| By: |
Kadie Clark (Cambridge Associates, LLC);
J. Isaac Miller (Department of Economics, University of Missouri) |
| Abstract: |
We estimate the historical effects of climate change on real estate prices in
Southwestern Colorado, an area strongly influenced by outdoor recreation-based
tourism, and we use these estimates to make projections for future house
prices in the region based on a business-as-usual carbon dioxide emissions
scenario. We find that maximum and minimum local summer temperatures and
minimum local winter temperatures have significant positive long-run
relationships with global carbon dioxide concentrations. Moreover, once we
control for non-climate factors that affect the housing market, we find that
house prices have significant negative long-run relationships with maximum and
minimum local summer temperatures and a significant positive long-run
relationship with local winter precipitation. Projections suggest that the
effects of climate change on house prices would continue through the end of
the century as they have over the past few decades under the business-as-usual
scenario, albeit with the addition of a small but insignificantly estimated
dampening of the growth rate. Our case study focuses on the San Juan Mountain
region of Southwestern Colorado, but we expect that our results generalize to
other outdoor tourism destinations in the Rocky Mountains and the
Intermountain West. |
| Keywords: |
climate change, housing market, house price index, outdoor tourism |
| JEL: |
C32 Q54 R31 Z32 |
| Date: |
2023–06 |
| URL: |
https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:umc:wpaper:2309 |