nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2018‒12‒24
four papers chosen by
Laura Vici
Università di Bologna

  1. Forecasting Tourist Arrivals with Google Trends and Mixed Frequency Data By Havranek, Tomas; Zeynalov, Ayaz
  2. Study on The Impact of Socio-Economic Crisis on Greek Wellness Tourists’ Spending Behavior By Tavlikou, Evangelia; Assimakopoulos, Costas
  3. Revisiting Employee - Guest Interactions in Hotels: An Analysis of Critical Incidents By Yilmaz, Özgür Devrim
  4. Cross-temporal coherent forecasts for Australian tourism By Nikolaos Kourentzes; George Athanasopoulos

  1. By: Havranek, Tomas; Zeynalov, Ayaz
    Abstract: In this paper, we examine the usefulness of Google Trends data in predicting monthly tourist arrivals and overnight stays in Prague during the period between January 2010 and December 2016. We offer two contributions. First, we analyze whether Google Trends provides significant forecasting improvements over models without search data. Second, we assess whether a high-frequency variable (weekly Google Trends) is more useful for accurate forecasting than a low-frequency variable (monthly tourist arrivals) using Mixed-data sampling (MIDAS). Our results stress the potential of Google Trends to offer more accurate prediction in the context of tourism: we find that Google Trends information, both two months and one week ahead of arrivals, is useful for predicting the actual number of tourist arrivals. The MIDAS forecasting model that employs weekly Google Trends data outperforms models using monthly Google Trends data and models without Google Trends data.
    Keywords: Google trends,mixed-frequency data,forecasting,tourism
    JEL: C53 L83
    Date: 2018
  2. By: Tavlikou, Evangelia; Assimakopoulos, Costas
    Abstract: As most of the sectors of the world economy, tourism has also been affected by the global economic crisis and the resulting social redeployment. This global socio-economic situation, since 2010, has exerted additional pressure on the mental health and physical condition of people who are increasingly looking for new ways of relaxation and rejuvenation. The present study aims to investigate the impact of the current socio-economic crisis on the behavior and attitude of Greek wellness tourists. Quantitative research was conducted using a structured questionnaire on a sample size of 452 wellness tourists in totally 10 spas at Crete, Kos, Lefkada and Thessaloniki. The survey compared the spending behavior of respondents before 2010 and today. The findings of the survey show that although the behavior of Greeks as consumers is being negatively affected by the economic downturn, there is positive intention to continue using and spending on wellness services. In addition, results indicate the existence of positive attitude towards wellness tourism as a means of health promotion and enhancement. Proposals for further research are suggested.
    Keywords: wellness tourism; consumer behavior; socio-economic crisis
    JEL: A14 H12 L83
    Date: 2018–01–12
  3. By: Yilmaz, Özgür Devrim
    Abstract: The study was conducted to find out the positive and/or negative effects that hotel employees may have upon hotel guests’ experiences during their stay. Using the critical incident technique (CIT), data were obtained from 105 guests (a total of 174 incidents) staying in two different 5-star hotels that have similar characteristics in terms of type, price, ownership and concept in Bodrum, Turkey. The incidents were primarily categorized as positive and negative and afterward the incidents from two categories were compared to each other in terms of three main process of hotel accommodation as check-in, accommodation and check-out. Despite the fact that most hotels currently place emphasis on employee-guest interactions –under the concept of service quality or customer satisfaction-, the findings revealed that there were still a number of negative incidents that caused customer dissatisfaction and managerial implications were needed in hotels to minimize negative incidents and maximize the positive ones.
    Keywords: Critical incidents; Hotel; Employee-guest interaction; Employee behavior; Customer satisfaction
    JEL: J24 L8 L83 O15
    Date: 2018–03–07
  4. By: Nikolaos Kourentzes; George Athanasopoulos
    Abstract: Key to ensuring a successful tourism sector is timely policy making and detailed planning. National policy formulation and strategic planning requires long-term forecasts at an aggregate level, while regional operational decisions require short-term forecasts, relevant to local tourism operators. For aligned decisions at all levels, supporting forecasts must be `coherent', that is they should add up appropriately, across relevant demarcations (e.g., geographical divisions or market segments) and also across time. We propose an approach for generating coherent forecasts across both cross-sections and planning horizons for Australia. This results in significant improvements in forecast accuracy with substantial decision making benefits. Coherent forecasts help break intra- and inter-organisational information and planning silos, in a data driven fashion, blending information from different sources.
    Keywords: cross-sectional aggregation, temporal aggregation, forecast combinations, spatial correlations.
    Date: 2018

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