| By: |
Chia-Lin Chang (Department of Applied Economics, Department of Finance, National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan);
Hui-Kuang Hsu (Department of Finance, National Pingtung University, Taiwan);
Michael McAleer (National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan; University of Sydney Business School, Australia; Erasmus University Rotterdam, The Netherlands;Complutense University of Madrid, Spain; Yokohama National University, Japan) |
| Abstract: |
The paper uses monthly data on tourism related factors from April 2005 - June
2016 for Taiwan that applies factor analysis and Chang’s (2015) novel
approach for constructing a tourism financial indicator, namely the Tourism
Financial Conditions Index (TFCI). The TFCI is an adaptation and extension of
the widely-used Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) and Financial Conditions Index
(FCI) to tourism stock data. However, the method of calculation of the TFCI is
different from existing methods of constructing the MCI and FCI in that the
weights are estimated empirically. The empirical findings show that TFCI is
statistically significant using the estimated conditional mean of the tourism
stock index returns (RTS). Granger Causality tests show that TFCI shows strong
feedback on RTS. An interesting insight is that the empirical results show a
significant negative correlation between F1_visistors and RTS, implying that
tourism authorities might promote travel by the “rich†, and not only on
inbound visitor growth. The use of market returns on the tourism stock
sub-index as the sole indicator of the tourism sector, as compared with the
general activity of economic variables on tourism stocks, is shown to provide
an exaggerated and excessively volatile explanation of tourism financial
conditions. |
| Keywords: |
Monetary Conditions Index; Financial Conditions Index; Model-based Tourism Financial Conditions Index; Unbiased Estimation |
| JEL: |
B41 E44 E47 G32 |
| Date: |
2017–08–04 |
| URL: |
http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:tin:wpaper:20170071&r=tur |