nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2023‒02‒20
three papers chosen by
Laura Vici
Università di Bologna

  1. The Structural and Productivity Effects of Infrastructure Provision in Developed and Developing Countries By Boto-Garcia, David; Leoni, Veronica
  2. Do wildfires burn tourism intentions? The case of Portugal By João Cerejeira; Rita Sousa; Carolina Bernardo; António Bento-Gonçalves
  3. Modeling and Forecasting Monthly Tourism Arrivals to Aruba Since COVID-19 Pandemic By Olga Bespalova

  1. By: Boto-Garcia, David; Leoni, Veronica
    Abstract: Despite volcanic eruptions are among the most detrimental phenomena for tourism activities, few studies have explored their effects on tourism arrivals. This study investigates the dynamic effects of Cumbre Vieja eruption (La Palma Island, Spain) on domestic tourism demand at the municipal level. By exploring mobile-phone geo-position data in a quasi-experimental setting, we analyse the variation in local, peninsular and domestic tourists in La Palma municipalities as compared to non-treated municipalities in other islands in the Canary Archipelago after the eruption. Our event study estimates point to an average drop of about 41% in domestic tourism during the eruption, with a further decrease of around 55% in the following four months. Our findings offer valuable insights about island tourism-dependent economies’ resilience to natural disasters.
    Date: 2022
  2. By: João Cerejeira (NIPE/Center for Research in Economics and Management, University of Minho, Portugal; and CIPES – Centre for Research in Higher Education Policies); Rita Sousa (NIPE/Center for Research in Economics and Management, University of Minho, Portugal); Carolina Bernardo (University of Minho, Portugal); António Bento-Gonçalves (CECS – Communication and Society Research Centre, University of Minho)
    Abstract: Fire intensity and size incite visitation decrease and recreational losses, relevant tourism variables for European economies. As a result of climate change, this reality is becoming more evident. Due to significant gaps in analyzing the relationship between wildfires and tourism demand, this paper aims to explain how tourism demand reacts to wildfires in Portugal. We use a novel approach in these studies and estimate a spatial econometric model to analyze the relationship between total burned areas and overnight stays in a touristic establishment in a given municipality and its neighbouring municipalities. Our results show that wildfires negatively affect the overnight stays in the same location but also cause spillover effects in neighbouring municipalities. Also, the wildfire occurrences are positively related to the number of overnight stays after three months, suggesting a delay in tourism activities.
    Keywords: tourism, wildfires, spatial econometrics
    JEL: O13 Q54 Q56 L83
    Date: 2023
  3. By: Olga Bespalova
    Abstract: This paper improves short-term forecasting models of monthly tourism arrivals by estimating and evaluating a time-series model with exogenous regressors (ARIMA-X) using a case of Aruba, a small open tourism-dependent economy. Given importance of the US market for Aruba, it investigates informational value of Google Searches originating in the USA, flight capacity utilization on the US air-carriers, and per capita demand of the US consumers, given the volatility index in stock markets (VIX). It yields several insights. First, flight capacity is the best variable to account for the travel restrictions during the pandemic. Second, US real personal consumption expenditure becomes a more significnat predictor than income as the former better captured impact of the COVID-19 restrictions on the consumers’ behavior, while income boosted by the pandemic fiscal support was not fully directed to spending. Third, intercept correction improves the model in the estimation period. Finally, the pandemic changed econometric relationships between the tourism arrivals and their main determinants, and accuracy of the forecast models. Going forward, the analysts should re-estimate the models. Out-of-sample forecasts with 5 percent confidence intervals are produced for 18 months ahead.
    Keywords: Econometric Modeling; Forecasting; tourism; arrivals; tourist arrivals; Google Trends; flight capacity utiilization; load factor; time-series models; time-series econometrics; arima; Aruba; Covid-19; Pandemic; tourism arrival; arrivals to Aruba; Aruba tourism authority; time-series model; IMF working papers; consumption expenditure; Capacity utilization; Unemployment rate; Caribbean
    Date: 2022–11–11

This nep-tur issue is ©2023 by Laura Vici. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
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