nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2020‒11‒23
four papers chosen by
Laura Vici
Università di Bologna

  1. The impact of mega sport’s events on tourism sector. The case of Euro 2012 in Pomerania region By Witthaus, Bjorn
  2. Modeling and predicting foreign tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka: A comparison of three different methods By Diunugala, Hemantha Premakumara; Mombeuil, Claudel
  3. Boosting Indonesia’s Tourism Sector to be Competitive By -, Darling
  4. Childhood experience and (de)diasporisation: Potential impacts on the tourism industry By Seraphin, Hugues

  1. By: Witthaus, Bjorn
    Abstract: The research reported in this paper focused on the relationship between UEFA Euro in Poland and the decisions taken by representatives of SMEs. In order to evaluate the link between organisation of the Euro 2012 in Poland and the entrepreneurs’ decisions, a questionnaire-based survey has been conducted. The main purpose was to identify the entrepreneurs’ stance with respect to the opportunities and threats connected with organisation of the Euro 2012. As many as 87% of the surveyed companies had not taken any action before the final tournament, even though they treated the event as a chance to develop. Because of football matches played in Pomerania the hotel business was an industry which expected the greatest benefits.
    Keywords: Euro 2012; hotel industry; Pomerania
    JEL: L83
    Date: 2020–11–04
  2. By: Diunugala, Hemantha Premakumara; Mombeuil, Claudel
    Abstract: Purpose: This study compares three different methods to predict foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) to Sri Lanka from top-ten countries and also attempts to find the best-fitted forecasting model for each country using five model performance evaluation criteria. Methods: This study employs two different univariate-time-series approaches and one Artificial Intelligence (AI) approach to develop models that best explain the tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka from the top-ten tourist generating countries. The univariate-time series approach contains two main types of statistical models, namely Deterministic Models and Stochastic Models. Results: The results show that Winter’s exponential smoothing and ARIMA are the best methods to forecast tourist arrivals to Sri Lanka. Furthermore, the results show that the accuracy of the best forecasting model based on MAPE criteria for the models of India, China, Germany, Russia, and Australia fall between 5 to 9 percent, whereas the accuracy levels of models for the UK, France, USA, Japan, and the Maldives fall between 10 to 15 percent. Implications: The overall results of this study provide valuable insights into tourism management and policy development for Sri Lanka. Successful forecasting of FTAs for each market source provide a practical planning tool to destination decision-makers.
    Keywords: foreign tourist arrivals, winter’s exponential smoothing, ARIMA, simple recurrent neural network, Sri Lanka
    JEL: C45 C5 Z0
    Date: 2020–10–30
  3. By: -, Darling
    Abstract: Boosting Indonesia’s Tourism Sector
    Date: 2020–11–02
  4. By: Seraphin, Hugues
    Abstract: Purpose: This study is addressing the dearth of research regarding children in the tourism industry and cognate sectors, alongside contributing to existing literature on diaspora, and diaspora tourism. Methods: In order to get the most reliable results, triangulation, which is a form of mixed methods, that enables to view a topic from more than one perspective, is used. Results: Post-colonial, post-conflict, and post-disaster destinations are relying heavily on their diaspora not only for the survival of their tourism industry, but more generally speaking for their economic and social sustainability. It is therefore very important for the country of origin to main a strong link with the members of the diaspora, whether they belong to the first or second generation onward of the diaspora. The main challenge is to keep the connection with the younger generation. The results of this study reveal that childhood experience of the country of origin is a transformative tool which can lead to either dediasporisation (if negative), or transnational attachment (if positive). Implications: Destination Marketing Organisations therefore need to put in place suitable events (and activities) which are based on an edutainment and advertainment model, while applying other key principles. If successful, it is expected that children will go through three different stages: young diaspora thinkers, actioners; and transformers.
    Keywords: diaspora, children experience, DMOs, sustainability, post-colonial, post-conflict, post-disaster destinations
    JEL: F54 F6 J13 Q01
    Date: 2020–10–30

This nep-tur issue is ©2020 by Laura Vici. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.