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on Urban Economics and Policy |
| By: | Yashvant Premchand (Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam); Peter Mulder (Utrecht University) |
| Abstract: | Where should we build new housing under growing climate hazards? This paper develops a framework that balances the economic benefits of density against the geographically varying costs of climate adaptation. We apply it to the Netherlands, where demand for new housing is high, but much of the land lies in floodplains or subsidence-prone areas. Agglomeration benefits are proxied by land values, while adaptation costs are derived from engineering estimates of flood protection and soil subsidence. Combining these data allows us to map spatial trade-offs and identify where development remains welfare-enhancing. Our findings show that dense cities continue to generate strong net welfare gains, even in places with high costs, while low-density settlements generate a welfare loss for new housing. We identify density thresholds above which housing development becomes feasible. Many medium-sized Dutch cities already exceed these thresholds, making densification more beneficial than peripheral expansion. Climate adaptation thus strengthens—rather than weakens—the case for urban densification. |
| Keywords: | Housing development, Climate adaptation, Agglomeration effects, Land values, Urban density |
| JEL: | Q54 R11 R14 R31 R58 |
| Date: | 2025–12–18 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20250073 |
| By: | Ronan C. Lyons; Allison Shertzer; Rowena Gray |
| Abstract: | The Rent of Primary Residence (RoPR) series constructed by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) implies that nominal rental prices increased by just 2.6% per year from 1914 to 2006 while overall prices grew by 3.3%. We show that this “falling real rents” puzzle can be explained by the evolving treatment of shelter in the Consumer Price Index (CPI). In this paper we construct a new, methodologically consistent shelter price series using the Historical Housing Prices (HHP) Project rental index. We also construct a revised set of shelter weights going back to 1914 and combine them with the price series to create an alternate CPI that applies the owners’ equivalent rent (OER) concept of shelter consistently across time. The HHP shelter price series increases by a factor of 28.4 (compared with the 10.7 increase in RoPR) and lifts average CPI growth from 3.3% to 3.6% per year. The revised series eliminates the long-run decline in real rents in the CPI and provides a new benchmark for assessing trends in the cost of living and real income in the U.S. over the twentieth century. |
| JEL: | N01 O18 R3 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35124 |
| By: | Daniel Broxterman; William Larson; Anthony Yezer |
| Abstract: | Characterizing the level and change of housing prices in cities is central to many empirical questions, whether prices are measured using rents or asset values. The task is complicated by the heterogeneity of the housing stock, the joint consumption of housing and neighborhood, and differences in accessibility. This paper focuses on intra-city location which, based on economic theory, is systematically related to housing prices. The final conclusion is that a sufficient statistic to describe both the level of and change in the average housing price requires that prices be aggregated from relatively homogeneous market areas and weighted by housing quantities such as dwelling units or interior space. Common repeat-sales and hedonic indexes are generally not weighted in this fashion but could be modified to do so. |
| JEL: | R14 R21 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35144 |
| By: | Emma Bacci |
| Abstract: | Migration is reshaping demographic landscapes across Europe, raising urgent questions about adapting to rapid population changes. This study examines the canton of Fribourg, Switzerland, which experienced a 30% population increase over the past 15 years, driven by international and internal migration. As local governments face mounting pressures from demographic shifts in housing, education, and social services, understanding the causal effects of migration is essential for evidence-based policymaking. We study how migration reshapes local demographic, educational, and housing outcomes across 112 Fribourg municipalities (2010-2021). Using the intertemporal difference-in-differences estimator of De Chaisemartin and D'Haultfoeuille (2024), which accommodates staggered timing and cumulative, non-binary treatment, we identify the effect of a one-percentage-point increase in cumulative migration balance (relative to baseline population). Migration exposure generates modest but persistent adjustments across demographic, educational, and housing dimensions. Both migration types reduce the share of elderly residents, and international inflows are associated with higher birth counts. Internal migration increases resident students and alters compulsory and secondary-school cohorts, while international migration slightly reduces the tertiary-education share. Housing adjustments are gradual and concentrated in household composition and selected dwelling types, with international migration increasing mid-sized households and internal migration reducing mixed-use dwellings. Though yearly effects are small, their persistence yields meaningful cumulative changes. Overall, migration acts as a counterweight to population aging and generates incremental adjustments in service demand, underscoring the need to incorporate migration exposure into cantonal and municipal planning. |
| Date: | 2026–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.05898 |
| By: | Samuel Berlinski (Inter-American Development Bank); Michele Giannola (University of Naples Federico II, CSEF and the Institute for Fiscal Studies); Alessandro Toppeta (SOFI, Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | We study the relative effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and interaction of family-and school-based learning interventions using a randomized controlled trial in Colombia that assigns children to a parental engagement program, a teacher professional development program, both, or a control group. Both interventions are grounded in a child-centered learning approach that emphasizes active engagement and the progression from informal to formal mathematical understanding. Each intervention independently generates sizable and statistically similar gains in early numeracy (0.17‡and 0.20‡). Combining them produces noadditional learning gains, suggesting that the two interventions act as substitutes over thetime horizon and skill domain we study. When benefits accruing to future cohorts are takeninto account, the teacher development program becomes at least as cost-effective as, andpotentially more cost-effective than, the parental engagement intervention. Our results sug-gest that, in this setting, strategically concentrating resources on a single binding constraint– either at home or in school – maximizes the short-run learning gains per dollar spent. |
| Keywords: | numeracy, childhood development, teacher development, parental engagement, randomized control trial, Colombia |
| JEL: | I21 I25 O15 J13 C93 |
| Date: | 2026–05–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:781 |
| By: | Doxey, Alison (University of Chicago); Karger, Ezra (Chicago Federal Reserve Bank); Nencka, Peter (Miami University) |
| Abstract: | Between 1850 and 1910, the share of young Americans living in towns with high schools increased from 17% to 46% - the fastest expansion of school access in U.S. history. Using new data on every high school in the United States, we show that this expansion transformed economic opportunities for many young adults but widened class and racial inequalities. We find sharp increases in school attendance rates for high school-aged children in towns that opened a high school relative to children in nearby towns without one. Linking children to adult outcomes, we show that high schools increased women’s labor force participation and job quality, while reducing the probability of early marriage and childbearing. Increased access to high school accounts for a third of the increase in women’s labor force participation between 1870 and1930. High schools had the largest effects on children from already-wealthy families, and did not, on average, benefit Black children. While the high school movement substantially narrowed gender gaps in labor market outcomes, it also widened existing race- and class-based disparities. |
| Keywords: | high schools, education, economic history |
| JEL: | I26 J24 J16 D63 N31 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18580 |
| By: | Howard, Greg (University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign); Weinstein, Russell (University of Illinois Urbana-Champaign) |
| Abstract: | We study whether training teachers locally increases nearby teacher supply. We use the historical assignment of normal schools and insane asylums to identify the effect of university proximity. Normal schools, built to train teachers, became regional universities while asylums mostly continue as small psychiatric facilities. Our evidence suggests greater teacher supply in normal school counties: lower teacher wages and more teachers per student. Asylum counties have more teachers with emergency credentials and fewer who majored in education - suggesting they mitigate lower supply by hiring in different pools. Normal school counties have higher high school test scores and graduation rates. |
| Keywords: | teacher shortages, regional universities, teacher training, geographic frictions in the labor market |
| JEL: | I2 J61 J31 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18572 |
| By: | Samarasinghe, B K D J R; Yuchun, Zhu; Abeynayake, N R; Wanninayake, R W W M P K |
| Abstract: | This paper examines the impact of seasonal climate on rice yield in Sri Lanka and uses district-level panel data covering the period from 1979 to 2024. Yala and Maha seasons are considered separately, and a fixed-effects Spatial Durbin model with a queen contiguity matrix is used to capture both local and spatial spillover effects. In the Yala season, spatial spillovers are predominant: increases in harvested area boost local yields, but expansion into neighbouring districts reduces yields. Significant positive spillovers stem from minimum temperature and rainfall in adjacent districts, while the interaction of rainfall extent shows negative spillovers. Although most individual weather variables have insignificant direct effects, their total effects are positive and significant, reflecting the overall influence of climatic conditions across the spatial system. In the Maha season, rice yield is mainly influenced by local factors: harvested area and rainfall have notable positive direct effects, with minimal spillover effects from neighbouring districts. Night-day humidity differences negatively impact local yields. Cross-seasonal spatial models show that rainfall in the earlier Maha season positively affects Yala yields, and humidity differences in the Yala season negatively affect the next Maha season rice production. Our estimates indicate that climatic variations in one season can affect another season, underscoring the need for seasonal, spatial interdependencies considerations for policy-making and implementing climate adaptation strategies. |
| Keywords: | Environmental Economics and Policy |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ags:aes026:397923 |
| By: | Geoff Boeing |
| Abstract: | Urban planners need up-to-date, global, and consistent street network models and indicators to measure resilience and performance, model accessibility, and target local quality-of-life interventions. This article presents up-to-date street network models and indicators for every urban area in the world. It uses 2025 urban area boundaries from the Global Human Settlement Layer, allowing users to join these data to hundreds of other urban attributes. Its workflow ingests 180 million OpenStreetMap nodes and 360 million OpenStreetMap edges across 10, 351 urban areas in 189 countries. The code, models, and indicators are publicly available for reuse. These resources unlock worldwide urban street network science beyond samples as well as local analyses in under-resourced regions where models and indicators are otherwise less-accessible. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2605.00108 |
| By: | Alessandra Michelangeli; Umut Türk |
| Abstract: | The Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022 caused an unprecedented economic shock, yet reliable measures of economic activity during wartime are scarce, particularly at the subnational level. Official GDP statistics are available only at the national level and with substantial delays, while no systematic estimates exist on how the war affected economic activity across regions. This paper provides the first subnational assessment of the economic impact of the war in Ukraine by exploiting satellite-based nighttime light data as a proxy for local economic activity. Using annual VIIRS Day/Night Band data for the period 2014–2024, we analyze changes in nighttime light intensity across Ukrainian urban areas and relate them to geographic exposure to armed conflict events recorded by ACLED. We estimate two-way fixed effects models that exploit within-urban area variation over time and spatial variation in distance to conflict locations following the escalation of the war in 2022. At the national level, we document a strong correlation between official GDP and nighttime lights, supporting the validity of the proxy in the Ukrainian context. Our results reveal a pronounced spatial gradient in wartime economic disruption. Urban areas located closer to conflict events experienced significantly larger declines in nighttime light intensity after 2022, while economic losses attenuate sharply with distance and largely dissipate beyond approximately 50 kilometers. These findings highlight the highly localized nature of wartime economic damage and underscore the value of satellite data for measuring economic activity in settings characterized by data gaps, conflict, and institutional disruption. |
| Keywords: | Nighttime lights; Armed conflict; Economic activity; Ukraine; War |
| JEL: | O47 R11 F51 C23 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mib:wpaper:572 |
| By: | Yasusada Murata; Ryo Nakajima |
| Abstract: | We identify a causal effect of top inventor inflows on the patent productivity of local inventors by combining the idea-generating process described by Marshall (1890) with the Bartik (1991) instruments involving the state taxes and commuting zone characteristics of the United States. We find that local productivity gains go beyond organizational boundaries and co-inventor relationships, which implies the partially nonexcludable good nature of knowledge in a spatial economy and pertains to the mysteries of the trade in the air. Our counterfactual experiment suggests that the spatial distribution of inventive activity is substantially distorted by the presence of state tax differences. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.26457 |
| By: | Razavi, Goya (Dept. of Economics, Norwegian School of Economics and Business Administration); Eshaghnia, Sadegh (Dept. of Economics, University of Chicago); Leon, Raul (Dept. of Economics, Brown University) |
| Abstract: | To what extent do childhood neighborhoods shape long-run socio-economic outcomes, and through which mechanisms? Using the quasi-random assignment of refugee children across neighborhoods in Denmark, we show that exposure to higher-quality neighborhoods—as measured by average neighborhood income and the wage outcomes of permanent resident children—raises labor force participation and market income in adulthood. Beyond economic integration, better neighborhoods further promote social integration by increasing educational attainment and naturalization. Applying a causal mediation analysis, we reject full mediation via neighborhood and school characteristics but not via parental income, pointing to the family as a fundamental mediator of neighborhood effects. |
| Keywords: | neighborhood effects; intergenerational mobility; migrant integration; causal mediation; parental investments |
| JEL: | I24 I38 J15 J61 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–05–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:nhheco:2026_006 |
| By: | J. Ignacio Conde-Ruiz; Francisco García-Rodríguez |
| Abstract: | This paper shows that demographic aging reshapes intergenerational wealth transmission not only by a!ecting the size of transfers, but—crucially—by delaying the timing at which they are received, with important implications for wealth inequality and intergenerational mobility. While existing research has emphasized the role of inheritances in wealth accumulation, we argue that delayed inheritance receipt has become a central and unequal channel through which economic advantage and disadvantage persist across generations. Using microdata from the Spanish Survey of Household Finances (2002–2022), we show that the average age at first inheritance has increased by almost twenty years over recent decades. We quantify the economic cost of delayed inheritances, finding that each additional year of delay is associated with approximately over a 2% reduction in long-run net wealth. A simple model and stratified estimates by education reveal that this timing penalty is concentrated among households with low and medium education, consistent with the presence of binding credit constraints. We further show that earlier inheritances shape key life-cycle decisions, increasing the likelihood of homeownership, entrepreneurship, and investment in other real estate. Finally, we examine early inter vivos transfers, which could in principle provide early access to inherited resources but are disproportionately received by wealthier households and generate economically meaningful benefits primarily for the highly educated. Overall, our findings indicate that demographic aging amplifies wealth inequality by weakening the equalizing role of intergenerational transfers and concentrating their economic benefits among already advantaged groups. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaeee:eee2026-16 |