nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2026–04–20
two papers chosen by
Laura Vici, Università di Bologna
  1. The Tourism-Led Economic Growth Hypothesis in the Euro Area: Do Asymmetries and Structural Breaks Matter? By A. Triantafyllou; D. Bakas; I. Konstantakopoulou
  2. Local Impacts of a Mega-disaster on Domestic and Foreign Travelers: The Case of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake By Kozo Kiyota; Theresa M. Greaney
  1. By: A. Triantafyllou (Audencia Business School); D. Bakas; I. Konstantakopoulou
    Abstract: This paper examines the validity of the tourism-led economic growth hypothesis for the Euro Area economies. We employ both linear and nonlinear Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) cointegration approaches to examine the symmetric and asymmetric effects of tourism on economic growth. Furthermore, we control for the presence of structural breaks in the time series, which account for the recent financial and debt crises in the Euro Area. The results support the positive impact of tourism on economic growth for most of the Euro Area economies and are robust to alternative tourism measures. The findings indicate that an asymmetric impact exists both in the long and the short run. Positive and negative shocks in tourism and the real exchange rate result in significantly different effects, both in terms of sign and magnitude, on economic growth.
    Keywords: Structural Breaks, Nonlinear ARDL, ARDL, Euro Area, Tourism-Led Growth Hypothesis
    Date: 2026–03
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-05578402
  2. By: Kozo Kiyota (Keio University and RIETI); Theresa M. Greaney (University of Hawaii)
    Abstract: This study examines the regional impacts of the 2011 Great East Japan Earthquake on Japan’s travel services industry. Using triple-differences designs, we find significant, regionally-heterogeneous negative effects, notably a cumulative −54.0 percent inbound visitor loss for the Tohoku region over seven years post-disaster. Although “East Japan†includes disaster-impacted prefectures in both the Tohoku and Kanto regions, the Tohoku region suffered more negative and longer-lasting inbound visitor losses. Early and continued references in foreign media to the “Tohoku Earthquake†seem to have had long-lasting and adverse impacts on Tohoku’s ability to attract foreign visitors.
    Keywords: Disaster impacts, Travel services trade, Tourism, Regional impacts
    JEL: F14 Q54 R11 Z30
    Date: 2026–04
    URL: https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hai:wpaper:202602
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