|
on Urban Economics and Policy |
| By: | Ancheta, Jenica A.; Ballesteros, Marife M.; Ramos, Tatum P. |
| Abstract: | This study examines the effects of urban revitalization strategies in Metro Manila, focusing on their implications for housing adequacy. Using geospatial and statistical analyses, the research integrates GIS-based mapping and demographic data to trace patterns of housing growth, land value changes, and spatial inequities associated with upzoning and urban renewal in Metro Manila. Findings reveal that revitalization projects have significantly transformed Metro Manila’s urban landscape, driving high-density mixed-use developments and increasing land values. However, these gains are spatially uneven, with nearby areas constrained by inadequate infrastructure and environmental risks experiencing minimal growth. While revitalization improved housing quality and expanded the residential stock, the supply of affordable housing remains concentrated in peripheral regions, reinforcing spatial inequalities and gentrification pressures. The study underscores the need for inclusive urban planning through policies such as inclusionary mixed-income zoning, transit-oriented development, and community land trust strategies that promote equitable urban growth. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | cities, urban revitalization, zoning, housing, Geospatial analysis |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-40 |
| By: | Alberto Hidalgo; Francisco J. Velázquez |
| Abstract: | Short-term rental (STR) platforms such as Airbnb have reshaped urban and tourism economies worldwide. By lowering transaction costs and enabling peer-to-peer accommodation at scale, they have expanded visitor capacity beyond traditional hotel districts and channeled tourism demand directly into residential neighborhoods (Zervas et al., 2017; Farronato and Fradkin, 2022). This transformation a!ects multiple urban markets simultaneously (housing, local economic activity, tourist accommodation, and neighborhood dynamics), making STR one of the most consequential developments in contemporary urban policy. |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fda:fdaddt:2026-02 |
| By: | Bäckman, Claes; D'Lima, Walter; Khorunzhina, Natalia |
| Abstract: | We show that high-income buyers earn higher capital gains on housing using detailed transaction data from Denmark. Geographic location statistically accounts for nearly all the difference, with little role for aggregate market timing, property type, or other buyer characteristics. This finding is consistent with income-based sorting, whereby higher-income households systematically sort into locations with persistently higher price growth. We test whether credit conditions shape access to locations with higher house-price growth and find no detectable change in buyer composition by income rank around major credit expansions and contractions. |
| Keywords: | Housing, wealth inequality, affordability, spatial sorting, inequality |
| JEL: | D31 G51 R31 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:safewp:336814 |
| By: | Gabriel M. Ahlfeldt; Stephan Heblich; Tobias Seidel; Fan Yin |
| Abstract: | We construct a new micro-geographic commercial rent index for Germany to study the capitalization of agglomeration economies into floor space prices. In large local labor markets, commercial rents decline by -17% per kilometer from the central business district, compared to 13% for residential rents, reflecting stronger agglomeration benefits at the center. Commercial rents in central business districts increase with local labor market size at an elasticity of 15%, implying that wage responses capture only about half of the agglomeration effect on total factor productivity. |
| Keywords: | Agglomeration, commercial rent, prime locations, spatial equilibrium, total factor productivity |
| JEL: | L2 R3 |
| Date: | 2026–02–11 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bdp:dpaper:0091 |
| By: | Sangyup Choi (Yonsei University); Junghyuk Lee (Bank of Korea) |
| Abstract: | Leveraging Korea's unique jeonse system-a lump-sum lease arrangement that enables inference of intrinsic housing values-and urban district-level monthly-frequency data, this paper proposes a novel method to decompose housing price fluctuations into supply, residential demand, and speculative demand shocks. We find speculative demand accounts for nearly 50% of cumulative housing price growth in Korea and over 60%in the Seoul metropolitan area. Importantly, housing booms driven by residential demand increase regional consumption, employment, and output ("good booms"), while those driven by speculation reduce them ("bad booms"). Using comprehensive quarterly individual panel data, we show that only speculative demand shocks trigger excessive household leverage, creating a debt overhang that explains these differential aggregate effects. While monetary easing significantly amplifies speculative demand, an equivalent tightening fails to produce a comparable contraction. Conversely, macroprudential tools-such as lower loan-to-value limits-curb speculative surges more effectively, yet they also risk dampening residential demand. |
| Keywords: | House prices; Good booms and bad booms; High-frequency identification; Sign-restriction approach; Jeonse; Debt overhang; Policy mix |
| JEL: | E50 G10 R30 R21 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:yon:wpaper:2026rwp-275 |
| By: | Juan Muñoz-Morales (LEM - Lille économie management - UMR 9221 - UA - Université d'Artois - UCL - Université catholique de Lille - ULCO - Université du Littoral Côte d'Opale - Université de Lille - CNRS - Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, IÉSEG School Of Management [Puteaux]) |
| Abstract: | This study provides evidence that natural disasters negatively affect student outcomes, potentially explaining the lower academic achievement of students in rural areas compared with their urban counterparts in developing countries. Using data from the Colombian school census, I estimate a difference-in-differences strategy that exploits variation from an unusual rainfall shock affecting more than 2 million people in both urban and rural Colombia. The results show that these disruptions increase school dropout rates and reduce learning outcomes for at least a decade. The effects are concentrated in rural schools, while students in urban schools remain unaffected. I explore several mechanisms and rule out the possibility that the effects are driven by selective migration or a loss of educational resources. Instead, I find evidence that the rainfall shock exacerbated poverty, pushing poorer rural children into unemployment and longer work hours. |
| Keywords: | Natural disasters, human capital, education, urban-rural gap, Colombia |
| Date: | 2025–08–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05495376 |
| By: | Sam Asher; Kritarth Jha; Paul Novosad; Anjali Adukia; Brandon Tan |
| Abstract: | We study residential segregation and access to public services across 1.5 million urban and rural neighborhoods in India. Muslim and Scheduled Caste segregation in India is high by global standards, and only slightly lower than Black-White segregation in the U.S. Within cities, public facilities and infrastructure are systematically less available in Muslim and Scheduled Caste neighborhoods. Nearly all regressive allocation is across neighborhoods within cities—at the most informal and least studied form of government. These inequalities are not visible in the aggregate data typically used for research and policy. |
| JEL: | H4 H41 I24 J15 O15 R12 R13 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34818 |
| By: | Carla Coccia; Miriam Prater; Jenny Mosimann |
| Abstract: | When classroom instruction is locked to the curriculum and home support is limited, students with accumulated learning deficits face near-zero marginal returns to instruction. We study two remedial literacy interventions in rural El Salvador using an RCT that randomizes 606 households (with at least one low-performing student) from 26 schools to: (i) five months of twice-weekly, 90-minute small-group pull-out sessions during school hours, or (ii) the same sessions plus a low-cost parental engagement component (WhatsApp messages and three focus meetings), versus control. We estimate small treatment–control differences in literacy endline scores, but these are masked by sizable within-school spillovers: the average control student (22.7% treated peers) gains 0.10–0.14 SD, while the average treated student gains 0.20–0.25 SD relative to low-exposure controls. The parent add-on yields no additional gains and does not increase measured parental engagement. Evidence suggests scope for further gains through higher realized treatment exposure, improved targeting, and more intensive parent-facing designs that translate information into sustained at-home practice. |
| Keywords: | remedial education, randomized controlled trial, El Salvador, development economics |
| JEL: | C93 I21 J24 O15 |
| Date: | 2026–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bss:wpaper:52 |
| By: | Alliott, Olivia (University of Cambridge); Guell, Cornelia; Ogilvie, David; Hadfield-Hill, Sophie; Panter, Jenna |
| Abstract: | Background: Active travel to and from schools offers important health and environmental benefits, yet car use remains dominant, contributing to congestion, pollution and safety risks. Schemes to restrict private motor vehicles are increasingly being implemented around schools to address these issues, but evidence on how they might work to impact the school journey across different contexts is limited. Aims and Objectives: To explore the mechanisms through which schemes might influence school travel behaviour and how the impacts vary across different contexts. Methods In-person walk-along and online interviews were conducted with 24 families, five teachers and four local authority representatives across three regions (Perth and Kinross, Haringey and Sheffield) across the United Kingdom between September 2024 and April 2025. Ethnographic observations were also carried out. Transcripts were analysed drawing on Braun and Clarke’s reflexive thematic analysis, guided by realist evaluation principles and ethnographic observations to identify contexts, mechanisms and outcomes using NVivo. Results: Common context-mechanism-outcome (CMO) configurations were identified reflecting congruent narratives across participants. For example, In contexts where families previously relied on driving for the school journey (Context), increased inconvenience functioned as a mechanism (Mechanism), encouraging a shift towards hybrid journeys and or a full shift to active travel (Outcome). CMOs were broadly captured by two themes: i) considering change and adapting routines: how families responded to schemes, and ii) navigating challenges and building momentum: how schemes evolved in practice. Participants highlighted the potential for schemes to promote active travel to school, improving experiences of the journey and their health, while also noting unintended consequences such as displaced traffic, pushback from some community members and challenges for families with specific access needs. These experiences showed how supportive infrastructure, meaningful consultation and framing around children’s health and safety shape the impact and acceptability of the schemes. Conclusion: The capacity for schemes to promote healthier and more sustainable school travel, while also generating unintended consequences, suggests that effective implementation requires supportive infrastructure, sustained community engagement and alignment with broader policy priorities. Keywords: active travel; school journey; traffic restriction schemes; school streets; qualitative research; public health |
| Date: | 2026–02–12 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:osf:socarx:naxqs_v1 |
| By: | Ferreira, Thomas; Hoyle, Tristan; Horn, Aidan J.; Steenkamp, Daan |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the use of night lights to track economic activity in South Africa at a level of spatial granularity and periodic frequency not obtainable by traditional indicators. It shows mismatches between urban population density, economic activity and infrastructure. We show that satellite data suggest very low growth in night light intensity across South Africa over the last decade and a decoupling from economic and population growth. We show that satellite data sheds light on the implications of the collapse of state service delivery and South Africa's decline in GDP per capita over the last decade. The most likely explanation of the slow growth in night light intensity in South Africa is municipal infrastructural degradation, observed in the breakdown of a large proportion of streetlights. Other possibilities include a shift to solar and off‐grid electricity supply, the decline in industrial and manufacturing production in South Africa, or improvements in energy efficiency. However, the shift to more efficient lighting technologies does not explain why night lights has grown so much more in fast growing developing countries. These results reveal a lack of densification in urban areas that contribute to higher transportation costs and reservation wages, discriminating against job creation and efficient service provision. Our results raise questions about the depth of South Africa's structural slowdown, the ability of traditional indicators to fully capture shifts in spatial economic vibrancy, and the impacts of urban planning policies on economic efficiency and development. |
| Keywords: | night lights, satellite data, regional activity |
| JEL: | C55 R11 R12 |
| Date: | 2026–01–23 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127824 |
| By: | Kishor, N. Kundan |
| Abstract: | We propose a present value model with structural breaks to explain why U.S. house prices remain persistently high relative to rents—a pattern that standard time-invariant models struggle to capture. Our model uses quarterly data from 1975 to 2023 and incorporates the time-varying volatility of the net discount factor as a key priced risk factor. We find five distinct periods with very different pricing patterns. During the Great Moderation (1981-2001), the usual textbook logic held: higher expected rent growth pushed valuations up, while higher discount rates pulled them down. But in the stagflation era of the late 1970s and again in the recent period (2016-2023), these relationships reversed-higher expected rent growth actually lowered valuations. The two big housing booms of the 2000s and the recent period arose through different forces: the 2000s boom saw prices break free from rents, while the recent period showed an unusually strong reaction to discount rates and a new positive role for volatility, suggesting that uncertainty itself made housing more attractive. These shifting patterns show that what once looked like model failures are better understood as signs of changing market regimes. |
| Keywords: | Present Value Model of Housing, Price-Rent Ratio, Structural Break, Volatility Models. |
| JEL: | C32 E44 G12 R21 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:127472 |
| By: | Maarten Van Besien (-) |
| Abstract: | Automated valuation models (AVMs) are widely used for large-scale residential rent appraisal, yet standard models do not provide predictive uncertainty measures with guaranteed out-ofsample coverage at prespecified nominal levels, creating risks for institutional decision-making in valuation, risk management, and policy design. Using a transaction-level dataset covering the Flemish rental market in Belgium, we study AVM performance and uncertainty quantification in a large-scale, heterogeneous, and feature-poor setting, where only location, property type, energy performance, number of bedrooms, and rent prices are observed. We show that industry-standard point-prediction accuracy can be achieved by exploiting non-linear spatial structure using coarse geospatial units such as boroughs. For uncertainty quantification, we compare ensemble quantile regression and Inductive Conformal Prediction (ICP). While both improve empirical coverage, ICP is preferred as it guarantees finite-sample marginal coverage without distributional assumptions at substantially lower computational cost. Conditioning ICP calibration on bedroom count (Mondrian ICP) yields the largest efficiency gains, reducing 95% coverage prediction interval width by up to 5.3% relative to absolute residual split conformal prediction. Overall, our results demonstrate that valuation uncertainty can be materially reduced in large-scale, feature-poor housing data with minimal additional modeling complexity. |
| Keywords: | Conformal Prediction, Automated Rent Valuation, Rental Uncertainty Quantification |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:rug:rugwps:26/1136 |
| By: | Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés; You, Zhuoying |
| Abstract: | Few studies have examined the economic consequences of deploying artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics in less-developed cities, where policies have often failed. To address this gap, we analyse a panel of 270 Chinese cities (2009–2019) using OLS, IV-2SLS, and quantile regression techniques. We find that AI and robotics significantly promote technological innovation in China, with especially pronounced implications for cities at or below the technological frontier. These technologies also enhance the returns to science and technology (S&T) investment. Its novelty lies in framing AI and robotics as policy substitutes and tools for narrowing innovation divides among Chinese cities. |
| Keywords: | AI; robotics; technological innovation; Chinese cities |
| JEL: | O31 O33 R11 R58 |
| Date: | 2026–02–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:lserod:137040 |
| By: | Javier Cravino; Andrei A. Levchenko; Francesc Ortega; Nitya Pandalai-Nayar |
| Abstract: | This paper quantifies the effects of large-scale deportations on wages, prices, and real incomes in the United States. We impute the legal status for each worker in the American Community Survey by combining detailed individual information with group-level visa records. In 2024, 3.2% of US workers were unauthorized, but some regions and sectors were heavily dependent on unauthorized immigrant labor. We develop a dynamic quantitative framework with multiple regions, sectors and occupations, heterogeneous workers, and endogenous capital accumulation to study the economic impacts of removing unauthorized workers. We derive analytical expressions relating region- and occupation-specific real wages and sectoral relative prices to changes in the supply of immigrant workers, observable factor shares, and combinations of structural elasticities. Following the removal of 50% of unauthorized immigrants, in the short run average native real wages rise 0.15% nationally, driven by an increase in the capital-labor ratio. In the long run, however, native real wages fall in every state, and by 0.33% nationally, as capital gets decumulated in response to a lower population. Consumer prices in the sectors intensive in unauthorized workers – such as Farming – rise by about 1% relative to the price of the average consumption basket, while most other sectors experience negligible relative price changes. |
| JEL: | F22 F66 F68 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34790 |
| By: | Abrigo, Michael R.M.; Lingatong, Edmar E.; Daga, Erwin Doroteo Justien C.; Apostol, Gerald C.; Cagasan, Louie P. Jr.; Gavan, Dianne Stephanie A.; Paquibot, Jesusa L.; Perez, Tania Dew S.; Relos, Charlotte Marjorie L. |
| Abstract: | In 2023, the Philippine Department of Education introduced the MATATAG K to 10 Curriculum to address persistent learning deficiencies through curriculum decongestion, strengthened foundational skills, and clearer 21st-century competency frameworks. This paper evaluates its first-year pilot implementation using a cluster randomized trial of 70 schools across seven regions, with mixed-methods data from curriculum reviews, teacher survey, classroom observations, and student assessments. Results on near-term impacts from the first year of the pilot are quite encouraging. Grade 2 students in pilot schools demonstrated large, statistically significant learning gains across all subjects, while students in Grades 5 and 8 showed selective improvements across subjects. Teachers reported improved flexibility in lesson delivery, enhanced contextualization of content, and potential for more meaningful student engagement. However, issues such as inadequate instructional support, delayed provision of learning materials, insufficient training, and uneven articulation of competencies across grade levels were identified. Teacher collaboration increased substantially, but teacher physiological wellbeing declined, which may be due to extended lesson planning time. The findings demonstrate that curriculum decongestion can improve foundational learning in year one, but sustained implementation support, particularly for teacher training, resource delivery, and wellbeing, is essential for scaling the reform successfully. With continued support and refinement, the revised K to 10 curriculum holds promise for transforming Philippine basic education and aligning it with both national aspirations and global standards. Comments to this paper are welcome within 60 days from the date of posting. Email publications@pids.gov.ph. |
| Keywords: | MATATAG Curriculum, Curriculum reform, Impact evaluation, Permutation tests, Framework method |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:phd:dpaper:dp_2025-53 |
| By: | Sarthak Joshi (School of Economics, University of Edinburgh) |
| Abstract: | Labor demand shocks unfold unevenly across space. I show that the resulting spatial mismatch can disproportionately impact women’s employment due to gender-based differences in the propensity to commute. My empirical strategy uses rising Chinese import competition in the early 2000s to generate variation in the spatial distribution of work within commuting zones in India. Rising trade exposure caused firms to expand in the urban core and contract in the rural periphery. In areas where firms reduced hiring, women’s employment was significantly lower than men’s after 10 years. While men started commuting across the rural-urban boundary to take up jobs in expanding sectors, women either switched to locally available agriculture or dropped out of the labor force. In line with women being more reliant on public transport, gender gaps are smaller in commuting zones with better bus connectivity. I find similar negative impacts for women regardless of marital status and education level, suggesting that results are not driven by household-level constraints or increasing demand for skilled labor. My findings are consistent with the presence of gendered commuting frictions stemming from a lack of comfortable and safe commuting options for women in India. In the last part of the paper, I use a spatial general equilibrium model to show that relaxing such frictions would have mitigated the observed decline in female labor force participation in India between 2001 and 2011 by 30%, increasing total output by 0.4%. |
| Keywords: | Female labour force participation, Commuting, Spatial distribution of economic activity, India. |
| JEL: | F16 J01 J16 |
| Date: | 2025–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:edn:esedps:323 |
| By: | Torsten Ehlers; Mathias Hoffmann; Alexander Raabe |
| Abstract: | House prices co-move considerably across countries. We show how non-US global banks and their exposure to US dollar funding conditions help explain this comovement. When the dollar appreciates, mortgage lending and house prices decrease more in borrower countries whose non-US creditor banks are more exposed to dollar funding conditions. As US dollar funding conditions vary, borrowing country pairs with higher joint exposure to US dollar funding conditions via their non-US creditor banks exhibit a higher synchronization of mortgage credit and house price growth. We capture the exposure to dollar funding conditions by the bilateral treasury basis between the currency of the non-US global creditor banks' nationality and the US dollar, a choice that we motivate in a simple value-at-risk model. Our results identify a novel international spillover channel of US dollar funding conditions. Because it works through heterogenous dollar funding exposures among creditors, this new channel is neither linked to common-lender exposures nor to currency mismatches on borrower countries' balance sheets, typically associated with the financial channel of the exchange-rate. |
| Keywords: | house prices, synchronization, US dollar funding, dollar cycle, US treasury basis, convenience yield, capital flows, global banks, global banking network |
| JEL: | F34 F36 G15 G21 |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bis:biswps:1332 |
| By: | Vergara-Perucich, Francisco; Aguirre-Nuñez, Carlos |
| Abstract: | This paper examines how housing tokenization is discursively framed in Chile's digital public sphere, assessing whether it promotes affordability or reinforces financialization. Using a methodology that combines natural language processing, topic modeling, sentiment analysis, and semantic network analysis, the study analyzes content from 34 websites - including fintech startups, media outlets, and real estate firms - scraped and processed in R. Results show that tokenization is largely portrayed through a techno-optimistic lens focused on investment, trust, and digital innovation. Sentiment analysis highlights dominant emotional tones of "trust" and "anticipation, " while topic modeling identifies four themes: return performance, platform ecosystems, asset commodification, and user empowerment. These narratives, however, tend to obscure critical perspectives on equity and governance. Despite limitations related to data bias and cultural nuance, the study offers a replicable method for analyzing technological discourses and raises important questions about the policy implications of financial innovation in emerging markets. |
| Keywords: | financial innovation, blockchain, real estate, token, financialization |
| JEL: | G23 R31 O33 O16 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:iedlwp:336691 |
| By: | Picchio, Matteo; Santolini, Raffaella |
| Abstract: | We study the role of mayoral gender in attracting public funding in Italian municipalities. We exploit a novel administrative dataset containing detailed information on all projects aimed at the digitalisation of local public administrations and funded under Italy's National Recovery and Resilience Plan between 2022 and 2024. Exogenous variation in the timing of municipal elections and switches from male to female mayors provides quasi-experimental identification within a staggered difference-in-differences framework. We find that female mayors attract significantly larger amounts of national public funding for the digitalisation of municipal administrative services. This effect is particularly strong when female leadership is combined with high levels of human, or supported by a high quality local bureaucrats, and a policy environment characterised by substantial funding opportunities. By contrast, the share of women in municipal councils and executives does not play a significant role. We also find that our main results are driven by small and territorially fragile municipalities. |
| Keywords: | public funding, female political leadership, local governments, difference-in-differences, event-study, causal inference |
| JEL: | D72 H72 H76 J16 R58 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:glodps:1712 |
| By: | Daniele Caliari; Valentino Dardanoni; Carla Guerriero; Paola Manzini; Marco Mariotti |
| Abstract: | We study experimentally how children’s ability to avoid choice errors develops over time, focusing on both riskless and risky decisions among primary school children. We identify four types of rationality violations: cycles and menu effects in the riskless domain; and dominance and framing effects compatible with correlation neglect in the risky domain. We find that types of violations are correlated within domains but broadly independent across domains. To interpret our results we build and estimate a structural model of limited consideration. We identify an index of error avoidance and study how it develops with age and socioeconomic background, providing a new tool to understand the development of choice errors. |
| Date: | 2026–01–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:bri:uobdis:26/821 |