| Abstract: |
While tourism is widely regarded as a catalyst for economic and urban
transformation, its effects on land prices remain contested. This study
examines tourism and land prices using a panel of 1, 724 Japanese
municipalities from 2021 to 2024, with annual tourist arrivals as a proxy for
tourism activity. Using mediation analysis and panel threshold regression, we
show that sizable land price increases are concentrated in a small group of
"superstar" cities, specifically those in the top 5.9 percent for tourist
arrivals, while most municipalities experience little or no effect. The
results highlight pronounced nonlinearities and spatial heterogeneity in
tourism's economic impact across Japan. The potential mechanisms linking
tourism to land price growth are mixed, with possible benefits for local
residents as well as risks of increased burdens. These findings underscore the
need for policies that promote inclusive growth and an equitable distribution
of tourism-related gains. |