nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2014‒12‒24
three papers chosen by
Laura Vici
Università di Bologna

  1. Determinants of international tourist choices in Italian provinces: a joint demand-supply approach with spatial effects By Eleonora Lorenzini; Maurizio Pisati; Tomaso Pompili
  2. Economic Valuation of the Damage to Tourism Benefits by Eastern Japan Great Earthquake Disaster By Katsuhito Nohara
  3. Modelización econométrica de la demanda de turistas británicos a España By Marcos Álvarez-Díaz; Manuel González-Gómez; María Soledad Otero-Giráldez; Ana Belén Trigo Iglesias

  1. By: Eleonora Lorenzini; Maurizio Pisati; Tomaso Pompili
    Abstract: Research trying to explain tourism flows and expenditures for different destinations has so far adopted either a tourism-demand or a tourism-supply approach. Whereas on the one hand the former ignores the product specificities (Papatheodorou, 2001), the latter, on the other, fails to take into account the characteristics of the tourist origin markets. In recent years attempts to merge the two views have come from scholars using spatial econometric techniques, i.e. origin-destination models (O-D), which have been able to consider both effects simultaneously (Marrocu and Paci, 2013; Massidda and Etzo, 2012). This paper contributes to this literature by investigating the determinants of the expenditures of foreign tourists in 103 Italian provinces (NUTS 3). We depart from the previous literature in that our dependent variable is not tourist flows but foreign tourist expenditures. This variable, recently made available by the Bank of Italy for the years 1997-2012, is more informative than tourist flows in that it captures not only the number of arrivals but also their contribution to a destination's GDP. The observations of our cross-section database reflect the tourist expenditure for each Italian province from each of the 20 highest spending countries of origin, accounting for 85% of total receipts. Without having to use O-D models, we will disentangle the effects of both demand and supply variables on a province's tourism exports. Among the former ones, per capita GDP levels at origin and a measure of relative price will be considered. Among the latter ones: per capita GDP levels at destination and supply variables such as capacity constraints of tourist accomodations; tourism and transport infrastructures; crime, cultural and environmental capital, climate, settlement structure typology, etc. Moreover, we will take into account the role of the distance between origin and destination, which is also a proxy of transportation costs, and the possible spillover effects originating by the supply variables in contiguous provinces. Following Halleck Vega and Elhorst (2013), spatial effects will be analysed using the spatial lag of some of the independent variables and by parameterizing the spatial matrix W. Moreover, we will use a Poisson pseudo-maximum-likelihood method as suggested by Santos Silva and Tenreyro (2006) since this method is robust to different patterns of heteroskedasticity and provides a natural way to deal with zeros in trade data.
    JEL: C31 L83 R12
    Date: 2014–11
  2. By: Katsuhito Nohara
    Abstract: Main purpose of this study is to evaluate the lost benefits of tourism by harmful rumors or misinformation proceeded from Higashi Nihon Daishinsai, literally Eastern Japan Great Earthquake Disaster on 11 March 2011. Its great earthquake disaster has done a lot of damages to many people, buildings, key infrastructures, and regional economy. Most regions have recovered from a devastating earthquake, but tourism industry of Tohoku region which include Aomori, Akita Iwate, Yamagata, Miyagi and Fukushima prefecture is still stagnant. There is little famous sight-seeing area at Pacific coast of Tohoku region where was hit by a gigantic earthquake and subsequently by a giant tsunami. Despite most famous tourist spots of Tohoku region, for example Hiraizumi where was registered as a World Heritage Site in 2001, Naruko spring, Aizu and so on, are located an inland area of the northeastern part of Japan, total tourists who visited Tohoku region decreased little by little after that disaster. This main reason is harmful rumors or misinformation brought about serious accidents at the Fukushima Nuclear Power Plants No.1 of Tokyo Electric Power Company. Although more than three years have already passed and the number of tourist who visit to Tohoku region recovered the previous level in some area, there still remains significant damage in some area due to the tourist's concern of radioactive pollution despite of the area are not actually polluted at all. This is so called the economical damages caused by harmful rumors or misinformation. In Fukushima, the slump in travel demand is in a terrible state because of harmful rumors or misinformation. Tourism industry is very important for Fukushima because the annual amount of tourism consumption (287,663,000,000yen) exceeds the annual amount of gross agricultural output (233,000,000,000yen) and the shipment value of food (278,200,000,000yen) in 2010. Therefore, this study applies to Travel Cost Method- Contingent Behavior (TCM-CB) which is capable of evaluating impact for benefits by changing environmental quality. Specifically, this study estimates the hypothetical travel demand function if the accident of Fukushima Nuclear Power Plants No.1 is not occurred and calculates lost tourism benefits due to harmful rumors or misinformation by comparing that derived hypothetical demand function with actual travel demand function. Then the author suggests that simplified monetary compensation system which makes up for lost tourism benefits should be introduced to certain areas in Fukushima.
    JEL: Q51 Q54
    Date: 2014–11
  3. By: Marcos Álvarez-Díaz; Manuel González-Gómez; María Soledad Otero-Giráldez; Ana Belén Trigo Iglesias
    Abstract: A pesar de la importancia del turismo internacional para la economía española, este sector ha sido muy poco estudiado. Es por esta razón que el principal objetivo de nuestro estudio es el de construir un modelo econométrico robusto que nos permita (i) conocer las variables más importantes que expliquen la demanda de turistas británicos a España, y (ii) cuantificar los impactos de estas variables sobre la demanda. Para este propósito seguimos un procedimiento de modelización econométrica basado en tres etapas. En la primera de ellas investigamos si existe una relación a largo plazo entre la demanda de turismo y un conjunto de variables explicativas económicas. En segundo lugar, modelizamos esta relación a largo plazo en donde también incluimos los efectos de algunos eventos especiales. Finalmente, ofrecemos una estimación puntual y por intervalo de los impactos de estos efectos sobre el turismo británico. La estimación por intervalo fue llevada a cabo utilizando un método eficiente denominado bootstrapping. ABSTRACT In spite of the importance of international tourism for the Spanish economy, this sector has been scarcely studied. It is for this reason that this study aims to construct a robust econometric model that allows us (i) to know the most important variables to explain the British demand for tourism to Spain, and (ii) to quantify the impacts of these variables on the demand. For this purpose, we follow a three-step modeling procedure. First, we find out if there is a long-run relationship between tourism demand and a set of economic explanatory variables. Second, we model such long-run relationship where we include the effect of some special events. Third, we not only study the effect of these variables, but also we offer a point and interval estimation of their effects. The interval estimation is done by using an efficient method called bootstrapping.
    Keywords: Modelización de la Demanda Turística, Modelo ARDL, Bootstrap, Tourism Demand Modelling, ARDL Model
    JEL: L83 C22 C51 C52
    Date: 2014–11

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