nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2016‒07‒16
three papers chosen by
Laura Vici
Università di Bologna

  1. Does Tourism-led Growth Hypothesis Exist in Pakistan? A Fresh look from Combine Cointegration and Causality Approach with Structural Breaks. By Ahad, Muhammad
  2. The impact of migration on tourism demand: evidence from Japan By Etzo, Ivan
  3. Gambling Tourism and Economic Development: Some lessons from Macao By Metaxas, Theodore; Folinas, Sotiris

  1. By: Ahad, Muhammad
    Abstract: Purpose: The prime objective of this study is to re-investigate the tourism-led growth hypothesis by accommodating structural breaks over the annual period 1988-2014 for Pakistan. This study used two measure of tourism development -tourist arrivals and tourism expenditure per capita to explore the relationship between tourism and economic growth. Methodology: The unit root problem is tested by applying Ng-Perron unit root test. However, Perron, (1997) single structural break and Clemente et al. (1998) double structural breaks unit root tests also employed. To examine the long relationship between tourism and economic growth, we applied newly invented Bayer-Hanck, (2013) combine cointegration approach in the presence of structural breaks. The robustness of combine cointegration approach is tested by Johansen cointegration technique. Further, VECM Granger causality is used to understand the direction of causality during structural shocks. Findings: We found all data series stationary at first difference. The empirics confirm the existence of long run relationship between underlying variables in the presence of structural breaks. The results of VECM Granger causality predicted unidirectional causality running from tourism development (tourist arrives) to economic growth in long run as well as short run when. But, bidirectional relationship between tourism development (tourism expenditure) and economic growth has found. This validates the tourism-led growth for Pakistan. Recommendations: Policy makers should focus on development of tourism industry to enhance economic growth for Pakistan.
    Keywords: Tourism, Economic Growth, Structural Breaks, Combine Cointegration, VECM Granger causality, Pakistan.
    JEL: L83
    Date: 2016
  2. By: Etzo, Ivan
    Abstract: This paper investigates the impact of migration on both inbound and outbound Japanese tourism flows during the period 2000-2013. The results reveal that the stock of immigrants in Japan represents an important determinant of inbound tourism flows. The effect remains positive and statistically significant after disaggregating the flows by purpose of visit, though the impact is higher for “holiday” than for “business” arrivals. The number of Japanese residing abroad does not affect the inbound tourist arrivals. On the contrary, they exert a noticeable effect on outbound tourism flows, whilst immigrants in Japan seem not to have a significant effect.
    Keywords: outbound tourism, inbound tourism, migration, Japan
    JEL: F22 L83
    Date: 2016–06
  3. By: Metaxas, Theodore; Folinas, Sotiris
    Abstract: This article aims to explore and document the relationship between forms of alternative tourism and economic development. More specifically, the subject of our investigation will be whether a small national economy is able to rely wholly or largely on tourist flows as a source of income and even to invest in a single type of tourism. Alternative forms of tourism, gaming tourism as well as the features of territorially limited countries and how they are linked to the case of Macau will also be objects of study and annotation. With the process of text production through scientific articles, statistical data and reliable data bases, we will attempt to 'cover' the investigated relationship as well as the stemming questions.
    Keywords: tourism, gaming tourism, development, growth, small countries
    JEL: O1 O18 O21 R58
    Date: 2016

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