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on Urban Economics and Policy |
| By: | Ha Nguyen; Ashwini Arulrajhan; Carlo Pizzinelli; Mr. Ippei Shibata |
| Abstract: | This paper studies how house prices shape internal migration across Spain’s provinces and the implications for the spatial allocation of labor. Using a gravity-style framework, we estimate the causal impact of destination and origin house prices on bilateral migration flows between 2007-2023. To address the potential endogeneity of house prices, we instrument provincial house prices with a Bartik-style predictor of external inflows of foreign migrants, allowing this housing demand shock to have larger price effects in provinces with tighter land constraints. The instrumental variable (IV) estimates show that housing costs constitute a significant barrier to internal migrants—a 10 percent increase in destination house prices reduces inflows by about 4.0 percent, while a 10 percent increase in origin house prices increases outflows by about 2.8 percent. These push effects of origin house prices are larger for foreign-born and foreign-born young individuals compared to natives. Rental costs have even stronger effects than home sale prices. A simple back-of-the-envelope calculation suggests that if house prices in high-productivity provinces had not grown faster than the inflation over 2017-23, about 63, 000 more working-age individuals would have migrated to these provinces, as opposed to just 1, 700 (in net terms) in practice. While the direct implied GDP gain would have been small—about 0.05 percent over this period, such gains would accumulate over time if regional divergence in house prices were left unaddressed. Furthermore, this estimate does not factor in the much larger gains from attracting a large number of recent foreign immigrants—not studied here—to the most-productive regions. |
| Keywords: | Internal migration; housing prices; housing affordability; labor mobility; spatial allocation of labor; regional productivity; Spain; housing cost; housing price; rental price; origin-price elasticity; migration flow; price growth; price response; destination-price elasticity; rental-price elasticity; endogenous price dynamics; price appreciation; rental cost; prices increase; Migration; Housing; Productivity |
| Date: | 2026–04–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/065 |
| By: | Daniel J. Wilson; Xiaoqing Zhou |
| Abstract: | From early 2021 to early 2024, the U.S. experienced an unprecedented boom in unauthorized immigration, followed by a rapid slowdown beginning in mid-2024. We provide the first systematic empirical assessment of the labor- and housing-market effects of this episode. Using newly available administrative microdata on individual immigrants, we construct measures of net unauthorized immigration at the national and local levels and exploit plausibly exogenous variation across local markets. We find that unauthorized immigrant worker flows (UIWF) increased local employment approximately one-for-one, without significant declines in local wages. These inflows also raised local house prices and rents without expanding housing supply, consistent with a housing demand shock in the face of short-run inelastic supply. Lastly, we find that UIWF reduced labor income per capita, consistent with downward wage composition of the local workforce, and strongly reduced government transfers. These findings should help inform policy debates surrounding how unauthorized immigrant labor supply impacts local labor and housing markets as well as public finances. |
| Keywords: | immigration; labor market; housing market; unauthorized immigration; post-pandemic |
| JEL: | E24 H53 J11 J21 J22 J23 J31 J61 R31 |
| Date: | 2026–03–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fip:feddwp:102961 |
| By: | DENG, Yongheng; INOUE, Tomoo; NISHIMURA, Kiyohiko; SHIMIZU, Chihiro |
| Abstract: | In population bonus periods, optimism about future housing demand fuels rapid construction and self-reinforcing price appreciation. In population onus periods, pessimism-amplified by the systematic failure of governments to revise demographic projections downward in a timely manner-drives structural oversupply, rising vacancy rates, and prolonged price stagnation. We formalise this mechanism through a present-value model in which the demographic regime asymmetrically shifts expected rent growth and the discount rate, and test it using annual panel data for 16 advanced economies over 1975- 2019. Pooled mean-group estimation shows that a rising old-age share significantly depresses long-run real house prices; the unanticipated ageing component (-8.826) substantially exceeds the government-projected component (-5.005). A rising youth share raises prices. Demographic structure further conditions monetary policy transmission: interest-rate cuts stimulate housing markets far more strongly in young than in ageing economies. |
| Keywords: | demographic optimism, demographic pessimism, population bonus and onus, housing vacancy and oversupply, demographic forecast errors |
| JEL: | E31 J11 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:rcesrs:dp26-2 |
| By: | Alessio Chiodin (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei); Matteo Manera (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Department of Economics, Management and Statistics-DEMS, University of Milano-Bicocca); Paolo Maranzano (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Department of Economics, Management and Statistics-DEMS, University of Milano-Bicocca); Gianluca Monturano (Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei and Department of Economics, Management and Business Law, University of Bari) |
| Abstract: | The COVID-19 pandemic generated highly heterogeneous economic effects across territories, reflecting differences in local production structures and spatial organization. This paper examines the geography of short-run economic fragility during the first wave of the pandemic by identifying spatially-coherent clusters of municipalities exposed to lockdown-induced shutdowns. Using municipal-level data on Italian suspended firms, workers, and value added in Spring 2020, we apply a Ward-like hierarchical clustering approach under spatial constraints that combines socio-economic dissimilarities with geographical proximity. We first analyze Lombardy, the region most severely affected during the initial phase, and then extend the analysis to the entire Italian territory. The results show that clustering based solely on socio-economic variables mainly reflects differences in economic scale, while incorporating spatial information reveals coherent territorial structures. Industrial and peripheral municipalities appear to be more exposed to shutdown measures than large service-oriented urban centers. At the national level, spatial partitions reproduce Italy’s hierarchical territorial structure, from the North–South divide to intermediate macro-regions. These findings highlight the role of spatially targeted policies and the importance of pre-existing territorial structures in shaping the economic impact of systemic shocks. |
| Keywords: | COVID-19, Economic fragility, Spatial clustering, Spatial Econometrics |
| JEL: | R12 R15 C38 O18 D22 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2026.10 |
| By: | Seltzer, Andrew; Wadsworth, Jonathan |
| Abstract: | This paper examines overcrowding, an indicator of low quality of life. We use household-level data from the 1929-31 New Survey of London Life and Labour to construct new estimates of overcrowding and analyze its geographic and economic determinants. We then examine how interwar public policy contributed to declining overcrowding. Improvements to public transportation led to increased worker earnings and housing expenditure. More importantly, public transport allowed workers to live in outer areas with lower overcrowding rates and commute inwards. Housing legislation reduced overcrowding by subsidizing new home construction, thereby increasing dwelling size, reducing rents, and improving housing quality. |
| Keywords: | overcrowding; public transportation; public housing; working-class London |
| JEL: | N94 N74 R21 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:137932 |
| By: | Dykstra, Holly (University of Konstanz); Fernández Guerrico, Sofía (University of Konstanz) |
| Abstract: | Income-based rents in public housing create an earnings disincentive. We collaborate with a public housing authority to design a behaviorally informed program that returns part of the rent induced by higher earnings to residents. Importantly, the program automatically enrolled households and was explicitly designed to make the increased payoff to working salient. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we estimate that annual household-head earnings rise 17% ($1, 370/year) and public assistance falls 7.5%, with impacts on both intensive and extensive margins. These results provide evidence that an in-work benefit designed for salience can offset the earnings disincentive and affect follow-through labor market behavior. |
| Keywords: | labor supply, in-work benefits, salience, public housing |
| JEL: | D91 I38 J22 R38 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18483 |
| By: | Yang, Di; Acharya, Yubraj |
| Abstract: | Background China’s fast economic growth has been accompanied by rapid urbanization and urban renewal. Millions of households have experienced housing demolition and relocation (“chaiqian”) to vacate the land for urban renewal and infrastructure projects. Housing demolition can be a major life disruption and place a considerable burden on both mental and physical health. Meanwhile, replacement housing, provided as compensation for demolition, can improve housing quality and access to care, thus improving health. Methods Using data from the China Family Panel Studies and an event study model with a staggered difference-in-differences framework, we examined the effects of housing demolition on individuals’ medical utilization in the year of demolition, as well as two and four years afterward. Medical utilization was measured as whether an individual uses medical services (incurring medical expenditure) and the amount of medical expenditure if using medical services. We also explored the effects of housing demolition on health measures, namely self-rated health and mental health status, as potential mechanisms through which housing demolition affects medical utilization. Results Overall, housing demolition did not affect whether an individual used medical services. However, conditional on using medical services, housing demolition increased the amount of medical expenditure by approximately 1, 639 CNY (234 USD) two years after demolition. We did not find evidence that housing demolition is associated with self-rated health or mental health status. Moreover, we found urban-rural heterogeneity in the effects of housing demolition. Rural residents have a higher likelihood of using medical services and higher medical expenditure two years after demolition, while urban residents have a lower likelihood of using medical services four years after demolition. Conclusions Our findings highlight the importance of housing as a social determinant of health and contribute to the growing literature on development-induced displacement. The increased medical expenditure after housing demolition calls for a multidimensional evaluation of compensation for housing demolition. The compensation should consider both the loss of property itself and other associated adverse impacts, such as on health and medical care, to fully offset the burden of housing demolition, especially for rural residents who are particularly vulnerable after housing demolition. |
| Keywords: | housing demolition; development-induced displacement; medical utilization; medical expenditure; self-rated health; mental health; REF fund 2025/2026 |
| JEL: | J1 |
| Date: | 2026–12–31 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:130937 |
| By: | Sébastien Bourdin (Métis Lab EM Normandie - EM Normandie - École de Management de Normandie = EM Normandie Business School); Jérôme Picault (Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres); Arnaud Simon (Université Paris Dauphine-PSL - PSL - Université Paris Sciences et Lettres) |
| Abstract: | The development of home ownership in the second half of the 20th century has been perceived as an asset and a significant contributor to wealth accumulation. However, rising property prices and increasingly stringent mortgage lending criteria have placed this model under pressure, particularly for younger generations. Recent territorial reforms and expansionary monetary policies, such as the European Central Bank's quantitative easing (QE) programme, have produced asymmetric effects on regional housing markets. This study applies a spatial econometric model to French departments to investigate how these developments have disproportionately benefited departments located near new regional capitals, thereby exacerbating disparities between these centres and their peripheral territories. By incorporating a spatial perspective, this analysis enriches our understanding of the dynamics between housing finance and regional development while shedding light on the implications of these transformations for financial stability and regional planning policy. |
| Keywords: | Regional disparities, Housing lending market, Monetary policy, Territorial reform, Economic geography |
| Date: | 2025–09–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05568167 |
| By: | Berlinski, Samuel (Inter-American Development Bank); Giannola, Michele (University of Naples Federico II, CSEF and the Institute for Fiscal Studies); Toppeta, Alessandro (SOFI, Stockholm University) |
| Abstract: | We study the relative effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and interaction of family- and school -based learning interventions using a randomized controlled trial in Colombia that assigns children to a parental engagement program, a teacher professional development program, both, or a control group. Both interventions are grounded in a child-centered learning approach that emphasizes active engagement and the progression from informal to formal mathematical understanding. Each intervention independently generates sizable and statistically similar gains in early numeracy (0.17σ and 0.20σ). Combining them produces no additional learning gains, suggesting that the two interventions act as substitutes over the time horizon and skill domain we study. When benefits accruing to future cohorts are taken into account, the teacher development program becomes at least as cost-effective as, and potentially more cost-effective than, the parental engagement intervention. Our results suggest that, in this setting, strategically concentrating resources on a single binding constraint – either at home or in school – maximizes the short-run learning gains per dollar spent. |
| Keywords: | numeracy, childhood development, teacher development, parental engagement, randomized control trial, Colombia |
| JEL: | I21 I25 O15 J13 C93 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18485 |
| By: | DIEWERT, W. Erwin; SHIMIZU, Chihiro |
| Abstract: | Measuring owner-occupied housing services in the CPI is one of the most contested problems in official statistics. We nest five approaches acquisitions, rental equivalence, user cost, financial user cost, and opportunity cost within the identity uₜ = rₜ + c - πₜ. Using 3.1 million Tokyo property records over 1986-2025, we show that conventional measures diverge sharply and can reverse sign across asset-price cycles. The opportunity cost approach eliminates negative user costs in all 480 sample months. The dominant CPI bias source is the price channel procyclical acquisitions and sticky rents not the weight channel. Our findings directly address the Eurostat HICP impasse. |
| Keywords: | Owner-occupied housing, CPI, cost-of-living index, financial user cost, rental equivalence, rent stickiness, hedonic regression, Tokyo, Eurostat HICP |
| JEL: | C43 D12 E31 R21 R31 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:rcesrs:dp26-8 |
| By: | S{\l}awomir Ku\'zmar |
| Abstract: | The rapid expansion of remote work following the last pandemic has renewed interest in whether spatial decoupling of residence from workplace can contribute to rebalancing regional development across the European Union. This paper examines four interrelated dimensions of remote work-induced residential mobility using the R-MAP survey dataset, a large-scale cross-sectional survey of over 7, 400 remote workers across Europe collected in 2024. First, the spatial direction of post-2020 relocations is analysed, revealing that mobility occurs overwhelmingly within the same urbanisation tier, with urban-to-urban moves accounting for 67% of all relocations. Counter-urban flows to- ward rural areas remain marginal at just 2% of moves, though their relative demograph- ic impact on small rural populations is non-trivial. Second, the motivational structure of relocation decisions is examined, showing that quality-of-life considerations dominate (cited by 78% of movers), followed by economic and housing factors (70%), while digital infrastructure ranks among the least cited reasons. Third, amenity preferences are compared across residential contexts, documenting striking convergence between urban and rural remote workers, with statistically significant differences emerging only for public transport and restaurant access. Fourth, logistic regression models reveal that remote work intensity is a consistent positive predictor of relocation probability, with a transition from 50% to fully remote work associated with a 6.5 percentage point in- crease in relocation likelihood. Age, education, and industry sector also shape mobility patterns. Overall, the findings suggest that remote work primarily stretches metropolitan systems and reinforces peri-urban zones rather than triggering large-scale redistribution toward structurally weaker peripheral regions. |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2604.08252 |
| By: | Jaunius Karmelavičius; Ms. Julia Otten |
| Abstract: | This paper develops a life cycle model to study household choice under macroprudential borrower-based measures (BBMs). The model is extended to multiple heterogeneous households, allowing to assess both aggregate and distributional effects of BBMs on mortgage and housing demand. The framework is applied to Lithuanian and Slovak distributional data to quantify the impact of various BBM configurations. We find that the presence of binding BBMs can usefully dampen mortgage and house price growth. However, tight regulation may also redirect demand towards lower-valued housing, while pushing households into the rental market. In particular, loan-to-value (LTV) limits are most constraining for households with little or no initial wealth. This highlights the distributional consequences of BBMs and the importance of designing regulation to account for borrower characteristics. |
| Keywords: | Macroprudential policy; borrower-based measures; mortgages; life cycle model.; IMF working papers; household behavior; life cycle model; borrower characteristic; housing demand; Credit; Housing prices; Housing; Macroprudential policy instruments |
| Date: | 2026–04–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2026/066 |
| By: | Qian, Zeyi (Clark University); Suzuki, Kensuke (Clark University); Zhang, Junfu (Clark University) |
| Abstract: | This paper examines sectoral growth patterns across Chinese provinces during the country’s economic takeoff in the early 2000s, following major policy reforms including trade liberalization, infrastructure expansion, business climate improvements, and relaxed rural-to-urban migration restrictions. We develop a multi-sector, multi-region spatial general equilibrium model with heterogeneous firms á la Melitz-Chaney to analyze how these reforms interacted to shape regional economic growth. We quantify the model for the Chinese economy and conduct counterfactuals to identify the key mechanisms driving regional development. We find that reductions in trade costs and lowered entry barriers facilitate firm entry and intensify competition. Together, these factors shape regional specialization and China’s overall economic growth. Our decomposition exercises reveal that lowered business entry costs played a larger role than the reduction in trade costs in promoting the growth of real wages, especially in inland provinces. This operates through a selection effect, where more productive firms expand and force the least productive ones to exit, and through increased variety, which effectively lowers the price index. |
| Keywords: | regional economic growth, trade costs, entry costs, Melitz-Chaney model, China’s manufacturing |
| JEL: | F12 R12 L60 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18507 |
| By: | Patrícia C. Melo; Carlos Sampaio; Miguel Gonçalves; Bruno T. Rocha; João de Abreu e Silva; Valentino Cunha |
| Abstract: | This paper analyses the evolution of passenger railway accessibility in Portugal over the fifty-year period from 1971 to 2021, combining historical institutional analysis with a newly constructed longitudinal spatial database of railway infrastructure and services. The study documents how waves of line closures, service restructuring, and selective modernisation reshaped the geography of rail accessibility across Portugal’s municipalities. The empirical analyses reveal a pronounced asymmetry in the evolution of rail accessibility. While the overall share of population served by rail declined only moderately, the territorial coverage of the railway network contracted sharply, particularly between 1988-1992 and again between 2008-2013. The elimination of rail services disproportionately affected low-density municipalities in the interior of the country. At the same time, long-distance and suburban services experienced significant improvements in travel times and service levels, reflecting targeted investment and operational modernisation along a limited number of strategic corridors. The results show that gains in long-distance accessibility, especially along the Lisbon-Porto axis and other major intercity routes, coexisted with a marked deterioration of regional connectivity. Urban and suburban rail services also benefited from relatively stable or increasing service levels, reinforcing the concentration of accessibility gains in metropolitan areas. The analysis points to a process of functional specialisation of railways in Portugal, with systematic prioritisation of long-distance intercity services and urban metropolitan services over regional services, with significant implications for territorial cohesion. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ise:remwps:wp04102026 |
| By: | F Belaid; L Yaseen; A De Palma; M Kilani (CY Cergy Paris Université, THEMA) |
| Abstract: | Rapid urban growth in Riyadh is expected to intensify congestion, energy demand, and transport-related emissions, raising the stakes for policy choices that deliver quantifiable results. We develop and apply a calibrated multi-agent model of Riyadh (METROPOLIS2) to compare three levers—targeted electric-vehicle incentives, improved metro accessibility, and telework adoption—and to quantify their effects on traffic, emissions, and traveler welfare. Beyond CO₂, we estimate local pollutants (NOₓ and PM₂.₅) using speed-dependent emission factors, and find that distance-targeted incenves yield larger simulated reductions than uniform EV uptake. At 20% EV share in 2030, targeted incentives reduce CO₂ by 32.3% (vs 20.1% under uniform incentives). For the local pollutants, the corresponding reduction is 26% for NOₓ and 26% for PM₂.₅ (vs 15% for each under uniform incentives). Enhancing first–lastmile metro access cuts annual CO₂ emissions by just over 1 million tonnes and travel times by about 20 percent, while reducing NOₓ by 16.5% (≈4, 451 kg) and PM₂.₅ by 16.6 percent (≈451 kg) per weekday across the network. Telework at 20 percent adoption lowers car use by 5.8 percent and per-trip emissions by 4.6 percent, though non-work trip rebound can erode gains. While these estimates are simulation-based and should be treated as indicative, the results suggest a portfolio logic: concentrate electrification among the city’s highest-mileage drivers, treat metro accessibility as an emissions and air-quality instrument, and pair telework with demand management to preserve environmental gains. |
| Keywords: | Air pollution, Emission reduction strategies, Multi-agent simulation, Environmental impact, Policy interventions, Smart mobility solutions |
| JEL: | C63 R41 R48 Q51 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ema:worpap:2026-05 |
| By: | Daniel Duque (Department of Economics, Faculty of Economics and Administration, Masaryk University, Brno, Czech Republic) |
| Abstract: | Do public investments in compulsory schooling translate into the same long-run economic gains for all? Using a large intergovernmental transfer reform in Norway that mechanically shifted municipal school revenues based on pre-reform student age structure, I estimate the long-run impacts of school funding on human capital, earnings, and family outcomes. First, municipalities primarily allocate additional funds hiring more teachers. Secondly, average earnings effects for students are positive but moderate: nine years of exposure to an additional $100 per pupil per year increases annual earnings by about $200 in the mid-30s, implying an internal rate of return of about 6% and a marginal value of public funds between roughly 1.2 and 2.1. However, these mean effects mask sharp heterogeneity by gender and parental background. The labor-market return is concentrated among men, whose earnings rise by over $350 per year, while women show little response in own earnings. Economic gains for women are instead realized primarily through the marriage market, experiencing significant increases in partner earnings and couple per-capita income, alongside higher partnership formation. A simple model with skill-increasing labor-market discrimination and gendered norms about partner-provided consumption rationalizes why similar human-capital gains can map into gender-divergent earnings channels. Finally, returns are largest for boys from low-educated families, consistent with partial parental crowd-out of public investments among highly educated households. |
| Keywords: | Education; Intergovernmental Transfers; School Funding |
| JEL: | H75 I21 I26 I28 |
| Date: | 2026–04 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:mub:wpaper:2026-02 |
| By: | SHIMIZU, Chihiro |
| Abstract: | We develop a search-and-matching model of the housing market with a disclosure parameter θ governing price estimation precision, matching probability, and market participation. Transactions occur when the bid-ask gap falls within a fixed negotiation band; higher disclosure compresses the gap distribution. Model-implied welfare losses are decomposed into nine components. Disciplined by Japanese and UK institutional moments, total losses are 39.0% versus 8.4% of imputed rent. Reduced-form regressions using Japanese prefectural panel data are consistent with the model's two central predictions: higher disclosure coverage is associated with shorter time-on-market and lower price dispersion, with magnitudes close to the model-implied elasticities. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that welfare gains are positive in all simulated draws under the perturbation design. An online appendix develops a dynamic extension exploring broker exit, market collapse, and the akiya crisis. |
| Keywords: | Information disclosure, search and matching, housing mismatch, market participation, broker viability |
| JEL: | D83 R21 R31 D91 G51 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:rcesrs:dp26-4 |
| By: | SHIMIZU, Chihiro |
| Abstract: | We develop a dynamic theory of housing market collapse in which population decline interacts with information friction to produce irreversible market death. Declining transactions raise valuation uncertainty, eroding broker profitability and eliminating the intermediation channel through which most transactions are completed. We embed Jovanovic (1982)- Hopenhayn (1992) industry dynamics with forward-looking broker value functions and establish three main theorems, each proved in full: a tipping-point theorem characterising the separatrix between functioning and dead-market attractors; a dual-exit acceleration theorem showing that economic and demographic exit interact multiplicatively to compress the collapse timeline; and a welfare theorem establishing that disclosure is socially underprovided, with a convex marginal social benefit. The model delivers sharp monotone comparative statics throughout. |
| Keywords: | Housing market death, broker exit, information externalities, tipping points, dual-exit dynamics, akiya crisis |
| JEL: | D83 J11 R21 D92 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–03 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:rcesrs:dp26-10 |
| By: | NAGAMUNE, TAKESHI (Niimi University) |
| Abstract: | The traditional economic base model in regional science argues that tradable industries promote regional development by earning income from outside the region and generating multiplier effects within the local economy. Within this theoretical framework, manufacturing has long been considered the primary export base. However, following the influential work of Moretti and others, recent empirical analyses demonstrate that industries fostering innovation and creative activities also exhibit substantial employment multipliers. This suggests that industries and occupations engaged in creative and intellectual activities can serve as new drivers of regional growth. This study focuses on municipalities in Japan, where the tertiarization of industry has advanced. Using industry and occupation classifications from Census data, we define “creative industries and occupations” and estimate their local employment multiplier effects through regression analysis. The empirical results confirm that these creative sectors exert a positive and statistically significant multiplier effect on regional economies, indicating their potential contribution to regional economic development. These findings demonstrate that promoting creative industries can complement traditional manufacturing-oriented strategies. They also provide empirical evidence—based on Japanese municipal-level data—to support the international discourse that knowledge- and creativity-based industries drive regional transformation. |
| Date: | 2026–03–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:x2vcy_v1 |