nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2021‒02‒08
five papers chosen by
Laura Vici
Università di Bologna

  1. An application of hybrid forecasting singular spectrum analysis – extreme learning machine method in foreign tourists forecasting By Fajar, Muhammad
  2. Exploring the Significance of Stakeholder Management in Ecotourism Implementation By Ahmad Salman
  3. The Journey towards Dollarization: The Role of the Tourism Industry By Ibrahim D. Raheem; Kazeem B. Ajide
  4. The Road to Recovery from COVID-19 for Australian Tourism By George Athanasopoulos; Rob J Hyndman; Mitchell O'Hara-Wild
  5. From Digital Innovation to "Smart Tourism Destination": Stakeholders' reflections in times of a Pandemic By MARQUES SANTOS Anabela; EDWARDS John; LARANJA Manuel

  1. By: Fajar, Muhammad
    Abstract: International tourism is one indicator of measuring tourism development. Tourism development is important for the national economy since tourism could boost foreign exchange, create business opportunities, and provide employment opportunities. The prediction of foreign tourist numbers in the future obtained from forecasting is used as an input parameter for strategy and tourism programs planning. In this paper, the Hybrid Singular Spectrum Analysis – Extreme Learning Machine (SSA-ELM) is used to forecast the number of foreign tourists. Data used is the number of foreign tourists January 1980 - December 2017 taken from Badan Pusat Statistik (Statistics Indonesia). The result of this research concludes that Hybrid SSA-ELM performance is very good at forecasting the number of foreign tourists. It is shown by the MAPE value of 4.91 percent with eight observations out a sample.
    Keywords: foreign tourist, singular spectrum analysis, extreme learning machine
    JEL: C22 C45 C51 E17
    Date: 2019–10–31
  2. By: Ahmad Salman (PhD Researcher School of Housing Building & Planning, University Sains Malaysia, Malaysia Author-2-Name: Mastura Jaafar Author-2-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Housing Building & Planning, University Sains Malaysia, Malaysia Author-3-Name: Diana Mohammad Author-3-Workplace-Name: Faculty of Housing Building & Planning, University Sains Malaysia, Malaysia Author-4-Name: Author-4-Workplace-Name: Author-5-Name: Author-5-Workplace-Name: Author-6-Name: Author-6-Workplace-Name: Author-7-Name: Author-7-Workplace-Name: Author-8-Name: Author-8-Workplace-Name:)
    Abstract: Objective - Ecotourism is one of the fastest-growing sectors of tourism. It is considered to be an alternative to mass tourism. The negative impacts, such as loss of biodiversity and loss of natural resources is confronted with the help of ecotourism. For the past years, stakeholders are considered to be vital for ecotourism implementation. Successful implementation of the ecotourism is not possible without the understanding, involvement and management of the stakeholders. Stakeholder management is vital for the successful ecotourism implementation in the destination, but it is not as simple as it sounds. Even though many types of research have been made on the issue of achieving ecotourism sustainability in tourism destination but there is still a lack of a robust and proper model that can assist in the management of stakeholders which can help to unify stakeholders to achieve sustainable ecotourism in the destination. Therefore, the aim of this study is to explore the importance of identifying stakeholder management significance that can enhance stakeholder interests to unify them towards achieving sustainable ecotourism in the destination. Methodology/Technique - Content analysis was done, and the study concludes that in order to manage stakeholders, their engagement has to be well planned by understanding their interests and level of influence. Twenty-one articles were selected and analyzed from Scopus and Web of Science databases. Finding - The management of the stakeholders varies accordingly to the destination due to which it has to be carefully planned so that sustainable ecotourism can be implemented in the destination. Stakeholders understanding will provide a win-win situation for the destination and make the ecotourism implementation process smoother. Moreover, the study also fills in the theoretical gap of the analysis of the studies, which is a part of a significant contribution towards ecotourism implementation in a destination.
    Keywords: Stakeholder Management, Engagement, Ecotourism, Sustainable Ecotourism
    JEL: D63 G12 G14
    Date: 2020–12–31
  3. By: Ibrahim D. Raheem (ILMA University, Karachi, Pakistan); Kazeem B. Ajide (University of Lagos, Lagos, Nigeria)
    Abstract: There has been an increasing wave of globalization since the turn of the millennium. This study focuses on two by-products of globalization: dollarization and tourism. Empirical studies have ignored the possible relationship between dollarization and tourism. However, we hypothesize that a booming tourism industry will fuel increase in the usage and circulation of foreign currencies. The objective of this study is to examine the extent to which the tourism industry exacerbates the dollarization process of selected Sub-sahara African (SSA) countries. Using Tobit regression, we found that tourism positively affects dollarization. This result is robust to: (i) alternative measures of tourism; (ii) accounting for endogeneity and outlier effects.
    Keywords: Dollarization, Tourism, Sub-saharan Africa
    JEL: C11 E41 F31
    Date: 2021–01
  4. By: George Athanasopoulos; Rob J Hyndman; Mitchell O'Hara-Wild
    Abstract: COVID-19 has had a devastating effect on many industries around the world including tourism, and policy makers are interested in mapping out what the recovery path will look like. In this paper we focus on Australian tourism, analysing international arrivals and domestic flows. Both sectors have been severely affected by travel restrictions in the form of international and interstate border closures and regional lockdowns. We use statistical models of historical data to generate COVID-free counterfactual forecasts pretending that the pandemic never occurred. We also use survey responses from 443 tourism experts to generate scenario-based probabilistic forecasts for pessimistic, most-likely and optimistic paths to recovery. Using both sets of forecasts, we estimate the expected effect of the pandemic on the Australian tourism industry.
    Keywords: forecasting, judgemental, probabilistic, scenarios, survey
    Date: 2021
  5. By: MARQUES SANTOS Anabela (European Commission - JRC); EDWARDS John; LARANJA Manuel
    Abstract: This JRC policy insight presents the main findings of an online event that took place on 30th September and 8th October 2020, organised by the Regional Coordination and Development Commission (CCDR) of Algarve, Portugal, and the JRC Territorial Development unit, as part of the project "Targeted Support to RIS3 Implementation in Lagging Regions". The workshop aimed to support the Entrepreneurial Discovery Process (EDP), a key feature of Smart Specialisation (BOX 1), with a focus on the digitalisation of tourism. The main objective was to stimulate entrepreneurs to share experience, identify obstacles, and suggest solutions to strengthen the innovative capacity of the region in this specific S3 priority. It brought together a range of actors in the territory, from business, research, and public administration to discuss issues relevant to the Algarve region.
    Keywords: Smart Specialisation Strategy, COVID-19, Tourism, Digitalisation
    Date: 2021–01

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