| Abstract: |
Even if local policymakers increasingly claim that tourism is one of the key
factors of future economic development for the French small island La Réunion,
international tourist arrivals are observed to be locked in a stagnation phase
since the beginning of the 2000s. Starting from this stylised fact, this
article aims to study if this phenomenon results from major external events
hurting this economy regularly. Next, by using univariate unit root procedures
with structural breaks, we test for evidence of permanent or transitory
effects of external shocks on international tourist inflows (total, by source
markets, and by category) over the period 1981-2015. Finally, the empirical
analysis allow us to reject the null of a unit root. Then, stagnation of
tourism arrivals to La Réunion is not due to exogenous shocks but probably
results from endogenous impediments within the domestic tourism industry and
unsuitable public policies. |