| Abstract: |
We provide the first systematic evidence on the labor market consequences of
the 25% decline in Canadian visits to the United States in 2025. We combine
smartphone foot-traffic data measuring Canadian visitor presence at the ZIP
code x industry level with real-time establishment-level employment records.
Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that establishments in
highly exposed markets experienced employment declines of about 6%, implying a
loss of 13, 900 to 42, 100 jobs. These effects are spatially concentrated and
should be interpreted as lower bounds, as our analysis focuses on small and
medium establishments and abstracts from spillover effects. |