nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2015‒01‒03
three papers chosen by
Laura Vici
Università di Bologna

  1. Weather and Tourism Demand in the Summer Months across Austrian provinces By Martin Falk
  2. Quality of Life and Tourism-Related Perceptions among Residents: Evidence from Lake Engure Area, Latvia By Guido Sechi; Zaiga Krisjane; Maris Berzins; Daina Vinklere
  3. Network Effects of Air Travel Demand, Second Version By Yanhao Wei

  1. By: Martin Falk
    Abstract: The relationship between weather and tourism demand has been widely investigated for different locations and for different seasons. Although weather and climate conditions are widely seen as an important factor for tourism, relative little is known about their effects over a longer time period. Given that about 50% of tourists come to Austria during summer months May to September, favourable summer weather can play a very important role in determining the number of visitor nights and arrivals. The relationship between weather and tourism is particularly important for regions with moderate climate conditions. It is expected that summer tourism in these location will benefit from global warming (Nicholls and Amelung 2008). The aim of the paper is to investigate the impact of weather on visitor nights using regional data for Austria at the level of provinces for the period 1974-2012. In particular, we distinguish between the capital region Vienna and eight other provinces. The econometric model is based on the seemingly unrelated regression method which makes it possible to account for the cross-regional correlations. We also allow for lagged effects of weather. We provide separate estimates of the relationship between visitor nights and weather for each province. Global warming has lead to new interest in the weather-tourism relationship. More and more is being published on the relationship between weather patterns and tourism demand (see Becken, 2013; Gössling et al., 2012; Kaján & Saarinen, 2013 for surveys). A general finding of the literature is that there is a significant relationship between domestic tourism demand and weather conditions, while foreign (inbound and outbound) tourism is only affected by weather conditions with a 1-year (or -season) lag. Few studies have investigated the impact of summer weather on tourism demand in regions with cooler climate conditions and moderate temperatures, which are likely to gain from climate change (Serquet & Rebetez, 2011 is an exception). Austria is an interesting country case to study with a long tradition in summer alpine tourism. However, summer tourism in the Alps has suffered from a steady decline starting from the 1970s and has now stabilized. Results using the seemingly unrelated regression model show that sunshine duration and temperatures have a significant and positive impact on both domestic and German tourism demand for most of the provinces. However, sunshine and temperatures affect German overnight stays only with a one year lag. Weather effects are larger in August and September than in June and July. Overall, the impact of weather is highest in Salzburg and Upper Austria where current and lagged sunshine or temperature can explain between 25 and 50 percent of the variation of overnight stays. In contrast, weather conditions are not relevant for visitor nights in Vienna.
    Keywords: tourism demand; weather factors; seemingly unrelated regression modelm; regions
    JEL: R11 L83
    Date: 2014–11
  2. By: Guido Sechi; Zaiga Krisjane; Maris Berzins; Daina Vinklere
    Abstract: Tourism management literature in the last decades has paid much attention to the study of resident perceptions and attitudes towards tourism development. Results of empirical research have variously linked such perceptions and attitudes to issues of socio-economic growth and socio-environmental impact. This leads to different and often contradictory attitudes, sometimes strongly depending on geographical contexts and specificities, and generally linked to perceived trade-offs between economic and infrastructural development opportunities on the one hand, and socio-environmental effects (in terms, for instance, of crime levels, traffic, pollution) on the other. However, studies attempting at investigating the structure of perception building and interdependencies in a deep way have been rather few, the majority of them being based on simple regression analyses, not fully able to grasp the complexity of such issues and evidence causal chains. Besides, the role of attitudes and perceptions about quality of life have not been adequately taken into account as factors behind tourism perceptions. The present paper is an attempt at overcoming some of these shortcomings, by approaching the issue of tourism perceptions among residents through a path analysis and structural equation modelling-based approach, investigating the impact of residence place quality perception on tourism-related attitudes. In our model, the intermediate key endogenous variable is the perception of tourism as source of possible economic benefits, supposed both to be affected by quality of life assessment and to affect positive and/or negative perceptions related to life change opportunities and risks, and impact on the environment. The analysis is carried out among residents of Lake Engure area, a rural region characterized by recent tourism increase, located in western Latvia. Results are tested against several socio-demographic and socio-spatial control variables, with a specific focus on differences between coast and hinterland inhabitants. Age, gender, employment status, and years of residence in the area are also taken into account. Results support to a large extent the relation between quality of life assessment and perceptions towards tourism, and the complex pattern of relations among perceptions. Besides, they also evidence a very high sensitivity to control variables, in particular those related to the coast / hinterland divide, employment, and place-rootedness.
    JEL: L83 R10 C01 D03 D83
    Date: 2014–11
  3. By: Yanhao Wei (Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania)
    Abstract: As demand increases, airline carriers often increase flight frequencies to meet the larger flow of passengers in their networks, which reduces passengers' schedule delays and attracts more demand. Focusing on the “network effects", this paper develops and estimates a structural model of the U.S. airline industry. Compared with previous studies, the model implies higher cost estimates, which seem more consistent with the unprofitability of the industry; below-marginal-cost pricing becomes possible and appears on many routes. I also study airline mergers and find that the network effects can be the main factor underlying their profitability.
    Keywords: Network effects, airline networks, differentiated product markets, airlines, merger
    JEL: L13 L93 D62 C31
    Date: 2014–09–25

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