nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2019‒12‒16
two papers chosen by
Laura Vici
Università di Bologna

  1. "Incredible India"-an empirical confrimation from the Box-Jenkins ARIMA technique By NYONI, THABANI
  2. The Development of Tourism Based on Local Wisdom in Indonesia By Rapanna, Patta

    Abstract: “Incredible !ndia”, is India’s tourism maxim. Using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA approach, this study will attempt to examine the validity and suitability of this maxim. Does tourism data conform to this mind-blowing motto? Is India really incredible? What are the subsequent policy directions? The study uses annual time series data covering the period 1981 to 2017. Using annual time series data, ranging over the period 1981 to 2017, the study applied the general ARIMA technique in order to model and forecast tourist arrivals in India. The ADF tests indicate that the foreign tourists arrivals series in I (2). The study, based on the minimum MAPE value, finally presented the ARIMA (2, 2, 5) model as the appropriate model to forecast foreign tourist arrivals in India. Analysis of the residuals of the ARIMA (2, 2, 5) model indicate that the selected model is stable and appropriate for forecasting foreign tourist arrivals in India. The forecasted foreign tourist arrivals over the period 2018 to 2028 show a sharp upward trend. This proves beyond any reasonable doubt that indeed in India is incredible – tourists all over the world are expected to continue flowing to India because India is just incredible! Surely, tourism data conforms to the motto “Atithidevo Bhava”. The study boasts of three policy directions that are envisioned to add more positive changes in India’s tourism sector.
    Keywords: ARIMA; forecasting; foreign tourist arrivals; India; tourism
    JEL: L83
    Date: 2019–11–02
  2. By: Rapanna, Patta
    Abstract: This Type Of Research Through Kualitati Approach Of Phenomenology, As Results Showed That Tourism In The Recently Developed In The Various Dimensions Of The Purpose Of Such A Nature Tourism/Nautical Tourism, Cultural (Tangible: The Site, Religious Buildings, Temples, Historical Buildings, Traditional Buildings, Museums; Intangible: Send ratasik, Customs, Cultural Values), Culinary Tourism, Sport Tourism, Health Tourism, Tourism Education, Agro Tourism, Tourism, Religious Tourism, Etc, For It Requires The Development Of Tourism Policy Support Of Various Components I.e. The Elements Of Government, Private Sector, Academia And The Public At Large.
    Date: 2018–02–28

This nep-tur issue is ©2019 by Laura Vici. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.