nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2022‒01‒10
two papers chosen by
Laura Vici
Università di Bologna

  1. Dynamic Effects of Tourism Shocks on Innovation in an Open-Economy Schumpeterian Growth Model By Chu, Angus C.; Liao, Chih-Hsing; Chen, Ping-ho; Xu, Rongxin
  2. Modeling and forecasting international tourism demand in Zimbabwe: a bright future for Zimbabwe's tourism industry By NYONI, THABANI

  1. By: Chu, Angus C.; Liao, Chih-Hsing; Chen, Ping-ho; Xu, Rongxin
    Abstract: This study explores the dynamic effects of tourism shocks in an open-economy Schumpeterian growth model with endogenous market structure. A tourism shock affects the economy via a reallocation effect and an employment effect. A positive tourism shock increases employment, which raises the level of production and the growth rate of domestic output in the short run. However, a positive tourism shock also reallocates labor from production to service for tourists, which reduces production and growth in domestic output. Which effect dominates depends on leisure preference. If leisure preference is weak, the reallocation effect dominates, and the short-run effect of positive tourism shocks is monotonically negative. If leisure preference is strong, the employment effect dominates initially, and the short-run effect of tourism shocks becomes inverted-U. We use cross-country data to provide evidence for this inverted-U relationship. Finally, permanent tourism shocks do not affect long-run economic growth in our scale-invariant model.
    Keywords: tourism shocks; innovation; endogenous market structure
    JEL: O3 O4 Z0
    Date: 2021–12
    Abstract: This paper, which is the first of its kind in the case of Zimbabwe, uses annual time series on international tourism demand in Zimbabwe from 1980 to 2019, to model and forecast the demand for international tourism using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA approach. This research has been guided by the following objectives: to analyze international tourism trends in Zimbabwe over the study period, to develop and estimate a reliable international tourism forecasting model for Zimbabwe based on the Box-Jenkins ARIMA technique and to project international tourism demand in Zimbabwe over the next decade (2020 – 2030). Based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the study presents the ARIMA (2, 1, 0) model as the optimal model. The ARIMA (2, 1, 0) model proves beyond any reasonable doubt that over the period 2020 to 2030, international tourism demand in Zimbabwe will increase and that indeed, the future of Zimbabwe’s tourism industry is bright. Amongst other policy recommendations, the study advocates for the continued implementation and enforcement of COVID-19 preventive and control measures as well as unwavering support for tourism sector development through policies such as the National Tourism Recovery and Growth Strategy.
    Keywords: Forecasting; international tourism, Zimbabwe
    JEL: L83 Z0
    Date: 2021–12–02

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