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on Urban Economics and Policy |
| By: | Richard Disney; Tom Kirchmaier; Stephen Machin; Carmen Villa |
| Abstract: | Novel spatial data on London street gangs between 1990 and 2015 are combined with local housing characteristics to produce a newly constructed data source that shows how social housing and its architectural design relates to gang presence and neighbourhood crime. High-rise public housing estates built in the post-World War II era are much more likely to host gangs than areas without social housing. To address concerns that social housing was built in already high-crime areas, localised high-rise construction is shown to be predicted from spatial patterns of WWII bomb damage that occurred in the 1940-41 Blitz. Bomb-induced high-rise construction significantly raises gang presence and criminality, with there being especially high juvenile crime rates in gang areas. |
| Keywords: | London gangs, public housing, bombs, knife crime |
| Date: | 2026–01–28 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cep:cepdps:dp2147 |
| By: | Saeed Tajrishy (Sharif University of Technology); Mohammad Vesal (Sharif University of Technology) |
| Abstract: | This paper estimates the causal impact of a large-scale public housing construction project on district-level employment. The program focused on mass building of affordable housing for lowand middle-income households. We use this construction shock in a generalized difference-indifferences strategy to estimate the impact on local labor markets. Our results show that each affordable housing project, increase local employment in the construction sector by 5 persons and 230 hours per week. Our second result show public housing projects crowd-out private housing projects by 50 percent. However, we do not find statistically significant general equilibrium effects on local employment across all specifications. These findings suggest that the local variation in affordable housing construction was too small relative to the baseline regional variability to detect a “local multiplier” effect impacting jobs outside of construction. We also find a transition from non-construction jobs to construction which is consistent with no overall employment impact. |
| Date: | 2024–12–20 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:erg:wpaper:1765 |
| By: | Osswald do Amaral, Francisco; Staratschek, Gereon; Zdrzalek, Jonas; Zetzmann, Steffen |
| Abstract: | Housing (un-)affordability has become a defining social and economic challenge in German cities, shaping both wealth accumulation and intergenerational inequality. We decompose affordability into two components: the ability to service monthly mortgage payments and the ability to meet the upfront cash requirements for purchasing a home. Combining data on regional mortgage financing conditions, household incomes, and house prices from 1980 to 2024, we find that mortgage payments relative to income have changed little over time. In stark contrast, upfront costs relative to income have risen sharply: whereas households in 1980-1990 needed savings of less than two years of annual income to cover the equity requirement for an apartment purchase, households in 2015-2024 require more than three years. These results show that focusing on mortgage costs alone severely understates the decline in housing affordability. Instead, rising entry costs have become the primary constraint on homeownership, reinforcing advantages for households with existing wealth or familial financial support. |
| Keywords: | Housing affordability, Homeownership, Wealth inequality |
| JEL: | R21 R31 D31 G51 |
| Date: | 2025 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:ifwkwp:335893 |
| By: | Coenen, Jo; Soete, Luc (RS: GSBE other - not theme-related research, Mt Economic Research Inst on Innov/Techn) |
| Abstract: | Rail integration in the urban setting of medium-sized border cities, as in the case of the old medieval town of Maastricht with its relatively small city centre, raises many challenges. The physical space occupied by underutilized rail tracks in the centre of the city is huge, occupying proportionally a substantial part of the centre city’s surface. The “urban rail integration” proposal detailed here can be considered an example of how to implement sustainable mobility transformation in medium to small cities. Up to now, large cities have taken the lead in implementing European Green Deal goals such as decarbonization, renewable energy transformation and circular economy. A smaller city such as Maastricht can add to this “large city” lead in sustainable development by focusing on what is specific, one could say unique, to its own urban development potential: in this case, the particular large availability of so-called non-descript rail space in the centre of the city offering a unique opportunity for sustainable urban rail integration. How to monetize the advantages of such integration is a discussion which takes place in many medium sized cities in Europe. In large cities, the pressure of the densely populated areas in the city is such that rail integration proposals find relatively easily public policy support, even if the complexity in carrying out such urban rail integration involves complex infrastructural interventions. In medium sized cities, the necessity of these more radical interventions is no longer led by rail mobility demand, rather it will have to emerge out of alternative, local funding mechanism such as leaseholds. Maastricht represents an ideal example for such situations. |
| Keywords: | transport infrastructure, urban rail integration, leaseholds, local housing |
| JEL: | O18 L92 R31 R58 |
| Date: | 2026–01–30 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:unm:unumer:2026002 |
| By: | Marco A. Badilla Maroto; Benjamin Faber; Antoine B. Levy; Mathilde Muñoz |
| Abstract: | We document that migration flows upon retirement are predominantly from richer, more urban to poorer, more rural regions. In theory, the local economic implications of senior in-migration are ambiguous, while empirically there is little existing evidence on whether attracting mobile seniors can be an effective tool to promote economic development among lagging regions. We combine a unique collection of microdata from France with a new empirical strategy to fill this gap. We find that senior inflows have significant positive effects on the local economy over the course of a decade, including increases in the working-age population, total employment, GDP, average incomes, fiscal revenues and housing construction. These effects are particularly pronounced among initially poorer regions. They are accompanied by an increase in the share of services in the local economy, driven by employment growth in health, food services and retail sectors. Combining these estimates with observed region-to-region net migration flows, we find that mobile seniors have become a significant force for reducing the concentration of employment and GDP across regions. |
| JEL: | F15 J60 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34725 |
| By: | Pethani, Reetu; Tjiang, Leila |
| Abstract: | Traffic calming is increasingly used by cities as a strategy to reduce speeding, improve safety, and support walking and biking on neighborhood streets. While many studies and evaluations focus on whether traffic calming is effective on the street where it is implemented, far less attention has been paid to what happens beyond the treated street. In practice, traffic calming interventions can influence driver behavior, traffic volumes, and perceptions of safety on nearby streets, producing spillover effects that can be positive, negative, or unevenly distributed. Understanding these spillover effects is especially important as cities like Oakland scale up neighborhood traffic calming programs as part of broader Vision Zero and Safe System strategies. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2025–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt9dk9s1f0 |
| By: | Vasiliki Fouka; Theo Serlin |
| Abstract: | When do people identify with their class? Evidence from social psychology shows that individuals are more likely to identify with a group if they are similar to its members. We study early 20th century Britain and show that regional cultural heterogeneity combined with internal migration influenced class identity. We develop and validate a measure of class identity using naming decisions. Exploiting within-household variation, we show that migration patterns that increased the local share of culturally-distant workers reduced working class identification. Where migration increased the cultural distance of the working class, workers were less likely to join unions, voters were less likely to support the nascent Labour Party, and parliamentary candidates were less likely to target working class voters. By 1911, slower in-migration and rising local population growth reduced working class distance in urban areas, which also became strongholds of support for Labour. Migration alters social identity and creates political cleavages. |
| JEL: | D72 J61 N33 Z10 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:nbr:nberwo:34721 |
| By: | Mühlrad, Hanna (Karolinska Institute); Sibbmark, Kristina (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Sjögren, Anna (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy); Tallås Ahlzén, Malin (IFAU - Institute for Evaluation of Labour Market and Education Policy) |
| Abstract: | We evaluate a two year school development program aimed at enhancing the quality of education for recent migrant students and Swedish language learners through customized packages of professional development for teachers and support of school man-agement. We exploit the pairwise randomized roll out to 63 municipalities between 2016 and 2019 to examine effects on student achievement and explore underlying mechanisms. Over a 7 year follow-up period, core subject test scores improved by 0.021 sd, driven by a 0.032 sd improvement in mathematics performance. Test score gains in mathematics were present for students, regardless their background, during and post-implementation. Swedish test score gains generally materialized post-implementation, while second gen-eration immigrant students gained already during implementation. Test score gains are more pronounced for foreign background students, for boys and at the low end of the test score distribution. The support program passes a cost-benefit test. |
| Keywords: | refugee migration; dialogue based school improvement; host country effects; RCT |
| JEL: | F22 H52 I21 I22 I24 I28 J45 |
| Date: | 2026–01–27 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hhs:ifauwp:2026_001 |
| By: | Bernal, Declan; Horiike, Alisa; Mills, Jackson |
| Abstract: | This report evaluates Oakland’s speed camera pilot through a safety and equity lens, using a thorough academic literature review, descriptive analysis of Oakland Police Department stop data, spatial analysis of speeding-related crashes, regression models, and comparative case studies from San Francisco, Washington, D.C., and Portland, Oregon. Findings show that officer-based traffic enforcement has deeply declined since 2020, leaving a large gap in traffic enforcement that automated cameras appear to be positioned to fill. Spatial analysis shows that speeding-related crashes are highly concentrated along major corridors in East Oakland and Hispanic/Latino communities experience higher exposure to the effects of speeding. Additionally, road width and speeding appear to have a very strong relationship, especially on Hegenberger Road. Our regression analyses indicate that camera placement is strongly associated with crashes, rather than race, income, or age alone—suggesting that Oakland’s implementation is largely data-driven. Our comparative case studies further demonstrate that automated speed enforcement can substantially reduce speeding across different U.S. municipalities. |
| Keywords: | Social and Behavioral Sciences |
| Date: | 2025–12–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt2tf101rk |
| By: | Jakob Molinder (Uppsala History of Inequality and Labor Lab & IBF, Uppsala University); Martin Önnerfors (Uppsala History of Inequality and Labor Lab & IBF, Uppsala University) |
| Abstract: | While the influence of neighborhoods on later life outcomes is well documented, the historical processes that shaped the growth and social makeup of urban areas are less understood. We address this by analyzing newly compiled geocoded data covering the entire population of Stockholm from 1878 to 1950. Until the 1920s, population growth stayed concentrated in the city center. After that point, expanding tram and light rail lines allowed the city to spread outward, creating more distance between homes and workplaces. Two main types of suburban areas emerged: some developed into enclaves for the elite, while others housed a mix of working-class and white-collar families. As a result, the upper class became more segregated from the broader population, while other social groups mixed more with each other, including the lowest-status households. Consequently, children from low-status families saw an improvement in the social standing of their closest neighbors, so poverty did not concentrate in ways that could have worsened negative neighborhood effects. We also examine the time spent in areas with high concentrations of low-status households, finding class inequality in the opportunity to escape, but little role for demographic factors such as the gender or marital status of the household head. Thus, while selective out-migration, similar to today, served to exacerbate the spatial concentration of disadvantage, the overall evolution of the spatial makeup of the city reduced negative exposure for children from the lowest-status households. Our results suggest that worse peer exposure for children from disadvantaged backgrounds is not a deterministic consequence of sprawl and elite isolation. |
| Keywords: | segregation, neighborhoods, urbanization, industrialization, Stockholm, economic history |
| JEL: | N33 N93 R23 |
| Date: | 2026–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hes:wpaper:0294 |
| By: | Precetti, Josephine |
| Abstract: | France’s railway expansion following the Law of 11 June 1842 significantly reshaped nationwide connectivity and economic opportunities. This dissertation investigates the causal impacts of railway access between 1846 and 1861 on city-level industrial development. Using a dataset combining industrial surveys with digitized railway records, it employs a robust Difference-in-Differences approach, leveraging the quasi-exogenous roll-out of the centrally planned ‘étoile de Legrand’ railway network. Empirical results show railway access increased industrial activity primarily extensively: railway-connected cities saw approximately a 20% rise in the number of factories and workers, especially in labour-intensive sectors like textile in Lille and ceramics in Limoges. Yet, intensive effects such as factory size, productivity, and wages remained statistically and economically negligible. Contrary to theoretical predictions from trade and New Economic Geography models, capital-intensive sectors, such as metallurgy in Lorraine, did not exhibit statistically significant responsiveness. These findings reframe the role of transport infrastructure from being a deterministic catalyst to being better understood as a conditional enabler. While railways expanded market potential, their short to medium term transformative impact critically depended on complementary institutional frameworks notably financial markets and property rights, technological readiness, and regional contexts. Acknowledging the historical data limitations, this study underscores that transport infrastructure alone is insufficient for structural economic upgrading without the appropriate institutional, technological, and human capital conditions in place at the right time. |
| JEL: | N73 R40 |
| Date: | 2025–10 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:129951 |
| By: | Basco, Sergi; Roses, Joan R. |
| Abstract: | The economic impact of pandemics is commonly studied using theoretical models that assume constant returns to scale and no factor movements. This article argues that a new economic geography model with increasing returns to scale and capital mobility better explains the effects of pandemics in modern economies. Our model predicts that pandemics shape where investments are made, leading to long-term impacts on economic development. To test this, we examine the consequences of the Great Influenza Pandemic on credit allocation and structural transformation in Spain from 1915 to 1929. Our research shows that credit growth was lower in regions with high mortality. Quantitatively, a one standard deviation increase in flu-driven mortality decreases credit (per capita) by 13.6%. We also document that this flu-driven reallocation of credit resulted in an increase in relative urban GDP in low mortality rate regions. A one standard deviation increase in flu-driven credit raises relative urban GDP by 9.5%. |
| Keywords: | pandemics; capital mobility; economic geography; structural change |
| JEL: | E32 N10 N30 N90 O11 |
| Date: | 2025–05 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ehl:wpaper:128853 |
| By: | Giorgia Giovannetti; Luca Lodi; Enrico Marvasi |
| Abstract: | Geopolitical tensions are reshaping Global Value Chains (GVCs), yet little is known about the magnitude of these effects and, especially, how they translate into uneven exposures at the subnational level. This paper argues that subnational regions are a critical unit for understanding GVCs and their changes under geopolitical fragmentation. We develop a regional exposure index that links global sensitivities from structural gravity estimations of GVC-related trade with granular regional trade data. Evidence from Italian regions reveals pronounced heterogeneity in both upstream and downstream exposure, depending on sectoral specialization and partner composition. These findings suggest that geopolitical fragmentation not only reshapes GVCs but also reconfigures regional economic vulnerabilities, with direct implications for cohesion, competitiveness, and policy design. |
| Keywords: | Global Value Chains, Regional Development, Gravity, Geopolitical tensions, Trade policy. |
| JEL: | F14 F23 F51 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:frz:wpaper:wp2026_02.rdf |
| By: | Darling, Wesley PhD; Cassidy, Michael J. PhD |
| Abstract: | This study addresses the persistent challenge of delivering cost-effective, high-quality on-demand transit in low-density communities. Traditional microtransit services often struggle in such areas due to high fixed costs and limited opportunities to consolidate trips, while community partnerships with transportation network companies (TNCs) like Uber and Lyft are typically avoided due to concerns over data transparency and limited community control. To bridge this gap, we propose a new business plan for cooperative TNC partnerships, in which a community-appointed service manager coordinates trip requests, distributes financial incentives to attract drivers to the community from nearby high-demand areas, and leverages the TNC’s existing digital infrastructure for driver dispatch and routing. We evaluate this business plan through case studies of three Northern California communities presently served by microtransit, comparing microtransit’s measured performance against the predicted performance of a TNC operating under the proposed business plan using a simple metric that does not depend on the specific design of the transit system. Results show that TNCs can deliver higher levels of service and higher driver wages in all three communities and were more cost-effective than microtransit in two of the three. Applying the metric across California reveals that many communities with microtransit, and numerous other communities presently underserved by transit, would likely benefit from switching to TNC partnerships. This suggests that a large opportunity exists for using TNC partnerships to provide mobility in areas where other forms of transit are less effective. |
| Keywords: | Engineering, Demand responsive transportation, Public transit, Ridesourcing, Public private partnerships, Benefit cost analysis, Business models |
| Date: | 2026–01–01 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:cdl:itsrrp:qt4q539746 |