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on Tourism Economics |
| By: | Nyoni, Thabani |
| Abstract: | Using the monthly time series data, ranging over the period June 2009 to December 2018, the study applied the generalized Box-Jenkins SARIMA approach in an attempt to model and forecast international tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka.The ADF tests indicate that the tourism series is I (1). The study identified the minimum MAPE value and subsequently presented the SARIMA (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)12 model as the optimal model to forecast tourist arrivals in Sri Lanka. Analysis of the residuals of the SARIMA (0, 1, 1)(0, 1, 1)12 model indicate that the selected model is stable and acceptable for forecasting tourism demand in Sri Lanka. The forecasted international tourist arrivals over the period January 2019 to December 2020 show a generally upward trend.In order to accommodate the forecasted growing numbers of international tourists, there is need for the construction of more infrastructure facilities. |
| Keywords: | Forecasting; international tourism; SARIMA; Sri Lanka; tourism; tourist arrivals |
| JEL: | L83 |
| Date: | 2019–10–15 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:96790&r=all |
| By: | Joseph I. Uduji (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Elda N. Okolo-Obasi (University of Nigeria, Nsukka, Nigeria); Simplice A. Asongu (Yaoundé, Cameroon) |
| Abstract: | This paper adds to the gender discourse in sustainable African tourism development from the corporate social responsibility (CSR) perspective. Specifically, we examine the impact of CSR on the development of rural women in cultural tourism. A total of 600 rural women were sampled across the Niger Delta. Results from the use of a logit model indicate a significant relationship between CSR and cultural tourism development in oil host communities in Nigeria. This implies that CSR of a multinational oil company (MOC) is a critical factor for sustaining cultural tourism. The findings suggest increased female participation in General Memorandum of Understanding (GMoU) interventions of MOC and the need to pay close attention to which extent the participation of rural women in the GMoU projects may be limited by cultural and traditional obstacles. |
| Keywords: | Gender inequality, sustainable cultural tourism, corporate social responsibility, multinational oil companies, logit model, Nigeria |
| JEL: | F20 H20 M14 O11 |
| Date: | 2019–01 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:aby:wpaper:19/042&r=all |