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on Urban Economics and Policy |
| By: | Miquel-Àngel Garcia-López (Department of Applied Economics, Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona and Institut d’Economia de Barcelona); Rosa Sanchis-Guarner (Universitat de Barcelona and Institut d’Economia de Barcelona); Elisabet Viladecans-Marsal (Universitat de Barcelona, Institut d’Economia de Barcelona and CEPR) |
| Abstract: | This paper surveys recent literature estimating the causal effects of urban transport investments and urban mobility policies on housing markets. We synthesise evidence along three dimensions: the capitalisation of accessibility gains, the internalisation of transport-related externalities, and the rise of green mobility initiatives. Results indicate that while improved accessibility is generally capitalised into higher property values, negative externalities—such as noise, pollution, and congestion—can attenuate or reverse these effects. Policies such as congestion pricing, zoning reforms, and low-emission zones also influence these outcomes, highlighting how institutions, network design, and local environmental conditions shape the housing market’s response to transport investments. Recent green interventions in city centres have shown an even stronger impact on housing prices, although they can also create spillover effects in nearby neighbourhoods. |
| Keywords: | transportation, housing prices, within cities |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:uab:wprdea:wpdea2601 |
| By: | Osswald do Amaral, Francisco; Staratschek, Gereon; Zdrzalek, Jonas; Zetzmann, Steffen |
| Abstract: | The rise in total upfront cash requirement has become the main obstacle to homeownership in Germany. Between 2015 and 2024, the average household needed a median of 9.37 years to save the necessary funds for a home purchase. • A substantial share of this burden comes not from the price itself, but from the closing costs incurred at purchase. For the real estate transfer tax and notary and land registry fees alone, the median saving time amounts to 1.46 years. • Regional inequality is considerable: the time needed to save for the total upfront cash requirement varies sharply across districts and exceeds 20 years in Munich and its surrounding area, as well as in other particularly expensive growth regions. • A comparison shows that high overall burdens primarily reflect high prices. In the case of closing costs, however, additional differences arise from the variation in real estate transfer tax rates across the German states. • This entry barrier hits those who lack wealth and family support especially hard. Access to homeownership, and thus also the opportunity to build wealth, is unevenly distributed across regions. • If policymakers want to broaden access to homeownership, they should focus in particular on one-off closing costs. This is a policy lever that can be influenced more readily in the short run than the price level itself. |
| Keywords: | Housing affordability, Homeownership, Wealth inequality, Erschwinglichkeit von Wohneigentum, Wohneigentum, Vermögensungleichheit |
| JEL: | R21 R31 D31 G51 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkpb:340035 |
| By: | OKAMURO, Hiroyuki; NISHIMURA, Junichi |
| Abstract: | Place-based economic policies have attracted research attention. Previous studies have discussed the advantages of local governments due to the heterogeneity of local conditions and environment. In recent years, most Japanese cities have provided various types of startup support for various types of potential founders and startups for regional revitalization. However, no empirical studies have addressed local startup support by considering and comparing different types of startup support. Based on our original survey data of Japanese cities, we fill these gaps by estimating the effects of city-level startup support on local startup activities by comparing different support measures. Using a city-level panel dataset with seven periods over 20 years and panel fixed effect models, we find that both hard support (subsidies) and soft support (seminars) have positive and significant effects on the number of new establishments, whereas subsidies reduce the average size of new firms, suggesting a trade-off between policy goals. |
| Keywords: | startup, entrepreneurship, place-based policy, policy mix, city |
| JEL: | H71 L26 M13 R58 |
| Date: | 2026–03–24 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hiasdp:hias-e-157 |
| By: | Simon Fuchs; Woan Foong Wong |
| Abstract: | Over half of distance-weighted U.S. freight is shipped using more than one transport mode. We examine how multimodal transport networks shape the economic and environmental impacts of infrastructure investments and disruptions. We develop a tractable spatial equilibrium model of multimodal routing with mode-specific congestion at intermodal terminals. We estimate a modal substitution elasticity using road and rail data, and a terminal congestion elasticity using vessel-positioning data. Calibrated to the U.S. freight network, the model identifies key bottlenecks and quantifies $.46-$1.85 billion in real GDP gains from intermodal terminal improvements, with additional environmental benefits from shifting away from carbon-intensive road transport. Ignoring mode-specific congestion overstates welfare gains from highway improvements by 85%, while ignoring multimodal flexibility understates them by 22%. Losing rail network access is estimated to reduce real GDP by $230 billion. |
| JEL: | F11 R12 R42 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35065 |
| By: | Dikgang, Johane; Magambo, Isaiah; Amadu, Festus O.; Magnier, Alexandre |
| Abstract: | During economic crises, urban policymakers must assess whether housing assistance helps prevent evictions. This study explores the link between housing assistance and eviction risk and how household financial capacity influences this relationship. Using 207, 203 observations from the Understanding America Study during COVID-19 and applying recursive bivariate probit models with instrumental variables, we find that housing assistance correlates with a 4.3% decrease in the likelihood of eviction (a 15.6% relative reduction). Notably, among households with credit access, this effect increases to 6.2%, or 44% more than the overall average. We observe a notable inverted- U pattern: households with one to two credit sources see reductions over 39%, whereas those with three or more sources experience much smaller effects, around 4.1%, or a nearly tenfold difference. This challenges the idea that greater financial access always enhances outcomes. The mechanism analysis suggests that this pattern reflects financial stability rather than over-leveraging: households with three or more credit sources tend to be more creditworthy and less dependent on assistance. The results hold across various estimation methods. Although our instrumental variable approach has limitations, the consistent heterogeneity patterns across multiple strategies increase confidence in the finding that housing assistance and moderate credit access work well together. These insights imply that housing assistance programs could be more effective when combined with financial inclusion efforts that focus on credit quality over quantity, with important implications for preventing urban displacement during economic downturns. |
| Keywords: | housing assistance, eviction prevention, financial capacity, instrumental variables, urban policy |
| JEL: | I38 R21 R28 C26 H53 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1735 |
| By: | Alison Doxey; Ezra Karger; Peter Nencka |
| Abstract: | Between 1850 and 1910, the share of young Americans living in towns with high schools increased from 17% to 46%—the fastest expansion of school access in U.S. history. Using new data on every high school in the United States, we show that this expansion transformed economic opportunities for many young adults but widened class and racial inequalities. We find sharp increases in school attendance rates for high school-aged children in towns that opened a high school relative to children in nearby towns without one. Linking children to adult outcomes, we show that high schools increased women's labor force participation and job quality, while reducing the probability of early marriage and childbearing. Increased access to high school accounts for a third of the increase in women's labor force participation between 1870 and 1930. High schools had the largest effects on children from already-wealthy families, and did not, on average, benefit Black children. While the high school movement substantially narrowed gender gaps in labor market outcomes, it also widened existing race- and class-based disparities. |
| JEL: | I2 I25 I28 N00 N31 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35068 |
| By: | Maravall Buckwalter, Laura; Basco Mascaro, Sergi; Domènech Feliu, Jordi |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how export-oriented settler agriculture shaped the spatial distribution of indigenous populations in colonial Algeria. By the early twentieth century, Algeria had become one of the world's largest wine producers and the principal supplier of wine to metropolitan France. We construct a commune-level panel dataset combining census measures of theindigenous population with indicators of viticultural intensity derived from agricultural reports. Exploiting variation in early exposure to viticulture across communes, we show that indigenous population growth became increasingly concentrated in high-viticulture areas from the late 1920s onward, with divergence intensifying during the Great Depression. This pattern is consistent with in-migration driven by the relatively continuous labor demand of viticulture -unlike more seasonal crops- followed by reduced outward mobility as alternative employment opportunities contracted. These findings indicate persistent spatial differences in population growth across communes. This study provides systematic quantitative evidence linking the labor demands of settler monoculture to the spatial concentration of indigenous populations in colonial Algeria. |
| Keywords: | Colonial Algeria; Viticulture; Population growth; Internal migration; Labor demand; Settler economies |
| Date: | 2026–04–14 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cte:whrepe:49839 |
| By: | Kenneth S. Rogoff; Yuanchen Yang |
| Abstract: | Real estate has long been central to China’s growth model, yet since 2018 its contribution has declined sharply, turning the sector from a key engine of expansion into a major drag on economic activity. While policy tightening might have triggered the downturn, it reflects deeper structural imbalances in a sector that, together with its upstream and downstream linkages and infrastructure, accounts for nearly one-third of aggregate demand. With housing comprising nearly 70 percent of household wealth, the ongoing price correction has generated sizable negative wealth effects, amplifying the contraction through depressed consumption, investment, and sentiment. We document the macroeconomic propagation of China’s real estate downturn and assess the risks of prolonged stagnation should the sector continue to deteriorate. To provide perspective, we compare China’s experience with Japan’s real estate collapse in the 1990s, uncovering striking parallels in investment dynamics and consumption responses despite profound institutional differences. Our findings highlight the importance of real-side channels, including alternative amplification mechanisms (in addition to banking), in generating persistent output losses following real estate busts. |
| JEL: | F39 G01 R3 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:35054 |
| By: | Rainald Borck; Tadashi Morita; Yasuhiro Sato |
| Abstract: | We build a dynamic quantitative spatial model with mobile households and endogenous fertility to analyze the efficiency of equilibrium fertility choices and city size distribution. City size affects the economy through three channels: a larger city population increases productivity, affects amenity levels (positively or negatively), and increases the cost of child care. We find that the competitive equilibrium is inefficient due to the intergenerational externality. We calibrate our model to German county data and find that excessively large cities have excessively low fertility rates, which yields a 14% welfare loss. |
| Keywords: | optimal city system, mobility, endogenous fertility, agglomeration |
| JEL: | R12 R13 J13 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_12595 |
| By: | Marcello D’Amato (University of Naples Federico II and CSEF, University Suor Orsola Benincasa); Francesco Flaviano Russo (University of Naples Federico II and CSEF) |
| Abstract: | We explore whether and how the similarity of pre-existing cultural traits between ethnic groups in the former colonies and colonizers contributes to explain the legacies of colonization. We find higher levels of income per capita, and a lower probability of a “Reversal of Fortunes”, in the territories where the local population had more similar oral traditions to the colonizers and where the dispersion of this folklore similarity was smaller. Exploring the mechanisms, we find that more oral tradition similarity, and less dispersion, are associated with more similar (de iure) constitutions established at independence, a higher frequency of a direct colonial rule, more conversions to Christianity and better education. |
| Keywords: | Colonial Relationship; Culture; Orality; Folklore Narratives; Historical Development |
| JEL: | J15 Z10 |
| Date: | 2026–03–25 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:sef:csefwp:774 |
| By: | Maridueña-Larrea, Ángel; Martín-Román, Ángel L. |
| Abstract: | This study assesses the empirical validity, heterogeneity, and spatial dependence of Okun’s Law in a global setting. Using annual data for 163 countries over the period 1992–2023, we estimate country specific unemployment–output elasticities under two standard specifications (output gap and first difference models) and allow for cyclical asymmetries by distinguishing expansionary and recessionary phases. The results indicate that Okun’s coefficient is negative and statistically significant in most countries, although its magnitude is highly heterogeneous and varies systematically across income groups. Controlling for the common 2020 shock (COVID 19) does not meaningfully alter statistical significance for most countries, but it generates economically relevant shifts in the coefficient’s magnitude for a non negligible subset, thus improving cross country comparability. We also document pronounced asymmetry: elasticities are, on average, stronger during recessions than expansions, particularly among middle and high income economies. Moran’s I statistics reveal positive and significant spatial autocorrelation in cyclical sensitivities across alternative k nearest neighbour weighting matrices, with stronger dependence during recessions. These findings motivate the design of countercyclical labour market policies tailored to structural heterogeneity and coordinated regionally during downturns. |
| Keywords: | Okun's Law; Economic growth; Unemployment; Spatial dependence; Economic integration. |
| JEL: | C21 C32 E32 J21 R23 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:128297 |