exposed counties from relatively higher-earnings positions toward the national average. |
| Keywords: | Poland; Russian import ban; economic sanctions; regional inequality; local labor markets; difference-in-differences |
| JEL: | F16 F51 J31 R23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fme:wpaper:118 |
| By: | Beckmann, Elisabeth; Weinel, Jette Leonie |
| Abstract: | We study the evolution of bank branch networks in ten CESEE countries between 2013 and 2021. Using a manually compiled dataset of all branches and their geocoordinates, we document a decline exceeding 30%, with substantial heterogeneity across and within countries. We show that banking market consolidation is a key driver of closures, while profitability and local economic growth mitigate them. Branches in highly urban or very rural areas close more often. Competitive effects are nonlinear: moderate clustering lowers closure risk, but intense competition increases it. These patterns differ markedly across CESEE banking systems during the entire period we analyze. JEL Classification: D53, G21, R12 |
| Keywords: | banks, consolidation, debranching, spatial distribution |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:20263256 |
| By: | Ugo Fratesi; Pietro Vicari |
| Abstract: | The concept of ecosystem has gained significant traction, both in academic and policy domains, however, most of the literature adopts given spatial scales, mostly regional statistical units, and then investigates the extent to which those places exhibit ecosystem features. To contribute overcoming this limit, this paper proposes a bottom-up methodology to identify “potential ecosystems†, i.e. clusters of local labour systems aggregated on the basis of firm interactions and territorial networks. The methodology is illustrated and validated with Italian data where identified “ potential ecosystems†are shown to exhibit several of the features that are expected in actual ecosystems. This methodological innovation could provide a support to evidence-based regional policy, e.g. better targeting areas for innovation measures. |
| Keywords: | Ecosystems, Firm Networks, Cluster Identification, Regional Development |
| JEL: | R12 R58 L26 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:egu:wpaper:2612 |