| Abstract: |
This paper develops a gravity model framework to estimate the impact of
infectious diseases on bilateral tourism flows among 38,184 pairs of countries
over the period 1995–2017. The results confirm that international tourism is
adversely affected by disease risk, and the magnitude of this negative effect
is statistically and economically significant. In the case of SARS, for
example, a 10 percent rise in confirmed cases leads to a reduction of as much
as 9 percent in tourist arrivals. Furthermore, while infectious diseases
appear to have a smaller and statistically insignificant negative effect on
tourism flows to advanced economies, the magnitude and statistical
significance of the impact of infectious diseases are much greater in
developing countries, where such diseases tend to be more prevalent and health
infrastructure lags behind. |