nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2023‒05‒22
two papers chosen by
Laura Vici
Università di Bologna

  1. Military Expenditure, Policy Syndromes and Tourism in the World By Simplice A. Asongu; Nicholas M. Odhiambo
  2. Peering Through the Fog of Uncertainty: Out-of-Sample Forecasts of Post-Pandemic Tourism By Mr. Serhan Cevik

  1. By: Simplice A. Asongu (Yaounde, Cameroon); Nicholas M. Odhiambo (Pretoria, South Africa)
    Abstract: This study assesses the importance of military expenditure in moderating the role of insecurity dynamics on tourist arrivals or international tourism in 163 countries. It is framed to assess how the future of international tourism can be improved when military expenditure is used as a tool to mitigate perceived and real security risks that potentially reduce international tourists’ arrivals. The empirical evidence is based on Negative binomial regressions. The following main findings are established. Military expenditure significantly moderates violent crimes and perception of criminality to induce a favorable net impact on international tourist arrivals. The corresponding net effect is insignificant and negative for insecurity dynamics of “access to weapons†and “political instability†, respectively. An extended analysis is performed to assess thresholds at which political instability can be modulated for the desired net effect. This threshold is the critical mass at which the unconditional negative impact from political instability is neutralized with military expenditure. Policy implications are discussed.
    Keywords: Military Expenditure; Peace; Insecurity; Tourism
    JEL: D74 H56 Z32 Z38
    Date: 2023–01
  2. By: Mr. Serhan Cevik
    Abstract: This paper uses an augmented gravity model framework to investigate the historical impact of infectious diseases on international tourism and develops an out-of-sample prediction model. Using bilateral tourism flows among 38, 184 pairs of countries during the period 1995–2017, I compare the forecasting performance of alternative specifications and estimation methods. These computations confirm the statistical and economic significance of infectious-disease episodes in forecasting international tourism flows. Including infectious diseases in the model improves forecast accuracy by an average of 4.5 percent and as much as 7 percent relative to the standard gravity model. The magnitude of these effects, however, is likely to be much greater in the case of COVID-19, which is a highly contagious virus that has spread fast throughout populations across the world.
    Keywords: Infectious diseases; tourism flows; gravity model; predictability; out-of-sample forecasting; out-of-sample prediction model; forecasting performance; tourism flow; infectious-disease episode; Tourism; Gravity models; Communicable diseases
    Date: 2023–03–17

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