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on Urban Economics and Policy |
| By: | Gatopoulos, Georgios; Louka, Alexandros; Mavropoulos, Antonis; Saperas, Sotiris; Vettas, Nikolaos |
| Abstract: | Housing affordability is at the center of European policy, as housing costs impose ever increasing budget constraints on households. In Greece, the lack of affordable housing is more prevalent than in all other EU-member countries. In this paper we employ a detailed and geographically granular dataset on household finances to investigate regional disparities in housing affordability in Greece. We also explore the socio-economic profile of households in distress due to excessive housing costs. By constructing an appropriate index, we find that housing affordability worsened from 2018 to 2021, while also revealing significant regional heterogeneity, with the issue being more pronounced in urban areas. Subsequently, we identify through both descriptive and econometric evidence, the characteristics of the most vulnerable households, revealing that younger and smaller households, the unemployed, those with lower income and especially renters are facing the highest affordability constraints. The findings provide important insights for shaping policies for affordable housing. |
| Keywords: | housing affordability |
| JEL: | R21 R31 D31 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21404 |
| By: | Giannone, Elisa; Miyauchi, Yuhei; Paixão, Nuno; Pang, Xinle; Suzuki, Yuta |
| Abstract: | How do depopulation and population aging evolve differently across regions within a country, and what are their implications for aggregate economic activity and regional inequality? Using spatially disaggregated data from Japan over the past several decades, we show that rural areas have experienced significantly faster depopulation and aging than urban areas, driven by low fertility and sustained out-migration of young cohorts. Regions undergoing these trends face declining local amenities and rising per-capita public service costs. To study the future evolution and economic consequences of these dynamics, we develop and calibrate a dynamic life-cycle spatial general equilibrium model. The model predicts widening geographic disparities in depopulation, aging, and economic activity in the coming centuries. While subsidies to declining regions can lower regional inequality, they come at the cost of lower aggregate efficiency and higher public service expenditures. |
| Keywords: | Quantitative economic geography; Aging |
| JEL: | J11 J14 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21447 |
| By: | Eva Gossiaux (Paris School of Economics); Mohamed Bahlali (Aix Marseille Univ, CNRS, AMSE, Marseille, France) |
| Abstract: | Urban low-emission zones (LEZs) are increasingly used to reduce transportrelated air pollution, yet little is known about their long-run general equilibrium effects on the urban spatial structure and their implications in term of pollution exposure. To explore this question, we develop a quantitative spatial equilibrium model with endogenous commuting, transport mode choice and air pollution generated by transport, housing and firms activity. Pollution dispersion is described by an advection-diffusion equation accounting for atmospheric diffusion, deposition, and wind. We apply the model to the Grand Paris Low-Emission Zone and evaluate a long-run counterfactual in which internal combustion engine vehicles are banned from commuting within or through the regulated area. The results show that the policy substantially reduces car use and transport-related emissions. However, endogenous relocation by workers and firms partly offsets environmental gains by shifting economic activity and commuting flows toward more car-dependent peripheral areas, while simultaneously attenuating welfare losses. As a result, partial-equilibrium approaches that abstract from spatial reorganization tend to overestimate both the environmental benefits and welfare costs of the LEZ policy. |
| Keywords: | General equilibrium effects; Low-emission zones; Air pollution; Transport policies; Quantitative spatial equilibrium |
| JEL: | R13 Q53 R41 Q52 |
| Date: | 2026–05–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aim:wpaimx:2614 |
| By: | Costas Arkolakis (Yale University and NBER); Sun Kyoung Lee (University of Michigan); Michael Peters (Yale University and NBER) |
| Abstract: | Between 1880 and 1920, more than 20 million immigrants settled in the United States. We study how this migration wave affected innovation and growth. Using a newly constructed dataset linking individual census records to historical immigration records and the universe of US patents, we highlight a new channel through which immigrants contributed to growth: they disproportionately settled in urban innovation hubs. To quantify the aggregate and regional effects of this mass migration episode, we develop a new spatial growth model in which skilled workers have a comparative advantage in innovation and sort endogenously across space. We find that international arrivals after 1880 raised US income per capita by 8.2% by 1940. Removing the subsequent immigration restrictions of the 1920s would have raised income per capita by a further 1.7% by 2000. Immigrants' skill composition and their concentration in urban hubs are key drivers of these effects. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cwl:cwldpp:2538 |
| By: | Haozhen Zhang; Feng Hou |
| Abstract: | Understanding the housing use of immigrants and non-permanent residents (NPRs) is important for developing effective housing policies and urban planning strategies. Using 2021 Census data, this study estimates housing unit occupancy rates—defined as the number of dwellings per 1, 000 people—for immigrants and NPRs. These rates reflect housing use constrained by factors such as financial resources, living preferences and housing supply availability. The analysis of the 2021 Census data shows that immigrants typically exhibit higher housing occupancy in the ownership and rental markets compared with Canadian-born individuals. On average, immigrants occupy 310 owned units and 151 rental units per 1, 000 people, totalling 461 housing units, compared with 397 housing units for Canadian-born individuals. NPRs, meanwhile, occupy 41 owned units and 316 rental units per 1, 000 people, for a total of 357 housing units. As immigrants spend more time in Canada, their reliance on the rental market decreases and homeownership increases. In their initial years after admission, immigrants have lower housing occupancy rates than Canadian-born individuals. Over time, however, their housing occupancy rises significantly, driven by a substantial growth in homeownership—underscoring the lasting impact of immigration on the ownership market. The findings also suggest that an increase in immigration would particularly heighten demand for single-detached homes in the ownership market and for rental apartments, while a rise in NPRs would primarily boost demand for rental apartments. Additionally, immigrants and NPRs are both more likely to own homes in smaller municipalities than in larger municipalities, emphasizing varying impacts of immigrants and NPRs across different municipal contexts. |
| Keywords: | immigration, non-permanent residents, housing, homeownership |
| JEL: | J23 M21 |
| Date: | 2025–05–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:stc:stcp8e:202500500003e |
| By: | Miquel-Àngel Garcia-López (Department of Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Spain & IEB, Spain.); Marianna Magagnoli (German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Germany & IEB, Spain.); Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal (Department of Economics, Universitat de Barcelona, Spain & CEPR.) |
| Abstract: | We estimate how two complementary forms of cycling infrastructure, cycle lanes and bike-sharing stations, capitalize into housing prices in Barcelona. We distinguish the presence of infrastructure from its use, which we capture recovering bike traffic across the entire street network from bike-sharing trip records. We combine geolocated sale and rental listings with digitized records of every cycle-lane segment and bike-sharing station and estimate hedonic price gradients across concentric 50-meter rings rather than a single proximity indicator. We find an asymmetry by infrastructure type and tenure. Sales respond more to stations and rents respond more to cycle lanes; station effects stay positive and fade with distance, whereas lane effects are concentrated nearby and turn negative farther out. We read this through a road-space trade-off that varies with resident characteristics. When we move from the provision of infrastructure to its use, we find that doubling local traffic raises sale prices far more than physical presence alone. This indicates that residents capitalize a well-connected, well-ridden network rather than mere adjacency. Capitalization is positive but modest, too small to support strong gentrification concerns. |
| Keywords: | Cities, cycling, housing prices, consumption amenities, neighborhood composition. |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2606 |
| By: | Dorn, David |
| Abstract: | Schelling’s classic tipping model shows how white residents may leave a neighborhood once the minority share exceeds their personal tolerance threshold, causing rapid segregation after only a small increase beyond a tipping point. Yet this framework abstracts from two forces that may be central to tipping: expectations and housing prices. This paper develops an augmented model in which white and minority renters and homeowners interact both spatially, by sharing a neighborhood, and economically, through rents and house prices. The model incorporates heterogeneous preferences and expectations, generating dynamic segregation and allowing forward-looking behavior to influence tipping. Numerical simulations show that housing markets amplify tipping through the distinct incentives facing owners and renters. Forward-looking white homeowners are more likely to exit a tipping neighborhood and less likely to enter one, as expected house price declines raise the opportunity cost of ownership. White renters, by contrast, benefit from falling rents and remain more willing to stay and enter. The model therefore predicts larger tipping effects on white homeowners than renters, stronger racial transition in owner-dominated neighborhoods, and steeper declines in house prices than in rents. To test these predictions, the paper extends the empirical framework of Card et al. (2008) to analyze neighborhood change from 1970 to 2010 across a large set of US cities. The results confirm that, conditional on tipping, the white homeowner population declines significantly more than the white renter population, and neighborhoods with higher initial homeownership rates experience faster racial change and larger house price declines. These findings suggest that neighborhood tipping, often attributed to social dynamics alone, is substantially amplified by market forces. |
| Keywords: | Residential segregation; Race; Expectations; Homeownership; Rental housing; House prices |
| JEL: | J15 R21 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21424 |
| By: | Lafourcade, Miren; Sheard, Nicholas |
| Abstract: | Airports are pivotal urban hubs and major clusters of economic activity, serving as critical transport nodes connecting cities to global networks. Beyond their scale and scope, airports shape the urban landscape and often stand as symbols of civic pride and local development aspiration, while simultaneously imposing substantial disamenities on populations living nearby. This paper explores the multifaceted relationship between airports, urban growth, and spatial inequalities both across and within cities, with a focus on cutting-edge research addressing the identification challenges in isolating airports’ causal effects on cities. Particular attention is devoted to underexplored economic dimensions, such as the transformative role of low-cost carriers and air tourism in driving urban development in small cities. |
| Keywords: | Tourism |
| JEL: | H54 L93 O18 R40 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21380 |
| By: | Donghang Li; Dingyi Zhuang; Yunlin Li; Chenan Shen; Nina Cao; Yunhan Zheng; Shenhao Wang; Jinhua Zhao |
| Abstract: | New York City implemented the nation's first cordon-based congestion pricing program in January 2025, providing an opportunity to evaluate how system-wide urban mobility responds to large-scale pricing interventions. Because such policies generate spillovers across modes and locations, credible control groups are difficult to construct. We address this challenge using time series foundation models to generate probabilistic counterfactual demand forecasts with calibrated uncertainty. Applying this framework to bus, subway, and aggregate trip volume data, we find that post-policy bus and subway ridership increased significantly relative to expected no-policy demand, while overall travel demand decreased modestly. The effects are spatially heterogeneous: while reductions in overall travel demand are concentrated within the Congestion Relief Zone, transit gains extend beyond Manhattan's core. Socio-demographic analyses further reveal uneven adaptation across neighborhoods, highlighting spatial equity implications. Our framework provides a scalable approach for the uncertainty-aware evaluation of system-wide urban interventions when clean control groups are unavailable. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.17530 |
| By: | Suvy Qin; John Voorheis |
| Abstract: | Flooding is among the most salient natural hazards facing households in the United States. A large body of evidence has documented a pattern of disproportionate social vulnerability in floodplains. However, little evidence exists on how household-level exposure to flood risk is distributed. We fill this gap by combining parcel-level flood risk with confidential linked survey and administrative data held at the US Census Bureau. Although net migration to Census blocks in floodplains has increased in recent years, there has been essentially no net migration to parcels with flood risk or change in the overall share of households living in floodplains. Income gradients in flood risk are highly non-linear at the household level, with slightly negative income gradients for the bottom 90 percentiles of the income distribution that are dwarfed by disproportionate exposure in the top decile, especially when considering multiple property ownership. This nonlinearity is largely driven by differences in building type and homeownership within narrow income groups. In contrast to the conclusions in the literature using aggregate data, our household-level analysis suggests that households in floodplains are less disadvantaged and increasingly protected from the impacts of flooding, even as a vulnerable subpopulation of low-income, uninsured homeowners remains. |
| Keywords: | Flooding, environmental inequality, homeowners insurance |
| JEL: | Q54 R21 D31 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cen:wpaper:26-37 |
| By: | Andrej Cupak (National Bank of Slovakia); Pavel Gertler (National Bank of Slovakia); Judita Jurasekova Kucserova (National Bank of Slovakia); Jan Klacso (National Bank of Slovakia); Andrej Moravcik (National Bank of Slovakia); Denys Orlov (National Bank of Slovakia); Stefan Rychtarik (National Bank of Slovakia) |
| Abstract: | The Slovak housing market is strongly ownership-oriented, with renting functioning largely as a transitional state, concentrated among younger and lower-income individuals. This report draws on the 2025 Survey on housing affordability and attitudes towards real estate investment to examine what drives tenure decisions and how individuals perceive affordability. Homeowners reach ownership through three broadly equal routes: (i) outright purchase, (ii) mortgage financing, and (iii) inheritance or gifts. Housing satisfaction is consistently higher among owners, while affordability is perceived as the lowest in large cities and for larger households. Survey evidence from an advisory choice experiment confirms that support for ownership is strong but highly sensitive to financing conditions. The findings highlight that housing affordability is shaped not only by market prices but also by credit access, expectations, life-cycle stage, and household characteristics. |
| JEL: | R21 R31 D12 G51 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:svk:wpaper:1142 |
| By: | Chris Jeffords (Department of Economics, Villanova School of Business, Villanova University) |
| Abstract: | This paper studies whether implementation of New York City’s congestion pricing program is associated with local changes in ambient PM2.5. I assemble a monitor-hour panel of fixed-site pollution readings across New York City and align each observation to New York local time, allowing treatment status and charged hours to match the program's legal geography and toll schedule. The empirical design compares treated and untreated monitors before and after implementation using difference-in-differences and triple-difference specifications with monitor, date, hour, and date-hour fixed effects, hourly weather controls, and small-cluster inference checks. Across specifications, PM2.5 declines more at legally treated monitors than at control monitors after the charge begins. The association is strongest under the baseline legal treatment definition, remains negative under a broader geographic treatment definition, and is more pronounced on weekdays and during charged hours. These patterns are robust to wild-cluster bootstrap inference and are supported by placebo-assignment counterfactuals that randomly reassign treatment status across the monitor network. Event-study diagnostics, fake-date placebo tests, and donut-window checks further support the timing interpretation while also reinforcing the need for caution. The results do not estimate a full citywide causal effect, nor do they observe traffic volumes, route choices, or individual exposure. They provide early fixed-monitor evidence that implementation of the congestion charge is associated with a relative decline in local PM2.5 at monitored sites most directly tied to the policy's geography and timing. |
| Keywords: | congestion pricing; air pollution; PM2.5; urban transportation; road pricing; New York City; difference-in-differences; triple differences |
| JEL: | Q53 R41 R48 H23 C23 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vil:papers:64 |
| By: | Antoine Belgodere (LISA - Laboratoire « Lieux, Identités, eSpaces, Activités » (UMR CNRS 6240 LISA) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Università di Corsica Pasquale Paoli [Université de Corse Pascal Paoli]); Georges Casamatta (LISA - Laboratoire « Lieux, Identités, eSpaces, Activités » (UMR CNRS 6240 LISA) - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique - Università di Corsica Pasquale Paoli [Université de Corse Pascal Paoli], TSE-R - TSE-R Toulouse School of Economics – Recherche - INRAE - Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement) |
| Abstract: | Since 2015, French municipalities facing high housing market pressures have been allowed to levy a surcharge on the housing tax applied to second homes. Using a synthetic differencein-differences design, we find a substantial decline in the declared number of second homes and a significant increase in housing tax revenues in treated municipalities, but no evidence of a decrease in housing prices. Drawing on dwelling-level transition microdata, we show that most of the apparent reduction in second homes is driven by strategic reclassification for tax purposes rather than genuine changes in occupancy. |
| Keywords: | Synthetic difference-in-differences, Tax reform, Housing taxation, Second homes |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05663707 |
| By: | Alabrese, Eleonora (University of Bath); Edenhofer, Jacob (University of Oxford); Fetzer, Thiemo (University of Warwick); Wang, Shizhuo (New York University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the regional distribution of Brexit’s economic costs across the United Kingdom. We apply a synthetic control approach to two complementary outcomes– real gross value added (GVA) and nominal grossdisposable household income (GDHI)– covering multiple levels of UK spatial aggregation. We construct placebo-weighted ensemble counterfactuals using both post-2016 and post-2020 treatment windows. We document three main findings. Economic losses are large and geographically widespread: around 70% of local authority districts record output or income below their synthetic counterfactual. Losses are unevenly distributed. They are concentrated in initially prosperous and trade-integrated regions, particularly London, the South East, and Scotland, while less affluent areas experience comparatively smaller declines. This pattern is consistent with a process of "levelling down": Brexit has reduced regional inequality not by improving economic performance in lagging areas, but by disproportionately weakening leading ones. Northern Ireland is a clear exception, having been partly insulated from these losses by its continued access to key elements of the EU single market. |
| Keywords: | Brexit, Regional inequalities, synthetic control, economic integration, subnational GDP JEL codes: F15, H72, R11, C21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wrk:warwec:1617 |
| By: | Sutirtha Bagchi (Department of Economics, Villanova School of Business, Villanova University); Camryn Browne (Department of Economics, Villanova School of Business, Villanova University); Corey Lang (Department of Environmental and Natural Resource Economics, College of the Environment and Life Sciences, The University of Rhode Island) |
| Abstract: | Does inequality reduce willingness to collectively fund public goods? We examine this question using data from 3, 273 school district referenda from the state of Ohio for the period from 2009 to 2019. We examine the differential effects of income inequality typically captured in economic surveys and the inequality that voters themselves perceive through variation in their community's housing stock. Our primary measure of perceived inequality is the 90/10 ratio of home values within a district - a dimension of inequality made salient by the physical landscape voters encounter in their everyday lives. We find that greater visible housing inequality is associated with a lower referendum yes-vote share whereas the Gini coefficient of income inequality is not. The effects of perceived inequality are concentrated in geographically compact districts where routine exposure to housing disparities is highest, and absent in more spreadout districts where such exposure is lower. The negative effect is also substantially attenuated in counties with stronger cross-income social ties, consistent with bridging social capital sustaining solidarity in the presence of salient inequality. Our results suggest that voters respond to the inequality they perceive in their community rather than inequalities in the underlying income distribution that are commonly used by social scientists to explain voter behavior. |
| Keywords: | Perceived Inequality; Housing; Public Goods; Voting; Referendum; Economic Connectedness |
| JEL: | D63 D72 H41 H75 I22 |
| Date: | 2026–07 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:vil:papers:65 |
| By: | Meng Jin; Melanie Handrich; Simone Martinenz; Nicholas Hoeser; Ziyue Li |
| Abstract: | Existing approaches to e-scooter mobility hub planning lack city-type-specific causal evidence. Demand models are typically correlational, built on proprietary trip data, and do not distinguish how driver profiles vary across urban typologies. This paper presents a three-phase agentic AI framework that constructs a Causal Template Library from public GBFS data across 29 German cities, encoding which environmental features causally drive hotspot demand for each combination of city type (large, university, industrial, hilly) and cluster type (core, peripheral). A large language model (LLM) orchestrated causal discovery pipeline adapts algorithm selection to local data conditions across 57 city-cluster units. The library reveals systematic variation. Core demand is driven by activity access and transit proximity, while peripheral demand responds to built form, with city-type-specific patterns supporting transferable siting templates. A planning tool built on the library scores candidate sites, calibrates infrastructure recommendations to local demographics, and generates practitioner-ready reports. In Heilbronn, Germany, two hub sites informed by the framework's causal evidence are currently under construction, illustrating how the outputs can support real-world siting decisions. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.25484 |
| By: | Sara Savini; Charlotte Le Chapelain; Claude Diebolt; Alexis Litvine |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how transport infrastructure shaped the diffusion of steam power across French departments between 1840 and 1911. Using a newly constructed annual departmental panel of steam engine stocks, firms, and installed horsepower, we reconstruct regional diffusion trajectories and estimate the causal impact of transport connectivity on mechanization. We combine department and year fixed effects with an instrumental-variable strategy based on successive French railway planning laws to address the endogeneity of railway expansion. The results reveal substantial territorial heterogeneity in the timing and speed of adoption, indicating that industrialization unfolded unevenly across space. Railway expansion exerted a positive and increasingly strong effect on steam adoption from the mid-1860s onward. An additional 100 kilometers of railway is associated with roughly six additional steam engines per 10, 000 inhabitants around 1865 and more than nine by 1900. Navigable waterways also promoted adoption, though their role evolved from complementing railways to becoming progressively substituted by them as the rail network matured. To identify the mechanisms underlying these effects, we construct time-varying measures of accessibility to coal markets and engineering expertise. The results indicate that improved access to coal significantly increased steam adoption throughout the second half of the nineteenth century, while access to engineering knowledge became important only in the 1890s as steam technology grew more complex. The findings suggest that the diffusion of general-purpose technologies depended not only on relative prices and local endowments but also on the infrastructures that reduced economic and informational frictions across space. |
| Keywords: | Technological diffusion · Transport infrastructure · Steam power · French industrialisation · Regional inequality |
| JEL: | N93 N73 O33 C23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ulp:sbbeta:2026-22 |
| By: | Haldar, Stuti (CIRCLE, Lund University); Arifi, Bleta (University of Freiburg); Grillitsch, Markus (CIRCLE, Lund University); Bazaz, Amir (Indian Institute for Human Settlements); Späth, Philipp (University of Freiburg) |
| Abstract: | Energy justice is essential for ensuring just and equitable transitions, yet justice remains contested and perpetually negotiated within complex socio-political environments. While sociotechnical transitions literature often relies on static accounts of agency, regional development perspectives on structural transformation fall short in explicitly accounting for justice outcomes. We contribute to these scholarships by theorizing how justice outcomes are shaped through dynamic agentic processes on temporal and spatial dimensions. We propose a theoretical framework that conceptualizes Justice Claims (JCs) as discursive devices that distill and align fluid, multi-level storylines to mediate the co-evolution of local opportunity spaces (OS) and multi-scalar human agency. We operationalize this framework through an empirical analysis of two striking grassroots mobilisations: energy grid remunicipalization in Hamburg, Germany, and slum electrification in Mumbai, India. We demonstrate that while human agency is inherently asymmetrical within transition governance, under-resourced grassroots actors leverage JCs to mobilise collective agency - rendering themselves as legitimate ‘agents of justice’ capable of reshaping the parameters of the local OS. In Hamburg, activists braided macro-level Energiewende discourses with local "Right to the City" storylines to expand the local OS and legally mandate grid buybacks. In Mumbai, slum residents hijacked top-down universal service obligations and privatisation mandates to force formal grid access within a splintered utility landscape. our findings demonstrate that initial structural gains do not automatically dissolve agentic asymmetries; sustained place-based leadership and the progressive institutionalization of decentralized deliberative spaces are required to permanently translate normative JCs into durable policy and infrastructure mandates. |
| Keywords: | Energy transitions; Opportunity space; Justice claims; Human agency; Just transitions |
| JEL: | O18 P18 Q01 |
| Date: | 2026–07–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:lucirc:2026_008 |
| By: | Civel, Edouard; Creti, Anna; Fack, Gabrielle; Herrera-Araujo, Daniel |
| Abstract: | We evaluate France’s phased rental ban on energy-inefficient housing using nationwide housing transactions (2016–2023), linked to Energy Performance Certificates (EPCs) and occupancy records. Focusing on apartments, we use a reduced-form design around the 2021 policy announcement. We find that the annual probability of sale for treated units (EPC G dwellings that were rented prior to sale) increases by 0.72 percentage points. Relative to a baseline annual sale probability of 2.9% for rented EPC G dwellings, this corresponds to a 25% increase.The reform also changes post-purchase use. Within two years of sale, the share of sold EPC G apartments that are rented declines by about 3.8 percentage points, while owner-occupation rises by roughly 2 percentage points. Given that around 36% of transacted apartments are rented in the pre-announcement period, a 3.8-point decline implies about a 10% reduction in the share of newly purchased apartments that enter (or remain in) the rental market. Prices also re-sort across EPC ratings in ways consistent with expected renovation and compliance costs. Finally, we estimate a structural equilibrium model of housing demand that matches these moments and observed market shares. Counterfactual simulations suggest that, under full implementation, owner-occupiers and second-home buyers increase their market shares at the expense of landlords, with price effects concentrated among the least energy-efficient dwellings. |
| JEL: | Q51 Q58 R21 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:21446 |
| By: | Toshiyuki Uemura (School of Economics, Kwansei Gakuin University) |
| Abstract: | This study develops a Salop-type circular model to analyze the impact of Japan's Hometown Tax Donation system (Furusato Nozei) on the fiscal balance of local governments and household economic welfare. In the model, households endogenously choose the local government to which they donate based on the donation price, the brand strength of the reciprocal gifts, and idiosyncratic attachment. The system affects household welfare through two channels: private utility derived from reciprocal gifts and utility from public goods financed by local government fiscal balances. We develop a unified theoretical framework incorporating these channels and examine its implications using both numerical simulations and empirical analysis. The results show that deficit local governments are predominantly located in urban areas, whereas surplus local governments are more common in rural areas. Urban local governments experience fiscal deterioration due to donation outflow, leading to a decline in per capita welfare through reduced public goods provision. In contrast, rural local governments can sustain per capita welfare by improving their fiscal position through attracting donations, even in the presence of population decline. Furthermore, the Local Allocation Tax system partially offsets revenue losses, thereby mitigating the decline in economic welfare. |
| Keywords: | hometown tax donation system, Salop-type circular model, economic welfare, local government fiscal balances |
| JEL: | H71 H72 H77 |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:kgu:wpaper:311 |
| By: | Chau Tran Bao; Khoi Nguyen Dinh Nguyen; Ha Nguyen Manh; Ngan Nguyen Thi Thuy |
| Abstract: | Automation and artificial intelligence (AI) are reshaping labor demand unevenly across space, creating an urgent imperative for place-sensitive education and workforce policy. This study asks whether regional exposure to automation and to AI relates to local employment and wages in opposite ways, and whether those relationships differ between urban and rural regions -- two questions whose answers carry direct implications for how skills training and digital education should be targeted. Using a region-by-year panel and shift-share measures of technological exposure built from baseline industry and occupation composition, we estimate two-way fixed-effects and instrumental-variable models that interact exposure with an urban indicator. The framework distinguishes automation exposure, concentrated in routine work, from AI exposure, concentrated in cognitive work -- a distinction that maps directly onto the types of skills that education systems need to develop or preserve. Estimates show automation exposure lowering employment and wages, with the employment loss cushioned in cities, while AI exposure raises wages and concentrates in urban regions. Technology therefore reshapes, rather than simply widens, the divide. The findings argue for place-sensitive policy: weighting reallocation and reskilling support toward routine-exposed rural regions, while extending digital infrastructure and AI-complementary skills outward so that rural workers can share AI's wage gains rather than absorb only automation's losses. |
| Date: | 2026–06 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2606.22833 |