nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2015‒12‒01
two papers chosen by
Laura Vici
Università di Bologna

  1. Forecasting Tourist Arrivals Using Origin Country Macroeconomics By Chatziantoniou, Ioannis; Degiannakis, Stavros; Eeckels, Bruno; Filis, George
  2. The Fundamental Equation in Tourism Finance By Michael McAleer

  1. By: Chatziantoniou, Ioannis; Degiannakis, Stavros; Eeckels, Bruno; Filis, George
    Abstract: This study utilizes both disaggregated data and macroeconomic indicators in order to examine the importance of the macroeconomic environment of origin countries for analysing destinations’ tourist arrivals. In particular, it is the first study to present strong empirical evidence that both of these features in tandem provide statistically significant information of tourist arrivals in Greece. The forecasting exercises presented in our analysis show that macroeconomic indicators conducive to better forecasts are mainly origin country-specific, thus highlighting the importance of considering the apparent sharp national contrasts among origin countries when investigating domestic tourist arrivals. Given the extent of the dependency of the Greek economy on tourism income, but also, given the perishable nature of the tourist product itself, results have important implications for policy makers in Greece.
    Keywords: Tourist arrivals forecasting, seasonal ARIMA, Diebold-Mariano test, disaggregated data, macroeconomic indicators.
    JEL: C22 C53 F19 O10
    Date: 2015–11–15
  2. By: Michael McAleer (National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan; Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands; Complutense University of Madrid, Spain)
    Abstract: The purpose of the paper is to present the fundamental equation in tourism finance that connects tourism research to empirical finance and financial econometrics. The energy industry, which includes, oil, gas and bio-energy fuels, together with the tourism industry, are two of the most important industries in the world today in terms of employment and generating income. The primary purpose in attracting domestic and international tourists to a country, region or city is to maximize tourism expenditure. The paper will concentrate on daily tourism expenditure, regardless of whether such data might be readily available. If such data are not available, a practical method is presented to calculate the appropriate data.
    Keywords: Tourism research; tourism finance; growth in tourism; returns on tourism; volatility; fundamental equation; empirical finance; financial econometrics.
    JEL: C22 C32 C58 G32
    Date: 2015–11–23

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