| Abstract: |
Tourism demand plays a significant role in a country's economy and influences
macroeconomic stability. Understanding the determinants of tourism demand is
fundamental, especially in the context of the fast-changing global economic
conditions. This study focuses on the Czech Republic and neighbouring
countries and examines how selected macroeconomic variables - namely nominal
exchange rates, inflation rates, GDP per capita and employee compensation -
affect tourism demand as indicated by the number of guests and overnight stays
in hotels and other accommodation facilities. The main aim of this paper is to
assess the relationship between these macroeconomic variables and the demand
for inbound tourism based on data from Germany, Austria, Poland and Slovakia
and the Czech Republic over the period 2000-2022. A sub-objective is to use
the results of this analysis to forecast the future development of tourism
demand in the Czech Republic up to 2028. The data set was obtained from
multiple sources, including the Czech Statistical Office, Eurostat, and the
World Bank, ensuring reliability. The analysis was carried out using the
Gauss-Markov least squares method, which allowed estimating the relationships
between macroeconomic variables and tourism demand. Time series analysis,
including exponential smoothing methods, was used to model and predict future
trends in tourism demand. The findings show that nominal exchange rate,
inflation rate and GDP per capita have a significant impact on tourism demand,
with differences depending on the country of origin. For example, an increase
in the inflation rate in Poland, Slovakia and the Czech Republic tends to
reduce the number of tourists from these countries staying in Czech hotels,
while a similar increase in Germany and Austria has the opposite effect and
increases the number of tourists from these countries. These results
highlighted the complexity of the relationship between macroeconomic variables
and tourism demand and shown that country-specific economic policies can
significantly affect tourist´s flow. The study also provides a forecast of
tourism recovery in the Czech Republic, predicting a return to pre-COVID-19
levels of tourist arrivals and overnight stays by the end of 2024, with
continued growth through 2028. These findings are valuable for policy makers
and industry stakeholders planning development of the tourism sector in the
Czech Republic. |