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on Tourism Economics |
| By: | Chia-Lin Chang (National Chung Hsing University, Taiwan); Hui-Kuang Hsu (National Pingtung Institute of Commerce, Taiwan); and Michael McAleer (National Tsing Hua University, Taiwan; Erasmus University Rotterdam, the Netherlands; Complutense University of Madrid, Spain) |
| Abstract: | The paper uses monthly data on financial stock index returns, tourism stock sub-index returns, effective exchange rate returns and interest rate differences from April 2005 – August 2013 for Taiwan that applies Chang’s (2014) novel approach for constructing a tourism financial indicator, namely the Tourism Financial Conditions Index (TFCI). The TFCI is an adaptation and extension of the widely-used Monetary Conditions Index (MCI) and Financial Conditions Index (FCI) to tourism stock data. However, the method of calculation of the TFCI is different from existing methods of constructing the MCI and FCI in that the weights are estimated empirically. The empirical findings show that TFCI is estimated quite accurately using the estimated conditional mean of the tourism stock index returns. The new TFCI is straightforward to use and interpret, and provides interesting insights in predicting the current economic and financial environment for tourism stock index returns that are based on publicly available information. In particular, the use of market returns on the tourism stock index as the sole indicator of the tourism sector, as compared with the general activity of economic variables on tourism stocks, is shown to provide an exaggerated and excessively volatile explanation of tourism financial conditions. |
| Keywords: | Monetary Conditions Index, Financial Conditions Index, Model-based Tourism Financial Conditions Index, Unbiased Estimation |
| JEL: | B41 E44 E47 G32 |
| Date: | 2014–05–13 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20140060&r=tur |
| By: | Alexander Culiuc |
| Abstract: | The paper estimates the impact of macroeconomic supply- and demand-side determinants of tourism, one of the largest components of services exports globally, and the backbone of many smaller economies. It applies the gravity model to a large dataset comprising the full universe of bilateral tourism flows spanning over a decade. The results show that the gravity model explains tourism flows better than goods trade for equivalent specifications. The elasticity of tourism with respect to GDP of the origin (importing) country is lower than for goods trade. Tourism flows respond strongly to changes in the destination country’s real exchange rate, along both extensive (tourist arrivals) and intensive (duration of stay) margins. OECD countries generally exhibit higher elasticties with respect to economic variables (GDPs of the two economies, real exchange rate, bilateral trade) due to the larger share of business travel. Tourism to small islands is less sensitive to changes in the country’s real exchange rate, but more susceptible to the introduction/removal of direct flights. |
| Keywords: | Tourism;OECD;Pacific Island Countries;Small states;Bilateral trade;Real effective exchange rates;Economic models;International Tourism, Gravity model, Real exchange rate, Small islands |
| Date: | 2014–05–12 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:imf:imfwpa:14/82&r=tur |
| By: | Basiony, Abd Elazim; abd alla, Ghada; shaker El Sayed, Alaa |
| Abstract: | Abstract Service quality (SERVQUAL) has received a considerable attention in the last 50 years. While Service quality are well documented in the literature review, fewer studies have been investigates the relationship of Service quality with customer satisfaction and behaviour intention, and particularly in tourism. The aim of this paper is to examine the causal direct and indirect impact of service quality on customer satisfaction and behaviour intention. A total of 390 usable responses were obtained with a response rate of 71%. Structural equation modelling was used to analysis the current research data. The structural equation modelling results indicate that all the employed dimension to measure service quality (tangibility, reliability, responsiveness, assurance, and empathy) have direct influence on customer satisfaction and indirect impact on behaviour intention through customer satisfaction. These results help to clarify the mixed findings in the literature concerning the pattern of the causal relationship between service quality with customer satisfaction and behaviour intention. Finally, conclusions and limitations are outlined. |
| Keywords: | Key words: Service quality, customer satisfaction, behaviour intention , SERVPERF |
| JEL: | Z0 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:pra:mprapa:57164&r=tur |
| By: | Ruben van Loon (VU University Amsterdam); Tom Gosens (VU University Amsterdam); Jan Rouwendal (VU University Amsterdam) |
| Abstract: | Many cities are trying to attract tourists by investing in urban amenities. Cultural heritage is an important example and substantial investments are needed to keep ancient inner cities and characteristic monumental buildings in good shape. The costs of these policies are usually clear, the benefits are often much more difficult to assess. This paper attempts to fill part of this gap by studying the destination choices of urban recreation trips that have urban recreation as the main travel motive. We estimate a discrete choice model for destination choice that takes into account the potential importance of unobserved characteristics. The model allows us to compute the marginal willingness to travel for destinations offering more cultural heritage, which we measure as the area of the inner city that has a protected status because of the cultural heritage that is present there. |
| Keywords: | Cultural heritage, recreation, city marketing |
| JEL: | C31 D12 R12 R22 L83 |
| Date: | 2014–04–28 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:dgr:uvatin:20140049&r=tur |
| By: | Jungmittag, Andre |
| Abstract: | This paper applies combining forecasts of air travel demand generated from the same model but over different estimation windows. The combination approach used resorts to Pesaran and Pick (2011), but the empirical application is extended in several ways. The forecasts are based on a seasonal Box-Jenkins model (SARIMA), which is adequate to forecast monthly air travel demand with distinct seasonal patterns at the largest German airport Frankfurt am Main. Furthermore, forecasts with forecast horizons from one to twelve months-ahead, which are based on different average estimation windows, expanding windows and single rolling windows, are compared with baseline forecasts based on an expanding window of the observations after a structural break. The forecast exercise shows that the average window forecasts mostly outperform the alternative single window forecasts. -- |
| Keywords: | Air travel demand,Combination of forecasts,Estimation windows,Structural breaks |
| JEL: | C22 C53 L93 |
| Date: | 2014 |
| URL: | http://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:fhfwps:05&r=tur |