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on Urban Economics and Policy |
| By: | Sixian Shu; Midori Wakabayashi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how changes in school admission rules affect housing market capitalization across urban neighborhoods in a deterministic public school assignment system. We study the 2020 Synchronous Enrollment Policy (SEP) in Guangzhou, China, which synchronized public and private school admissions and replaced selective private admissions with lottery allocation, thereby increasing uncertainty in private school enrollment while leaving public school catchments unchanged. Using transaction-level data on second-hand housing sales from 2018 to 2021 matched with official public primary school catchment maps, we implement a difference-in-differences strategy comparing price changes across neighborhoods inside and outside high-quality public school districts before and after the reform. We find that the policy increased the housing price premium associated with high- quality public school zones by approximately 4.2 percent. The capitalization effect exhibits systematic spatial heterogeneity: it is stronger in urban core districts, attenuates with residential distance to assigned schools, and is amplified in areas with greater exposure to elite private schools. These findings suggest that the housing market consequences of admission reforms depend critically on pre-existing educational competition structures and intra-urban spatial structure. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:toh:tupdaa:85 |
| By: | Kanayama, Yuki; Sadayuki, Taisuke |
| Abstract: | Why do derelict houses persist in urban areas despite strong demand, and what are their effects on neighbourhoods? This paper sheds light on a simple mechanism — speculation over future real estate value increases — that explains this puzzle, and employs empirical strategies to test this mechanism and quantify the disamenity effects of derelict houses. First, we develop a dynamic discrete choice model showing that expectations of future urban regeneration can incentivise property owners to delay redevelopment, thereby prolonging dereliction. Using variation induced by urban regeneration plans in central Tokyo, we find that properties located in designated regeneration areas are 6-14% more likely to be derelict. Second, we estimate the effect of derelict houses on nearby rents using future regeneration plans as an instrument — affecting dereliction but not current rents directly. Our 2SLS results show that one additional derelict house within 80 metres reduces rents by 1.5% on average. The effect is magnified to up to 4.5% in areas with low accessibility to public safety services, suggesting that renters’ concerns about fire and crime risks amplify the disamenity effects of derelict properties. Our findings suggest that rational forward-looking behaviour can reduce effective housing supply and generate negative neighbourhood externalities, highlighting an unintended consequence of place-based urban regeneration policies. |
| JEL: | D62 R11 R21 R31 R52 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:138519 |
| By: | Atila Abdulkadiroglu (Duke University); Parag A. Pathak (Massachusetts Institute of Technology); Christopher R. Walters (University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | We examine two approaches to improving urban school systems: changing who gets to go to existing schools (reallocation) and restructuring school portfolios through closures and reconstitution (resource augmentation). Using data from New York City high schools, we estimate models of school effects allowing for both vertical school quality differences and horizontal student-specific match effects. While sophisticated reallocation policies that optimize student-school matches can generate modest educational gains, they are constrained by limited seats at highly effective schools. Simple resource-augmentation policies targeting replacement of low-performing schools achieve comparable improvements with less systemic disruption. Analysis ofNYC's school closures reveals that basic graduation rate metrics effectively identify struggling schools, suggesting complex value-added models may be unnecessary for targeting closure decisions. Our findings indicate that capacity constraints, rather than poor school matching. |
| JEL: | I21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-39 |
| By: | Rivard, Alexandre; Merkley, Eric; Stecula, Dominik (University of Pennsylvania) |
| Abstract: | A key barrier to ensuring the growth of the housing supply is local opposition to development, often called NIMBYism (Not In My Back Yard). We use pre-registered studies on representative samples of Canadians and Americans to explore the values-based correlates of opposition to local housing development and the values-based conditionality of the effects of certain housing characteristics (i.e. affordable housing) on housing opposition. We find that nativism, racial resentment, and moral traditionalism are generally associated with more negativity towards local housing development with some modest differences between countries and outcome measures. Nativism is connected to opposition to development in Canada, while racial resentment stands in its place in the United States. Traditionalism is associated with opposition to development in both countries. Nativism appears to be the most important correlate of negative beliefs about the consequences of new housing, such as harming neighbourhood character. The connection between housing characteristics and development opposition is also conditional on values. Respondents are generally more supportive of affordable over market-rate housing, but this is only true among those with low racial resentment, traditionalism, nativism, and free-market attitudes, and high levels of egalitarianism. Our findings highlight the importance of values in shaping attitudes towards new housing. |
| Date: | 2026–05–13 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:fg6d5_v2 |
| By: | Victoire Girard; Edouard Pignede |
| Abstract: | The past three decades have witnessed a dramatic expansion of artisanal and small scale gold mining (ASgM), transforming the economic and spatial opportunities of tens of millions of people. We show how this transformation has shaped urbanization in Sub-Saharan Africa since 1975. Our empirical strategy exploits plausibly exogenous variation in ASgM activity driven by the interaction between international gold-price shocks and local geological suitability for artisanal extraction, and combines it with new continent-wide data on urban population, nighttime lights, and household welfare. Although ASgM is commonly viewed as a rural activity, we find that ASgM exposure significantly accelerates urbanization, accounting for roughly five percent of total urban population growth. This expansion takes the form of extensive, decentralized urbanization: new towns emerge in remote, infrastructure-poor areas, while the growth of pre-existing towns and cities does not accelerate. Both new and existing urban entities exposed to ASgM exhibit lower living standards and limited industrial activity. Overall, ASgM contributes to a fragmented pattern of urbanization without structural transformation. |
| Keywords: | Urbanization, Artisanal and small-scale mining, Gold, Spatial development |
| JEL: | O13 O55 Q32 R11 R12 R14 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unl:novafr:wp2601 |
| By: | Ariel J. Binder; Max Risch; John L. Voorheis |
| Abstract: | We provide new county-level estimates of intergenerational mobility, covering multiple economic concepts: total income, labor income, homeownership, housing wealth, and total wealth. This is possible via small-area estimation techniques and linked survey and administrative data covering millions of U.S. children born between 1978 and 1986. We find that relative mobility in wealth concepts shows less spatial clustering and more spatial variation than relative mobility in income concepts. Many cities and their suburbs exhibit lower relative mobility (i.e. higher intergenerational persistence) in wealth concepts than in income concepts. Next, we show that various local characteristics are associated with some concepts of economic mobility but not with others. For example, we estimate a strong negative association between the local severity of the Great Recession and child income, regardless of parent position in the income distribution. However, the negative association between recession severity and wealth only exists among children from poorer families. We provide a public-use data package to facilitate further research. |
| JEL: | D31 E24 O18 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35219 |
| By: | Denis F. Alves (Federal University of Pernambuco, Brazil); André L. S. Chagas (University of Sao Paulo, Brazil); Roberta M. Rocha (Federal University of Pernambuco, Brazil); Raul M. Silveira Neto (Federal University of Pernambuco, Brazil) |
| Abstract: | We examine the local economic impacts of the opening of the RioMar Shopping Mall in Recife, Brazil, in 2012 using a georeferenced panel of firms covering 2005–2019. We exploit variation in proximity to the mall through concentric distance rings (up to 500 meters, 500 meters–1 km, and 1–2 km) and implement a Difference-in-Differences (DiD) framework combined with Propensity Score Matching (PSM). We find strong and spatially concentrated effects: firms within 500 meters increase employment and wages substantially, with effects that decay monotonically with distance but remain statistically significant up to 2 kilometers. Event study estimates support the parallel trends assumption and show no evidence of pre-treatment dynamics. We show that these effects are primarily driven by the expansion of incumbent firms rather than new firm entry, indicating that agglomeration economies operate through the intensification of existing activity. We also document important heterogeneities: gains are larger for firms with more skilled workers, in managerial occupations, and in consumption- and service-related sectors. However, benefits are unevenly distributed across demographic groups, with stronger effects for male and white workers. These results are robust to alternative control groups and to placebo tests based on both timing and spatial location. Overall, we show that large urban commercial developments act as localized economic hubs, generating positive but spatially bounded externalities. Our findings contribute to the literature on place-based policies and urban agglomeration by providing causal evidence from developing countries such as Brazil, where such interventions play a central role in shaping urban economic dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Shopping Malls; Local Economic Effects; Spatial Externalities; Agglomeration Economies; Difference-in-Differences |
| JEL: | R10 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ris:nereus:022483 |
| By: | Patrick Coate; Kyle Mangum |
| Abstract: | This paper shows the declining trend in internal migration in the United States is primarily due to increasing home attachment in “fast locations, ” areas with relatively high rates of population turnover. These locations were population growth destinations in the 20th century, with transient populations that settled as regional population growth converged. The qualitative patterns of the U.S. experience can be generated by a model of location choice in heterogeneous regions with overlapping generations when the population has a home bias that varies endogenously with the history of population change. Using a novel measure of home attachment, this paper estimates a structural model of migration that distinguishes moving frictions from home utility. Simulations quantify channels of the mobility decline. Rising home attachment accounts for much of the decline, predominantly in fast locations. Population aging explains most of the remainder but in a more spatially neutral way. |
| Keywords: | declining internal migration; labor mobility; home attachment; rootedness; local ties; conditional choice probability estimation |
| JEL: | J61 R23 R11 C50 |
| Date: | 2026–05–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:fedpwp:103190 |
| By: | Arendt, Jacob (Rockwool Foundation Research Unit); Holm, Anders (Western University) |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of private school attendance on segregation and student achievement in compulsory school in Denmark. We show that increased private school attendance is driven by students from high socio-economic groups. Leveraging variation across municipalities, grade and calendar years and instrumental variables based on private school openings, we find that higher private school enrollment is associated with higher segregation of disadvantaged children. From event study models of the private school openings and a mover design that controls for student parental background, peer parental background, past achievement and non-cognitive scores, we find small achievement effects of private school attendance. |
| Keywords: | private schools, socio-economic and ethnic segregation, student achievement |
| JEL: | I21 I24 J15 R28 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18617 |
| By: | Veronica Leoni; David Boto-Garcia; Roberto Patuelli |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the interplay between spatial and temporal dimensions of price competition in the hotel industry, where services are non-storable and consumers must book in advance. We study how spatial price competition among hotels evolves across different booking horizons. Using a panel dataset of hotels in Venice covering daily asking prices, we estimate spatial price reaction functions for multiple booking lead times using Spatial Durbin Models. We find heterogeneous spatial price mimicking across booking horizons, with spatial dependence peaking at mid-range lead times and weakening at short lead times. Furthermore, hotels with greater room variety are able to charge higher prices, while greater variety among nearby rivals exerts downward pressure on prices. These findings reveal that the strength of spatial competition is not constant but jointly shaped by timing of booking and seasonal demand, offering new insights into intertemporal pricing and strategic interactions in perishable service markets. |
| JEL: | L83 D22 L11 R32 C23 D40 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bol:bodewp:wp1225 |
| By: | Southern, Billy |
| Abstract: | Researchers examining issues of inequality focus overwhelmingly on racially segregated neighborhoods, concentrated poverty, and spatial isolation. Such focus is appropriate, given that spatial concentration amplifies the harms of poverty. But this overemphasis has driven policymakers to prioritize mitigating concentration, as evidenced by numerous dispersal policies. In contrast, scholars pay far less attention to the opposite extreme: the concentration of affluent households. The spatial concentration of affluence enables advantaged households to hoard opportunity, skew resource distribution, limit access to public amenities, and consolidate political power. Across public discourse, concentrated affluence is routinely treated as neutral, and policymakers rarely pursue strategies to confront this consequential component of segregation. This study focuses on the segregation of affluence, examining changes in the concentration of high-income households since 1990. Using Richmond, Virginia, as a case study, findings demonstrate that affluent households are the most unevenly distributed group, rapidly segregating in the city and growing more concentrated in the suburbs. This paper makes two contributions: First, it captures changes in the geography of poverty and affluence by tracking low- and high-income households. Second, it provides an intraurban analysis of segregation, detailing household sorting across urban and suburban spaces. Growing spatial segregation of affluent households reveals a planning system that privileges the advantaged, and a focus on concentrated affluence is essential for urban policy to address spatial inequality. |
| Date: | 2026–05–15 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:umdyw_v1 |
| By: | Wasserman, Jacob L.; Barrall, Aaron; Millard-Ball, Adam PhD; Lee, Amy PhD |
| Abstract: | “Major transit stop”—how these three words are defined determines what can be built where, throughout much of California. To address housing shortages and reduce reliance on driving, California has enacted a number of laws that streamline housing approvals and remove zoning constraints in areas near high-quality transit. Many of these laws allow for greater density, less parking, and faster permitting within half a mile of a “major transit stop, ” defined in California Public Resources Code § 21064.3 as “an existing rail or bus rapid transit station, a ferry terminal served by either a bus or rail transit service, ” or “the intersection of two or more major bus routes with a frequency of service interval of 20 minutes or less during the morning and afternoon peak commute periods.” In some cases, planned future transit stops included in long-range regional transportation plans may also qualify. |
| Keywords: | Physical Sciences and Mathematics |
| Date: | 2026–05–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsdav:qt8hk277vb |
| By: | Montes-Viñas, Ana (LISER); Sologon, Denisa (LISER); Li, Jinjing (University of Canberra; LISER) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how stable national disposable income inequality can coexist with substantial local reconfiguration in a small, open, and integrated economy. Focusing on Luxembourg between 2011 and 2021, it analyses how demographic change, labour market restructuring, and redistribution shape inequality across municipalities. We develop a spatial microsimulation framework combining EU-SILC microdata, Census aggregates, and EUROMOD to recover local disposable income distributions where representative small-area data are unavailable. Three findings emerge. First, inequality is driven mainly by disparities within municipalities, not by differences between them. Second, although disposable income inequality is spatially clustered, clustering weakens over time. Stable national inequality conceals divergent local trajectories: inequality declines in Luxembourg City and its urban belt, but rises in the southern industrial belt, the northern region, and other municipalities. Third, counterfactual decompositions show that demographic change increased local inequality outside the urban core, while labour market change and the tax-benefit system partly offset this pressure. |
| Keywords: | spatial income inequality, disposable income inequality, spatial microsimulation, counterfactual decomposition, tax-benefit policy, labour market structure, demographic change, EUROMOD |
| JEL: | D31 D63 R12 H23 H24 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18610 |
| By: | Jesse Rothstein (University of California, Berkeley); Ini Umosen (Ithaka S+R); Christopher R. Walters (University of Chicago) |
| Abstract: | We study the prospects for changes in school priorities to reduce income segregation in a context of centralized school assignment, accounting for behavioral responses to school offers. Promoting integration is a central objective for large urban school districts in the US, and reforms to school assignment priorities are a prominent means of pursuing this goal. Such efforts may be constrained by students' decisions to exit the public school system in response to less-preferred school offers. Using data on kindergarten applicants to the Oakland Unified SchoolDistrict (OUSD), we show that offers of spots at first-choice schools boost the likelihood that applicants remain in OUSD. Nevertheless, simulations show that policy reforms giving priority for low-income students at high-income schools can substantially reduce segregation with minimal impacts on retention in the district. |
| JEL: | I21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bfi:wpaper:2026-38 |
| By: | Yihan Hu; Cemil Selcuk |
| Abstract: | The US housing market exhibits pronounced seasonal cycles: prices and sales rise through spring, peak in summer, and decline through autumn and winter. Since 2021, this pattern has shifted earlier in the calendar year, with spring strengthening at the expense of the traditional summer peak. A leading explanation for housing market seasonality is the search-and-matching model of Ngai and Tenreyro (2014), which links these cycles to household mobility through a thick-market mechanism. In this framework, periods with higher mobility generate thicker markets and higher prices and transaction volumes. Viewed through this lens, a shift in the seasonal cycle of prices and sales raises the question of whether the timing of household moves has changed. Did residential mobility shift earlier in the calendar year after 2021? We find that it did. Using SIPP data, and corroborating evidence from Google Trends indicators, we document a post-2021 shift in mobility toward spring. We extend the model to a monthly frequency, prove the existence and uniqueness of the equilibrium, and calibrate it to the observed mobility patterns. The calibrated model reproduces the spring shift in both prices and transaction volumes, consistent with the view that a change in the timing of household mobility alone can account for the recent shift in housing market seasonality. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.21358 |
| By: | Léonard Moulin; Valeria Maria Urbano; Lorenzo Maraviglia |
| Abstract: | Congestion pricing policies have been implemented in several cities to reduce traffic congestion and mitigate environmental impacts in urban areas. However, the externalities of such policies may extend beyond traffic reduction, potentially generating indirect effects on health and, consequently, on children’s educational outcomes. This study examines the impact of the congestion policy Area C introduced in Milan in 2012 on the academic performance of primary school pupils. Using a differencein- differences design and individual-level data from academic years 2009/2010 to 2018/2019, we analyze students’ outcomes across grades and subjects based on standardized tests from INVALSI. Our findings show statistically significant positive effects for second-grade students in both Mathematics and Italian, while no significant effects emerge for fifth-grade students. Moreover, the effects are heterogeneous across parental occupational backgrounds, with the largest gains observed among children from lower occupational backgrounds. Our results show that environmental regulation can generate meaningful equity-enhancing effects, narrowing early academic inequalities that mirror the socioeconomic structure of the city. |
| Keywords: | Low-emission zones, congestion policy, air pollution, student achievement, educational inequality, difference-in-differences, Italy, REUSSITE SCOLAIRE / EDUCATIONAL ACHIEVEMENT, POPULATION SCOLAIRE / SCHOOL POPULATION, ENSEIGNEMENT PRIMAIRE / PRIMARY EDUCATION, CIRCULATION URBAINE / URBAN TRAFFIC, POLITIQUE DE L'ENVIRONNEMENT / ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY, POLLUTION ATMOSPHERIQUE / AIR POLLUTION, ITALIE / ITALY |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:idg:wpaper:fbdrrp4bvb1v4zsxa0xr |
| By: | Nikita Melnikov; Carlos Schmidt-Padilla; Maria Micaela Sviatschi |
| Abstract: | We study how criminal organizations affect economic development. We exploit a natural experiment in El Salvador, where these criminal organizations emerged due to an exogenous shift in American immigration policy that led to the deportation of gang leaders from the United States to El Salvador. Using a spatial regression discontinuity design that focuses on the gang-created system of borders, we find that individuals in gang-controlled neighborhoods have less material well-being, income, and education than individuals living only 50 meters away but outside of gang territory. None of these discontinuities existed before the arrival of the gangs. A key mechanism behind the results is that gangs restrict individuals’ mobility, affecting their labor-market options by preventing them from commuting to other parts of the city. The results are not determined by high rates of selective migration, differential exposure to extortion and violence, or differences in public goods provision. |
| Keywords: | Gangs, Development, Mobility, Crime |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unl:novafr:wp2501 |
| By: | Ben Sprung-Keyser; Sonya Porter |
| Abstract: | We examine how place shapes the production of human capital across the lifecycle. We ask: do those places that most effectively produce human capital in childhood also have local labor markets that do so in adulthood? We consider the following determinants of wages across place: 1) location-specific wage premiums, 2) adult human capital accumulation due to local labor market exposure, and 3) childhood human capital accumulation. We construct estimates of location wage premiums using AKM-style estimates of movers across US commuting zones and validate these estimates using evidence from plausibly exogenous out-migration from New Orleans in response to Hurricane Katrina. Next, we examine differential earnings trajectories among movers to construct estimates of human capital accumulation due to labor market exposure. We validate these estimates using wage changes of multi-time movers. Finally, we estimate the impact of place on childhood human capital production using age variation in moves during childhood. Crucially, our estimates of location wage premiums and adult human capital accumulation allow us to construct estimates of the causal effect of place during childhood that are not confounded by correlated labor market exposure. Using these estimates, we show there is a tradeoff between those places that most effectively produce human capital in childhood and the local labor markets that do so in adulthood. We find that each 1-rank increase in earnings due to adult labor market exposure trades off with a 0.5 rank decrease in earnings due to the local childhood environment. This pattern is closely linked to city size, as adult human capital accumulation generally increases with city size, while childhood human capital accumulation falls. These divergent trajectories are associated with differences in both the physical structure of cities and the nature of social interaction therein. |
| JEL: | H0 J0 J24 J62 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35203 |
| By: | Kassaballi, Zouhier |
| Abstract: | This paper evaluates the effectiveness of a low-cost intervention combining Mobile-Assisted Language Learning (MALL) with behavioral economics insights, specifically motivational framing and near-peer role models. Using a randomized controlled trial among 317 migrants and refugees in German integration courses across six cities, I examine whether such an intervention can shift learning behavior and improve German language proficiency. The intervention raised adoption of the official state-recommended app "Ankommen" from 5% to 46% and doubled daily mobile learning time from 15 to 30 minutes. Intention-to-treat estimates show treatment increased self-reported German proficiency by 0.3 standard deviations, while Complier Average Causal Effect estimates indicate actual MALL adoption improved language skills by 0.76 to 0.83 standard deviations. These findings demonstrate that a brief, replicable encouragement intervention can meaningfully complement formal language instruction at negligible cost, offering a scalable policy tool for integration programs across Europe. |
| Keywords: | Mobile-Assisted Language Learning, Migration, Integration, Language Acquisition, Randomized Controlled Trial |
| JEL: | C93 I29 J15 J24 J61 |
| Date: | 2026–05–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:129066 |
| By: | Vaibhav Rangan |
| Abstract: | I study coordination failures in housing development markets with network effects, where the value of building depends on aggregate supply. When network effects are sufficiently strong and convex, multiple equilibria arise: a low-supply coordination failure and a high-supply outcome. Without a coordination mechanism, equilibrium is indeterminate. I introduce a large developer who moves first in a Stackelberg game, committing to housing supply before atomistic developers make entry decisions. The main result is that the large developer always commits at least to the high-supply equilibrium, eliminating the coordination failure by pushing past the unstable threshold that separates the low and high outcomes. The result is unconditional; it holds for general demand functions and cost distributions, and does not depend on which stable continuation equilibrium materializes. The leader's commitment inverts standard monopoly intuition: first-mover commitment can improve welfare by resolving a coordination problem that atomistic markets cannot solve on their own. I also characterize when the developer builds beyond the high equilibrium into a monopoly region, and show that the market underprovides housing relative to the social optimum. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.12559 |
| By: | Ylenia Brilli (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice); Elena Cottini (Catholic University of the Sacred Heart); Paolo Ghinetti (University of Eastern Piedmont); Gloria Moroni (Ca’ Foscari University of Venice) |
| Abstract: | University systems in many countries expanded by establishing new institutions in areas previously lacking higher education. We study Italy's postwar university expansion, which opened the first faculties in provinces that had never hosted one. Exploiting variation in the timing of these openings across provinces and birth cohorts in an event-study design, we find that local access increased graduation rates by 3.2 percentage points on average across treated cohorts (approximately 26 percent relative to the pre-treatment mean), with a sharp discontinuity of 1.2 percentage points at the enrollment-age threshold. The effect is significant across all urbanization levels and increasing in more urbanized provinces, consistent with complementarities between university access and local labour market conditions. Women benefited disproportionately, though gender gaps in labour market outcomes narrowed by less than those in education. Spillover effects to neighbouring provinces exist but are of secondary magnitude, with the local effect approximately twice the size of the neighbour effect. At the province level, these first openings reduced educational disparities between provinces that gained a university and those that remained unserved. |
| Keywords: | Tertiary education, Higher education expansion, Gender gap, spatial inequality |
| JEL: | I23 J16 J21 J24 H55 R12 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ven:wpaper:2026:17 |
| By: | Claudio Barbieri (European Central Bank); Mattia Guerini (Università di Brescia and Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Mauro Napoletano (Université Côte d’Azur, CNRS, GREDEG; Institute of Economics, Sant’Anna School of Advanced Studies and Sciences Po, OFCE) |
| Abstract: | We investigate the structure and evolution of credit growth across Italian provinces. Using an econometric approach based on Random Matrix Theory, we decompose regional credit dynamics into common and idiosyncratic components. We use a longitudinal dataset of credit at the provincial level (NUTS-3 regions) covering the period 2000–2020 and document substantial heterogeneity in the synchronization of credit growth across local economies. Our results suggest that, while aggregate credit growth is largely driven by a strong common component, substantial heterogeneity emerges across disaggregated credit categories. Household mortgage lending displays strong and persistent co-movement across provinces, whereas corporate mortgages and unsecured credit are characterized by higher dispersion and relatively weaker common dynamics. Regional divergence intensifies sharply between 2010 and 2014, coinciding with the European sovereign debt crisis, suggesting a fragmentation of local credit supply and demand. Importantly, divergence does not display any clear geographical pattern, underscoring the role of nonspatial factors in shaping regional credit dynamics. |
| Keywords: | Credit growth, Regional heterogeneity, Local credit markets, Synchronization |
| JEL: | C38 E51 G21 R12 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2026.15 |
| By: | Suvy Qin; John L. Voorheis |
| Abstract: | Flooding is among the most salient natural hazards facing households in the United States. A large body of evidence has documented a pattern of disproportionate social vulnerability in floodplains. However, little evidence exists on how household-level exposure to flood risk is distributed. We fill this gap by combining parcel-level flood risk with confidential linked survey and administrative data held at the US Census Bureau. Although net migration to Census blocks in floodplains has increased in recent years, there has been essentially no net migration to parcels with flood risk or change in the overall share of households living in floodplains. Income gradients in flood risk are highly non-linear at the household level, with slightly negative income gradients for the bottom 90 percentiles of the income distribution that are dwarfed by disproportionate exposure in the top decile, especially when considering multiple property ownership. This nonlinearity is largely driven by differences in building type and homeownership within narrow income groups. In contrast to the conclusions in the literature using aggregate data, our household-level analysis suggests that households in floodplains are less disadvantaged and increasingly protected from the impacts of flooding, even as a vulnerable subpopulation of low-income, uninsured homeowners remains. |
| JEL: | Q0 Q5 Q54 R30 |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35204 |