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on Tourism Economics |
| By: | Harrison Katz |
| Abstract: | Tourism demand forecasting is methodologically mature, but it typically treats accommodation supply as fixed or exogenous. In platform-mediated short-term rentals, supply is elastic, decision-driven, and co-evolves with demand through pricing, information design, and interventions. I reframe the core issue as endogenous stock-out censoring: realized booked nights satisfy B_{k, t} |
| Date: | 2026–02 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2603.00422 |
| By: | Kurmann, André; Lalé, Etienne; Martin, Julien |
| Abstract: | We provide the first systematic evidence on the labor market consequences of the 25% decline in Canadian visits to the United States in 2025. We combine smartphone foot-traffic data measuring Canadian visitor presence at the ZIP code × industry level with real-time establishment-level employment records. Using a difference-in-differences design, we find that establishments in highly exposed markets experienced employment declines of about 6%, implying a loss of 13, 900 to 42, 100 jobs. These effects are spatially concentrated and should be interpreted as lower bounds, as our analysis focuses on small and medium establishments and abstracts from spillover effects. |
| Keywords: | Tourism, Smartphone Data, Employment, Business Dynamics |
| JEL: | F14 J21 |
| Date: | 2026 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:clefwp:338098 |