nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2014‒08‒02
three papers chosen by
Laura Vici
Università di Bologna

  1. A Tourism Financial Conditions Index By Chia-Lin Chang; Hui-Kuang Hsu; Michael McAleer
  2. International tourism in Italy (1997-2012) By Andrea Alivernini; Emanuele Breda; Eva Iannario
  3. The influence of ‘touristification’ on Berlin’s real estate market By Wellner, Kristin; Landau, Friederike

  1. By: Chia-Lin Chang (Department of Applied Economics, Department of Finance, National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan); Hui-Kuang Hsu (Department of Finance and Banking National Pingtung Institute of Commerce, Taiwan); Michael McAleer (Econometric Institute, Erasmus School of Economics, Erasmus University Rotterdam and Tinbergen Institute, The Netherlands, Department of Quantitative Economics, Complutense University of Madrid, and Institute of Economic Research, Kyoto University.)
    Abstract: The paper uses monthly data on financial stock index returns, tourism stock sub-index returns, effective exchange rate returns and interest rate differences from April 2005 – August 2013 for Taiwan that applies Chang’s (2014) novel approach for constructing a tourism financial indicator, namely the Tourism Financial Conditions Index (TFCI). The TFCI is an adaptation and extension of the widely-used Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) and Financial Conditions Index (FCI) to tourism stock data. However, the method of calculation of the TFCI is different from existing methods of constructing the MCI and FCI in that the weights are estimated empirically. The empirical findings show that TFCI is estimated quite accurately using the estimated conditional mean of the tourism stock index returns. The new TFCI is straightforward to use and interpret, and provides interesting insights in predicting the current economic and financial environment for tourism stock index returns that are based on publicly available information. In particular, the use of market returns on the tourism stock index as the sole indicator of the tourism sector, as compared with the general activity of economic variables on tourism stocks, is shown to provide an exaggerated and excessively volatile explanation of tourism financial conditions.
    Keywords: Monetary Conditions Index, Financial Conditions Index, Model-based Tourism Financial Conditions Index, Unbiased Estimation.
    JEL: B41 E44 E47 G32
    Date: 2014–01
  2. By: Andrea Alivernini (Bank of Italy); Emanuele Breda (Bank of Italy); Eva Iannario (Bank of Italy)
    Abstract: The Bank of Italy conducts a sample survey on international tourism at the country’s main border crossings for balance-of-payments and analysis purposes. Each year a sample of international travellers (both foreigners in Italy and Italians abroad) who have crossed Italy’s borders is interviewed; counting operations are carried out in order to determine the size of the reference population. Between 1997 and 2012 international tourism produced a surplus in Italy’s balance of payments. Nonetheless, the tourism balance fell from 1.1 to 0.6 per cent of GDP, mainly due to the fall in real terms of foreigners’ expenditure in Italy, whereas expenditure by Italians abroad remained practically unchanged as a share of GDP. As a result, the market share of Italian receipts decreased from 6.8 per cent in 1997 to 3.7 per cent in 2012. During the first years of the recent crisis, Italian international tourism receipts fell at a slower pace than those of its two main European competitors, France and Spain; but in 2011-12 their recovery was faster.
    Keywords: international tourism expenditure, market shares, sample surveys
    JEL: F14 L83
    Date: 2014–07
  3. By: Wellner, Kristin; Landau, Friederike
    Abstract: Real estate markets are influenced by diverse factors from both the supply and demand side. One influential dimension of real estate developments is tourism. On the one hand, the rising attractiveness of a city or region leads to changing configurations in the services and retail industry in order to consider tourists’ consumption and leisure practices. On the other hand, the real estate market is affected by an influx of tourists, aiming at accommodating the various needs of tourists. Berlin, which has remarkably risen as tourist destination in the past years, now ranking third after Paris and London in Europe, is affected by tourism in various ways: the hotel and catering industry is expanding, especially in the low budget travelling sector (hostels etc.), sometimes rivalling previous usages of the city space. With an estimated number of over 12,000 vacation rentals, many Berlin tourists stay in apartments, which were formerly regular apartments on the rental market. This practice of ‘authentic living’ creates more scarcity of affordable rent space in the city. The present paper discusses the concept of ‘touristification’, partially seen as side effect of gentrification, and its influences on the development of rent prices, modernization efforts and tenant structures. We are investigating the short- and long-term implications for both property owners, looking at higher short-term gains by renting to tourists, and tenants’ perspectives, facing higher pressure on their rents.To this point, the concept of ‘touristification’ has not received much scholarly analysis. Being present in popular discourse in Berlin’s city-specific political debates, the term is commonly used, however weakly defined. With the present research, we seek to conceptualize what phenomena the term ‘touristification’ seeks to describe and in what ways ‘touristification’ has an impact on real estate prices, on the housing market for property owners, as well as national and international tenants. In the present paper, we will delineate research questions and preliminary hypotheses on this very current topic. Applying a mixed-methods approach of real estate know-how and social sciences methodologies, we will present our interdisciplinary research design. We will give insight into the study design, which brings together perspectives on the (perceived and physical) influences of tourism on Berlin neighbourhoods from property owners, tenants and tourists.
    Date: 2014

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