nep-tur New Economics Papers
on Tourism Economics
Issue of 2014‒06‒28
two papers chosen by
Laura Vici
Universita' di Bologna

  1. The impacts of temporary and anticipated tourism spending By Grant Allan; Patrizio Lecca; Kim Swales
  2. A spatially explicit national demand model for forest recreation in Ireland By Upton, Vincent; Ryan, Mary; O’Donoghue, Cathal

  1. By: Grant Allan (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde); Patrizio Lecca (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde); Kim Swales (Department of Economics, University of Strathclyde)
    Abstract: Part of the local economic impact of a major sporting event comes from the associated temporary tourism expenditures. Typically demand-driven Input-Output (IO) methods are used to quantify the impacts of such expenditures. However, IO modelling has specific weaknesses when measuring temporary tourism impacts; particular problems lie in its treatment of factor supplies and its lack of dynamics. Recent work argues that Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) analysis is more appropriate and this has been widely applied. Neglected in this literature however is an understanding of the role that behavioural characteristics and factor supply assumptions play in determining the economic impact of tourist expenditures, particularly where expenditures are temporary (ie of limited duration) and anticipated (ie known in advance). This paper uses a CGE model for Scotland in which agents can have myopic- or forward-looking behaviours and shows how these alternative specifications affect the timing and scale of the economic impacts from anticipated and temporary tourism expenditure. The tourism shock analysed is of a scale expected for the Commonwealth Games to be held in Glasgow in 2014. The model shows how "pre-shock" and "legacy" effects - impacts before and after the shock - arise and their quantitative importance. Using the forward-looking model the paper calculates the optimal degree of pre-announcement.
    Keywords: economic impact, CGE modelling, mega-events
    JEL: C68 L83 R11 R13
    Date: 2014–06
  2. By: Upton, Vincent; Ryan, Mary; O’Donoghue, Cathal
    Abstract: Forest benefits are now commonly understood through the ecosystem service framework. Recreational visits to forests, considered an important cultural service, have been the target of a significant proportion of the non-market valuation literature to date. Such models have evolved from relatively simple travel cost models to employing GIS to develop spatial demand models. Due to restrictions on accessing private land, forests are a particularly important recreational resource in Ireland as those which are publicly owned are accessible to the public and free to use. In addition, recent policies directed at private forests have included attempts to encourage owners to open their forests to the public. This study outlines the development of a spatially explicit recreation demand model for Ireland that describes how visitation differs across the population based on population characteristics and existing recreational resources. The model combines a zero-inflated negative binomial model of annual forest visits of a random sample of individuals with a simulated population model of Ireland and spatial data on household location. The results include an estimation of annual forest visitation and the development of a demand map that highlights where forest expansion could be targeted to maximise the recreational value of afforestation.
    Keywords: Forestry, Recreation demand, GIS, Environmental Economics and Policy, International Relations/Trade, Land Economics/Use, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods, Q51,
    Date: 2014–04

This nep-tur issue is ©2014 by Laura Vici. It is provided as is without any express or implied warranty. It may be freely redistributed in whole or in part for any purpose. If distributed in part, please include this notice.
General information on the NEP project can be found at For comments please write to the director of NEP, Marco Novarese at <>. Put “NEP” in the subject, otherwise your mail may be rejected.
NEP’s infrastructure is sponsored by the School of Economics and Finance of Massey University in New Zealand.