nep-tur 2025-12-15 papers

on Tourism Economics

Issue of 2025–12–15
two papers chosen by
Laura Vici, Università di Bologna

Road safety in urban sustainable cycling tourism. An application of the Protection Motivation Theory By Jurgena Myftiu; Daniele Crotti; Elena Maggi
The Economic Footprint of Short-Term Rentals on Local Businesses: Evidence from Portugal By Cruz, Ronize; Nobre, Francisco; Pereira dos Santos, João

Road safety in urban sustainable cycling tourism. An application of the Protection Motivation Theory

By:	Jurgena Myftiu (Department of Economics, University of Bergamo); Daniele Crotti (Department of Human Sciences and of the Innovation for the Territory, University of Insubria); Elena Maggi (Department of Economics, University of Insubria)
Abstract:	Urban cycling tourism represents a cornerstone of sustainable mobility strategies aimed at reducing motorised travel and improving environmental and social well-being in cities. However, despite the crucial role of safety in encouraging cycling uptake, research has seldom examined how urban bike tourists adjust their behaviour to mitigate risk and cope with perceived road unsafety. Likewise, the influence of information on cycling accidents and risk perception on the intention to engage in urban cycling tourism remains largely overlooked in the literature. This study advances knowledge in this field by analysing data from an Italian online survey of city cyclists, adopting the Protection Motivation Theory (PMT) and a two-step empirical approach. First, an ordered probit model investigates how socio-demographic and travel-related characteristics shape the use of information sources and perceptions of road safety among cyclists. Second, after validating PMT constructs and identifying latent dimensions through confirmatory and exploratory factor analysis, a structural equation model estimates the effects of information sources on health-protective intentions and behaviours relevant for sustainable cycling mobility. Results show that information on risks exerts both direct and indirect effects, mediated by PMT constructs, on the intention to avoid urban bike tourism. The findings offer insights for policy interventions aimed at enhancing perceived and actual safety, thereby supporting a modal shift toward more sustainable urban travel choices.
Keywords:	Bike tourism; Accident risks; Sustainable mobility; SEM model; Factor analysis
JEL:	Z3 R41 O18
Date:	2025–11
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:fem:femwpa:2025.24

The Economic Footprint of Short-Term Rentals on Local Businesses: Evidence from Portugal

By:	Cruz, Ronize (University of Coimbra); Nobre, Francisco (Kingston University London); Pereira dos Santos, João (ISEG)
Abstract:	We analyze how the proliferation of short-term rentals (STRs) affects firm survival, performance, and entry in two European cities with high STR density. Using administrative firm-level accounting data, a shift-share instrument, and an event-study design, we find that STR growth increases exit rates among underperforming firms, while surviving firms experience relative gains in sales and profits, with minimal effects on employment or investment. Operational costs, particularly rents and liabilities, also rise. STR expansion stimulates entrepreneurship, though new entrants face higher costs and lower initial profitability. These findings underscore the nuanced impacts of tourism-driven demand shocks on urban economic ecosystems.
Keywords:	tourism, local businesses, short-term rentals, Portugal
JEL:	R12 L25 L83
Date:	2025–11
URL:	https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:iza:izadps:dp18295

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